My guest today is Gavin Baker, founding partner and CIO of Atreides Management. This is our seventh conversation, and just two months after Gavin's last appearance.
It's about the gap between what the market is doing and what companies are seeing. It's been a tough month or so for public AI names, but there's no sign of a slowdown on the ground in Silicon Valley.
We discuss the latest moves, contracted vs. spot GPU prices, the game theory of memory supply agreements, and why Claude has become the Walter Cronkite of the stock market. We close on SpaceX, orbital compute, and what Gavin sees as the single biggest risk to all of it.
Please enjoy this conversation, from the famous table at Benchmark, with my friend Gavin Baker.
For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page here.
-----
Become a Colossus member to get our quarterly print magazine and private audio experience, including exclusive profiles and early access to select episodes. Subscribe at colossus.com/subscribe.
-----
Ramp's mission is to help companies manage their spend in a way that reduces expenses and frees up time for teams to work on more valuable projects. Go to ramp.com/invest to sign up for free and get a $250 welcome bonus.
-----
Trusted by thousands of businesses, Vanta continuously monitors your security posture and streamlines audits so you can win enterprise deals and build customer trust without the traditional overhead. Invest Like the Best listeners get a special offer of $1,000 off Vanta when you go to vanta.com/invest.
-----
WorkOS is the infrastructure B2B and AI-native companies use to sell to enterprise. It covers everything enterprise security requires: SSO, SCIM, RBAC, Audit Logs, AI governance, and more. Trusted by 2,000+ fast-growing companies, including OpenAI, Anthropic, Cursor, and Vercel.
-----
Rogo is the AI platform for finance. They're building agents for Wall Street that are trained to understand how bankers and investors actually do work: from diligence and modeling, to turning analysis into deliverables. To learn more, visit rogo.ai/invest.
-----
Ridgeline has built a complete, real-time, modern operating system for investment managers. It handles trading, portfolio management, compliance, customer reporting, and much more through an all-in-one real-time cloud platform. Visit ridgeline.ai.
-----
Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant.
Timestamps:
(00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like The Best
(00:02:35) First Question: July Was 2022 in a Month
(00:04:08) The Private Companies Public Markets Can't See
(00:05:06) Old GPUs Repricing Higher
(00:06:53) Walking Through the Month
(00:08:22) Kimi, GLM 5.2 & the Open Source Freak-Out
(00:10:51) Real Yields, Spreads & CDS
(00:11:54) Does the Build-Out Need Credit?
(00:15:22) A Sell-Off With No Clear Villain
(00:17:35) Open Source as Dark Matter
(00:18:39) Nvidia's Lowest Forward PE in 10 Years
(00:21:35) Claude as Walter Cronkite for the Stock Market
(00:23:55) Continual Learning & Sample Efficiency
(00:25:19) What Would Actually Scare Him
(00:26:38) Routers & the Multi-Model Future
(00:30:51) Tokens as a Percent of Comp Spend
(00:33:37) The Game Theory of Breaking an LTA
(00:36:41) Nvidia's Credit Wrapper & Revenue Share
(00:37:45) What He'd Do If He Ran Hynix
(00:41:46) Who's More Bullish than Him
(00:43:28) China's DUV Machine
(00:46:10) Bull Case for Software
(00:48:16) The RSI Maximalist View
(00:49:31) Inference Clouds Growing Without Burning Cash
(00:50:35) The Biggest Risk Is Regulation
(00:53:44) Telling the Story Better
(00:57:15) Dark Horses
(00:58:02) SpaceX in the Public Markets
As part of our summer replay series, we're revisiting one of the standout conversations from Runtime, a16z's conference on AI infrastructure and the future of computing.
Gavin Baker, Managing Partner and CIO of Atreides Management, joins David George to examine the biggest questions surrounding today's AI investment cycle. Is AI a bubble? What does the unprecedented buildout of data centers, GPUs, and compute infrastructure mean for the economy? And how should investors think about the companies building the next generation of AI?
The conversation explores frontier models, Nvidia, Google, custom silicon, AI infrastructure, application software, robotics, and why Baker believes today's AI investment cycle looks fundamentally different from the internet bubble of the early 2000s. Along the way, they discuss the economics of GPUs, enterprise software, AI business models, and what comes next as AI moves from experimentation into the broader economy.
Resources:
Follow Gavin Baker on X: https://x.com/GavinSBaker
Follow Atreides Management on X: https://x.com/atreidesmgmt
Follow David George on X: https://x.com/DavidGeorge83
Stay Updated:
Find a16z on YouTube: YouTube
Find a16z on X
Find a16z on LinkedIn
Listen to the a16z Show on Spotify
Listen to the a16z Show on Apple Podcasts
Follow our host: https://twitter.com/eriktorenberg
Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.
Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
(0:00) Gavin Baker and Travis Kalanick join the show!
(1:05) Mamdani-endorsed socialists sweep congressional primaries in NYC
(22:51) Future of the Democratic Party, the Israel issue, social media bans
(45:12) China's open-source AI catch up, distillation, OpenAI's new chip
(1:01:46) Micron smashes earnings, AI's memory crunch hitting Apple and consumer hardware
(1:10:17) The math behind distributed compute and datacenters in space
(1:27:22) IPO update: Anthropic at $3T, SpaceX float, Cerebras drops after breaking deal price
Follow Gavin:
https://x.com/GavinSBaker
Follow Travis:
https://x.com/travisk
Apply for Summit 2026:
https://allin.com/events
Follow the besties:
https://x.com/chamath
https://x.com/Jason
https://x.com/DavidSacks
https://x.com/friedberg
Follow on X:
https://x.com/theallinpod
Follow on Instagram:
https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod
Follow on TikTok:
https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod
Follow on LinkedIn:
https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod
Intro Music Credit:
https://rb.gy/tppkzl
https://x.com/yung_spielburg
Intro Video Credit:
https://x.com/TheZachEffect
Referenced in the show:
https://abcnews.com/Politics/clean-sweep-3-candidates-endorsed-mamdani-win-primaries/story?id=134152579
https://polymarket.com/event/mamdani-team-sweeps-primaries-20260618232357710
https://x.com/thestustustudio/status/2067356255916536120
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/espaillat-ny-house-primary-loss-district-13-avila-chevalier-rcna351127
https://x.com/EndWokeness/status/2069645066252034288
https://x.com/america/status/2069622732279402804
https://x.com/realmaalouf/status/2069433391162798337
https://x.com/JoshBlockDC/status/2070108811851882691
https://x.com/EndWokeness/status/2069776474429624684
https://x.com/EndWokeness/status/2068829255786803368
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2026/04/07/negative-views-of-israel-netanyahu-continue-to-rise-among-americans-especially-young-people
https://x.com/PirateWires/status/2069146641266094417
https://www.wsj.com/economy/the-data-center-boom-is-sparking-a-third-wave-of-inflation-926adc6e
https://x.com/jietang/status/2067580270078030088
Brad Gerstner sits down with Gavin Baker and Andrew Fox of Atreides Management, alongside Altimeter partner Clark Tang, to break down one of the biggest questions in tech and markets: how should investors think about the SpaceX IPO?
They unpack the major levers behind SpaceX’s next phase: Starship rapid reusability, Starlink broadband and direct-to-cell, Elon’s emerging AI compute business, xAI’s model ambitions, the Cursor acquisition, and the long-term promise of orbital data centers.
The group also debates whether SpaceX is becoming a new kind of AI hyperscaler — “Elon Web Services” — and what that means for the future of compute, cloud, and frontier intelligence.
Then they dive into the latest model race: Fable 5, Mythos, ChatGPT 5.5, long-running agents, open source vs. frontier models, Nvidia vs. ASICs, the AI CapEx boom, and why the market may still be underestimating the scale of AI demand. Enjoy another episode of BG2!
Timestamps:
(00:40) Intro — SpaceX IPO in Two Days, Mythos Launches, Taiwan Takeaways
(03:05) xAI's Google & Anthropic Deals: Highest Operating Profit Per Gigawatt
(13:28) "Elon Web Services" — Nobody Had AI Compute in the SpaceX Model
(19:08) Data Centers Are Not Commodities: First-Principles Design
(26:01) Orbital Compute Economics: $5B Per Gigawatt in Space vs. $25B on the Ground
(29:25) The Most Underrated Variable: What Cursor Does for xAI's Model
(35:05) Bull & Bear Case — Can SpaceX Really 8X Revenue in 4 Years?
(37:00) Post-IPO Drawdowns, Lock-Ups & How to Size the Position
(43:56) Fable 5, Mythos & Why Snapshot Benchmarks Are Broken
(51:00) Frontier vs. Open Source: 90% of Revenue Accrues at the Frontier
(01:04:11) $1.5T in CapEx vs. $300B in AI Revenue — Does the Math Math?
(01:18:13) The Next $1 Trillion: Three Companies, Half the Time
Produced by Edward Schmidt & Dan Shevchuk
Music by Yung Spielberg
Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com
Follow:
Brad Gerstner @altcap https://x.com/altcap
Gavin Baker @GavinSBaker https://x.com/GavinSBaker
Clark Tang @_clarktang https://x.com/_clarktang
BG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod
(0:00) Brad Gerstner, Gavin Baker, and Kelly Rodriques join the Besties!
(0:47) Secondary Markets are Booming & Competing with IPOs
(3:10) Why Companies are Staying Private So Long?
(9:22) SPVs, the Forge-Schwab Deal, Democratizing Private Market Access
(13:28) Secondary Markets as Exit Liquidity for VCs
(27:00) The Private Market Bubble?
(32:03) Hottest Secondary Companies Right Now
Thanks to our partners for making this possible!
EY - Agentic AI is introducing a new investment discipline. As AI shifts to consumption-based models, EY connects spend to enterprise value.
https://www.ey.com/en_us/insights/ai/agentic-ai-token-costs?WT.mc_id=3501318&AA.tsrc=sponsorship
NYSE - Thank you to our partner, the New York Stock Exchange - a modern marketplace and exchange for building the future. It all happens at the NYSE.
https://www.nyse.com
Plaud - Never miss a moment. Plaud, our official wearable AI note-taking partner at All-In Liquidity Summit, captured every insight.
https://www.plaud.ai
Follow Brad:
https://x.com/altcap
Follow Gavin:
https://x.com/GavinSBaker
Follow Kelly:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/kelly-rodriques-9b49418
Follow the besties:
https://x.com/chamath
https://x.com/Jason
https://x.com/DavidSacks
https://x.com/friedberg
Follow on X:
https://x.com/theallinpod
Follow on Instagram:
https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod
Follow on TikTok:
https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod
Follow on LinkedIn:
https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod
Intro Music Credit:
https://rb.gy/tppkzl
https://x.com/yung_spielburg
(0:00) Gavin Baker joins the show!
(0:30) Andrej Karpathy joins Anthropic; hypergrowth and profitability
(12:42) Why Americans have turned on AI, anti-human perception
(27:22) Trump pulls AI EO, US-China AI relationship, dystopian AI layoffs
(45:19) SpaceX S-1 tear down! Breaking down the three major businesses and the case for a $2T valuation
(1:11:22) Nvidia smashes earnings but stock falls, why people are shorting chips
(1:22:25) Market update: Flashing red signals, oil, inflation, yields up
(1:32:45) China trip flops, or was progress made behind the scenes?
Follow Gavin Baker:
https://x.com/GavinSBaker
Apply for Summit 2026:
https://allin.com/events
Follow the besties:
https://x.com/chamath
https://x.com/Jason
https://x.com/DavidSacks
https://x.com/friedberg
Follow on X:
https://x.com/theallinpod
Follow on Instagram:
https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod
Follow on TikTok:
https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod
Follow on LinkedIn:
https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod
Intro Music Credit:
https://rb.gy/tppkzl
https://x.com/yung_spielburg
Intro Video Credit:
https://x.com/TheZachEffect
Referenced in the show:
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/19/anthropic-hires-openai-cofounder-andrej-karpathy-former-tesla-ai-lead.html
https://github.com/karpathy/autoresearch
https://github.com/multica-ai/andrej-karpathy-skills/stargazers
https://techcrunch.com/2026/05/19/openai-co-founder-andrej-karpathy-joins-anthropics-pre-training-team
https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/mind-blowing-growth-is-about-to-propel-anthropic-into-its-first-profitable-quarter-7edbf2f4
https://x.com/i/broadcasts/1dxYljYVREYJX
https://apnews.com/article/trump-ai-executive-order-ee318f35acc8a2c43e47f3ebf26cb459
https://x.com/wallstengine/status/2057378437485216031
https://x.com/MorePerfectUS/status/2056842597117636890
https://x.com/lulumeservey/status/2057239284487201043
https://polymarket.com/event/spacex-ipo-closing-market-cap-above
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2057228707606196434
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026036936/spaceexplorationtechnologi.htm
https://s201.q4cdn.com/141608511/files/doc_financials/2027/Q127/NVDA-F1Q27-Quarterly-Presentation-FINAL.pdf
https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/leopold-aschenbrenner-investment-shift-agi-over-ai-chips-1797606
https://polymarket.com/event/may-inflation-us-annual
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/15/inflation-rate-projected-to-hit-6percent-in-the-second-quarter-top-economic-forecasters-say.html
https://polymarket.com/event/fed-rate-hike-in-2026
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/18/treasury-yields-inflation-bond-rout-oil.html
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y
My guest today is Gavin Baker, founding partner and CIO of Atreides Management, and this is our sixth conversation.
The central theme is watts and wafers, the two physical constraints that in Gavin's view will dictate the next phase of AI.
On power, he thinks the near-term shortage starts to ease in 2027 and 2028 as new sources of energy come online, and that orbital compute solves it in the long term.
On wafers, he explains what is different this time from the dotcom bubble and why TSMC’s capacity decisions may be the single most important variable to watch.
We also discuss Elon’s Terrafab, the disaggregation of GPUs, the role of new chip companies, and whether the economic value of AI will keep accruing to frontier models.
For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page here.
-----
Become a Colossus member to get our quarterly print magazine and private audio experience, including exclusive profiles and early access to select episodes. Subscribe at colossus.com/subscribe.
-----
Ramp’s mission is to help companies manage their spend in a way that reduces expenses and frees up time for teams to work on more valuable projects. Go to ramp.com/invest to sign up for free and get a $250 welcome bonus.
-----
Trusted by thousands of businesses, Vanta continuously monitors your security posture and streamlines audits so you can win enterprise deals and build customer trust without the traditional overhead. Invest Like the Best listeners get a special offer of $1,000 off Vanta when you go to vanta.com/invest.
-----
WorkOS is the infrastructure B2B and AI-native companies use to sell to enterprise. It covers everything enterprise security requires: SSO, SCIM, RBAC, Audit Logs, AI governance, and more. Trusted by 2,000+ fast-growing companies, including OpenAI, Anthropic, Cursor, and Vercel.
-----
Rogo is the AI platform for finance. They're building agents for Wall Street that are trained to understand how bankers and investors actually do work: from diligence and modeling, to turning analysis into deliverables. To learn more, visit rogo.ai/invest.
-----
Ridgeline has built a complete, real-time, modern operating system for investment managers. It handles trading, portfolio management, compliance, customer reporting, and much more through an all-in-one real-time cloud platform. Visit ridgelineapps.com.
-----
Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com).
Timestamps:
(00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like The Best
(00:02:29) Gavin Baker Intro
(00:03:32) Anthropic's Record ARR Growth
(00:11:49) Should OpenAI and Anthropic Raise at a Much Higher Valuation?
(00:13:23) How Elon Preserves Investor Trust
(00:14:00) Watts & Wafers
(00:15:45) Data Centers in Space Explained
(00:20:51) Orbital Compute’s Impact on Terrestrial Data Centers
(00:26:24) TSMC Supply Discipline & Bubble Risk
(00:30:50) Demand for Frontier Tokens & The Bitter Lesson
(00:35:33) Continual Learning & Memory
(00:40:01) New Chip Companies & Startups
(00:42:49) Prefill vs. Decode Disaggregation
(00:48:40) AI-Native Founders: Different & Hard
(00:51:27) Token Path & Application Layer
(00:56:13) How Gavin Uses AI in Atreides
(01:00:06) Signs of a Diversity Breakdown
(01:05:42) Google, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft
(01:11:42) Broader Knock-On Effects of AI
My guest this week is Gavin Baker. Gavin is the managing partner and CIO of Atreides Management, and he has been on the show many times before.
I will never forget when I first met Gavin in 2017. I find his interest in markets, his curiosity about the world to be as infectious as any investor that I've ever come across. He's encyclopedic on what is going on in the world of technology today, and I've had the good fortune to host him every year or two on this podcast.
Gavin began covering Nvidia as an investor more than two decades ago, giving him a rare perspective on how the company – and the entire semiconductor ecosystem – has evolved. A lot has changed since our last conversation a year ago, making this the perfect time to revisit the topic.
In this conversation, we talk about everything that interests Gavin – Nvidia’s GPUs, Google’s TPUs, the changing AI landscape, the math and business models around AI companies and everything in between. We also discussed the idea of data centers in space, which he communicates with his usual passion and logic.
In closing, at the end of this conversation, because I've asked him my traditional closing question before, I asked him a different question, which led to a discussion of his entire investing origin story that I had never heard before.
Because Gavin is one of the most passionate thinkers and investors that I know, these conversations are always amongst my most favorite. I hope you enjoy this latest in the series of discussions with Gavin Baker.
For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page here.
-----
This episode is brought to you by Ramp. Ramp’s mission is to help companies manage their spend in a way that reduces expenses and frees up time for teams to work on more valuable projects. Go to ramp.com/invest to sign up for free and get a $250 welcome bonus.
-----
This episode is brought to you by Ridgeline. Ridgeline has built a complete, real-time, modern operating system for investment managers. It handles trading, portfolio management, compliance, customer reporting, and much more through an all-in-one real-time cloud platform. Head to ridgelineapps.com to learn more about the platform.
-----
This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense. AlphaSense has completely transformed the research process with cutting-edge AI technology and a vast collection of top-tier, reliable business content. Invest Like the Best listeners can get a free trial now at Alpha-Sense.com/Invest and experience firsthand how AlphaSense and Tegus help you make smarter decisions faster.
-----
Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com).
Show Notes:
(00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like The Best
(00:04:00) Meet Gavin Baker
(00:06:00) Understanding Gemini 3
(00:09:05) Scaling Laws for Pre-Training
(00:12:12) Google v. Nvidia
(00:14:53) Google as Lowest Cost Producer of Tokens
(00:25:18) AI Can Automate Anything that can be Verified
(00:30:23) The AI Bear Case: Edge AI
(00:33:43) Going from Intelligence to Usefulness
(00:36:34) AI Adoption in Fortune 500 Companies
(00:41:40) Frontier Models and Industry Dynamics
(00:48:05) China’s Mistake and Blackwell’s Geopolitical Leverage
(00:50:11) OpenAI’s Code Red
(00:52:50) Data Centers in Space
(00:58:00) Cycles in AI
(01:01:14) Power as a Bottleneck
(01:03:51) AI Native Entrepreneurs
(01:05:41) Semiconductor VC
(01:09:26) The Mistake the SaaS Industry is Making
(01:14:53) Series of Bubbles
(01:16:31) Whatever AI Needs, It Gets
(01:17:53) Investing is the Search for Truth
(01:18:37) Gavin’s Investing Origin Story
In this conversation from a16z’s Runtime conference, Gavin Baker, Managing Partner and CIO of Atreides Management, joins David George, General Partner at a16z, to unpack the macro view of AI: the trillion-dollar data center buildout, the new economics of GPUs, and what this boom means for investors, founders, and the global economy.
Resources:
Follow Gavin on X: https://x.com/GavinSBaker
Follow Atreides Management on X: https://x.com/atreidesmgmt
Follow David on X: https://x.com/DavidGeorge83
Stay Updated:
If you enjoyed this episode, be sure to like, subscribe, and share with your friends!
Find a16z on X: https://x.com/a16z
Find a16z on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16z
Listen to the a16z Podcast on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5bC65RDvs3oxnLyqqvkUYX
Listen to the a16z Podcast on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/a16z-podcast/id842818711
Follow our host: https://x.com/eriktorenberg
Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.
Stay Updated:
Find a16z on YouTube: YouTube
Find a16z on X
Find a16z on LinkedIn
Listen to the a16z Show on Spotify
Listen to the a16z Show on Apple Podcasts
Follow our host: https://twitter.com/eriktorenberg
Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.
Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
(0:00) Bestie intros! Gavin Baker, Ben Shapiro, and Phil Deutch join the show
(7:32) GPT-5 underwhelms, benchmark saturation, OpenAI's product excellence
(18:14) AI's TAM, ROIC, and energy implications
(27:27) China's major advantage and how the US can counter it
(43:46) Political parties picking winners, energy subsidy reversal, how the bureaucratic branch was created and how to fix it
(52:38) Socialism, OBBB impact on energy, does socialism in the US rely on Mamdani in NYC?
(1:10:00) Tariffs update: $125B+ revenue so far, India and Switzerland hit hard, Trump's ad hoc approach
(1:27:51) Nvidia chips being smuggled to China
(1:31:13) Apple's $700B in buybacks since 2015 and failing AI strategy
(1:40:09) Summer reading recommendations
Join us at the All-In Summit:
https://allin.com/summit
Summit scholarship application:
http://bit.ly/4kyZqFJ
Get The Besties All-In Tequila:
https://tequila.allin.com
Follow Ben:
https://x.com/benshapiro
Follow Gavin:
https://x.com/GavinSBaker
Follow Phil:
https://x.com/pdeutch
Follow the besties:
https://x.com/chamath
https://x.com/Jason
https://x.com/DavidSacks
https://x.com/friedberg
Follow on X:
https://x.com/theallinpod
Follow on Instagram:
https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod
Follow on TikTok:
https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod
Follow on LinkedIn:
https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod
Intro Music Credit:
https://rb.gy/tppkzl
https://x.com/yung_spielburg
Intro Video Credit:
https://x.com/TheZachEffect
Referenced in the show:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-08/openai-s-gpt-5-met-with-mixed-reviews-confusion-in-first-day
https://www.anthropic.com/news/build-ai-in-america
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=whE75zEFBpU
https://www.census.gov/library/visualizations/time-series/demo/historic.html
https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/two-chinese-nationals-arrested-complaint-alleging-they-illegally-shipped-china-sensitive
https://www.ft.com/content/6f806f6e-61c1-4b8d-9694-90d7328a7b54
(0:00) The Besties welcome Gavin Baker!
(1:51) Markets: Pricing in tariffs, Trump vs. Powell, solving the debt crisis
(19:24) The $10 trillion AGI prize, what artificial general intelligence and superintelligence looks like in the economy
(38:33) Sacks and Bo Hines join to discuss the GENIUS Act and the CLARITY Act passing the House this week, and what it means for crypto in the US
(52:42) AI Infrastructure: $90B in new investments announced, Nvidia H20 export restrictions lifted
(1:06:06) Sacks interviews Senator Bill Hagerty on the passing of the GENIUS Act
Follow Gavin Baker:
https://x.com/GavinSBaker
Follow Bo Hines:
https://x.com/bohines
Follow Senator Bill Hagerty:
https://x.com/SenatorHagerty
Get The Besties All-In Tequila:
https://tequila.allin.com
Join us at the All-In Summit:
https://allin.com/summit
Summit scholarship application:
http://bit.ly/4kyZqFJ
Follow the besties:
https://x.com/chamath
https://x.com/Jason
https://x.com/DavidSacks
https://x.com/friedberg
Follow on X:
https://x.com/theallinpod
Follow on Instagram:
https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod
Follow on TikTok:
https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod
Follow on LinkedIn:
https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod
Intro Music Credit:
https://rb.gy/tppkzl
https://x.com/yung_spielburg
Intro Video Credit:
https://x.com/TheZachEffect
Referenced in the show:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-16/trump-likely-to-fire-powell-soon-white-house-official-says
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/16/us/politics/trump-powell-firing-letter.html
https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-september?tid=1752872350388
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/15/cpi-inflation-report-june-2025.html
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US30Y
https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-remove-jerome-powell
https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-announce-as-next-fed-chair?tid=1752854752131
https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2025/07/15/congress/house-gop-crypto-bills-trump-00455645
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/15/us/politics/trump-ai-pittsburgh-speech.html
(0:00) The Besties welcome Gavin Baker back on the show!
(1:20) Nvidia balance sheet questions, CoreWeave IPO, M&A/IPO bounce back
(16:22) US vs China in AI: Manus, China building its own Nvidia, and more
(28:37) The Administration's endgame for tariffs
(53:05) Signalgate: context and fallout
(1:09:42) El Salvador deportations
Follow Gavin:
https://x.com/GavinSBaker
Follow the besties:
https://x.com/chamath
https://x.com/Jason
https://x.com/DavidSacks
https://x.com/friedberg
Follow on X:
https://x.com/theallinpod
Follow on Instagram:
https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod
Follow on TikTok:
https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod
Follow on LinkedIn:
https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod
Intro Music Credit:
https://rb.gy/tppkzl
https://x.com/yung_spielburg
Intro Video Credit:
https://x.com/TheZachEffect
Referenced in the show:
https://www.reuters.com/technology/coreweave-planning-cut-us-ipo-size-price-below-range-source-says-2025-03-27
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-adds-dozens-entities-export-restriction-list-2025-03-25
https://modelcontextprotocol.io/introduction
https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-plots-charging-20-000-a-month-for-phd-level-agents?rc=pxkrxo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A8wJc7vHcTs
https://x.com/JohnArnoldFndtn/status/1905296181208416744
https://x.com/chamath/status/1904547884877701610
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2025/03/trump-administration-accidentally-texted-me-its-war-plans/682151
https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/03/invocation-of-the-alien-enemies-act-regarding-the-invasion-of-the-united-states-by-tren-de-aragua
https://www.statista.com/statistics/696152/homicide-rate-in-el-salvador
https://x.com/Sec_Noem/status/1905034256826408982
(0:00) The Besties welcome Gavin Baker and recap ski week!
(5:38) Biggest Political Winner
(9:26) Biggest Political Loser
(17:34) Biggest Business Winner
(32:43) Biggest Business Loser
(46:54) Biggest Business Deal
(57:04) Most Contrarian Belief
(1:12:59) Best Performing Asset
(1:22:56) Worst Performing Asset
(1:30:19) Most Anticipated Trend
(1:38:59) Most Anticipated Media
(1:43:03) Super Predictions
(1:46:50) Bonus: Drones, UFOs, and more
Follow the besties:
https://x.com/chamath
https://x.com/Jason
https://x.com/DavidSacks
https://x.com/friedberg
Follow Gavin Baker:
https://x.com/GavinSBaker
Follow on X:
https://x.com/theallinpod
Follow on Instagram:
https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod
Follow on TikTok:
https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod
Follow on LinkedIn:
https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod
Intro Music Credit:
https://rb.gy/tppkzl
https://x.com/yung_spielburg
Intro Video Credit:
https://x.com/TheZachEffect
Referenced in the show:
https://shop.unitree.com/products/unitree-go2
https://shop.unitree.com/products/unitree-g1
https://a16zcrypto.com/posts/article/state-of-crypto-report-2024
https://x.com/chamath/status/1873144394100187263
https://polymarket.com/event/will-openai-become-a-for-profit-business-before-april-2025
(0:00) Bestie announcement!
(2:53) Gavin Baker and Joe Lonsdale join the show
(4:14) State of the Trump Bump: Debt focus, Deregulation, America's lucky position
(20:08) Trump nominates Paul Atkins as SEC Chair, replacing Gary Gensler: What this means for crypto and other markets
(41:07) Thoughts on Michael Saylor's Bitcoin play, state of defense tech, and the US/China AI competition
(49:25) xAI's massive GPU cluster, expanding to 1M GPUs, how Grok 3 will test AI scaling laws, and what's next
(1:08:28) UnitedHealth CEO murdered, reactions
Get virtual tickets for The All-In Holiday Spectacular!:
https://allin.com/events
Follow the besties:
https://x.com/chamath
https://x.com/Jason
https://x.com/DavidSacks
https://x.com/friedberg
Follow Gavin Baker:
https://x.com/GavinSBaker
Follow Joe Lonsdale:
https://x.com/JTLonsdale
Follow on X:
https://x.com/theallinpod
Follow on Instagram:
https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod
Follow on TikTok:
https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod
Follow on LinkedIn:
https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod
Intro Music Credit:
https://rb.gy/tppkzl
https://x.com/yung_spielburg
Intro Video Credit:
https://x.com/TheZachEffect
Referenced in the show:
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113603133222686186
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/04/business/trump-sec-paul-atkins.html
https://x.com/davidmarcus/status/1862654506774810641
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-05/convertible-bond-arbs-are-making-microstrategy-wall-street-s-hottest-trade
https://www.ft.com/content/9c0516cf-dd12-4665-aa22-712de854fe2f
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/12/04/nyregion/brian-thompson-uhc-ceo-shot
https://abcnews.go.com/US/man-shot-chest-midtown-manhattan-masked-gunman-large/story?id=116446382&cid=social_twitter_abcn
https://nypost.com/2024/12/06/media/taylor-lorenz-defends-unitedhealthcare-ceo-brian-thompson-jokes
My guest this week is Gavin Baker. Gavin is the managing partner and CIO of Atreides Management, and he has been on the show many times before. He is one of my favorite investors to talk to and this may be my favorite conversation with him. Gavin first started covering Nvidia as an investor at the turn of the millennium, making him the perfect guest to discuss all things AI and investing. There is so much detail in this discussion and I’m incredibly grateful to Gavin for sharing his wisdom with us again. Please enjoy this fantastic conversation with Gavin Baker.
For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page here.
-----
This episode is brought to you by Ramp. Ramp’s mission is to help companies manage their spend in a way that reduces expenses and frees up time for teams to work on more valuable projects. Ramp is the fastest-growing FinTech company in history and it’s backed by more of my favorite past guests (at least 16 of them!) than probably any other company I’m aware of. It’s also notable that many best-in-class businesses use Ramp—companies like Airbnb, Anduril, and Shopify, as well as investors like Sequoia Capital and Vista Equity. They use Ramp to manage their spending, automate tedious financial processes, and reinvest saved dollars and hours into growth. At Colossus and Positive Sum, we use Ramp for exactly the same reason. Go to Ramp.com/invest to sign up for free and get a $250 welcome bonus.
-----
This episode is brought to you by Tegus, where we're changing the game in investment research. Step away from outdated, inefficient methods and into the future with our platform, proudly hosting over 100,000 transcripts – with over 25,000 transcripts added just this year alone. Our platform grows eight times faster and adds twice as much monthly content as our competitors, putting us at the forefront of the industry. Plus, with 75% of private market transcripts available exclusively on Tegus, we offer insights you simply can't find elsewhere. See the difference a vast, quality-driven transcript library makes. Unlock your free trial at tegus.com/patrick.
-----
Invest Like the Best is a property of Colossus, LLC. For more episodes of Invest Like the Best, visit joincolossus.com/episodes.
Past guests include Tobi Lutke, Kevin Systrom, Mike Krieger, John Collison, Kat Cole, Marc Andreessen, Matthew Ball, Bill Gurley, Anu Hariharan, Ben Thompson, and many more.
Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here.
Follow us on Twitter: @patrick_oshag | @JoinColossus
Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com).
Show Notes:
(00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like the Best
(00:04:42) The Magnificent Seven and Tech Competition
(00:06:29) Generative AI and Scaling Laws
(00:08:36) Challenges in AI Infrastructure
(00:15:02) The Future of AI and Data Centers
(00:17:51) Efficiency in AI Models
(00:35:14) Synthetic Data and AI Training
(00:42:37) Inference and the Role of Smartphones
(00:48:35) Investment Implications in AI
(00:49:09) Opportunities for New Companies
(00:51:20) Challenges at the Application Layer
(00:52:25) AI's Impact on Advertising
(00:53:40) AI ROI Debate
(00:54:39) SaaS Metrics and AI Disruption
(00:55:59) AI-First Application Companies
(01:00:50) The Future of Robotics
(01:14:01) Leadership in Tech Giants
(01:24:05) The Evolution of Investing
This Week in Startups is brought to you by…
Squarespace. Turn your idea into a new website! Go to https://www.squarespace.com/twist for a free trial. When you’re ready to launch, use offer code TWIST to save 10% off your first purchase of a website or domain.
CommandBar. Seamlessly integrate an AI-powered guide into your software, making navigation intuitive and interactive.
Visit https://www.commandbar.com/twist to get a custom live demo.
Brex. the financial stack founders can bank on. Brex knows cash is king for startups, so they built a banking experience that takes every dollar further. Get the business account trusted by 1 in 3 US startups at https://www.brex.com/twist24
*
Todays show:
Alex leads us into two great talks from Liquidity Summit 2024.
First Jason sits down for a one-on-one with Valor’s Antonio Gracias (1:38), followed by a great talk with Gavin Baker of Atreides (39:01)
*
Timestamps:
(0:00) Teaser of today’s Liquidity Summit talks from Alex.
(1:13) Alex kicks off the show.
(1:38) Valor’s Antonio Gracias joins Jason
(4:26) Unbiased data and business models in AI
(10:02) Squarespace - Use offer code TWIST to save 10% off your first purchase of a website or domain at https://www.Squarespace.com/TWIST
(11:14) Achieving AGI and robots in real-world applications
(14:26) Venture capital dynamics and innovation
(18:09) Athena case study: Investor operational support
(22:05) CommandBar - Visit https://www.commandbar.com/twist to get a custom live demo.
(23:04) Traditional venture playbook and crossover hedge funds
(28:33) US balance sheet implications and emerging entrepreneurship regions
(33:39) Immigration policy's role in recruitment
(36:19) Investing in socially impactful companies
(38:09) Brex - Get the business account trusted by 1 in 3 US startups at https://www.brex.com/twist24
(39:01) Atreides Management’s Gavin Baker joins Jason
(47:38) The importance of investing in relationships
(54:32) Resilience in public equity investing and learning from failure
(1:00:29) AI adoption differences between startups and enterprises
(1:02:32) America's innovation through resilience and immigration
(1:03:43) Google and Apple's AI strategies and infrastructure
(1:11:32) Meta's strategic moves in search and the metaverse
*
Subscribe to the TWiST newsletter: https://www.ticker.thisweekinstartups.com
*
Subscribe to This Week in Startups on Apple: https://rb.gy/v19fcp
*
Check out Valor: https://www.valorep.com/
Check out Atreides: https://atreidesmgmt.com/
Follow Antonio:
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/antonio-p-gracias
Follow Gavin:
X: https://x.com/GavinSBake
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/gavinbaker-portfoliomanager/
*
Follow Alex:
X: https://x.com/alex
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/alexwilhelm/
*
Follow Jason:
X: https://twitter.com/Jason
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jasoncalacanis
*
Thank you to our partners:
(10:02) Squarespace - Use offer code TWIST to save 10% off your first purchase of a website or domain at https://www.Squarespace.com/TWIST
(22:05) CommandBar - Visit https://www.commandbar.com/twist to get a custom live demo.
(38:08) Brex - Get the business account trusted by 1 in 3 US startups at https://www.brex.com/twist24
*
Great 2023 interviews: Steve Huffman, Brian Chesky, Aaron Levie, Sophia Amoruso, Reid Hoffman, Frank Slootman, Billy McFarland
*
Check out Jason’s suite of newsletters: https://substack.com/@calacanis
*
Follow TWiST:
Substack: https://twistartups.substack.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/TWiStartups
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/thisweekin
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thisweekinstartups
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thisweekinstartups
*
Subscribe to the Founder University Podcast: https://www.founder.university/podcast
This Week in Startups is presented by:
Hampton. Are you a startup founder or CEO seeking expert advice? Join Hampton, the private, highly vetted community for high-growth founders. Get invaluable insights, connections, and support to accelerate your business at joinhampton.com/twist today!
Squarespace. Turn your idea into a new website! Go to Squarespace.com/twist for a free trial. When you’re ready to launch, use offer code TWIST to save 10% off your first purchase of a website or domain.
.Tech domains are the go-to namespace to build anything in tech… and home to the world’s most innovative startups. Secure your .Tech domain today and lock down a 1-year domain for $10, or a 5-year domain for $50 at go.tech/TWIST!
*
Today’s show:
Atreides Management’s Gavin Baker joins Jason to break down the current macro picture, the AI platform shift, and the reshuffling of the entire tech deck. (1:27) They also cover the potential impact of AI recursively improving itself and extinction risks (15:06) before discussing chip demand, Nvidia’s outlook, and more! (25:13) Then, Embroker's Chief Insurance Officer David Derigiotis explains how to differentiate your business with cybersecurity! (40:24)
Gavin's fireside chat was recorded live at LAUNCH Angel Summit in Napa.
*
Time stamps:
(0:00) Gavin and Jason on joining the resistance!
(1:27) Current macro picture, the AI platform shift, and how AI is reshuffling everything in tech
(13:42) Hampton - Join Hampton's community of high-growth founders today at https://joinhampton.com/twist
(15:06) Exponential compounding of generative AI, AGI chances, recursive AI improvement
(23:55) Squarespace - Use offer code TWIST to save 10% off your first purchase of a website or domain at https://Squarespace.com/TWIST
(25:13) Chip demand, Nvidia’s outlook, which high-end fields might be most at risk, extinction risks
(39:02) .Tech Domains - get a 1-year domain for $10 or a 5-year domain for $50 at https://go.tech/TWIST
(40:24) Embroker Chief Insurance Officer David Derigiotis gives a talk on how to differentiate your business with cybersecurity
*
Read LAUNCH Fund 4 Deal Memo: https://www.launch.co/four
Apply for Funding: https://www.launch.co/apply
Buy ANGEL: https://www.angelthebook.com
Great recent interviews: Steve Huffman, Brian Chesky, Aaron Levie, Sophia Amoruso, Reid Hoffman, Frank Slootman, Billy McFarland, PrayingForExits, Jenny Lefcourt
Check out Jason’s suite of newsletters: https://substack.com/@calacanis
*
Follow Jason:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/jason
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/jason
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jasoncalacanis
*
Follow TWiST:
Substack: https://twistartups.substack.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/TWiStartups
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/thisweekin
*
Subscribe to the Founder University Podcast: https://www.founder.university/podcast
*
All opinions expressed in this episode are solely the speakers’ own opinions and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of any firm affiliated with the speakers. This episode is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a basis for investment decisions. Clients of the speakers’ firms may maintain positions in the securities discussed.
(0:00) Antonio Gracias and Gavin Baker join to discuss SpaceX's Starship launch
(28:58) Fox News settles with Dominion Voting Systems, will pay $787M
(40:38) AI update: Reddit to start charging for training data, how the next startup bubble will materialize, navigating the AI "dust storm"
(53:49) Why AI is challenging/exciting to invest in right now, late-stage implosion, pay-to-play rounds
(1:21:26) Is crypto dead in America? Plus DeSantis vs Trump polling update and wrap
Follow the besties:
https://twitter.com/chamath
https://linktr.ee/calacanis
https://twitter.com/DavidSacks
https://twitter.com/friedberg
Follow the pod:
https://twitter.com/theallinpod
https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast
Intro Music Credit:
https://rb.gy/tppkzl
https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg
Intro Video Credit:
https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect
Referenced in the show:
https://twitter.com/GavinSBaker/status/1649107858267439108
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-65294084
https://twitter.com/thePrimalSpace/status/1649051677377560578
https://www.wsj.com/articles/spacex-starship-elon-musk-second-launch-attempt-bf932aaf
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1533408313894912001
https://www.reuters.com/technology/fcc-votes-approve-spacex-satellite-plan-official-2021-04-27
https://www.axios.com/2023/04/18/fox-news-settles-dominion-lawsuit
https://investor.foxcorporation.com/static-files/3b2bdb74-8ebe-4173-9f0f-ac18831ff094
https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2015/03/finland-home-of-the-103000-speeding-ticket/387484
https://twitter.com/KanekoaTheGreat/status/1648462770936115202
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/18/technology/reddit-ai-openai-google.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/20/alphabet-merges-ai-focused-groups-deepmind-and-google-research.html
https://twitter.com/chamath/status/1647010187377774596
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dal%C3%ADland-
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/20/business/buzzfeed-news-shut-down.html
https://www.vox.com/technology/2023/4/18/23688627/meta-layoffs-mark-zuckerberg-facebook-instagram-whatsapp
https://news.crunchbase.com/venture/series-c-funding-decline-q1-2023
https://www.theinformation.com/articles/tiger-global-managements-12-7-billion-venture-fund-records-20-loss
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory
https://www.wired.com/story/stack-overflow-will-charge-ai-giants-for-training-data
https://www.coindesk.com/business/2023/04/18/coinbase-could-move-away-from-us-if-no-regulatory-clarity-ceo-brian-armstrong
https://news.yahoo.com/poll-trumps-big-post-indictment-bounce-is-fading-fast-183753992.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/04/20/desantis-trump-new-hampshire-poll
My guest today is past guest Gavin Baker, managing partner and CIO of Atreides Management. Gavin’s focus is on consumer and tech growth investing, which makes him the perfect person to discuss the bloodbath we’ve seen in many growth equities over the past few months. We also cover inflation, semiconductors, and the disconnect between private and public markets. Please enjoy this conversation with the always great Gavin Baker.
For the full show notes, transcript, and links to the best content to learn more, check out the episode page here.
-----
This episode is brought to you by Canalyst. Canalyst is the leading destination for public company data and analysis. If you're a professional equity investor and haven't talked to Canalyst recently, you should give them a shout. Learn more and try Canalyst for yourself at canalyst.com/Patrick.
-----
This episode is brought to you by Lemon.io. The team at Lemon.io has built a network of Eastern European developers ready to pair with fast-growing startups. We have faced challenges hiring engineering talent for various projects - and Lemon.io offered developers for one-off projects, developers for full start to finish product development, or developers that could be add-ons to the existing team. Check out lemon.io/patrick to learn more.
-----
Invest Like the Best is a property of Colossus, LLC. For more episodes of Invest Like the Best, visit joincolossus.com/episodes.
Past guests include Tobi Lutke, Kevin Systrom, Mike Krieger, John Collison, Kat Cole, Marc Andreessen, Matthew Ball, Bill Gurley, Anu Hariharan, Ben Thompson, and many more.
Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here.
Follow us on Twitter: @patrick_oshag | @JoinColossus
Show Notes
[00:02:30] - [First question] - What it’s been like investing over the pandemic
[00:06:14] - The way he thinks about multiples, how they’ve done, and where they’re going
[00:09:14] - Themes that most have his attention in our current economic landscape
[00:19:25] - The ways in which wage inflation negatively impacts the market
[00:25:39] - How semiconductors have evolved and what matters in that subsector
[00:32:47] - Software volatility and the roller coaster it's been on lately
[00:35:52] - A future state where infrastructure overtakes apps
[00:41:03] - Key differences between internet and software and how they behave
[00:43:44] - The coming trend of the metaverse and his reaction to public adoption
[00:49:26] - Investor and business opportunities in adopting tech trends
[00:53:54] - An unfolding mismatch between private and public market multiples
[00:57:17] - How the competitive landscape of venture capital might evolve
[01:05:54] - Differences in recruiting and training talent in private and public markets
[01:10:20] - Sci-Fi novels that he’s read recently; Dune, A Wizard of Earthsea, Culture, Hyperion
My guest today is with past guest Gavin Baker, the founder and CIO of Atreides Management, LP. We discuss investing during a bear market and the major ways in which the COVID19 outbreak has dramatically altered the investment landscape. Please enjoy my second conversation with Gavin Baker.
This episode is brought to by Koyfin.
For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast.
Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub.
Follow Patrick on Twitter at @patrick_oshag
Show Notes
(1:40) – How he sees the markets right now
(3:06) – How he handles information uncertainty and the value spreads
(5:53) – Trading in today’s market and the volatility
(9:45) – How the economic activity squares with the amount of stimulus being pumped into the market
(13:11) – Market Wizards: Interviews with Top Traders
(13:56) – Asset tests for individual companies in this environment
(19:09) – This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly
(20:45) – His take on software companies during the crisis
(28:57) – Fast pace of change during extreme times of duress
(35:14) – Space as a service
(39:52) – Attention and time inside digital universes and how investors can take advantage
(46:17) – Why chaos is a ladder
(50:42) – It Was a Very Good Year: Extraordinary Moments in Stock Market History
Learn More
For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast.
Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub
Follow Patrick on Twitter at @patrick_oshag
My guest this week is Gavin Baker, the founder, and manager of Atreides Management. I met Gavin in the same way I meet many of the most interesting people, on twitter. His focus is on consumer and technology growth investing, which is the topic of our conversation. We discuss many of the largest trends in these sectors, several fascinating investment cases, and also explore the videogame industry in detail—which I found especially interesting. Please enjoy my conversation with Gavin Baker.
For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast.
Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub.
Follow Patrick on Twitter at @patrick_oshag
Show Notes
1:16 – (first question) – His unique view on the markets
4:00 – Distilling Apple as a growth investment
6:44 – What is the most important lever for Apple looking forward
9:01 – His view on Intel
11:03 – Most important technological changes that may dictate his investing strategy
16:20 – How do you look at a big idea, like AR, and then apply to an individual business
18:21 – Fortnite isn't a game, it's a place
18:26– Fortnite Is the Future, but Probably Not for the Reasons You Think
18:56 – His insight into video games and their ability to control attention
28:36 – How do you invest in the gaming sector
40:06 – Favorite video games
32:07 – Why gaming and customer sector allows him to find Alpha richness
34:17 – Being in the top 1% of knowledge before investing in a company
36:24 – His view on value investing today and, in the future,
41:15 – Increase of regulatory capture
42:01 – Headwinds to the tech companies today
43:50 – Thoughts on the Chinese internet market and how it impacts US markets
45:36 – How often companies look at China for ideas
46:21 – Role of alternative data in his process
49:36 – Big trends today we should be paying attention to
54:20 – the most interesting company he does not own
58:48 – Advice for new investors
1:00:17 – Non-obvious tech resources - TechMeme
1:00:50 – Favorite sci-fi character
1:01:19 – Kindest thing anyone has done for him
Learn More
For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast.
Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub
Follow Patrick on Twitter at @patrick_oshag
All opinions expressed by Patrick and podcast guests are solely their own opinions and do not reflect the opinion of O'shaughnessy asset management. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a basis for investment decisions. Clients of O'shaughnessy asset management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast. Clients of the podcast guest’s firm may also maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast.
.jpg?width=400){kind=small}
.jpg?width=400){kind=small}
