Brad Gerstner sits down with Gavin Baker and Andrew Fox of Atreides Management, alongside Altimeter partner Clark Tang, to break down one of the biggest questions in tech and markets: how should investors think about the SpaceX IPO?
They unpack the major levers behind SpaceX’s next phase: Starship rapid reusability, Starlink broadband and direct-to-cell, Elon’s emerging AI compute business, xAI’s model ambitions, the Cursor acquisition, and the long-term promise of orbital data centers.
The group also debates whether SpaceX is becoming a new kind of AI hyperscaler — “Elon Web Services” — and what that means for the future of compute, cloud, and frontier intelligence.
Then they dive into the latest model race: Fable 5, Mythos, ChatGPT 5.5, long-running agents, open source vs. frontier models, Nvidia vs. ASICs, the AI CapEx boom, and why the market may still be underestimating the scale of AI demand. Enjoy another episode of BG2!
Timestamps:
(00:40) Intro — SpaceX IPO in Two Days, Mythos Launches, Taiwan Takeaways
(03:05) xAI's Google & Anthropic Deals: Highest Operating Profit Per Gigawatt
(13:28) "Elon Web Services" — Nobody Had AI Compute in the SpaceX Model
(19:08) Data Centers Are Not Commodities: First-Principles Design
(26:01) Orbital Compute Economics: $5B Per Gigawatt in Space vs. $25B on the Ground
(29:25) The Most Underrated Variable: What Cursor Does for xAI's Model
(35:05) Bull & Bear Case — Can SpaceX Really 8X Revenue in 4 Years?
(37:00) Post-IPO Drawdowns, Lock-Ups & How to Size the Position
(43:56) Fable 5, Mythos & Why Snapshot Benchmarks Are Broken
(51:00) Frontier vs. Open Source: 90% of Revenue Accrues at the Frontier
(01:04:11) $1.5T in CapEx vs. $300B in AI Revenue — Does the Math Math?
(01:18:13) The Next $1 Trillion: Three Companies, Half the Time
Produced by Edward Schmidt & Dan Shevchuk
Music by Yung Spielberg
Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com
Follow:
Brad Gerstner @altcap https://x.com/altcap
Gavin Baker @GavinSBaker https://x.com/GavinSBaker
Clark Tang @_clarktang https://x.com/_clarktang
BG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod
(0:00) Brad Gerstner, Gavin Baker, and Kelly Rodriques join the Besties!
(0:47) Secondary Markets are Booming & Competing with IPOs
(3:10) Why Companies are Staying Private So Long?
(9:22) SPVs, the Forge-Schwab Deal, Democratizing Private Market Access
(13:28) Secondary Markets as Exit Liquidity for VCs
(27:00) The Private Market Bubble?
(32:03) Hottest Secondary Companies Right Now
Thanks to our partners for making this possible!
EY - Agentic AI is introducing a new investment discipline. As AI shifts to consumption-based models, EY connects spend to enterprise value.
https://www.ey.com/en_us/insights/ai/agentic-ai-token-costs?WT.mc_id=3501318&AA.tsrc=sponsorship
NYSE - Thank you to our partner, the New York Stock Exchange - a modern marketplace and exchange for building the future. It all happens at the NYSE.
https://www.nyse.com
Plaud - Never miss a moment. Plaud, our official wearable AI note-taking partner at All-In Liquidity Summit, captured every insight.
https://www.plaud.ai
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Intro Music Credit:
https://rb.gy/tppkzl
https://x.com/yung_spielburg
(0:00) Bestie intros: Brad Gerstner joins the show!
(4:22) Anthropic blocks Mythos release for security concerns: serious or marketing stunt?
(24:07) Are OpenAI and Anthropic trying to kill OpenClaw? Does Anthropic already have market dominance in AI coding?
(42:20) Anthropic $30B run rate, fastest revenue ramp ever, the TAM for intelligence
(58:01) Major vibe shift: Anthropic ripping, OpenAI reeling
(1:10:12) Iran War: Ceasefire, Israel's influence, market impact
Apply for Summit 2026:
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Intro Music Credit:
https://rb.gy/tppkzl
https://x.com/yung_spielburg
Intro Video Credit:
https://x.com/TheZachEffect
Referenced in the show:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INGOC6-LLv0
https://openai.com/index/better-language-models
https://cdn.openai.com/better-language-models/language_models_are_unsupervised_multitask_learners.pdf
https://x.com/steipete/status/2040811558427648357
https://x.com/juliusai/status/2041292301234999668
https://polymarket.com/event/ipos-before-2027
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/IGV:BATS
https://polymarket.com/event/anthropic-ipo-closing-market-cap-119
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116351998782539414
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116363336033995961
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116365796713313030
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/07/us/politics/trump-iran-war.html
https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesperson/2026/03/secretary-of-state-marco-rubio-remarks-to-press-6
In this BG2 guest interview, Altimeter Partner Apoorv Agrawal sits down with Nick Turley of OpenAI for a deep dive into how ChatGPT became one of the fastest-growing products in history—and what comes next.
They discuss how OpenAI thinks about retention and product metrics, why long-term engagement matters more than raw growth, and how ChatGPT gets the next billion users. The conversation explores the future of AI assistants: moving beyond chat into proactive agents that can take actions, complete long-horizon tasks, and integrate deeply into users’ daily lives.
Nick also shares how OpenAI balances product improvements with breakthrough research, how GPU constraints shape product decisions, and why building for both power users and everyday consumers is essential to discovering new use cases. The episode covers the evolution of ChatGPT pricing, the role of partnerships and distribution, and how OpenAI is thinking about scaling access to AI globally.
A must-watch discussion for builders, operators, and investors trying to understand the next phase of AI—from chatbots to true “super assistants.”
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(01:00) Nick Turley’s Journey to OpenAI
(02:15) ChatGPT’s North Star: Long-Term Retention
(04:15) Why ChatGPT’s Retention Curve “Smiles”
(06:45) What Drove ChatGPT’s Consumer Breakout
(10:15) How OpenAI Gets the Next Billion Users
(14:15) When ChatGPT Starts Taking Actions
(18:15) Why Coding Agents Came First
(21:00) Beyond Chatbots: The Super Assistant Vision
(24:00) Power Users vs. Casual Users
(28:00) Why ChatGPT Pricing Has to Change
(33:45) Partnerships, Distribution, and Product Tradeoffs
(37:15) GPUs, Scarcity, and the Cost of Scaling AI
(41:30) Shopping, ChatGPT as a Thought Partner, and Code Red
(51:45) OpenAI’s Future Interface, Rapid Fire, AI Jobs, and Nick’s AGI Moments
Produced by Dan Shevchuk
Music by Yung Spielberg
Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com
Follow:
Apoorv Agrawal @apoorv03 https://x.com/apoorv03
BG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod
(0:00) The Besties welcome Brad Gerstner!
(3:48) Economic fallout of the Iran War, escalation scenarios, impact on midterms
(19:18) Off ramp strategies, Gulf state involvement, the China angle
(27:05) Anthropic and OpenAI scaling revenue faster than any company ever
(46:11) AI's PR disaster, open source's future
(1:07:51) Washington passes "Millionaire Tax," Howard Schultz bails for Miami
Follow Brad:
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Intro Music Credit:
https://rb.gy/tppkzl
https://x.com/yung_spielburg
Intro Video Credit:
https://x.com/TheZachEffect
Referenced in the show:
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BZW00:NYMEX
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/11/cargo-ship-struck-strait-of-hormuz-uk-iran-war.html
https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/iran-war-us-israel-trump-03-12-26?post-id=cmmnhwyod000l3b6wdinc1dw5
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/ending-iran-war-quickly-carries-big-risks-for-the-u-s-and-allies-60c003de
https://polymarket.com/event/us-forces-enter-iran-by
https://x.com/altcap/status/2029223717356879931
https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/iea-proposes-largest-ever-oil-release-from-strategic-reserves-275f4e5c
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/iran-war-oil-operation-epic-fury-mojtaba-khamenei-0d2edb9c
https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/iran-war-us-israel-trump-03-12-26
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/2031827082934665293
https://polymarket.com/event/balance-of-power-2026-midterms
https://polymarket.com/event/march-inflation-us-annual
https://www.ft.com/content/7cab4ec7-4712-4137-b602-119a44f771de
https://www.axios.com/2025/05/28/ai-jobs-white-collar-unemployment-anthropic
https://www.axios.com/2026/03/06/pentagon-anthropic-amodei-apology
https://www.ft.com/content/97bda2ef-fc06-40b3-a867-f61a711b148b
https://x.com/WallStreetMav/status/2032115119879045512
https://x.com/TheChiefNerd/status/2032012809433723158
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/poll-majority-voters-say-risks-ai-outweigh-benefits-rcna262196
https://hai.stanford.edu/news/most-read-the-stanford-hai-stories-that-defined-ai-in-2025
https://x.com/DrTechlash/status/2030734402339365220
https://www.semafor.com/article/12/07/2025/ai-critics-funded-ai-coverage-at-top-newsrooms
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/howard-schultz-starbucks-ceo-leaving-seattle-washington-millionaire-tax/
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/13/howard-schultz-2020-taxes-1167363
https://x.com/chamath/status/2032135944284094910
https://www.hoover.org/research/net-present-value-billionaire-tax-act-assessment-fiscal-effects-californias-proposed
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapped-which-u-s-states-gained-the-most-residents-in-2025
https://www.sanders.senate.gov/press-releases/news-sanders-and-khanna-introduce-legislation-to-tax-billionaire-wealth-and-invest-in-working-families
In this BG2 guest interview, Altimeter partner Apoorv Agrawal sits down with Ali Ghodsi (Databricks) and Arvind Jain (Glean) for a candid, operator-level discussion on what’s actually working in enterprise AI—and what isn’t.
They unpack why 95% of AI projects fail, why LLMs are rapidly commoditizing, and why durable advantage is shifting to proprietary data, agentic systems, and workflow integration. The conversation dives deep into real-world use cases across finance, healthcare, and retail; the debate over whether we already have AGI; and how AI spend, CapEx, and valuation bubbles will realistically play out. A must-watch for builder, and investors navigating the AI transition inside real organizations.
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(01:00) Consumer AI vs. Enterprise Reality
(02:15) Why 95% of AI Projects Fail
(04:15) RBC, Merck, and 7-Eleven Use Cases
(06:45) What Actually Makes AI Work
(07:00) LLMs Are Commodities—Data Is the Moat
(08:45) Failed AI Bets at Databricks & Glean
(11:00) RPA vs. Generative AI
(14:15) Advice for CIOs Planning AI Budgets
(16:00) AI CapEx and the Revenue Math
(18:00) The Three Camps of AI
(21:00) Making AI Useful Inside Enterprises
(24:30) Why Apps Capture the Value
(30:00) The Future of UI, Voice, and Data Entry
(37:30) Rapid Fire: Winners, Bubbles, Long/Short
Produced by Dan Shevchuk
Music by Yung Spielberg
Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com
Follow:
Apoorv Agrawal @apoorv03 https://x.com/apoorv03
BG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod
(0:00) Brad Gerstner joins the show!
(0:49) OpenAI's rough week: Altman's controversial comments on BG2, CFO's "federal backstop" faux pas, clarifications
(18:33) Why Jensen Huang said "China is going to win the AI race."; the need for a federal framework on AI
(30:39) OpenAI's strengths and headwinds: breakout product, trust issues, competition, betting on the AI supercycle
(36:47) Holiday party announcement! allin.com/events for tickets
(39:19) State of the market, consumer is cracking, need for domestic/"main street" wins, is Trump losing the middle class?
(1:05:58) Zohran wins NYC, socialism's rise in America, solutions, should Republicans end the filibuster?
Join us at the All-In Holiday Spectacular!:
https://allin.com/events
Follow Brad:
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Follow the besties:
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Intro Music Credit:
https://rb.gy/tppkzl
https://x.com/yung_spielburg
Intro Video Credit:
https://x.com/TheZachEffect
Referenced in the show:
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/29/alphabet-google-q3-earnings.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/29/meta-q3-earnings-report-2025.html
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-05/apple-plans-to-use-1-2-trillion-parameter-google-gemini-model-to-power-new-siri
https://www.wsj.com/video/openai-wants-federal-backstop-for-new-investments/4F6C864C-7332-448B-A9B4-66C321E60FE7
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7392049356012507136/
https://x.com/DavidSacks/status/1986476840207122440
https://x.com/sama/status/1986514377470845007
https://www.ft.com/content/53295276-ba8d-4ec2-b0de-081e73b3ba43
https://x.com/nvidianewsroom/status/1986221177099194484
https://www.aipanic.news/p/the-ai-existential-risk-industrial
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q
https://x.com/MorningBrew/status/1986464568470888935
https://x.com/chamath/status/1986076707196162068
https://polymarket.com/event/new-york-city-mayoral-election
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2025-elections/new-york-city-mayor-results
https://x.com/JDVance/status/1986099131845136594
https://x.com/houmanhemmati/status/1980499276229931034
(0:00) Bestie intros: Welcome back Brad Gerstner!
(2:48) Israel-Hamas ceasefire, how Trump and his team got the deal done
(13:27) National Guard sent to Chicago to protect ICE Agents
(44:02) OpenAI's deal with AMD, state of the "AI Bubble"
(1:05:45) Circular AI deals: cause for concern or no big deal?
(1:15:00) What's behind the Gold rally?
(1:20:38) Polymarket receives $2B investment from NYSE owner ICE, future of prediction markets
Follow Brad:
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Intro Music Credit:
https://rb.gy/tppkzl
https://x.com/yung_spielburg
Intro Video Credit:
https://x.com/TheZachEffect
Referenced in the show:
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115340993884364431
https://x.com/RapidResponse47/status/1972726021196562494
https://x.com/JasonJournoDC/status/1976080696209760487
https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/opinions/2005/05/23/israels-lawyer/7ab0416c-9761-4d4a-80a9-82b7e15e5d22
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/10/09/gaza-ceasefire-deal-trump-nobel-prize
https://x.com/BillAckman/status/1976307397099471229
https://polymarket.com/event/will-hamas-release-all-israeli-hostages-by-october-31?tid=1760021581013
https://www.newsweek.com/ice-rappel-black-hawk-helicopters-chicago-10809228
https://www.chicago.gov/city/en/depts/mayor/press_room/press_releases/2025/october/city-property-executive-order.html
https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/2025/10/chicago-mayors-ice-free-zones-shield-violent-criminal-illegals-abandon-citizens
https://x.com/libsoftiktok/status/1965294885373947928
https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1972716966831120601
https://x.com/unlimited_ls/status/1975302286969631204
https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-approval-rating-boost-cities-crime-crackdown-10840101
https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2025/08/20/dc-poll-trump-crime-police/
https://marylandmatters.org/2025/09/05/moore-orders-state-police-to-assist-baltimore-cops-in-crime-reduction-efforts
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/west-wing-playbook-remaking-government/2025/04/28/musk-and-doge-have-a-poll-problem-00313461
https://x.com/wallstreetapes/status/1976030014614421936
https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1976020869752508907
https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openai-amd-deal-ai-chips-ed92cc42
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tether-gold-xaut-hits-1b-080222337.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/07/nyse-owner-intercontinental-exchange-2-billion-polymarket-stake.html
https://polymarket.com/event/will-polymarket-us-go-live-in-2025?tid=1760113275545
Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week, guest host Altimeter’s Apoorv Agrawal explores how OpenAI is reshaping enterprise with Sherwin Wu, Head of Engineering OpenAI Platform, and Olivier Godement, Head of Product OpenAI Platform. From T-Mobile’s AI voice support to Amgen’s drug breakthroughs to Los Alamos’ air-gapped supercomputer—this episode dives into the real world of AI at scale. Enjoy another episode of BG2!
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(01:50) OpenAI’s Enterprise Mission: Beyond ChatGPT
(06:00) Case Study: T-Mobile <> Voice & Support
(11:30) Case Study: Amgen <> Accelerating Drug Development
(13:45) Case Study: Los Alamos National Lab
(17:00) Why 95% of AI Deployments Fail?
(20:30) Physical vs Digital Autonomy: Scaffolding & Infrastructure
(26:00) GPT-5: Release, Benchmarks vs Behavior
(30:00) GPT-5 Feedback: Instruction Following, Hallucinations, Code Quality
(33:00) Multimodality: Text, Voice, and Video
(35:30) Audio: Realtime API vs Stitched Audio
(38:00) Model Customization & Reinforcement Fine-Tuning (RFT)
(43:00) Rapid Fire: Long/Short Picks
(1:03:00) Highlights and Lowlights @ OpenAI
Show Notes:
T-Mobile Partnership: https://www.t-mobile.com/news/business/t-mobile-launches-intentcx-with-openai
Amgen Partnership: https://openai.com/index/gpt-5-amgen/
Los Alamos Partnership: https://www.lanl.gov/media/news/0130-open-ai
MIT AI Report: https://mlq.ai/media/quarterly_decks/v0.1_State_of_AI_in_Business_2025_Report.pdf
Produced by Dan Shevchuk
Music by Yung Spielberg
Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com
Follow:
Brad Gerstner @altcap https://x.com/altcap
Bill Gurley @bgurley https://x.com/bgurley
BG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod
Apoorv Agrawal @apoorv03 https://x.com/apoorv03
Sherwin Wu @sherwinwu https://x.com/sherwinwu
Olivier Godement @oliviergodement https://x.com/oliviergodement
Today’s show: Alex moderates a TWIST VC Roundtable with Jason, Paige Doherty (Behind Genius), and Altimeter’s Megan Reynolds about the state of early-stage venture capital. They break down the rise of secondary markets as a key liquidity path for VCs, analyze the resurgence in M&A activity from major players like Meta, Databricks, and OpenAI, and question whether inflated ARR figures from YC startups are distorting valuations. Jason shares his year-zero investment thesis and offers tactical advice on secondary structuring and identifying high-quality revenue. Whether you're raising, investing, or building, this episode delivers essential insights into the evolving early-stage landscape.
Timestamps:
(0:00) Episode Teaser(1:28) Meet our panelists!(2:37) Will secondaries replace traditional M&A?(10:10) LinkedIn Ads - Get a $100 LinkedIn ad credit at http://www.linkedin.com/thisweekinstartups(14:28) Has M&A actually bounced back?(20:06) Pilot - Visit https://www.pilot.com/twist and get $1,200 off your first year.(25:35) Secondary market advice, just for founders(30:10) Retool - Visit https://www.retool.com/twist and try it out today.(32:49) Why is it so hard for emerging managers to raise funds?
(38:28) Seed funds: the math is not mathing(52:07) Why early investors become “collateral damage”(56:31) The importance of revenue quality in early-stage startups(1:06:43) Quick Fire Question Round!
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LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/paigedoherty/
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X: https://x.com/alex
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X: https://twitter.com/Jason
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jasoncalacanis
Thank you to our partners:
(10:10) LinkedIn Ads - Get a $100 LinkedIn ad credit at http://www.linkedin.com/thisweekinstartups
(20:06) Pilot - Visit https://www.pilot.com/twist and get $1,200 off your first year.
(30:10) Retool - Visit https://www.retool.com/twist and try it out today.
Great TWIST interviews: Will Guidara, Eoghan McCabe, Steve Huffman, Brian Chesky, Bob Moesta, Aaron Levie, Sophia Amoruso, Reid Hoffman, Frank Slootman, Billy McFarland
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Todays show:
Altimeter's Jamin Ball joins Alex Wilhelm to discuss VC-founder dynamics, fund returns, rapid fundraising, and its impact on M&A. They cover public vs. private valuations, startup liquidity, AI's influence, SaaS trends, and Jamin’s outlook on IPOs and exits.
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Timestamps:
(0:00) Jamin joins Alex to kick off the show
(6:30) Alignment of incentives between VCs and founders
(10:25) LinkedIn Jobs - Post your first job for free at https://www.linkedin.com/twist
(11:54) Venture capital allocation demand and its impact
(15:55) Comparison of returns between small and large venture funds
(21:54) Beehiiv - Get 30 days free and 20% off your first 3 months at https://www.beehiiv.com/twist
(23:23) Power laws in startups and venture capital's impact
(24:19) Effects of rapid fundraising cycles on founders
(31:33) CLA - Get started with CLA's CPAs, consultants, and wealth advisors now at https://claconnect.com/tech
(32:59) Raising large rounds and long-term commitments
(35:15) Venture capital's influence on startup M&A activity
(37:38) Public vs private market valuation disparities
(39:24) Future of startup liquidity and exit scenarios
(46:06) Proposals for realigning venture capital funds and founder incentives
(47:41) Impact of AI on startup growth and venture capital
(52:20) SaaS multiples and cloud software market analysis
(57:43) Software spending trends and startup optimism for 2024
(1:00:15) Procurement scrutiny in startup budgets and market differentiation
(1:01:17) Promising companies and Jamin Ball's investment outlook
(1:01:28) Expectations for IPOs and startup exits in the coming year
*
Mentioned on the show:
Join Jamin’s substack here: https://cloudedjudgement.substack.com/
Jamin’s article: https://cloudedjudgement.substack.com/p/clouded-judgement-102524-misaligned
Check out Altimeter: https://www.altimeter.com/home
Follow Bill Gurlery on X: https://x.com/bgurley
Subscribe to the TWiST500 newsletter: https://ticker.thisweekinstartups.com
Check out the TWIST500: https://www.twist500.com
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X: https://x.com/jaminball
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamin-ball-49366137
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Follow Alex:
X: https://x.com/alex
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/alexwilhelm
*
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X: https://twitter.com/Jason
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jasoncalacanis
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Thank you to our partners:
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(31:33) CLA - Get started with CLA's CPAs, consultants, and wealth advisors now at https://claconnect.com/tech
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Great TWIST interviews: Will Guidara, Eoghan McCabe, Steve Huffman, Brian Chesky, Bob Moesta, Aaron Levie, Sophia Amoruso, Reid Hoffman, Frank Slootman, Billy McFarland
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Substack: https://twistartups.substack.com
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Subscribe to the Founder University Podcast: https://www.youtube.com/@founderuniversity1916
Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they are joined by Jamin Ball (Partner at Altimeter) to discuss the state of venture capital and incentives, implications of overcapitalization, the future of power law returns, AI’s impact on investment strategies, the future of AI and CapEx, the market’s reactions to the 2024 election, the evolution of search and AI integration, Nasa, SpaceX, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2.
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(00:52) Bill’s Dad | from Nasa to SpaceX
(06:20) State of VC and Incentives w/ Jamin Ball
(12:31) Implications of Overcapitalization
(25:08) The Future of Power Law Returns
(38:28) The Impact of AI on Investment Strategies
(46:00) Future of AI and Capital Expenditure
(52:21) Market Reactions to 2024 Election
(01:00:45) Evolution of Search and AI Integration
Produced by Benny Beausoleil
Music by Yung Spielberg
Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com
Follow:
Brad Gerstner @altcap
Bill Gurley @bgurley
BG2 Pod @bg2pod
Jamin Ball @jaminball
Shownotes
Clouded Judgement Substack
#BillGurley #BradGerstner #Bg2Pod
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Todays show:
Meghan Reynolds takes the stage at Liquidity Summit 2024 to discuss the intricacies of raising capital and pitching to VCs. Meghan dives into many topics including the importance of relationships (3:07), fund size rationalization (20:36), market sentiment (25:55), and other crucial aspects of successful fundraising!
*
Timestamps:
(0:00) Meghan Reynolds takes the stage at Liquidity Summit 2024
(3:07) Meghan Reynolds’ talk “Relationship Advice: Of the LP / GP Sort”
(9:43) LinkedIn Ads - Get a $100 LinkedIn ad credit at http://www.linkedin.com/thisweekinstartups
(10:59) Client service in investor relations and fundraising strategies
(15:07) The complexity factor in raising capital
(19:19) Runway - Sign up at https://runway.com/twist to get your first 3 months free.
(20:36) Rationalizing fund size, securing re-ups, and worst pitching practices
(25:55) Market sentiment and single deal SPV dynamics
(29:34) Beehiiv - Get 30 days free and 20% off your first 3 months at https://www.beehiiv.com/twist
(31:02) VC allocations, private credit, and market dynamics
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Check out Altimeter: https://www.altimeter.com
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Follow Meghan
X: https://x.com/MeghanKReynolds
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/meghankreynolds
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LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jasoncalacanis
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(29:34) Beehiiv - Get 30 days free and 20% off your first 3 months at https://www.beehiiv.com/twist
*
Great 2023 interviews: Steve Huffman, Brian Chesky, Aaron Levie, Sophia Amoruso, Reid Hoffman, Frank Slootman, Billy McFarland
*
Check out Jason’s suite of newsletters: https://substack.com/@calacanis
*
Follow TWiST:
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Today’s show:
Dara Khosrowshahi joins Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner, and Jason Calacanis to discuss his initial reservations about joining Uber and how he overcame them (14:57), the early magic of Uber that captivated investors (22:36), a deep dive into Uber's future plans (45:50), and much more!
*
Timestamps:
(0:00) Dara Khosrowshahi joins Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner, & Jason Calacanis to discuss all things Uber
(2:41) Setting the stage for Uber entering 2024
(4:52) Untold parts of Uber's story
(09:38) Gusto - Get three months free when you run your first payroll at http://www.Gusto.com/twist
(11:38) Bill Gurley discusses Dara's selection as CEO
(14:57) Dara's initial reservations about joining Uber and how he overcame them
(20:57) Dara’s discomfort in the free-money environment of ZIRP
(21:43) Paintbrush - Visit http://www.getpaintbrush.com to see if you qualify for a $50K startup loan in less than 2 minutes
(22:36) Exploring the early magic of Uber that captivated investors
(26:27) How valuations impact founder mindset
(30:49) Squarespace - Use offer code TWIST to save 10% off your first purchase of a website or domain at https://www.Squarespace.com/twist
(32:17) Discussing the relevance of secondaries in the near future
(35:02) Breaking down some Uber myths and Dara’s focus on drivers
(45:50) A deep dive into Uber's future plans
(51:31) Uber’s strategy with upselling as AI enters the conversation
(58:04) Bill Gurley on joining Zillow’s board and how innovation is needed in the real estate industry
(1:05:27) Brad Gerstner on markets
*
Subscribe to This Week in Startups on Apple: https://rb.gy/v19fcp
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Check out Uber: https://www.uber.com
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LINKS:
Silicon Valley clip referenced:
https://twitter.com/StephNass/status/1745132141652877788
*
Thanks to our partners:
(09:38) Gusto - Get three months free when you run your first payroll at http://www.Gusto.com/twist
*Gusto pricing shown in ad is based on pricing prior to March 2025
(21:43) Paintbrush - Visit http://www.getpaintbrush.com to see if you qualify for a $50K startup loan in less than 2 minutes
(30:49) Squarespace - Use offer code TWIST to save 10% off your first purchase of a website or domain at https://www.Squarespace.com/twist
*
X:
https://twitter.com/Jason
https://twitter.com/dkhos
https://twitter.com/altcap
https://twitter.com/bgurley
LinkedIn:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/jasoncalacanis
*
Great 2023 interviews: Steve Huffman, Brian Chesky, Aaron Levie, Sophia Amoruso, Reid Hoffman, Frank Slootman, Billy McFarland
*
Check out Jason’s suite of newsletters: https://substack.com/@calacanis
*
Follow TWiST:
Substack: https://twistartups.substack.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/TWiStartups
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/thisweekin
*
Subscribe to the Founder University Podcast: https://www.founder.university/podcast
Jamin Ball is a Partner @ Altimeter Capital where he sits on the board of Airbyte, Clickhouse, dbt Labs, Prisma, Tabular. Jamin has also led investments in Deel, MotherDuck, Personio and Starburst. Prior to Altimeter, Jamin spent 5 years at Redpoint where he led investments in Workato, Monte Carlo, Cityblock Health, Root Insurance.
Ed Sim is one of the best seed round investors in venture as the Founder and Managing Partner @ Boldstart, Ed focuses specifically on developer, infra and SaaS at pre-seed and seed round. Over the last decade, Ed has backed some of the best including Snyk, BigID, Kustomer, Front and Superhuman.
In Today's Episode We Discuss:
1. How to Invest Successfully in 2024:
What are the three biggest mistakes growth investors can make in 2024?
Why should founders not start a platform company?
What were Jamin and Ed's biggest mistakes from the ZIRP era?
How does Jamin justify paying an $8BN price for Hopin? What were his lessons?
2. The M&A Markets in 2024:
Did Figma kill the M&A markets for 2024? What should we expect in M&A?
Why will private companies buying private companies be a massive segment in 2024?
What are Ed and Jamin's biggest tips to founders considering selling their company in 2024?
3. When Will IPOs Come Back:
What will be the catalyst to the opening of the IPO markets?
Will Stripe and Databricks go public in 2024? What others should we expect?
What are the three requirements for a company to go public in 2024?
4. Firesales: Investors Need Cashback:
Why does Ed believe now is the time in the cycle where late-stage investors want cash back to distribute back to their LPs or to recycle?
What should we expect to see in terms of acqui-hires and firesales?
What are the different incentives when comparing founders vs early stage VCs vs late stage VCs when it comes to acquisitions?
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Today’s show:
Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner, and Jason Calacanis join David Weisburd to discuss the market downturn's impact on startups, including shutdowns and shifting investment strategies (1:29). They also debate the AI boom (54:50), chatbots' future potential and hype (1:01:11), and which tech giants may perform best or worst in 2024 (1:20:32).
*
Timestamps:
(0:00) David Weisburd hosts Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner, & Jason Calacanis to discuss the state of tech markets
(1:29) Startup shutdowns in 2023 vs dotcom crash
(3:52) Perspective on current market from Bill Gurley
(7:52) Brad's outlook on startup shutdowns continuing in 2024
(11:48) OpenPhone - Get 20% off your first six months at https://openphone.com/twist
(13:16) Different investor perspectives based on investment stage
(16:47) Altimeter's recent investing activity
(25:32) DevSquad - Get an entire product team for the cost of one US developer plus 10% off at http://devsquad.com/twist
(26:30) Reflecting on past IPOs and paths to building businesses for growth
(36:40) Squarespace - Use offer code TWIST to save 10% off your first purchase of a website or domain at https://Squarespace.com/twist
(38:07) State of Series B/C deals in 2023 vs 2021 peak
(42:42) Why now is a great time to start a company
(47:17) Jason's theories for success in venture
(49:42) Abundance of technical talent in Silicon Valley and impact of AI on company size and competition
(54:50) AI investments in 2024
(1:01:11) Launguage models raising large rounds quickly and the potential for LLMs to hit a ceiling soon
(1:05:18) The best case for Meta being a leader in AI and Apple's position
(1:08:55) Importance of voice recognition for AI interfaces, challenges of enabling transactions via AI, and consumers choosing services via AI
(1:20:32) Picks for best and worst performing tech giants in 2024
*
LINKS:
Unicorn Investors article: https://news.crunchbase.com/venture/top-unicorn-investors-eoy-2023/
Bill Gurley's Above the Crowd article: https://abovethecrowd.com/2011/05/24/all-revenue-is-not-created-equal-the-keys-to-the-10x-revenue-club/
*
Follow David
X: https://twitter.com/DWeisburd
David's Podcast: https://limitedpartnerpodcast.com/
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X: https://twitter.com/altcap
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X: https://twitter.com/bgurley
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X: https://twitter.com/jason
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/jason
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jasoncalacanis
*
Great 2023 interviews: Steve Huffman, Brian Chesky, Aaron Levie, Sophia Amoruso, Reid Hoffman, Frank Slootman, Billy McFarland
*
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*
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(0:00) Bestie intros: Chamath flies public + Poker recap
(8:12) FED pauses hikes momentarily, IPO window status, state of the market
(25:10) Film, cold plunge, and sauna talk
(33:25) AI's impact on tech and growth stocks surging, Google's position, AI's "$20T question"
(50:27) Jay Trading beating the market, how Brad formulates and sizes public bets, how GPs should handle distributions, CalPERS mistakes
(1:04:22) Reddit moderators in revolt and how this issue might reshape the future of social apps
(1:15:11) Funding landscape for AI startups is overheating: Mistral's $100M+ Seed round, importance of constraints, and more
(1:44:17) Science corner: Understanding the Bill Gates-funded mosquito project in Colombia
Follow the besties:
https://twitter.com/chamath
https://linktr.ee/calacanis
https://twitter.com/DavidSacks
https://twitter.com/friedberg
https://twitter.com/altcap
Follow the pod:
https://twitter.com/theallinpod
https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast
Intro Music Credit:
https://rb.gy/tppkzl
https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg
Intro Video Credit:
https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect
Referenced in the show:
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/14/fed-rate-decision-june-2023.html
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS
https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/intel-talks-be-anchor-investor-arm-ipo-source-2023-06-13
https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/softbanks-arm-registers-blockbuster-us-ipo-sources-2023-04-29
https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-to-acquire-arm-for-40-billion-creating-worlds-premier-computing-company-for-the-age-of-ai
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-13/databricks-hits-1-billion-in-annual-sales-while-adding-data-warehouse-tool
https://www.gamesindustry.biz/nvidias-acquisition-of-arm-cancelled-due-to-significant-regulatory-challenges
https://bard.google.com
https://coda.io/@presh-dineshkumar/jay-trading
https://www.ft.com/content/86b49e10-3dd2-4427-b70b-993bad47b061
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/14/calpers-to-increase-venture-capital-investments-despite-tech-turmoil.html
https://www.theverge.com/2023/6/12/23755974/reddit-subreddits-going-dark-private-protest-api-changes
https://reddark.untone.uk
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/18/technology/reddit-ai-openai-google.html
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-20554441
https://digiday.com/media/twitters-third-party-app-problem
https://www.wired.com/2015/07/reddit-ceo-ellen-pao-steps-down-huffman-replacement
https://www.platformer.news/p/meta-is-building-a-decentralized
https://www.ft.com/content/cf939ea4-d96c-4908-896a-48a74381f251
https://twitter.com/natfriedman/status/1668650915505803266
https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/1523379957/oculus-rift-step-into-the-game
https://openai.com/blog/function-calling-and-other-api-updates
https://twitter.com/RobertKennedyJr/status/1667616444996104196
https://www.womenshealthnetwork.com/hormonal-imbalance/sunscreen-ingredients-that-mess-with-your-hormones
This Week in Startups is presented by:
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Today’s show:
First up, Jason does a full breakdown of what’s going on at Reddit, and why this is happening now (1:21). Then, Brad Gerstner joins to break down the state of the markets in 2023 (18:28), his “Time to Get Fit” letter to Meta (30:06), and more!
Brad’s fireside chat was recorded live at LAUNCH Angel Summit in Napa.
Follow Brad: https://twitter.com/altcap
*
Time stamps:
(0:00) Jason tees up today’s segments!
(1:21) Breaking down the Reddit situation: Why 2000’s-era web companies relied on third-party apps built on their API
(3:10) Origin and current state of the Reddit revolt, CEO Steve Huffman’s AMA and comments
(10:27) Jason’s hot takes on how to solve the third-party app API pricing issue, Reddit’s IPO price, and more
(17:00) LinkedIn Jobs - Post your first job for free at https://linkedin.com/twist
(18:28) Brad Gerstner joins live from Angel Summit! Importance on non-consensus conviction, first-party research, how Brad first invested in Facebook
(29:00) Vanta - Get $1000 off your SOC 2 at https://vanta.com/twist
(30:06) Brad breaks down the greatness in Zuckerberg and Meta’s reaction to his “Time to Get Fit” letter
(34:08) Current state of the markets
(38:05) iConnections - Get 20% off iConnections Miami 2024 event at http://iconnections.io/twist
(39:48) Predicting what the AI innovation cycle will look like when compared to past cycles: pc, internet, mobile, cloud; why now is the most important time for AI investing
*
Read LAUNCH Fund 4 Deal Memo: https://www.launch.co/four
Apply for Funding: https://www.launch.co/apply
Buy ANGEL: https://www.angelthebook.com
Great recent interviews: Brian Chesky, Aaron Levie, Sophia Amoruso, Reid Hoffman, Frank Slootman, Billy McFarland, PrayingForExits, Jenny Lefcourt
Check out Jason’s suite of newsletters: https://substack.com/@calacanis
*
Follow Jason:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/jason
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/jason
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jasoncalacanis
*
Follow TWiST:
Substack: https://twistartups.substack.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/TWiStartups
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/thisweekin
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Subscribe to the Founder University Podcast: https://www.founder.university/podcast
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Today’s show:
Altimeter’s Brad Gerstner and Mubadala's Ibrahim Ajami join Jason to discuss their first UAE impressions (1:33), how the country is attracting startup talent, unclogging the capital allocator log jam, and more (19:43)!
*
Follow Brad: https://twitter.com/altcap
Follow Ibrahim: https://twitter.com/IbrahimAjami
*
Time stamps:
(0:00) Brad and Ibrahim join Jason
(1:33) First impressions of the UAE
(10:25) Veed - Head to https://www.veed.io/pricing?utm_campaign=TWIS&utm_medium=Marketing&utm_source=YouTube and start creating professional-quality videos in minutes!
(11:55) The story of Mubadala
(19:43) Attracting talent to the UAE
(26:53) OpenPhone - Get 20% off your first six months at https://openphone.com/twist
(28:21) The shifting perspective of the UAE and the opportunity it presents
(35:07) The level of curiosity in Abu Dhabi
(37:02) iConnections - Get 20% off iConnections Miami 2024 event at http://iconnections.io/twist
(38:21) Adjusting to the changing market
(41:58) Mubadala’s portfolio and investing in SoftBank’s Vision Fund
(49:40) Getting fit
(56:27) Unclogging the manager log jam and the denominator problem
(1:04:59) Investing in relationships
(1:11:38) The progression of the UAE
*
Read LAUNCH Fund 4 Deal Memo & Apply for Funding
Buy ANGEL
Great recent interviews: Brian Chesky, Aaron Levie, Sophia Amoruso, Reid Hoffman, Frank Slootman, Billy McFarland, PrayingForExits, Jenny Lefcourt
Check out Jason’s suite of newsletters: https://substack.com/@calacanis
*
Follow Jason:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/jason
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/jason
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jasoncalacanis
*
Follow TWiST:
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Today’s show:
Jason and Brad speak with Mubadala Capital’s Head of Ventures, Ibrahim Ajami, at Hub71 in the UAE. The three discuss how startups can survive and thrive in an economic downturn (1:02) before diving into the sacrifices that founders must make to create an incredible product. (14:16) They also explain how the AI revolution will affect software, startups, capital allocators, and more! (40:36)
Follow Mubadala: https://twitter.com/MubadalaCapital
Follow Ibrahim: https://twitter.com/IbrahimAjami
Follow Hub71: https://twitter.com/hub71ad
Follow Brad: https://twitter.com/altcap
Time stamps:
(0:00) Nick kicks off the show
(1:02) Surviving the downturn
(12:46) Squarespace - Use offer code TWIST to save 10% off your first purchase of a website or domain at https://Squarespace.com/TWIST
(14:16) Sacrificing to build a great product
(26:34)Trovata - Use code TWIST at https://trovata.io/twist for 30% off one year of premium features, like AI forecasting
(27:47) Brad’s letter to Mark Zuckerberg and AI creating ultra-efficient startups
(39:02) OpenPhone - Get 20% off your first six months at https://openphone.com/twist
(40:36) The AI revolution
(50:48) The implications of AI on the software industry
(55:50) Creating the Silicon Valley culture
(59:32) Reflecting on the success of the Launch Accelerator
(1:06:23) Building culture within your firm and dealing with failure
(1:19:03) Opinions on WFH
(1:25:05) Recognizing product velocity
(1:29:11) Advice for young founders
(1:34:47) Advice for founders in emerging markets
Read LAUNCH Fund 4 Deal Memo & Apply for Funding
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Great recent interviews: Brian Chesky, Aaron Levie, Sophia Amoruso, Reid Hoffman, Frank Slootman, Billy McFarland, PrayingForExits, Jenny Lefcourt
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We sit down with Altimeter Capital’s head of Capital Formation Meghan Reynolds (who previously was TPG’s global co-head of Capital Formation for 10 years) to talk about everything that goes into the LP - GP relationship at venture funds. We cover how (and why) to think strategically about Capital Formation, why it should be about so much more the just investor relations/fundraising, and also why and how it’s going to change dramatically over the next decade. This was a GREAT conversation, and very relevant for GPs, LPs, and also company founders and employees heading into 2023 and post zero-interest-rate capital markets.
Sponsors:
Sierra: https://bit.ly/acquiredsierra
Links:
Follow Meghan on Twitter!
Note: Acquired hosts and guests may hold assets discussed in this episode. This podcast is not investment advice, and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. You should do your own research and make your own independent decisions when considering any financial transactions.
Brad Gerstner of Altimeter Capital joins Molly and Jason for an epic Friday show. They chop it up about the state of the economy, what it actually means to be founder friendly and discuss which big tech companies are“fit”. (1:24)
(0:00) J+M Kick off the show
(1:24) Brad Gerstner joins Molly and Jason
(10:28) Odoo - Get your first app free and a $1000 credit at https://odoo.com/twist
(11:38) Brad presents on interest rates, inflation and business multiples
(26:32) LinkedIn Marketing - Get a $100 LinkedIn ad credit at https://linkedin.com/thisweekinstartups
(28:05) The Fed’s core mission
(37:54) Being founder friendly
(39:42) Brad’s letter to Meta
(48:33) Companies that need to get fit
(53:00) Google and Meta’s fitness
(58:08) The curse of the money-printing machine
(1:00:01) Google vs ChatGPT
(1:05:05) Is Uber fit?
FOLLOW Jason: https://linktr.ee/calacanis
FOLLOW Molly: https://twitter.com/mollywood
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Chris Sacca is the Founder and Chairman @ Lowercase Capital, one of the best performing funds in the history of venture capital with a portfolio including Uber, Stripe, Twitter, Instagram, Twilio, Docker and many more.
From interviewing some of the world's richest married couples, how did gaining wealth change their relationship and marriage?
What does Chris do to actively ensure his children remain hungry and know the value of money?
Chamath Palihapitiya is Founder & CEO @ Social Capital. Social's portfolio includes the likes of Slack, Yammer, Front, Intercom and Carta to name a few.
What does Chamath mean when he says we need to think through the mindset of "infinite games" not finite games? How does this change how you think about money?
How does Chamath think about his relationship to risk today as a result?
Brad Gerstner is the Founder and CEO of Altimeter. Brad's notable deals that he has helped lead include Snowflake, Mongo, Bytedance, Gusto, Unity, Okta, dbt, Modern Treasury, EPIC Games, Hotel Tonight and Zillow.
What is the most important thing parents can do to ensure that despite wealth, their children remain grounded and ambitious?
Why does Brad, despite being a billionaire, still live in a modest house and not spend on the excesses of life? How does Brad embrace essentialism with wealth?
Cyan Banister is one of the most successful and renowned early-stage investors in the last decade. Her portfolio includes the likes of SpaceX, Uber, Affirm, Opendoor Postmates, Niantic and Thumbtack to name a few.
Why did Cyan used to hate money? Why was she "anti-capitalist"?
How does Cyan approach risk management today? Why does she invest every dollar she makes back into the ecosystem?
George Zachary is a General Partner @ CRV, one of the nation's oldest and most successful early-stage venture capital firms with a portfolio including the likes of Airtable, DoorDash, Dropbox, Niantic and many more.
What did George learn about how the way people view you changes with your increasing wealth?
Why does George believe rich people like to hang out with rich people?
Biz Stone is best known as the Co-Founder of Twitter and Medium. Biz is also an investor in the likes of Slack, Square, Intercom, Beyond Meat and Blue Bottle Coffee.
What does Biz mean when he says, "wealth only serves to amplify the person you are?"
(0:00) Bestie intros: Brad Gerstner joins in place of Sacks, and brigadoons!
(2:02) Ye's current situation and acquisition of Parler
(14:17) Snap drops ~30%, corporate misgovernance, super-voting shares
(32:53) Macro outlook, Stability AI $101M fundraise, VC fund metrics
(1:05:38) The difficulty of active stock picking and valuing businesses
(1:21:38) Lyft vs Gavin Newsom on Prop 30, PSA from Chamath
Follow the besties:
https://twitter.com/chamath
https://linktr.ee/calacanis
https://twitter.com/DavidSacks
https://twitter.com/friedberg
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https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast
Intro Music Credit:
https://rb.gy/tppkzl
https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg
Intro Video Credit:
https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect
Referenced in the show:
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/SNAP:NYSE
https://www.statista.com/statistics/545967/snapchat-app-dau
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/10/20/musk-twitter-acquisition-staff-cuts
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-17/digital-media-firm-stability-ai-raises-funds-at-1-billion-value
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1520643441994387456
https://www.wsj.com/articles/lyft-battles-gavin-newsom-over-california-measure-to-fund-evs-11665864256
https://voterguide.sos.ca.gov/propositions/30
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S
Brad Gerstner is the Founder and CEO of Altimeter, a life-cycle technology investment firm that manages public and private portfolios. Brad has personally participated in more than 100 IPOs as a sponsor, anchor, and investor. Brad's notable deals include Snowflake, Mongo, Bytedance, Gusto, Unity, Okta, dbt, Modern Treasury, EPIC Games, Hotel Tonight, and Zillow. Prior to founding Altimeter, Brad was a 3-time co-founder where he sold all three businesses (to IAC, Google, and Marchex), a founding principal at General Catalyst; a securities lawyer, a former Deputy Secretary of State of Indiana, and a pilot.
In Today's Episode with Brad Gerstner We Discuss:
1.) From Humble Beginnings in Indiana to 100 IPOs:
When did Brad realize his original love of finance and entrepreneurship?
What one single question does Brad ask all potential new recruits to determine if they have hustle?
What does Brad know now that he wishes he had known at the beginning of his career?
2.) The Power Law and Supercycles:
What is a power law? Why is it the single most important thing in investing?
How do the best investors in the world build a framework around supercycles?
How does Brad approach market sizing? How does Brad think about market creation when aligning that to his thesis of investing in power laws?
How does Brad determine if a large opportunity is a "super-cyle" or a short, time-stamped fad that is unsustainable? How does Brad assess the importance of market timing?
3.) Building Anti-Fragile Portfolios:
Portfolio Construction: Why does Brad disagree that the answer to risk mitigation is portfolio diversification? How many companies is enough companies for a diverse portfolio?
Price Sensitivity: How does Brad reflect on his own relationship to price? How does this process and mindset change on re-investments? What is needed for Brad to re-invest?
Time to Exit: How does Brad analyze when is the right time to exit a position? What are the single biggest mistakes people make when it comes to timing their exit?
4.) The Venture Landscape: Today, What is Happening?
Why does Brad believe what has happened over the last 24 months is a great disservice to founders?
What are the biggest examples of a complete lack of investor discipline?
Why does Brad believe that for all positions valued over $500M, we should apply a 20% discount?
Is today's pricing actually just the new normal? How has the public market pricing impacted the deployment of growth stage checks? How will this play out in the next 12 months?
Why does Brad believe there is "not blood on the streets yet"? How does the speed of interest rate change impact our ecosystem so dramatically?
Items Mentioned in Today's Episode:
Brad's Favourite Book: The Snowball: Warren Buffet and the Business of Life
0:00 Bestie Guestie Brad Gerstner joins the show
1:00 All-In Summit recap and best moments
16:45 State of the markets, $ZM/$SNOW earnings, how much more uncertainty?
29:53 $SNAP drops after miscalculating earnings targets, understanding signs of a true bottom, the end of entitlement
51:10 Down market end game, investor decisions, reasons for optimism, quick reset potential
1:05:17 Sacks explains his concept for "default investable," Besties share thoughts on proactive layoffs and course correction
1:12:27 Addressing Uvalde, legislative disappointment, potential preventative solutions
Follow the besties:
https://twitter.com/chamath
https://linktr.ee/calacanis
https://twitter.com/DavidSacks
https://twitter.com/friedberg
https://twitter.com/altcap
Follow the pod:
https://twitter.com/theallinpod
https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast
Intro Music Credit:
https://rb.gy/tppkzl
https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg
Intro Video Credit:
https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect
Referenced in the show:
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/SPY:NYSEARCA
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.DJI:INDEXDJX
https://investors.zoom.us/news-releases/news-release-details/zoom-video-communications-reports-financial-results-first
https://investors.snowflake.com/news/news-details/2022/Snowflake-Reports-Financial-Results-for-the-First-Quarter-of-Fiscal-2023/default.aspx
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10YIE
https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1529100065331200005
https://twitter.com/BillAckman/status/1529133144540078083
https://layoffs.fyi
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/SNAP:NYSE
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/24/snaps-down-32percent-and-its-dragging-other-stocks-down-with-it.html
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/FB:NASDAQ
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/GOOG:NASDAQ
https://nypost.com/2022/05/13/netflix-tells-woke-workers-to-quit-if-they-are-offended-culture-memo
https://twitter.com/JeffBezos/status/1525309091970699265
https://twitter.com/DavidSacks/status/1529119829080150016
https://twitter.com/DavidSacks/status/1528102541723979776
https://sacks.substack.com/p/the-burn-multiple-51a7e43cb200
https://elections.bradyunited.org/take-action/nra-donations-116th-congress-senators
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mass_shootings_in_the_United_States#/media/File:Total_Deaths_in_US_Mass_Shootings_1982-2021.jpg
https://twitter.com/Jason/status/1529843255176663040
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/01/business/coronavirus-gun-sales.html
https://twitter.com/Jason/status/1529504198974263296
This conversation was recorded LIVE at the All-In Summit in Miami and included slides. To watch on YouTube, check out our All-In Summit playlist: https://bit.ly/aisytplaylist
0:00 Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner break down the state and historical significance of 2022's market downturn
12:27 How VCs will handle capital commitments from LPs, underwriting startups in the new reality
24:14 Bull run mistakes, why VCs don't underwrite lower valuations, handling distributions
33:52 Gurley's take on WeCrashed & Super Pumped TV series, how sophisticated investors got "gaslit" by the market, influx of capital creating consumer-surplus businesses
47:54 Brad predicts the market for next year, Bill gives post-Benchmark plans
Follow the besties:
https://twitter.com/chamath
https://linktr.ee/calacanis
https://twitter.com/DavidSacks
https://twitter.com/friedberg
Follow the pod:
https://twitter.com/theallinpod
https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast
Intro Music Credit:
https://rb.gy/tppkzl
https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg
Intro Video Credit:
https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect
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