The SpaceX IPO, Fable 5, AI Capex Update & Market Check w/ Gavin Baker, Andrew Fox & Clark Tang | BG2
Brad Gerstner sits down with Gavin Baker and Andrew Fox of Atreides Management, alongside Altimeter partner Clark Tang, to break down one of the biggest questions in tech and markets: how should investors think about the SpaceX IPO?
They unpack the major levers behind SpaceX’s next phase: Starship rapid reusability, Starlink broadband and direct-to-cell, Elon’s emerging AI compute business, xAI’s model ambitions, the Cursor acquisition, and the long-term promise of orbital data centers.
The group also debates whether SpaceX is becoming a new kind of AI hyperscaler — “Elon Web Services” — and what that means for the future of compute, cloud, and frontier intelligence.
Then they dive into the latest model race: Fable 5, Mythos, ChatGPT 5.5, long-running agents, open source vs. frontier models, Nvidia vs. ASICs, the AI CapEx boom, and why the market may still be underestimating the scale of AI demand. Enjoy another episode of BG2!
Timestamps:
(00:40) Intro — SpaceX IPO in Two Days, Mythos Launches, Taiwan Takeaways
(03:05) xAI's Google & Anthropic Deals: Highest Operating Profit Per Gigawatt
(13:28) "Elon Web Services" — Nobody Had AI Compute in the SpaceX Model
(19:08) Data Centers Are Not Commodities: First-Principles Design
(26:01) Orbital Compute Economics: $5B Per Gigawatt in Space vs. $25B on the Ground
(29:25) The Most Underrated Variable: What Cursor Does for xAI's Model
(35:05) Bull & Bear Case — Can SpaceX Really 8X Revenue in 4 Years?
(37:00) Post-IPO Drawdowns, Lock-Ups & How to Size the Position
(43:56) Fable 5, Mythos & Why Snapshot Benchmarks Are Broken
(51:00) Frontier vs. Open Source: 90% of Revenue Accrues at the Frontier
(01:04:11) $1.5T in CapEx vs. $300B in AI Revenue — Does the Math Math?
(01:18:13) The Next $1 Trillion: Three Companies, Half the Time
Produced by Edward Schmidt & Dan Shevchuk
Music by Yung Spielberg
Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com
Follow:
Brad Gerstner @altcap https://x.com/altcap
Gavin Baker @GavinSBaker https://x.com/GavinSBaker
Clark Tang @_clarktang https://x.com/_clarktang
BG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod
ChatGPT – The Super Assistant Era | BG2 Guest Interview
In this BG2 guest interview, Altimeter Partner Apoorv Agrawal sits down with Nick Turley of OpenAI for a deep dive into how ChatGPT became one of the fastest-growing products in history—and what comes next.
They discuss how OpenAI thinks about retention and product metrics, why long-term engagement matters more than raw growth, and how ChatGPT gets the next billion users. The conversation explores the future of AI assistants: moving beyond chat into proactive agents that can take actions, complete long-horizon tasks, and integrate deeply into users’ daily lives.
Nick also shares how OpenAI balances product improvements with breakthrough research, how GPU constraints shape product decisions, and why building for both power users and everyday consumers is essential to discovering new use cases. The episode covers the evolution of ChatGPT pricing, the role of partnerships and distribution, and how OpenAI is thinking about scaling access to AI globally.
A must-watch discussion for builders, operators, and investors trying to understand the next phase of AI—from chatbots to true “super assistants.”
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(01:00) Nick Turley’s Journey to OpenAI
(02:15) ChatGPT’s North Star: Long-Term Retention
(04:15) Why ChatGPT’s Retention Curve “Smiles”
(06:45) What Drove ChatGPT’s Consumer Breakout
(10:15) How OpenAI Gets the Next Billion Users
(14:15) When ChatGPT Starts Taking Actions
(18:15) Why Coding Agents Came First
(21:00) Beyond Chatbots: The Super Assistant Vision
(24:00) Power Users vs. Casual Users
(28:00) Why ChatGPT Pricing Has to Change
(33:45) Partnerships, Distribution, and Product Tradeoffs
(37:15) GPUs, Scarcity, and the Cost of Scaling AI
(41:30) Shopping, ChatGPT as a Thought Partner, and Code Red
(51:45) OpenAI’s Future Interface, Rapid Fire, AI Jobs, and Nick’s AGI Moments
Produced by Dan Shevchuk
Music by Yung Spielberg
Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com
Follow:
Apoorv Agrawal @apoorv03 https://x.com/apoorv03
BG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod
AI Enterprise - Databricks & Glean | BG2 Guest Interview
In this BG2 guest interview, Altimeter partner Apoorv Agrawal sits down with Ali Ghodsi (Databricks) and Arvind Jain (Glean) for a candid, operator-level discussion on what’s actually working in enterprise AI—and what isn’t.
They unpack why 95% of AI projects fail, why LLMs are rapidly commoditizing, and why durable advantage is shifting to proprietary data, agentic systems, and workflow integration. The conversation dives deep into real-world use cases across finance, healthcare, and retail; the debate over whether we already have AGI; and how AI spend, CapEx, and valuation bubbles will realistically play out. A must-watch for builder, and investors navigating the AI transition inside real organizations.
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(01:00) Consumer AI vs. Enterprise Reality
(02:15) Why 95% of AI Projects Fail
(04:15) RBC, Merck, and 7-Eleven Use Cases
(06:45) What Actually Makes AI Work
(07:00) LLMs Are Commodities—Data Is the Moat
(08:45) Failed AI Bets at Databricks & Glean
(11:00) RPA vs. Generative AI
(14:15) Advice for CIOs Planning AI Budgets
(16:00) AI CapEx and the Revenue Math
(18:00) The Three Camps of AI
(21:00) Making AI Useful Inside Enterprises
(24:30) Why Apps Capture the Value
(30:00) The Future of UI, Voice, and Data Entry
(37:30) Rapid Fire: Winners, Bubbles, Long/Short
Produced by Dan Shevchuk
Music by Yung Spielberg
Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com
Follow:
Apoorv Agrawal @apoorv03 https://x.com/apoorv03
BG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod
All things AI w @altcap @sama & @satyanadella. A Halloween Special. 🎃🔥BG2 w/ Brad Gerstner
Brad Gerstner sits down with Satya Nadella (Microsoft) and Sam Altman (OpenAI) to unpack the $3 trillion AI buildout transforming technology, business, and the global economy. They dive deep into the OpenAI–Microsoft partnership, how it unlocked massive scale in the cloud, and what it reveals about the future of intelligence and capital.Nadella breaks down how Microsoft is expanding Azure and Copilot to meet explosive demand. Altman shares his view on progress, power, and the human drive to push boundaries. A candid, energizing conversation about building the future at scale. Enjoy another episode of BG2!
(00:00) Intro
(02:28) Microsoft’s Investment in OpenAI
(03:19) The Nonprofit Structure and Its Impact
(05:46) Health, AI Security, and Resilience
(07:50) Models, Exclusivity, and Distribution
(08:58) Revenue Sharing and AGI Milestones
(11:38) OpenAI’s Growth and Compute Commitments
(15:21) Compute Constraints and Scaling
(21:27) The Future of AI Devices and Consumer Use
(24:31) Regulation and the Patchwork Problem
(28:01) Looking Ahead to 2026 and Beyond
(37:10) Microsoft’s Strategic Value from OpenAI
(57:15) The Economics of AI and SaaS
(1:04:28) Productivity, Jobs, and the Age of AI
(1:10:43) Reindustrialization of America
Produced by Dan ShevchukMusic by Yung Spielberg
Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com
Follow:Brad Gerstner @altcap https://x.com/altcap
BG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod
AI Bubble, Stablecoin Boom, and Runnin' Down a Dream | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner
Pre-Order Runnin' Down a Dream now: https://a.co/d/0oIPPve
Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week, they unpack the $3T AI buildout, circular revenue red flags, and whether the boom is becoming a bubble. They dive into the rise of stablecoins and the new financial rails reshaping money, the fight over AI regulation in America, and Bill’s next chapter—his new book Runnin' Down a Dream and what it means to build a career you actually love. Enjoy another episode of BG2!
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(02:00) Two Years of BG2
(03:45) Bill Stepping Back to Write His Book
(06:00) Runnin' Down a Dream
(07:00) The AI CapEx Bubble?
(09:30) Sham vs. Real Transactions in AI
(11:00) Microsoft–OpenAI Credits & Cloud Economics
(13:00) Nvidia’s Investments: Healthy or Hype?
(17:00) CoreWeave, Hidden Leverage & Demand Risks
(19:15) $3 Trillion CapEx: Are We Overbuilding AI?
(21:45) The MAG5 CapEx Surge: Too Much, Too Fast?
(24:30) Meta’s CapEx Comeback & AI ROI
(25:30) OpenAI’s Race for Escape Velocity
(28:30) AI Regulation: State Patchwork Madness
(30:30) Why Federal Preemption Is Critical
(33:15) The Colorado & California AI Acts
(35:00) Stablecoin Surge: $18T in Settlements
(36:45) Gurley’s Crypto Conversion
(38:30) From PIX to FedNow: The Future of Digital Money
(41:00) Coinbase, Circle, and the 4% Yield Revolution
(43:00) Why Visa & Banks Fear Stablecoins
(45:00) Gurley: “I’m Jumping on the Crypto Train”
(46:00) Brad on Invest America (Trump Accounts)
(49:00) Implementation Timeline & Treasury Update
(50:30) Bill’s Book: Runnin' Down a Dream
(53:15) The Great Career Reset: Passion vs. Grind
(55:00) Bezos’ Regret Minimization Framework
(57:00) Who the Book Is For
(59:00) Gurley’s Next Mission
Show Notes:
All-In Summit: Bill Gurley presents 2,851 Miles: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F9cO3-MLHOM
Plain English: This Is How the AI Bubble Could Burst: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/this-is-how-the-ai-bubble-could-burst/id1594471023?i=1000728026459
Bezos’ Regret Minimization Framework: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwG_qR6XmDQ
Produced by Dan Shevchuk
Music by Yung Spielberg
Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com
Follow:
Brad Gerstner @altcap https://x.com/altcap
Bill Gurley @bgurley https://x.com/bgurley
BG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod
NVIDIA: OpenAI, Future of Compute, and the American Dream | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner
Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week, Brad and Clark Tang sit down with Jensen Huang, founder & CEO of NVIDIA, for a sweeping deep dive on the new era of AI. From the $100B partnership with OpenAI to the rise of AI factories, sovereign AI, and protecting the American Dream—this episode explores how accelerated computing is reshaping the global economy. NVIDIA, OpenAI, hyperscalers, and global infrastructure: the AI race is on. Don’t miss this must-listen BG2.
(00:00) Intro
(0:37) The Year in AI Recap
(3:24) OpenAI Stargate & Nvidia Investment
(8:41) Nvidia Accelerated Compute TAM
(18:55) $NVDA ROI – Glut or Bubble?
(27:45) Roundtripping Claims
(31:10) Annual Release Cadence & Extreme Co-design
(40:45) Future of ASICs & Economics
(53:47) Nvidia's Competitive Moat
(56:55) Elon, X.ai & Colossus 2
(58:47) Sovereign AI & Global Buildout
(1:02:21) The AI Administration
(1:07:43) Chinese AI Chips & NVIDIA’s Role
(1:17:24) H-1B, Talent, & the American Dream
(1:29:33) Invest America & American Right to Rise
(1:37:40) The Future Ahead
Produced by Dan Shevchuk
Music by Yung Spielberg
Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com
Follow:
Brad Gerstner @altcap https://x.com/altcap
Bill Gurley @bgurley https://x.com/bgurley
BG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod
Inside OpenAI Enterprise: Forward Deployed Engineering, GPT-5, and More | BG2 Guest Interview
Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week, guest host Altimeter’s Apoorv Agrawal explores how OpenAI is reshaping enterprise with Sherwin Wu, Head of Engineering OpenAI Platform, and Olivier Godement, Head of Product OpenAI Platform. From T-Mobile’s AI voice support to Amgen’s drug breakthroughs to Los Alamos’ air-gapped supercomputer—this episode dives into the real world of AI at scale. Enjoy another episode of BG2!
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(01:50) OpenAI’s Enterprise Mission: Beyond ChatGPT
(06:00) Case Study: T-Mobile <> Voice & Support
(11:30) Case Study: Amgen <> Accelerating Drug Development
(13:45) Case Study: Los Alamos National Lab
(17:00) Why 95% of AI Deployments Fail?
(20:30) Physical vs Digital Autonomy: Scaffolding & Infrastructure
(26:00) GPT-5: Release, Benchmarks vs Behavior
(30:00) GPT-5 Feedback: Instruction Following, Hallucinations, Code Quality
(33:00) Multimodality: Text, Voice, and Video
(35:30) Audio: Realtime API vs Stitched Audio
(38:00) Model Customization & Reinforcement Fine-Tuning (RFT)
(43:00) Rapid Fire: Long/Short Picks
(1:03:00) Highlights and Lowlights @ OpenAI
Show Notes:
T-Mobile Partnership: https://www.t-mobile.com/news/business/t-mobile-launches-intentcx-with-openai
Amgen Partnership: https://openai.com/index/gpt-5-amgen/
Los Alamos Partnership: https://www.lanl.gov/media/news/0130-open-ai
MIT AI Report: https://mlq.ai/media/quarterly_decks/v0.1_State_of_AI_in_Business_2025_Report.pdf
Produced by Dan Shevchuk
Music by Yung Spielberg
Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com
Follow:
Brad Gerstner @altcap https://x.com/altcap
Bill Gurley @bgurley https://x.com/bgurley
BG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod
Apoorv Agrawal @apoorv03 https://x.com/apoorv03
Sherwin Wu @sherwinwu https://x.com/sherwinwu
Olivier Godement @oliviergodement https://x.com/oliviergodement
China, China, China. Breaking Down China’s Tech Surge | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner
Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week, they dive deep into China’s explosive innovation across AI and EVs, the rise of open-source models, lessons for U.S. competitiveness, the real story on tariffs and trade—and what America must do to win the global tech race. Enjoy another episode of BG2!
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(01:20) OpenAI, Anthropic, Private Market Overheating
(03:30) China's Role in the Global Tech Order
(04:50) Why Bill Went to China
(06:40) Dan Wang's Breakneck: Engineers vs Lawyers
(10:30) Xiaomi, BYD, and Auto Innovation
(14:00) Factory Productivity, Automation, and the Jobs Debate
(15:20) Open Source Model Culture in China
(19:30) Can the US Compete Without Reform?
(23:30) Tariffs, Trade Deals, and a Path to Cooperation
(28:00) Waymo, Baidu, and Cost Innovation
(33:00) Is China Winning Global Trade?
(36:30) Debunking the Subsidy Narrative
(38:30) What the CEOs Who Visit China Actually Say
(41:30) China's AI Ecosystem: DeepSeek, Qwen, Alibaba Cloud
(44:00) Open Source in China and the US: Strategic Choices
(48:00) VC Pullback from China & What's Still Happening on the Ground
(53:00) China's New K-Visa vs US Skilled Immigration Policies
(56:30) Gurley: Read Dan Wang’s Breakneck, Watch the Ground Game
(01:03:00) VC Pullback from China
Show Notes:
Open Source Development in China https://merics.org/sites/default/files/2021-05/MERICS%20Primer%20Open%20Source%202021_0.pdf
Lei Jun 2024 Annual Speech: https://www.youtube.com/live/l5f3wvLwLXY
Produced by Dan Shevchuk
Music by Yung Spielberg
Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com
Follow:
Brad Gerstner @altcap https://x.com/altcap
Bill Gurley @bgurley https://x.com/bgurley
BG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod
China Open-Source, Compute Arms Race, Reordering Global Trade | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner
Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week, they discuss open-source models in China and the US, the compute arms race, tariffs and the reordering of global trade, and more. Enjoy another episode of BG2!
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(3:55) Open-Source Models in China
(17:54) Future of American Open-Source Models
(26:30) Compute Arms Race
(47:05) China, Tariffs, and Reordering of Global Trade
Show Notes:
Artificial Analysis - Intelligence vs. Price
Mary Meeker Bond Deck
Produced by Benny Beausoleil
Music by Yung Spielberg
Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com
Follow:
Brad Gerstner @altcap
Bill Gurley @bgurley
BG2 Pod @bg2pod
Michael Dell – Invest America Act Becomes Law, AI Talent Wars, Compute Demand, Market Update | BG2
Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week, they welcome Michael Dell to discuss the Invest America Act, lessons learned from the 90’s, government spending, budget deficit, the AI talent war, AI's Role in Economic Growth and Productivity, the explosion in AI compute and demand, the markets, and more. Enjoy another episode of BG2!
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(4:13) Lessons from the 90’s at Dell
(8:37) Invest America Act Signed Into Law
(27:12) Government Spending and Budget Deficit
(36:05) The AI Talent War
(46:25) AI's Role in Economic Growth and Productivity
(53:42) AI Compute–Explosion in Demand
(1:03:53) Market Check
Show Notes:
Invest America
Next Gen Personal Finance
Play Nice But Win: A CEO's Journey from Founder to Leader
Milken Institute: The Economic Impact of Invest America Accounts
Produced by Benny Beausoleil
Music by Yung Spielberg
Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com
Follow:
Brad Gerstner @altcap
Bill Gurley @bgurley
BG2 Pod @bg2pod
Michael Dell @MichaelDell
Coatue Pt2. Open AI’s Kevin Weil Dives into All Things ChatGPT | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week, recording from the Coatue East Meets West stage, they welcome OpenAI CPO Kevin Weil to discuss all things OpenAI. Enjoy another episode of BG2!
Show Notes:
Coatue EMW 2025 Slides
Produced by Benny Beausoleil
Music by Yung Spielberg
Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com
Follow:
Brad Gerstner @altcap https://x.com/altcap
Bill Gurley @bgurley
Kevin Weil @kevinweil
BG2 Pod @bg2pod
Coatue’s Laffont Brothers. AI, Public & VC Mkts, Macro, US Debt, Crypto, IPO's, & more | BG2
Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week, they welcome Coatue’s Thomas and Philippe Laffont to discuss the AI Super cycle, Stablecoin and crypto, consumer AI, NVIDIA GPU’s, Macroeconomics, publc markets, VC markets, M&A’s, insights for founders and CEO’s, and more. Enjoy another episode of BG2!
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(02:36) The AI Super Cycle
(07:47) Stablecoin & Cryptocurrency
(16:19) Consumer AI & Impact on $GOOG
(22:54) GPU Allocation v Cloud Revenue Market Share
(28:56) AI Impact on Macro + Debt
(35:20) Private Markets, IPO’s, M&A’s
(45:59) Golden Age of Margin Expansion
(51:48) Jevon’s Paradox
(53:19) Insights for Founders and CEOs
Show Notes:
Coatue EMW 2025 Slides
Produced by Benny Beausoleil
Music by Yung Spielberg
Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com
Follow:
Brad Gerstner @altcap https://x.com/altcap
Bill Gurley @bgurley https://x.com/bgurley
BG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod
China, AI Immigration, Rare Earths & Chips, Tariffs, Market Check | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week, they discuss the pace of AI and data walls, China’s startups, immigration and talent acquisition, rare earths, chips, China trade deal, corporate governance, Delaware incorporation rights, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2!
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(04:24) Pace of AI + Data Walls
(11:43) China's 1000 Startup Strategy
(26:18) Talent Acquisition and Immigration Policies
(36:24) Rare Earths, Chips / China Trade Deal
(53:46) Corporate Governance and Delaware Dilemna
Show Notes:
Reddit v. Anthropic
China’s “Thousand Startups Bloom”
Produced by Benny Beausoleil
Music by Yung Spielberg
Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com
Follow:
Brad Gerstner @altcap
Bill Gurley @bgurley
BG2 Pod @bg2pod
AI, Middle East, China, Tariffs, Recon Bill, Invest America | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week, they discuss the overturning of the AI Diffusion Rule, Brad’s trip to the Middle East, Middle East Deals, China Tariffs, Reconciliation Bill, Invest America, Delaware Incorporation Rights, Momentum in Crypto, Open Source AI in China, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2!
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(02:02) AI Diffusion Rule and Middle East Deals
(20:31) China Tariff Deal
(31:10) Reconciliation Bill
(44:06) Invest America inclusion in the bill
(49:09) Delaware Incorporation Rights
(59:51) Major Momentum in Crypto
(01:06:28) Open Source AI in China
Show Notes:
WSJ - The Tech Industry Is Huge–and Europe’s Share of It Is Very Small
Welcome to the China Hawk Industrial Complex
China's Baidu to make latest Ernie AI model open-source as competition heats up
Lodestar Multipliers in Delaware and Federal Attorney Fee Awards
Produced by Benny Beausoleil
Music by Yung Spielberg
Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com
Follow:
Brad Gerstner @altcap https://x.com/altcap
Bill Gurley @bgurley https://x.com/bgurley
BG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod
Tariffs, Free Trade, Export Controls, H20 & Rare Earth Ban | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they revisit arguments about free trade, and discuss updates on tariff negotiations, export controls, the new AI cold war, NVIDIA H20 chip ban, rare earth ban, DeepSeek, Tesla, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2!
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(02:15) Complex Systems
(06:00) Tariff Negotiations & Free Trade
(23:19) Export Controls: AI War, H20 & Rare Earth Ban
(42:29) New AI Cold War & Zero Sum Game
(52:37) $TSLA & Market Check
Show Notes:
Financial Times - US rare earth champion faces trade war test after tariffs halt China sales
CNBC - U.S. chip controls will benefit China’s Nvidia rivals like Huawei: Analysts
Project Syndicate - Trump’s $16 Trillion Trade Blind Spot
NYTimes - I Just Saw the Future. It Was Not in America (Thomas L. Friedman)
Ezra Klein Podcast feat. Thomas Friedman
John Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs | All-In Summit 2024
Reuters - China hits back at US tariffs with export controls on key rare earths
NYTimes - Nvidia Says U.S. Will Restrict Sales of More of Its A.I. Chips to China
Produced by Benny Beausoleil
Music by Yung Spielberg
Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com
Follow:
Brad Gerstner @altcap
Bill Gurley @bgurley
BG2 Pod @bg2pod
Liberation Day, Tariffs, US v China Open Source, OpenAI Fundraise, $CRWV, TikTok | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they discuss market uncertainty, globalism and tariffs, M&A, Wiz and GOOG, NVDA GTC, consumer AI demand, AI unit economics, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2!
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(02:20) Liberation Day & Tariffs
(19:18) US Open Source vs China Open Source
(34:34) OpenAI Fundraise
(52:25) Coreweave IPO & AI Demand
(01:04:03) Rumors on TikTok deal
Produced by Benny Beausoleil
Music by Yung Spielberg
Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com
Follow:
Brad Gerstner @altcap
Bill Gurley @bgurley
BG2 Pod @bg2pod
NVDA GTC, M&A Wiz / Goog $32 B Deal, April 2 Tariff Uncertainty; Huawei Belt & Road; ChatGPT
Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they discuss market uncertainty, globalism and tariffs, M&A, Wiz and GOOG, NVDA GTC, consumer AI demand, AI unit economics, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2!
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(02:21) Market Uncertainty
(07:28) Globalism and Tariff Policies
(25:07) $GOOG Acquisition of Wiz + M&A Environment
(40:33) $NVDA Market Position
(55:37) Government Regulations & Impact on AI
(1:04:45) Consumer AI Demand
(1:10:33) AI Unit Economics
Produced by Benny Beausoleil
Music by Yung Spielberg
Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com
Follow:
Brad Gerstner @altcap
Bill Gurley @bgurley
BG2 Pod @bg2pod
Market Uncertainty, Tariffs, M&A, Wiz and GOOG, NVDA GTC | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they discuss market uncertainty, globalism and tariffs, M&A, Wiz and GOOG, NVDA GTC, consumer AI demand, AI unit economics, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2!Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(02:21) Market Uncertainty(07:28) Globalism and Tariff Policies(25:07) $GOOG Acquisition of Wiz + M&A Environment (40:33) $NVDA Market Position(55:37) Government R...
Grok 3, AI Memory & Voice, China, DOGE, Public Market Pull Back | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they discuss Grok 3, AI memory, voice, and evaluations, China, DOGE, the public market pullback, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2!
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(01:40) Grok 3
(05:55) Grok’s Leverage of X Platform
(07:25) AI Consumer Market & SEO
(23:04) AI Memory
(26:15) AI Voice
(29:05) Future AI Assets
(33:29) AI Acceleration in China
(36:09) Regulatory Challenges
(37:46) AI CapEx and Investing Dynamics
(48:38) Government Spending + DOGE
(1:00:51) Golden State Warriors
Produced by Benny Beausoleil
Music by Yung Spielberg
Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com
Follow:
Brad Gerstner @altcap
Bill Gurley @bgurley
BG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod
DeepSeek, Open Source, Tariffs, DOGE, Market Impact | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they discuss DeepSeek, globalism vs national interests, Trump tariffs, open source, DOGE, & more. . Enjoy another episode of BG2!
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(03:20) DeepSeek & Open Source
(37:03) Trump Tariffs
(50:31) DOGE
(01:04:19) Tech and Political Uncertainty
Produced by Benny Beausoleil
Music by Yung Spielberg
Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com
Follow:
Brad Gerstner @altcap https://x.com/altcap
Bill Gurley @bgurley https://x.com/bgurley
BG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod
Stargate, Executive Orders, TikTok, DOGE, Public Valuations | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they are joined by a surprise guest, and discuss Stargate, executive orders, TikTok, DOGE, Public Valuations & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2!
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(01:21) Stargate
(15:07) Dylan Patel and Semianalysis take on Stargate
(17:56) Stargate’s Impact on AI Competitive Landscape
(29:03) DeepSeek
(32:03) Special Guest Rene Haas (CEO of ARM Holdings)
(49:46) DeepSeek continued
(51:53) Trumps Executive Orders & Regulatory Freeze
(54:10) Coordination in AI Legistlation
(59:38) US National Debt and Balancing the Budget
(1:01:08) TikTok
(1:05:48) Tech Check
Produced by Benny Beausoleil
Music by Yung Spielberg
Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com
Follow:
Brad Gerstner @altcap
Bill Gurley @bgurley
Rene Haas @renehaas237
BG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod
Market Predictions, Rates & Inflation, DOGE, CES, AI Compute | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they discuss Brad’s public market predictions, AI enthusiasm and fears, interest rates, inflation, DOGE, federal budget analysis, big tech capex, scaling inference, Satya Nadella, Jensen Huang, Elon Musk, AI reasoning models, chain of thought, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2!
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(02:58) Frontline Ideas for 2025
(07:02) The Bogeyman (Interest Rates and Inflation)
(09:21) Mega Cap Valuations & Expectations
(14:02) Big Tech CapEx
(16:51) Scaling Inference
(20:11) Future of AI
(39:50) Role of Power in AI Development
(42:58) Interest Rates & Economic Growth
(45:11) Federal Spending & DOGE
(54:15) Regulatory Landscape for AI
(01:01:27) Co-opetition in AI
(01:17:06) Reasoning Models & Chain of Thought
Produced by Benny Beausoleil
Music by Yung Spielberg
Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com
Follow:
Brad Gerstner @altcap
Bill Gurley @bgurley
BG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod
AI Semiconductor Landscape feat. Dylan Patel | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they are joined by Dylan Patel, Founder & Chief Analyst at SemiAnalysis, to discuss origins of SemiAnalysis, Google's AI workload, NVIDIA's competitive edge, the shift to GPUs in data centers, the challenges of scaling AI pre-training, synthetic data generation, hyperscaler capital expenditures, the paradox of building bigger clusters despite claims that pretraining is obsolete, inference-time compute, NVIDIA's comparison to Cisco, evolving memory technology, chip competition, future predictions, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2!
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(01:50) Dylan Patel Backstory
(02:36) SemiAnalysis Backstory
(04:18) Google's AI Workload
(06:58) NVIDIA's Edge
(10:59) NVIDIA's Incremental Differentiation
(13:12) Potential Vulnerabilities for NVIDIA
(17:18) The Shift to GPUs: What It Means for Data Centers
(22:29) AI Pre-training Scaling Challenges
(29:43) If Pretraining Is Dead, Why Bigger Clusters?
(34:00) Synthetic Data Generation
(36:26) Hyperscaler CapEx
(38:12) Pre-training and Inference-tIme Reasoning
(41:00) Cisco Comparison to NVIDIA
(44:11) Inference-time Compute
(53:18) The Future of AI Models and Market Dynamics
(01:00:58) Evolving Memory Technology
(01:06:46) Chip Competition
(01:07:18) AMD
(01:10:35) Google’s TPU
(01:14:51) Amason’s Tranium
(01:17:33) Predictions for 2025 and 2026
Produced by Benny Beausoleil
Music by Yung Spielberg
Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com
Follow:
Brad Gerstner @altcap
Bill Gurley @bgurley
Dylan Patel @dylan522p
BG2 Pod @bg2pod
Satya Nadella | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they are joined by Satya Nadella, CEO of Microsoft, to discuss becoming Microsoft’s CEO, Advice for CEO’s, Microsoft’s Investment in OpenAI, Legacy Search, Ten Blue Links, Consumer and Enterprise AI, The Future of AI Agents, Infinite Memory, CoPilot, Microsoft’s Capital Expenditure, Open AI’s future, AI safety & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2.
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(01:31) Becoming Microsoft CEO
(06:42) Satya’s Memo to CEO Committee
(10:42) Satya’s Advantage as a CEO
(11:34) Advice for CEOs
(15:01) Microsoft’s Investment in OpenAI
(19:42) AI Arms Race
(23:55) Legacy Search and Consumer AI
(28:07) The Future of AI Agents
(38:32) Near-Infinite Memory
(39:47) Copilot Approach to AI Adoption
(50:26) Leveraging AI within Microsoft
(56:03) CapX
(01:00:20) The Cost of Model Scaling and Inference
(01:15:15) Open AI Conversion to Profit
(01:18:05) Next Steps for OpenAI
(01:19:43) Open vs. Closed and Safe AI
Produced by Benny Beausoleil
Music by Yung Spielberg
Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com
Follow:
Brad Gerstner @altcap
Bill Gurley @bgurley
BG2 Pod @bg2pod
#BillGurley #BradGerstner #Bg2Pod
BG2 Thanksgiving Roundtable: DOGE, EV Tax Credit, Tariffs, Conspiracy Theories, Invest America
Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they get in the Thanksgiving spirit, and discuss China, DOGE, Governor Newsom’s EV Tax Credit, Service Titan IPO, FedNow, Tariffs, Anthropic Open Source, Warren Buffet’s Thanksgiving letter, Conspiracy Theories, Invest America, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2.
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(01:40) Innovation in China & U.S. Competitiveness
(05:43) DOGE & Balancing the Budget
(10:43) Service Titan IPO & “Compounding Ratchet”
(15:36) Gov Newsom Attack on Tesla
(18:33) FedNow + Innovations in Payment Systems
(23:44) Tariffs as Negotiation Tactics
(27:36) Anthropic Open Source AI
(30:39) Warren Buffett's Philanthropy
(40:06) Invest America
Produced by Benny Beausoleil
Music by Yung Spielberg
Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com
Follow:
Brad Gerstner @altcap
Bill Gurley @bgurley
BG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod
#BillGurley #BradGerstner #Bg2Pod
Ep20. AI Scaling Laws, DOGE, FSD 13, Trump Markets | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they discuss AI Scaling Laws, the future of inference, AI memory and actions, National Full Self-Driving Regulations, FSD 13, Robotaxi and Waymo, Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2.
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(02:00) AI Scaling Laws
(05:54) Implications of AI Scaling Trends
(12:20) The Future of Inference and Data Quality
(17:51) AI Memory and Actions
(21:47) National Full Self-Driving Regulation
(23:14) FSD 13
(29:41) Market Disruption: Winners and Losers in the Auto Industry
(31:18) The Future of OEM’s
(40:41) Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)
(54:47) Tech Market Check
Produced by Benny Beausoleil
Music by Yung Spielberg
Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com
Follow:
Brad Gerstner @altcap https://x.com/altcap
Bill Gurley @bgurley https://x.com/bgurley
BG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod
#BillGurley #BradGerstner #Bg2Pod
Ep19. State of Venture, AI Scaling, Elections | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner, & Jamin Ball
Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they are joined by Jamin Ball (Partner at Altimeter) to discuss the state of venture capital and incentives, implications of overcapitalization, the future of power law returns, AI’s impact on investment strategies, the future of AI and CapEx, the market’s reactions to the 2024 election, the evolution of search and AI integration, Nasa, SpaceX, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2.
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(00:52) Bill’s Dad | from Nasa to SpaceX
(06:20) State of VC and Incentives w/ Jamin Ball
(12:31) Implications of Overcapitalization
(25:08) The Future of Power Law Returns
(38:28) The Impact of AI on Investment Strategies
(46:00) Future of AI and Capital Expenditure
(52:21) Market Reactions to 2024 Election
(01:00:45) Evolution of Search and AI Integration
Produced by Benny Beausoleil
Music by Yung Spielberg
Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com
Follow:
Brad Gerstner @altcap
Bill Gurley @bgurley
BG2 Pod @bg2pod
Jamin Ball @jaminball
Shownotes
Clouded Judgement Substack
#BillGurley #BradGerstner #Bg2Pod
Ep18. Jensen Recap - Competitive Moat, X.AI, Smart Assistant | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week, joined by Sunny Madra (Groq) they discuss Jensen Huang’s recent appearance on the podcast, including scaling intelligence towards AGI, NVIDIA's strategic positioning, the role of CUDA in the developer ecosystem, the future of inference workloads, systems-level thinking, Elon Musk's influence on AI development, the future of AI assistants, open vs closed AI models, safety and security in AI development, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2.
Chapters
(00:00) Introduction and Initial Reactions to Jensen
(04:32) NVIDIA's Position in Accelerated Compute
(05:11) CUDA and NVIDIA’s Competitive Moat
(12:53) Challenges to NVIDIA’s Competitive Advantage
(18:22) Future Outlook on Inference
(24:46) The Insatiable Demand for AI and Hardware
(27:12) Elon Musk' and X.ai
(31:47) Scaling AI Models and Clusters
(34:17) Economic Models and Funding in AI
(39:08) The Future of AI Pricing and Consumption Models
(42:25) Memory, Actions, and Intelligent Agents
(47:08) The Role of AI in Business Productivity
(51:03) Open vs Closed Models in AI Development
Produced by Benny Beausoleil
Music by Yung Spielberg
#jensenhuang #nvidia #bradgerstner #billgurley #clarktang #xai #memphiscluster #elonmusk #noambrown #openai #gptstrawberry
Ep17. Welcome Jensen Huang | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week, Jensen Huang, CEO of NVIDIA, makes a guest appearance. In Bill’s absence, Brad is joined by Clark Tang (Partner at Altimeter) as they discuss with Jensen scaling intelligence towards AGI, the acceleration of machine learning, NVIDIA's competitive advantages, the significance of inference alongside training, future market dynamics in the AI landscape, the impact of AI on various industries, the future of work, inference time reasoning, AI’s potential to enhance productivity, the balance between open source and closed source, Elon’s Memphis Supercluster, X.ai, OpenAI, the safe development of AI, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2.
Chapters
(00:00) Introduction
(1:50) The Evolution of AGI and Personal Assistants
(06:03) NVIDIA's Competitive Moat
(15:51 ) The Future of Inference and Training in AI
(19:01) Building the AI Infrastructure
(31:35) Inventing a New Market in an AI Future
(38:40) The Impact of OpenAI
(43:25) The Future of AI Models
(46.44) X.ai and Memphis Supercluster
(51:21) Distributed Computing and Inference Scaling
(55:54) Inference Time Reasoning and Its Importance
(01:00:46) AI's Role in Growing Business and Improving Productivity
(01:08:00) Ensuring Safe AI Development
(01:12:31) The Balance of Open Source and Closed Source AI
#jensenhuang #nvidia #bradgerstner #billgurley #clarktang #xai #memphiscluster #elonmusk #noambrown #openai #gptstrawberry
Ep16. Nuclear Update, AI Fast & Furious, State of VC | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner
Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they discuss private sector interest in nuclear energy, AI supply and demand, OpenAI Strawberry o1,inference constraints, the evolution of AI models, the state of VC, zombiecorns, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2.
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(00:36) The U.S. Nuclear Renaissance
(08:15) AI Fast and Furious
(11:19) OpenAI Strawberry o1
(17:15) Inference Constraints
(20:18) Open AI Breaking Out
(35:00) State of VC
(43:52) “Quasi-Public Companies”
(48:32) Liquidity / IPOs
(58:41) Tech Market Check
Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com
Follow:
Brad Gerstner @altcap
Bill Gurley @bgurley
BG2 Pod @bg2pod
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