Opendoor: Q1 2026 Earnings - [Business Breakdowns, EP.245]
Today, we are breaking down Opendoor, and this is a unique episode. We recorded with Kaz Nejatian, the CEO of Opendoor, shortly after the company reported its first quarter 2026 earnings, and we covered both what is happening inside the business right now and how he is thinking about Opendoor from the seat after coming over from Shopify.
The core of the conversation is how Kaz frames the company. He argues that Opendoor is a market maker rather than a prop desk or an asset manager, and that the model only works when you optimize for velocity instead of spread. Buying lots of homes and selling them quickly gives Opendoor a live information advantage over the rest of the housing market that no other participant has, and that advantage compounds as the customer base broadens beyond people who simply need to move fast.
Please enjoy this Breakdown of Opendoor.
For the full show notes, transcript, and links to the best content to learn more, check out the episode page here.
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Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com).
Timestamps
(00:00:00) Welcome to Business Breakdowns
(00:02:24) Thesis Since Joining OPEN
(00:04:49) OPEN is a Market Maker, not a Prop Desk
(00:04:53) Opendoor's Advantages
(00:07:37) Spread vs. Velocity
(00:11:25) Customer Base
(00:13:16) Attachment Profit Pool
(00:15:45) Order of Product Rollouts
(00:18:47) Friction from Attachments?
(00:19:03) Lessons from Shopify: Solving for Friction
(00:21:45) Investing vs. Profitability Balance
(00:23:58) AI Inside Opendoor
Hard truths about building in the AI era | Keith Rabois (Khosla Ventures)
Keith Rabois was an early executive at PayPal (part of the famous PayPal Mafia), COO at Square, VP of Corporate Development at LinkedIn, and an early investor in Stripe, DoorDash, Airbnb, YouTube, Ramp, and Palantir. Currently he’s managing director at Khosla Ventures. Also, he hasn’t touched a computer since September 2010 (he does everything from an iPad).
In our in-depth conversation, Keith shares:
1. The barrels vs. ammunition hiring framework (and how to spot barrels)
2. Why talking to customers is actively harmful for consumer products
3. How to identify undiscovered talent
4. Why the PM role is dying
5. The three traits of the best-performing companies right now
6. The specific interview question he asks every senior candidate
7. Why CMOs (not engineers) are becoming the #1 consumer of tokens
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Episode transcript: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/hard-truths-about-building-in-the-ai-era
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Archive of all Lenny's Podcast transcripts: https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fo/yxi4s2w998p1gvtpu4193/AMdNPR8AOw0lMklwtnC0TrQ?rlkey=j06x0nipoti519e0xgm23zsn9&st=ahz0fj11&dl=0
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Where to find Keith Rabois:
• X: https://x.com/rabois
• LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/keith
• Website: https://www.khoslaventures.com
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Where to find Lenny:
• Newsletter: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com
• X: https://twitter.com/lennysan
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lennyrachitsky/
—
In this episode, we cover:
(00:00) Introduction to Keith Rabois
(01:59) Why Keith hasn’t used a computer since 2010
(04:52) The team you build is the company you build
(07:40) How Keith learned to identify talent at PayPal
(10:05) Tactics for getting better at hiring
(15:31) The barrels vs. ammunition framework
(18:52) What makes someone a barrel
(22:36) How to attract the best talent
(26:18) Building companies on undiscovered talent
(27:53) Why better performance requires more pressure
(32:36) Career advice in the age of AI
(35:14) The future of the product triad
(41:03) Why design and code are merging
(49:35) What practicing law taught Keith about entrepreneurship
(51:22) Contrarian takes on customer feedback
(1:02:33) Identifying great AI opportunities
(1:05:13) Advice for evaluating statrups
(1:12:36) Criticizing in public vs. private
(1:15:05) Failure corner
(1:17:29) Lightning round
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Referenced:
• Square: https://squareup.com
• Jack Dorsey on X: https://x.com/jack
• Head of Claude Code: What happens after coding is solved | Boris Cherny: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/head-of-claude-code-what-happens
• Simon Willison’s Weblog: https://simonwillison.net
• Vinod Khosla on X: https://x.com/vkhosla
• Peter Thiel on X: https://x.com/peterthiel
• Max Levchin on X: https://x.com/mlevchin
• David Sacks on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/davidoliversacks
• Tony Xu on X: https://x.com/t_xu
• David Sze on X: https://x.com/davidsze
• Faire: https://www.faire.com
• Max Rhodes on X: https://x.com/MaxRhodesOK
• Jeffrey Kolovson on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jeffreykolovson
• Uncapped | Comparative Advantages w/ Keith Rabois: https://www.khoslaventures.com/posts/uncapped-comparative-advantages-w-keith-rabois
• Lattice: https://lattice.com
• Taylor Francis on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/taylor-francis-4ba49640
• Building product at Stripe: craft, metrics, and customer obsession | Jeff Weinstein (Product lead): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/building-product-at-stripe-jeff-weinstein
• The art of hiring: insights from Khosla Ventures, Airbnb, Ramp and Traba: https://ramp.com/velocity/the-art-of-hiring-insights
• Eric Glyman: Seek out super individual contributors (ICs): https://ramp.com/velocity/the-art-of-hiring-insights#Eric-Glyman:-Seek-out-super-individual-contributors-(ICs)
• Eric Glyman on X: https://x.com/eglyman
• Mike Moore on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mike-moore-802223177
• Brian Chesky’s new playbook: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/brian-cheskys-contrarian-approach
• Why you should work much harder RIGHT NOW: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/03/why-you-should-work-much-harder-right-now.html
• Opendoor: https://www.opendoor.com
• The Craft of Early Stage Venture | Peter Fenton, General Partner at Benchmark | Uncapped with Jack Altman: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vRiblwiXt-Q
• Lovable: https://lovable.dev
• The rise of the professional vibe coder (a new AI-era job) | Lazar Jovanovic (Professional Vibe Coder): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/getting-paid-to-vibe-code
• Building Lovable: $10M ARR in 60 days with 15 people | Anton Osika (co-founder and CEO): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/building-lovable-anton-osika
• Marc Andreessen: The real AI boom hasn’t even started yet: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/marc-andreessen-the-real-ai-boom
• Jeremy Stoppelman on X: https://x.com/jeremys
• The design process is dead. Here’s what’s replacing it. | Jenny Wen (head of design at Claude): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/the-design-process-is-dead
• Andy Warhol: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andy_Warhol
• Curation and Algorithms: https://stratechery.com/2015/curation-and-algorithms
• Ernest Hemingway: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ernest_Hemingway
• William Shakespeare: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Shakespeare
• Evan Moore on X: https://x.com/evancharles
• Andrew Mason on X: https://x.com/andrewmason
• Read Taylor Swift’s Full Viral Speech After Record-Breaking Awards Sweep: https://www.newsweek.com/entertainment/read-taylor-swift-full-acceptance-speech-record-breaking-awards-sweep-11745941
• The Chainsmokers: Stories Behind the Songs, AI’s Impact on Music, and Venture Investing | Uncapped with Jack Altman: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9GMSC-2pYnw&list=PLtpH7YnTL8ihy0nR2BV32n5VkRtqlDAS1&index=16
• How to spot a top 1% startup early: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/how-to-spot-a-top-1-startup-early
• David Weiden on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/davidweiden
• Alfred Lin on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/linalfred
• Keith’s post about vertical integration on X: https://x.com/rabois/status/870673635375104000
• Jon Chu on X: https://x.com/jonchu
• Kanu Gulati on X: https://x.com/KanuGulati
• Rogo: https://rogo.ai
• Profound: https://www.tryprofound.com
• Basis: https://www.getbasis.ai
• Spellbook: https://www.spellbook.legal
• Roelof Botha on X: https://x.com/roelofbotha
• Delian Asparouhov on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/delian-asparouhov-87447742
• Lessons From Keith Rabois, Essay 1: How to become a Venture Capitalist: https://delian.io/lessons-1
• Velocity over everything: How Ramp became the fastest-growing SaaS startup of all time | Geoff Charles (VP of Product): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/velocity-over-everything-how-ramp
• Nuremberg on AppleTV+: https://tv.apple.com/us/movie/nuremberg/umc.cmc.3sg4y0382byupy76bfy7307k4
• Eight Sleep: https://www.eightsleep.com
• “NO DAYS OFF”—Bill Belichick on X: https://x.com/SNFonNBC/status/829036279069364224
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Recommended books:
• Creativity, Inc.: Overcoming the Unseen Forces That Stand in the Way of True Inspiration: https://www.amazon.com/Creativity-Inc-Overcoming-Unseen-Inspiration/dp/0812993012
• The Jordan Rules: The Inside Story of One Turbulent Season with Michael Jordan and the Chicago Bulls: https://www.amazon.com/Jordan-Rules-Sam-Smith/dp/0671796666
• The Upside of Stress: Why Stress Is Good for You, and How to Get Good at It: https://www.amazon.com/Upside-Stress-Why-Good-You/dp/1101982934
—
Production and marketing by https://penname.co/. For inquiries about sponsoring the podcast, email podcast@lennyrachitsky.com.
—
Lenny may be an investor in the companies discussed.
To hear more, visit www.lennysnewsletter.com
Keith Rabois: Israel, OpenAI, Opendoor, and DOGE
From politics to technology to real estate, Keith Rabois has bold predictions for America’s next decade.
In this conversation with Erik Torenberg, Keith breaks down why he believes the U.S. is entering a new economic expansion driven by AI, productivity, and sovereign technology. They discuss how AI could lift GDP growth to 5%, why sovereign AI projects are inevitable, and why America can “grow its way out” of debt.
Keith also shares his takes on Trump’s second term, the decline of legacy institutions, OpenAI’s dominance, the future of Google and Microsoft, and how startups like Ramp and Opendoor are rewriting the rules of fintech and housing.
Resources:
Follow Keith on X: https://x.com/rabois
Follow Alex on X: https://x.com/arampell
Stay Updated:
If you enjoyed this episode, be sure to like, subscribe, and share with your friends!
Find a16z on X: https://x.com/a16z
Find a16z on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16z
Listen to the a16z Podcast on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5bC65RDvs3oxnLyqqvkUYX
Listen to the a16z Podcast on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/a16z-podcast/id842818711
Follow our host: https://x.com/eriktorenberg
Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.
Stay Updated:
Find a16z on YouTube: YouTube
Find a16z on X
Find a16z on LinkedIn
Listen to the a16z Show on Spotify
Listen to the a16z Show on Apple Podcasts
Follow our host: https://twitter.com/eriktorenberg
Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.
Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
How to Build a Real Estate Marketplace - Kaz Nejatian, Opendoor CEO
Opendoor is trying to make it easier to buy a home. Kaz Nejatian just joined as CEO to help them succeed.
In this episode, a16z General Partners Alex Rampell and Erik Torenberg sit down with Kaz to cover all things real estate and marketplaces. They cover Kaz’s vision for Opendoor, the problem with copying the hedge fund model, how to build through economic downturns, and the importance of ambition and long-term thinking.
Resources:
Follow Kaz on X: https://x.com/CanadaKaz
Follow Alex on X: https://x.com/arampell
Stay Updated:
If you enjoyed this episode, be sure to like, subscribe, and share with your friends!
Resources:
Find a16z on X: https://x.com/a16z
Find a16z on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16z
Listen to the a16z Podcast on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5bC65RDvs3oxnLyqqvkUYX
Listen to the a16z Podcast on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/a16z-podcast/id842818711
Follow our host: https://x.com/eriktorenberg
Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.
Stay Updated:
Find a16z on YouTube: YouTube
Find a16z on X
Find a16z on LinkedIn
Listen to the a16z Show on Spotify
Listen to the a16z Show on Apple Podcasts
Follow our host: https://twitter.com/eriktorenberg
Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.
Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
Grok 4 Wows, The Bitter Lesson, Elon's Third Party, AI Browsers, SCOTUS backs POTUS on RIFs
(0:00) The Besties welcome Travis Kalanick and Keith Rabois!
(3:02) Travis on Pony.ai / Uber rumors and the state of Cloud Kitchens
(18:51) xAI launches Grok 4, learning "The Bitter Lesson" in AI
(40:36) How Grok can catch ChatGPT in usage, OpenAI's product excellence
(46:27) Perplexity and OpenAI building AI-native browsers and taking on Chrome
(58:01) Elon's "America Party": is now the right time for a third party, and could he make an impact in 2026?
(1:13:12) SCOTUS backs Trump over federal government RIF plans
Follow Keith:
https://x.com/rabois
Follow Travis:
https://x.com/travisk
Get The Besties All-In Tequila:
https://tequila.allin.com
Join us at the All-In Summit:
https://allin.com/summit
Summit scholarship application:
http://bit.ly/4kyZqFJ
Follow the besties:
https://x.com/chamath
https://x.com/Jason
https://x.com/DavidSacks
https://x.com/friedberg
Follow on X:
https://x.com/theallinpod
Follow on Instagram:
https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod
Follow on TikTok:
https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod
Follow on LinkedIn:
https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod
Intro Music Credit:
https://rb.gy/tppkzl
https://x.com/yung_spielburg
Intro Video Credit:
https://x.com/TheZachEffect
Referenced in the show:
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/26/technology/uber-travis-kalanick-self-driving-car-deal.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZW5fJikPmfM
https://grok.com
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_wTA90BYo30
https://techcrunch.com/2025/01/08/elon-musk-agrees-that-weve-exhausted-ai-training-data
https://x.com/ArtificialAnlys/status/1943166841150644622
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1943192643439337753
http://www.incompleteideas.net/IncIdeas/BitterLesson.html
https://x.com/chamath/status/1943177837956968499
https://techcrunch.com/2025/07/09/perplexity-launches-comet-an-ai-powered-web-browser
https://x.com/perplexity_ai/status/1942969263305671143
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1941584569523732930
https://polymarket.com/event/will-elon-register-the-america-party-by
https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/presidential-approval/highslows
https://news.gallup.com/poll/651278/support-third-political-party-dips.aspx
https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/02/implementing-the-presidents-department-of-government-efficiency-workforce-optimization-initiative
https://www.scotusblog.com/2025/07/supreme-court-allows-trump-administration-to-implement-plans-to-significantly-reduce-the-federal-workforce
https://www.afge.org/article/summary-of-afge-lawsuits-against-trump--how-litigation-works
https://cei.org/publication/10kc-2025-numbers-of-rules
https://www.netflix.com/tudum/articles/american-manhunt-osama-bin-laden-release-date-news
EP 137: Keith Rabois and Zach Weinberg Debate: Are Tariffs a Smart Economic Weapon?
Debate between Keith Rabois and Zach Weinberg on what tariffs are actually trying to accomplish. One core theme: Tariffs aren’t fully about “bringing back factories,” but rather a negotiation tool to eliminate foreign trade barriers - ultimately aiming to increase free trade, not restrict it.
We also got into:
- What each of them would do if they were in charge
- Whether the trade deficit is a meaningful metric or just a misunderstood talking point
- If tariffs could be part of an initiative to replace income tax — shifting toward a more consumption-based tax system
- If tariffs could successfully be used as a non-military tool to reduce drug supply to the US
- If there’s a major disconnect between the new administration’s rhetoric and the actual economic goals behind the policy
One of the deepest economic conversations from the show’s recent history — and a rare debate where both sides had real logic behind their views.
(00:00) Introduction and Host's Biases
(00:46) Keith's Perspective on Tariffs
(03:05) Zach's Perspective and Clarifying Questions
(05:14) Debating Tariff Strategies
(07:45) Economic Implications and Free Trade
(13:31) Trump's Tariff Policies and Goals
(16:57) Global Trade and Protectionism
(25:52) Final Thoughts on Tariffs and Trade
(29:16) Discussion on Trade Tariffs and Partners
(30:17) Impact of Tariffs on GDP and Debt
(31:20) Political Coalitions and Trade Policies
(32:00) Tariffs as Consumer Taxes
(33:30) Debate on Trade Deficit and Tariff Rates
(36:53) Regulatory Reforms and Economic Policies
(47:25) Fentanyl Crisis and Trade Negotiations
(51:06) Closing Remarks and Future Topics
Executive Producer: Rashad Assir
Producer: Leah Clapper
Mixing and editing: Justin Hrabovsky
Check out Unsupervised Learning, Redpoint's AI Podcast: https://www.youtube.com/@UCUl-s_Vp-Kkk_XVyDylNwLA
🎙 Listen to the show
Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-logan-bartlett-show/id1606770839
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About the Show
Logan Bartlett is a Software Investor at Redpoint Ventures - a Silicon Valley-based VC with $6B AUM and investments in Snowflake, DraftKings, Twilio, and Netflix. In each episode, Logan goes behind the scenes with world-class entrepreneurs and investors. If you're interested in the real inside baseball of tech, entrepreneurship, and start-up investing, tune in every Friday for new episodes.
20Product: Product Secrets Behind Uber and Opendoor | How AI Changes the Role of the PM & The Product Development Process | How to Hire the Best Product Teams & What No One Does That Everyone Should Do with Brian Tolkin
Brian Tolkin is the Head of Product @ Opendoor where he has spent the last 6 years and is responsible for product strategy and product and design teams. Before Opendoor, Brian spent an incredible 5 years at Uber through their wildest growth periods.
In Today's Episode with Brian Tolkin:
03:53 Brian's Journey at Uber: Launching China Pool
05:07 Product Lessons from Uber's China Launch
08:22 The Role of a PM in a Pre vs. Post AI World
10:16 Product Development Process in an AI World
17:43 The Importance of Simplification in Product Management
19:21 OKRs and Prioritization in Product Management
23:12 The Importance of Feedback Loops in Product Development
23:38 Evaluating Product Changes: User Adaptation vs. Bad Decisions
25:00 Balancing Gut Instinct and Data in Product Leadership
25:38 The Role of Simplicity in Product Design
27:02 Consensus vs. Dictatorial Product Leadership
27:54 Hiring for the Best Product Teams
31:33 How to do Effective Sprint Management
38:39 Quickfire Round: Insights and Advice
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois
(0:00) The Besties welcome Keith Rabois!
(4:01) Keith explains why he returned to Khosla Ventures, the differences between Founders Fund and Khosla, and his husband Jacob Helberg's role in Trump Admin
(13:09) Business acumen of Trump's cabinet and appointees, diversity of opinion
(25:59) Google's new quantum chip: potential impact on encryption, cryptography, and more
(43:50) Apple developing new server chip for AI inference, iOS flop, why its product culture is failing
(54:30) TikTok panics after appeals court upholds the "divest-or-ban" law, with a January 19th deadline
(1:03:55) State of Venture Capital, why Stripe is still private, thoughts on crypto
Follow the besties:
https://x.com/chamath
https://x.com/Jason
https://x.com/DavidSacks
https://x.com/friedberg
Follow Keith:
https://x.com/rabois
Follow on X:
https://x.com/theallinpod
Follow on Instagram:
https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod
Follow on TikTok:
https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod
Follow on LinkedIn:
https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod
Intro Music Credit:
https://rb.gy/tppkzl
https://x.com/yung_spielburg
Intro Video Credit:
https://x.com/TheZachEffect
Referenced in the show:
https://www.tiktok.com/@frankielapenna/video/7010077215576575238
https://www.axios.com/2024/12/06/trump-billionaires-cabinet-elon-musk
https://blog.google/technology/research/google-willow-quantum-chip
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-08449-y
https://research.google/blog/suppressing-quantum-errors-by-scaling-a-surface-code-logical-qubit
https://quantumai.google/roadmap
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hartmut_Neven
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Double-slit_experiment
https://www.discovery.com/science/Double-Slit-Experiment
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schr%C3%B6dinger%27s_cat
https://www.theinformation.com/articles/apple-is-working-on-ai-chip-with-broadcom?rc=pxkrxo
https://x.com/rabois/status/870673635375104000
https://www.amazon.com/Company-Giants-Conversations-Visionaries-Digital/dp/0070329656
https://www.cnn.com/2024/12/09/tech/bytedance-tiktok-halt-us-ban-intl/index.html
https://apnews.com/article/tiktok-us-ban-sale-china-congress-de12b4d22aa8095e62cb0982a6e62235
https://apnews.com/article/tiktok-ban-congress-bill-1c48466df82f3684bd6eb21e61ebcb8d
https://pitchbook.com/news/reports/q3-2024-pitchbook-nvca-venture-monitor
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/12/servicetitan-starts-trading-on-nasdaq-after-ipo.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/11/business/dealbook/ftc-trump-ferguson-khan.html
https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2021/6/15/antitrust
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-05/convertible-bond-arbs-are-making-microstrategy-wall-street-s-hottest-trade
20VC: Lessons from Mark Zuckerberg, Keith Rabois & Tobi Lütke | Why Remote is a Bad Idea for 90% of Companies | The Framework for How Shopify Builds Product Today | What Humans Get Wrong About Marriage and Kids with Kaz Nejatian, COO @ Shopify
Kaz Nejatian is Shopify's VP of Product & Chief Operating Officer. Before Shopify, Kaz founded Kash, a payment technology company which was acquired in 2017 by one of the largest fintech companies in the U.S. Kaz then served as Product Lead for Payments and Billing at Facebook, reducing the barriers for businesses in cash-dependent markets to purchase digital ads without a credit card.
In Today's Episode with Kaz Nejatian We Discuss:
1. Learnings From the Greats:
Mark Zuckerberg: What are Kaz's biggest lessons from working with Zuck? Why does Kaz believe Zuck is massively under-appreciated?
Keith Rabois: What are Kaz's biggest lessons from working with Keith? How did it change how he operates on a day to day basis?
Tobi Lütke: What have been Kaz's biggest lessons from working with Tobi? What has he changed most significantly since working with Tobi?
2. Shopify: Why We Build Our Own Tools:
Why does Kaz believe it is crucial for Shopify to build their own tools?
When did he doubt this strategy most? What caused him to question it?
Why does Kaz believe the Stripe <> Shopify partnership is the most important in business?
What is the role of a PM at Shopify?
Why do Shopify focus on how not what product is built?
3. Eight Truths The Startup World Gets Wrong:
Why does Kaz believe "The Lean Startup" has done more damage than any other startup book?
Why does Kaz believe that 90% of companies do not know what they want when they hire?
Why does Kaz believe the way that companies pay their staff is totally wrong?
Why does Kaz believe that most companies pick fights they do not need to pick?
Why does Kaz believe that for 90% of companies remote work is a terrible idea?
Why does Kaz believe that everyone in sales and marketing should be able to code?
Why does Kaz believe that married people with kids are more, not less productive?
Why does Kaz believe that we totally misunderstand divorce rates?
Lessons from scaling Uber and Opendoor | Brian Tolkin (Head of Product at Opendoor, ex-Uber)
Brian Tolkin is the Head of Product at Opendoor. Previously, he was one of the early employees at Uber, where he was instrumental in launching and growing UberPool, UberHop, and UberExpress and started one of the first product operations teams in tech. In our conversation, we dive into:
• How to enable product and ops to work well together
• How to run great product reviews
• How to make good decisions with limited data
• How he uses the jobs-to-be-done framework at Opendoor
• How to stay calm under pressure as a leader
• Wild stories from his time at Uber
• Challenges faced at Opendoor during the pandemic
• Much more
—
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Find the transcript and references at: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/scaling-uber-and-opendoor-brian-tolkin
—
Where to find Brian Tolkin:
• X: https://x.com/briantolkin
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/briantolkin/
—
Where to find Lenny:
• Newsletter: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com
• X: https://twitter.com/lennysan
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lennyrachitsky/
—
In this episode, we cover:
(00:00) Brian’s background
(02:14) Career beginnings at Uber
(02:49) Transitioning from product operations to product management
(06:47) Product and operations synergy
(10:00) Surge pricing at Uber
(12:18) Scaling challenges, and stories
(15:47) Opendoor and Covid adaptations
(25:38) Product reviews and Jobs to Be Done
(40:30) The challenges of A/B testing
(42:23) Increasing conviction in solutions
(44:33) Leveraging intuition in product decisions
(47:07) Partnering with Zillow
(52:55) Staying calm under pressure
(56:25) Finding the “kernel of truth” in product management
(01:00:21) Failure corner: Early days of Uber Pool
(01:06:11) Lightning round and final thoughts
—
Production and marketing by https://penname.co/. For inquiries about sponsoring the podcast, email podcast@lennyrachitsky.com.
—
Lenny may be an investor in the companies discussed.
This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.lennysnewsletter.com/subscribe
20VC: The Memo: Keith Rabois and Ramp's Eric Glyman on Behind The Scenes at The Best Run Private Company on the Planet; The Tools, Tips, Secrets and Process That Drive Efficiency
Eric Glyman is the Co-Founder and CEO of Ramp, America's fastest growing corporate card and finance automation platform. Under Eric's leadership, Ramp has raised more than $1 billion in financing, with a valuation of $8.1 billion. Prior to Ramp, Eric co-founded Paribus, a price-tracking app to help consumers save money (acquired by Capital One). Ramp recently raised another $150 million series D round co-led by Founders Fund and Khosla ventures, with a post-money valuation of $7.65 billion.
Keith Rabois is a Managing Director @ Khosla Ventures and one of the most respected venture investors of the last decade. Keith has led investments in Stripe, Faire, Ramp, Affirm and many more. Prior to Khosla Ventures, Keith was General Partner at Founders Fund, where he led investments for Ramp, Trade Republic, and Aven.
In Today's Episode with Eric Glyman and Keith Rabois We Discuss:
Behind Ramp's Partnership with Founders Fund & Khosla Ventures
How did the first Founders Fund deal come to be? How was the first meeting?
What does Keith mean when he says Ramp has the "secret sauce" to be successful?
What are 1-2 things Keith thinks Eric is world-class at? What are 1-2 things Eric thinks Keith is world-class at?
How did the latest Khosla deal come to happen?
Ramp: The Fastest Executing Company on the Planet.
How is Eric so good at executing at Ramp? What is his biggest advice to founders on speed of execution?
What are Eric's biggest challenges in the next 12 months at Ramp?
Why does Keith believe momentum is crucial for early stage startups? What are some easy ways founders can build momentum?
How does Eric think AI will accelerate Ramp and the world of finance?
Leadership Lessons From the Best Founders
What are Keith's biggest lessons from Brian Chesky @ Airbnb?
What did Keith learn from Jack Dorsey @ Square about leadership?
What does Eric think founders today should build? What should they not build?
What did Eric learn from Keith on how founders should measure time & progress?
Hiring & Team Management
How did Ramp build a solid talent team? What did they do differently?
Does Keith & Eric believe it is better to hire externally or promote internally? What is the right balance?
Does Keith agree founders should hire & get out the way or micromanage?
How many direct reports does Keith think is enough?
20VC Exclusive: Keith Rabois on Rejoining Khosla Ventures
Keith Rabois is a Managing Director @ Khosla Ventures and one of the most respected venture investors of the last decade. Keith has led investments in Stripe, Faire, Ramp, Affirm and many more. Just last week, Keith announced he would be rejoining Khosla from Founders Fund, where he spent an immensely successful 5 years as a General Partner. Prior to Founders Fund, Keith started his career at Khosla where he spent 6 years and led investments in DoorDash, Opendoor, Webflow and more.
In Today's Episode with Keith Rabois We Discuss:
1. The Decision to Rejoin Khosla Ventures:
Why did Keith decide to rejoin Khosla Ventures from Founders Fund?
What did Keith miss most that Khosla did, that Founders Fund did not?
How did Delian take the news?
2. Comparing Two Great Firms: Founders Fund vs Khosla Ventures:
Investing Style: How does Keith compare the investing styles when analyzing FF and KV?
Price Discipline: Which firm is more price-disciplined? Does price discipline even matter?
What are the single biggest mistakes Keith has made on price? How did it change how he invests?
Founder Type: What sort of founder would choose KV? What founder would choose FF?
How did the depth & quality of investment decision-making compare between KV and FF?
3. What It Takes To Win in Venture in 2024:
Liquidity: What have been Keith's biggest lessons on when is the right time to sell positions?
Capital Planning: What have been Keith's biggest lessons on the most effective use of reserves?
Why does Keith believe if you do not lose some deals as an investor, you are not competing for the right companies?
Khosla Ventures recently raised $3BN. How important is the ability to support companies across their lifetime in 2024 vs stage specific?
4. Where is The Best Place to Invest:
Why does Keith think seed is the best place to be investing today?
Why despite the better risk/reward profile, does Keith think Series A is not the best place to invest?
Does Keith believe we will see the return of growth investing in 2024?
What does Keith predict for the M&A market in 2024? Did Figma kill all activity?
When will the IPO windows open again? Why would Stripe go out this year?
5. Keith Rabois: AMA:
Why did Keith not want to start his own fund? Will he ever?
What have been Keith's biggest lessons from working with Vinod Khosla and Peter Thiel?
What were Keith's biggest lessons from Roelof Botha on what it takes to be an effective board member?
How does Keith think about bitcoin in 2024?
20VC: Keith Rabois and Mike Shebat on Creating an Olympian Mindset to Work Ethic, Why First-Time Founders are Better Than Serial Entrepreneurs, Why Remote Work Does Not Work, Why the Best Founders Always Start in their Teens & Why Companies are Cults?
Keith Rabois is a General Partner @ Founders Fund, one of the world's best venture funds with a portfolio including the likes of Facebook, SpaceX, Anduril, Tesla and many more. For the last 23 years straight, Keith has either invested in or founded a $BN company. Keith is also the Co-Founder and CEO @ Openstore, the company that will buy or run your Shopify business.
Mike Shebat is the Founder and CEO @ Traba, the company providing industrial staffing when and where you need it. To date, Mike has raised $49M with Traba from some of the best including Founders Fund, General Catalyst and Khosla Ventures.
In Today's Episode We Discuss:
1. What it Takes to Build a Great:
Why does Mike expect everyone to work in office 12 hours per day, 4 days per week?
At what point does an extra hour of work not lead to more output?
What are the expectations in terms of emails, out of office, the weekends?
Keith, from the 23 BN companies you have worked with, is this insane work ethic aligned to all of them? Which had it? What did not?
What core components of PayPal's work ethic made it so strong? What does Keith mean when he says Linkedin could and should have been 5x bigger?
2. The Hiring Process for the Swat Team:
What does the hiring process look like for this type of work environment?
What are the signs that someone is really aligned to it vs faking it for the interview process?
What have been Keith's biggest lessons on both compensation and title in the hiring process?
Why does Keith believe that culture is like concrete? What are the biggest mistakes he has made on culture and what would he have done differently?
3. First-Time Founders, Innate Entrepreneurs & Europe's Failing:
Does Keith agree the best founders always show signs of early entrepreneurship in their teens?
Why does Keith prefer first-time founders to serial entrepreneurs? Why are they better?
Why does Keith believe that Europe has not created a $100BN company since 1990?
4. Remote Work, Network Effects and Baseball:
Why does Keith believe being great in venture is like baseball?
Why does Keith and Founders Fund not invest in remote teams? How does he explain Gitlab?
Why does Keith believe Airbnb has the best network effect he has ever seen?
What is OpenStore? How Keith Rabois is Acquiring Shopify Brands
Keith is the Co-founder and CEO of OpenStore, a portfolio of brands building its own shopping destination. Before starting OpenStore, Keith was an early executive at companies like PayPal, eBay, LinkedIn, and Square, a co-founder of OpenDoor, and an early investor in companies like DoorDash, Faire, Affirm, Webflow, Ramp, and Stripe, and is also currently a General Partner at Founders Fund
Keith started the company in 2021 with co-founders Jack Abraham, Matt Lanter, and Jeremy Wood, and has since raised over $150 million supported by investors like Atomic, Founders Fund, General Catalyst, Khosla Ventures, Lux Capital, and Vine Ventures.
—
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In this episode, we discuss:
• The 3-minute conversation that started OpenStore
• All the problems that still exist in ecommerce
• Why Instagram Shopping failed
• What Keith and team are building at OpenStore
• Why Wish failed
• The margin profile of most consumer brands
• A crash course on contribution margin and profitability for startup founders
• How OpenStore gets 3x higher contribution margin than other consumer brands
• As a VC, the one thing Keith looks for in the founders he backs
• A framework for founders and investors to consider when incubating companies
• Why Keith thinks no great SF-based startups has been founded since March of 2020
• The reasons he moved to Miami
• Why he’s bearish on most AI startups
• His favorite interview questions for candidates
Referenced:
• Email Keith - keith@foundersfund.com
Where to find Keith:
• Twitter: https://twitter.com/rabois
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/keith
Where to find Turner:
• Newsletter: https://www.thespl.it
• Twitter: https://twitter.com/TurnerNovak
Production and distribution by: https://www.supermix.io
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EP 62: Keith Rabois (Partner, Founders Fund) Lessons from Peter Thiel & Reid Hoffman, and Why He'd Never Invest in a Remote-First Company
Keith Rabois is a prominent Silicon Valley investor and entrepreneur. He is currently the CEO and founder of OpenStore, and a partner at Founders Fund, a venture capital firm co-founded by Peter Thiel. Prior to this, he served as the COO at Square, a mobile payments company founded by Jack Dorsey, and was also part of the so-called "PayPal Mafia," a group of individuals who co-founded PayPal or worked there in its early days and went on to become successful entrepreneurs and investors. Throughout his career, he has been involved in the founding and growth of many successful technology companies, including Yelp, LinkedIn, and YouTube. In Keith's second appearance on the podcast, he discusses topics such as his dislike for OKRs, his aversion to investing in remote-first companies, and his experiences working with Peter Thiel, Reid Hoffman, and Jack Dorsey.
(0:00) Intro
(1:14) Welcome back, Keith
(5:35) Hating OKRs
(10:03) On making decisions
(14:09) Not believing in remote work
(17:33) Social Issues in the Workplace
(19:00) What is the role of a VC?
(22:08) Thinking about what can go right
(29:35) The "why you" in a potential investment
(34:28) Fitting the founder to the story
(37:59) The most successful founders are trending older
(43:21) The firm brand at Founders Fund
(47:57) Lessons learned from Keith's only five bosses in his career
(55:48) Thoughts on AI
(59:36) Artificial Intelligence in China
(1:03:23) What is your most contrarian view today?
(1:06:56) On Elon & using Twitter
Show Notes:
https://twitter.com/rabois
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6fQHLK1aIBs
https://delian.io/lessons-3
Mixed and edited: Justin Hrabovsky
Produced: Rashad Assir
Executive Producer: Josh Machiz
Music: Griff Lawson
🎙 Listen to the show
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About the Show
Logan Bartlett is a Software Investor at Redpoint Ventures - a Silicon Valley-based VC with $6B AUM and investments in Snowflake, DraftKings, Twilio, and Netflix. In each episode, Logan goes behind the scenes with world-class entrepreneurs and investors. If you're interested in the real inside baseball of tech, entrepreneurship, and start-up investing, tune in every Friday for new episodes.
Executive Producer: Rashad Assir
Producer: Leah Clapper
Mixing and editing: Justin Hrabovsky
Check out Unsupervised Learning, Redpoint's AI Podcast: https://www.youtube.com/@UCUl-s_Vp-Kkk_XVyDylNwLA
🎥 Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCugS0jD5IAdoqzjaNYzns7w?sub_confirmation=1
Follow on Socials
📸 Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/theloganbartlettshow
📱 X - https://twitter.com/loganbartshow
🎬 Clips on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@theloganbartlettshow
About the Show
Logan Bartlett is a Software Investor at Redpoint Ventures - a Silicon Valley-based VC with $6B AUM and investments in Snowflake, DraftKings, Twilio, and Netflix. In each episode of The Logan Bartlett Show, we sit down with the people behind today’s most important startups and extract the tactics, lessons, and frameworks they’ve learned the hard way. Conversations span hiring to GTM, product, growth, fundraising and everything in between - collectively forming the ultimate playbook to make you a better CEO, investor or board member.
Tap follow and enable notifications to stay ahead of the game.
Keith Rabois on 2023 macro outlook, startup valuations, founder advice, ChatGPT vs Google | E1650
Multiple time guest and friend of the pod Keith Rabois is back! Jason and Keith talk 2023 macro outlook (1:00), big tech's impact on startups (10:01), advice for founders (18:24), Meta's risky VR bet (27:22), ChatGPT vs Google (39:05), and more!
(0:00) Jason intros today's guest: Keith Rabois!
(1:00) Keith's 2023 macro outlook and thoughts on startup valuations
(8:54) Vanta - Get $1000 off your SOC 2 at https://vanta.com/twist
(10:01) What are big tech hiring freezes and RIFs doing to the startup market? Entitlement era coming to an end
(18:24) Advice for different archetypes of founders
(25:50) Acquire.com - Sign up for FREE at https://try.acquire.com/twist
(27:22) Importance of founder authority, Tim Cook taking over for Steve Jobs at Apple, Meta's risky VR bet
(37:34) Apply for the LAUNCH Accelerator: https://launchaccelerator.co
(39:05) Keith's thoughts on ChatGPT, a new approach to search, and Microsoft taking on Google
(53:37) What types of founders is Keith looking to invest in right now?
(59:25) OpenDoor thoughts + a little politics
FOLLOW Keith: https://twitter.com/rabois
FOLLOW Jason: https://linktr.ee/calacanis
FOLLOW Molly: https://twitter.com/mollywood
20VC: The Memo: Bill Gurley, Doug Leone, Keith Rabois; Investing Lessons from Prior Busts, How Their Investor Psychology Changed, What Can Be Applied To Today's Market
Bill Gurley is a General Partner @ Benchmark Capital, Bill, is widely recognized as one of the greats of our time having worked with the likes of GrubHub, NextDoor, Uber, OpenTable, Stitch Fix, and Zillow.
Doug Leone is the Global Managing Partner @ Sequoia Capital, one of the world's most renowned and successful venture firms with a portfolio including the likes of Google, Airbnb, Whatsapp, Stripe, Zoom and many more.
Keith Rabois is a General Partner @ Founders Fund, one of the best performing funds of the last decade with a portfolio including Facebook, Airbnb, SpaceX, Stripe, Anduril, the list goes on.
Arthur Patterson and Jim Swartz founded Accel in 1983. Under their leadership, they have built Accel into one of the most prominent venture firms of the last 4 decades.
Michael Eisenberg is a Co-Founder and Equal Partner @ Aleph, with a portfolio including the likes of Lemonade, Melio and HoneyBook, they are one of the leading early-stage firms of the last decade.
Sonali De Rycker is a Partner @ Accel, one of the leading firms of the last 3 decades with a portfolio that includes the likes of UiPath, Miro, Spotify and many more incredible companies.
Fabrice Grinda is the Founding Partner @ FJ Labs, with over 700 investments, Fabrice has had over 250 exits and built a portfolio including Alibaba, Coupang, Airbnb, Instacart, Flexport, and many more.
In Today's Episode You Will Learn:
1.) How does the current environment compare to prior busts?
2.) How will the changing interest rates impact the startup funding climate moving forward?
3.) Why is the rate of inflation the only true metric which reveals the ultimate fate of the economy?
4.) What are the world's leading investors telling their founders?
5.) How are the best investors in the world thinking through reserves management?
20VC: Keith Rabois on Why Buy Low, Sell High Does Not Work in Venture, Keith's Biggest Lessons from Prior Crashes, Why Today's Public Markets are not an Over-Reaction, Why Valuation is a Trap & Why Wokeness is a Function of Entitlement
Keith Rabois is a General Partner @ Founders Fund, one of the best performing funds of the last decade with a portfolio including Facebook, Airbnb, SpaceX, Stripe, Anduril, the list goes on. As for Keith, he has led the first institutional investments in DoorDash, Affirm and co-founded Opendoor. He has also led investments in Faire, Ramp, Trade Republic, and Stripe. As an operator, Keith has an unparalleled track record as a Senior Exec at Paypal, he then went on to influential roles at Linkedin and being COO at Square. Finally, as an angel, Keith made early investments into Airbnb, Lyft, Palantir, Wish and more.
In Today's Episode with Keith Rabois:
1.) Buy Low, Sell High: What BS!
Why does Keith believe that "buy low, sell high" does not work in venture?
Why would it lead you to very dangerous investment decisions at the early stage?
How does the size of your fund impact the appropriateness of "buy low, sell high"?
2.) The Current Landscape:
Does Keith believe the current state of public markets is an over-reaction or a new normal?
How does Keith respond to the suggestion that Founders Fund has paused new investments given the uncertainty in the market?
How does Keith think about investing through cycles and temporal diversification?
How does Keith advise young investors today questioning whether they are actually any good at this?
What does Keith believe are his biggest fears and insecurities today?
3.) Outcome Scenario Planning and Competitor Analysis:
Does Keith believe outcome scenario planning is important?
Why does Keith believe you can always tell your biggest hits early? What have been the core signs for him?
What have been some of Keith's biggest lessons from Mike Moritz and Vinod Khosla when it comes to upside maximization? What are the right questions to ask?
Why does Keith believe you do need to look through public market comps when investing in startups?
4.) Time Allocation and Losing Faith in Founders:
How does Keith approach time allocation across the portfolio? Spend time with the winners or help the struggling companies? What have been his biggest lessons here?
What does Keith do when he has lost faith in the founder? How does he communicate it to them?
What does Kieth believe VCs do wrong when they no longer believe in the founder or company?
5.) Do VCs Add Value?
What does Keith believe is the acid test for whether he is doing his job as a VC properly?
Why does Keith believe there are only 5 board members that add true value to their companies at scale?
Who is the best board member Keith has ever worked with? Why?
Why does Keith believe that age is not your friend as an investor? How does he combat this?
6.) The Downfall of SF and Wokeness:
Will we see a reduction of wokeness in companies with the public markets correcting and power shifting from employees to employers?
Is Keith concerned by the lack of coherence in the US today when it comes to politics?
What are the core reasons for the downfall of SF to Keith?
Why does he believe it is a net negative to build a company in SF today?
Items Mentioned in Today's Episode:
Keith's Most Recent Investment: Found
#AIS: Tim Urban on political discourse + Keith Rabois on early-stage investing in 2022
This talk was recorded LIVE at the All-In Summit in Miami and included slides. To watch on YouTube, check out our All-In Summit playlist: https://bit.ly/aisytplaylist 0:00 Tim Urban gives a talk on political discourse in America and explains high-rung vs. low-rung thinking
26:20 The Besties and Keith Rabois join Tim Urban on stage for a roundtable discussion on cancel culture
51:23 Keith Rabois talks about taking a pause on new investments in 2022 and gives his take on other major VC players
Follow the guests:
https://twitter.com/waitbutwhy
https://twitter.com/rabois
Follow the besties:
https://twitter.com/chamath
https://linktr.ee/calacanis
https://twitter.com/DavidSacks
https://twitter.com/friedberg
Follow the pod:
https://twitter.com/theallinpod
https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast
Intro Music Credit:
https://rb.gy/tppkzl
https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg
Intro Video Credit:
https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect
EP 13: An Interview with Keith Rabois on Why He Tweets and Miami Tech Week, Netflix Loses 200K Subscribers, and Even More Elon
(04:35) Miami Tech Week is just dangerous being so close to Coachella
(08:18) Netflix somehow losing subscribers even though they raised prices and have 98 competitors
(24:14) Elon Musk just buying stuff out of spite
(29:57) A16Z’s new Accelerator
(36:08) Keith Rabois interview and his hottest of takes
Follow the show:
https://twitter.com/cartoonavatars
https://www.instagram.com/cartoonavatars/
https://www.tiktok.com/@cartoonavatars
Follow the hosts:
https://twitter.com/zck
https://twitter.com/nikitabier
https://twitter.com/loganbartlett
Mixed and edited: Justin Hrabovsky
Produced: Andrew Nadeau and Rashad Assir
Executive Producer: Josh Machiz
Music: Griff Lawson
Reference Links:
Netflix stock loss: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/19/netflix-nflx-earnings-q1-2022.html
Elon Musk twitter funding: https://www.theverge.com/2022/4/21/23033445/elon-musk-twitter-bank-debt-commitment-letter
A16Z Accelerator program: https://techcrunch.com/2022/04/18/andreessen-horowitz-a16z-start-seed/
Executive Producer: Rashad Assir
Producer: Leah Clapper
Mixing and editing: Justin Hrabovsky
Check out Unsupervised Learning, Redpoint's AI Podcast: https://www.youtube.com/@UCUl-s_Vp-Kkk_XVyDylNwLA
🎥 Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCugS0jD5IAdoqzjaNYzns7w?sub_confirmation=1
Follow on Socials
📸 Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/theloganbartlettshow
📱 X - https://twitter.com/loganbartshow
🎬 Clips on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@theloganbartlettshow
About the Show
Logan Bartlett is a Software Investor at Redpoint Ventures - a Silicon Valley-based VC with $6B AUM and investments in Snowflake, DraftKings, Twilio, and Netflix. In each episode of The Logan Bartlett Show, we sit down with the people behind today’s most important startups and extract the tactics, lessons, and frameworks they’ve learned the hard way. Conversations span hiring to GTM, product, growth, fundraising and everything in between - collectively forming the ultimate playbook to make you a better CEO, investor or board member.
Tap follow and enable notifications to stay ahead of the game.
Keith Rabois of Founders Fund + AirBnB's earnings & evolving customer base, SF BOE recall | E1388
World-class investor-operator Keith Rabois is back for his eighth time!
But first, Jason breaks down Airbnb’s great Q4 and full-year earnings report (2:42) and how its customer segment is evolving. Then, he briefly covers the SF Board of Education recall (22:58).
When Keith joins (31:27), he and Jason discuss:
1. How he called the top of the tech market in November 2021
2. Keith's 2019 prediction that came true
2. Venture Capital's decaying price discipline
3. Facebook's challenge ahead
4. Six predictions for the market
Notes
0:00 Jason intros today’s topics: $ABNB full year earnings, SF BOE recall, and a Keith Rabois interview
2:42 Jason breaks down Airbnb’s full year results
11:57 Vanta - Get get $1,000 off automating your SOC 2 at https://vanta.com/twist
13:14 Jason reflects on Airbnb’s roadmap based on clues from their earnings report
21:42 Gun.io - Get $250 off your first developer hire at https://Gun.io/twist!
22:58 SF Board of Education recall, tech people getting involved in government
29:56 Eight Sleep - Go to https://eightsleep.com/twist to check out the Pod Pro Cover and get $150 off at checkout!
31:27 Keith Rabois joins and talks with Jason about calling the top of the tech market in November
43:27 Reflecting on the absence of pricing discipline in VC and how the FED is running out of tools to combat inflation
53:34 Breaking down Facebook’s precarious situation
1:05:16 6 Market predictions
Check out Founders Fund: https://www.foundersfund.com
FOLLOW Keith: https://twitter.com/rabois
FOLLOW Jason: https://linktr.ee/calacanis
FOLLOW Molly: https://twitter.com/mollywood
20VC: The Opendoor Memo: Keith Rabois on The Origins of Opendoor from a Conversation with Peter Thiel, Why Cash is Not a Competitive Moat for Startups Today and What People Misunderstand About Black Swan Events in Real Estate and How it Impacts Opendoor
Keith Rabois is a General Partner @ Founders Fund, one of the most successful venture firms of the last decade with home runs in the likes of SpaceX, Palantir, Stripe, Anduril, Facebook, Airbnb, Nubank and many more. As for Keith, he led the first institutional investments in DoorDash, Affirm and has also led investments in Ramp, Trade Republic, Faire and Stripe. Prior to venture, Keith had the most stellar operating career, joining PayPal when their monthly burn-rate was $6 million; Keith joined LinkedIn, Slide and Square when they had no revenue. Fun fact, five companies Keith helped build are now publicly traded with market caps >$1 Billion. Three others have been acquired for greater than $1 Billion or are publicly traded IPOs. If that was not enough, Keith is also the Co-Founder and CEO @ OpenStore, acquiring small DTC businesses.
In Today's Episode with Keith Rabois You Will Learn:
1.) How Keith first came up with the idea for Opendoor? How a conversation with Peter Thiel led to the founding of the first iteration of the company? Why did it take Keith close to a decade to pursue the idea fully, post having the idea in 2003?
2.) The Market: What made Keith so excited to pursue Opendoor from a top-down market analysis perspective? What does Keith look for in markets he likes to invest in? How did Keith expect the market to change and evolve? What did the market do differently to how Keith thought it would behave?
3.) The Business Model: With debt being the oxygen for Opendoor, how many homes did they need to acquire before they could prove they could price homes accurately? What were Keith's lessons from the first homes they bought? What did not go to plan? Why does Keith disagree, if macro hits real estate, Opendoor's model is challenged? Why does Keith believe it is stronger then?
4.) The Team: What does Keith look for in the founding teams he backs? How does Keith detect diamonds in the rough? How can teams systematically de-risk an opportunity with their experience? With the benefit of hindsight, what would Keith have done differently with the team?
5.) The Funding: Was fundraising for Opendoor always easy? How did the seed round go down? How does Keith feel today about pre-emptive rounds where little company development has taken place? Why did Opendoor decide to SPAC? Why not a direct list? Was this the right choice? What makes for the best SPAC partner?
Keith Rabois on Miami vs. Bay Area, cognitive variety, America’s self-examination & more PLUS Keith’s Best Twitter Dunks | E1182
Check out Founders Fund: https://foundersfund.com
FOLLOW Keith: https://twitter.com/rabois
FOLLOW Jason: https://linktr.ee/calacanis
E1152: Keith Rabois on leaving Silicon Valley for Miami, Roaring Twenties 2.0, IPO spree & more
FOLLOW Keith: https://twitter.com/rabois
FOLLOW Jason: https://linktr.ee/calacanis
E1093: Keith Rabois on China’s grand plan, TikTok, Taiwan, Big Tech & more
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SaaStr 353: Unicorns and Decacorns in 2020: What's Changed and What Hasn't with Keith Rabois, General Partner at Founders Fund and Jason Lemkin, CEO, and Founder of SaaStr
Keith Rabois (Paypal, Linkedin, Square) and SaaStr Founder Jason Lemkin talk about the landscape of SaaS & Cloud fundraising and valuation in 2020.
This episode is an excerpt from Keith and Jason's session at SaaStr Summit: The New New in Venture.
Full video: https://youtu.be/KxTZfx_QpjY
Podcast transcript: https://www.saastr.com/saastr-podcasts-for-the-week-with-keith-rabois-and-jason-lemkin/
E1057: Founders Fund General Partner Keith Rabois on stock market bounce back, domain expertise being overrated, US/China issues, 2020 election, recipe for startups success, chaos making way for a new generation of entrepreneurs & much more!
0:56 Jason intros Keith Rabois and checks in on his quarantine, Zoom's heightened exhaustion factor & more
5:46 What will the lasting impact of COVID be on Silicon Valley & the startup funding landscape?
8:18 How the early 2000's dot-com bust paved way for a generation of new founders & why the PayPal mafia of outsiders thrived in chaos & became the establishment
14:23 What has happened to intellectual debate during COVID-19? What are first principle thinkers and why are they important to problem-solving?
20:53 Is domain expertise overrated?
22:39 Keith's on his pinned tweet about his perceived recipe for startup success
26:50 In which verticals did Keith find outliers using his low-NPS/fragmented/vertical solution strategy?
32:15 History on US relationship with China, has Trump been right on China threat, should US try and bring manufacturing back from China?
44:41 China's involvement with whistleblowers, benefits of litigation knowledge as a VC, world's reaction to China mishandling COVID info
50:40 Has Biden been soft on China? How will that play into the 2020 election?
1:00:51 Why is the stock market bouncing back so quickly with record-setting unemployment numbers? Will there be another correction?
1:03:59 What is Keith seeing across his portfolio? M&A opportunity for companies like Lyft?
1:09:34 Keith shares thoughts on the right time to go public
1:13:50 Impact of 20% unemployment on startups over the next year, mental impact of lockdown & social isolation
1:20:40 Keith's most positive outlook going forward
Recode Decode: OpenDoor CEO Eric Wu / Evite CEO Victor Cho
Recode's Kara Swisher interviews two CEOs in this double-feature episode of Recode Decode: First, she speaks with OpenDoor CEO Eric Wu about how technology is encroaching on the real estate industry, why housing is ripe for disruption, and how OpenDoor is bracing for the next recession. Later in the show, Swisher talks to Evite CEO Victor Cho about how the 21-year-old company is exploring new revenue models, avoiding the "MySpace slide," and what Cho learned from Eastman Kodak's failed turnaround.
Featuring:
Eric Wu (@ericwu01), CEO of OpenDoor
Victor Cho, CEO of Evite
Hosts:
Kara Swisher (@karaswisher), Recode co-founder and editor-at-large
More to explore:
Subscribe for free to Pivot, Kara’s podcast with NYU Professor Scott Galloway that offer sharp, unfiltered insights into the biggest stories in tech, business, and politics.
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Recode by Vox helps you understand how tech is changing the world — and changing us.
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Building Product & Ops at Uber (with Brian Tolkin)
[on Uber’s Early Organizational Structure] “Uber always thought about it as a twin-turbine plane: maybe for a short period of time, you could operate on one engine. But if you want to operate at full efficiency, you need both engines working in tandem and working effectively together.” Brian Tolkin, (@briantolkin)
We’re super excited to be joined by Brian Tolkin, one of Uber’s first ~100 employees who built their “Product Ops” organization and then went on to lead Product Management for UberPOOL and all shared rides on the platform. We dive into the nitty gritty of how Uber built their “twin turbine” engine of decentralized real-world Ops and centralized Tech Product, and how the organization evolved as it scaled. We also cover Brian’s new role at OpenDoor and the tight ops + product coupling they’re building now in real estate.
Sponsors:
Sierra: https://bit.ly/acquiredsierra
Be sure to follow the Acquired Podcast:
Acquired.fm
@AcquiredFM
Links from the Show:
Stanford Venture Capital Club
Ben Evans: The End of the Beginning (video)
Lyft IPO (Acquired)
Pre-Meeting Narrative Example
OpenDoor.com
Recode Decode: Keith Rabois
Khosla Ventures partner Keith Rabois talks with Recode's Kara Swisher about the current startup and venture capital landscape, the Trump administration and more. In this episode: (01:18) Rabois's background; (04:28) Becoming a venture capitalist and how Khosla Ventures invests; (09:37) The startup and venture capital landscape; (15:06) Why startup fundraising was unusually hectic in December; (19:15) Investing in healthcare, aerospace and autonomous driving; (26:56) Artificial intelligence; (29:02) Ethical issues in advertising and at Facebook; (36:40) Political advertising and Russian media manipulation; (40:40) The prospect of regulation; (46:32) Saudi Arabia and the murder of Jamal Khashoggi; (50:04) Contrarianism and book recommendations; (53:45) Being conservative and Rabois' friend Peter Thiel; (58:07) What happens to the Trump administration next?; (1:02:16) Who could run against Trump and win?; (1:04:47) Rabois's real estate company Opendoor
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