What Dan Wang Saw on His Last Trip to China
There's this weird contradiction that hovers almost all conversations regarding the Chinese economy. On the one hand, the growth and rising material prosperity is undeniable. And of course, Chinese industrial giants are at the frontier in all kinds of things, like batteries. On the other hand, you always hear about a soft domestic market, and a general state of unease among workers who fear that precarity is around the corner. So how is this contradiction explained? And how does it affect day-to-day life? On this episode, we bring back one of our regular guests Dan Wang, who recently returned from a long trip to Shanghai. We discuss his observations, the general ennui he saw, the signs of domestic weakness, and the way in which phone culture is reshaping Chinese society.
Read more: It’s Too Soon to Breathe Easy on China’s Economy
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How Taiwan Became the World's Most Perilous Geopolitical Chokepoint
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has highlighted the potential for long-running theoretical chokepoints to turn into reality, with dramatic results for both geopolitics and the global economy. But the hypothetical scenario that policymakers have arguably been losing the most sleep over for decades is the prospect of a major conflict between China and Taiwan. So how likely is it, and what would such a conflict actually look like? On this episode, we speak with Eyck Freymann, author of the new book, Defending Taiwan: A Strategy to Prevent War With China, and a fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. We discuss Xi Jinping's strategy, whether Taiwan's "silicon shield" of semiconductor manufacturing can last forever, the state of Taiwan's domestic politics, and what the US can do to deter such a conflict.
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Balaji and Dan Wang: The Engineering State vs Lawyerly State
Balaji Srinivasan speaks with Dan Wang, author of Breakneck, about China's industrial rise, America's competing strengths in software and finance, and what happens when an engineering state and a lawyerly state collide. The conversation covers manufacturing dominance, the future of the dollar, why both superpowers keep making costly mistakes, and where builders fit into what comes next.
Resources:
Follow Dan Wang on X: https://twitter.com/danwwang
Follow Balaji on X: https://twitter.com/balajis
Subscribe to Network State Podcast: https://www.youtube.com/@nspodcast
Stay Updated:
Find a16z on YouTube: YouTube
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Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.
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Trump’s World Order — Live from Davos, with Niall Ferguson
Live from Davos, Scott Galloway and historian Niall Ferguson examine why today’s geopolitical moment looks less like a “new world order” and more like a return to Cold War power politics.
They discuss Trump’s foreign policy tactics, China as the central global rival, the limits of alliance politics, and why Ukraine’s war may only end through a fragile and imperfect peace.
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The Story: What China Tariffs Really Signal
This week, we’re joined by tech analyst and researcher, Dan Wang, to help analyze the evolving relationship between the US and China. In Dan’s new book, Breakneck: China's Quest to Engineer the Future, he introduces a new framework, comparing and contrasting China's “engineering state” to the US’s “lawyerly society”. We also hear Dan’s take on China’s rise as a production superpower, what lessons America can learn from the country and how the current administration's tariff policies (and its ties to tech billionaires like Elon Musk) have shifted the dynamics between these global heavyweights.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Dan Wang - The US vs China In The 21st Century - [Invest Like the Best, EP.444]
My guest today is Dan Wang. Dan is a technology analyst and author who spent six years living in China studying its manufacturing ecosystem and tech development, best known for his new book Breakneck. Dan offers the most nuanced framework I've encountered for understanding US-China competition. We explore a critical asymmetry: it's far harder for the US to rebuild manufacturing capacity than for China to improve scientific research, with profound implications for AI, national security, and investment returns. For investors, Dan explains the "ByteDance problem"—why exceptional Chinese companies trade at massive discounts due to Communist Party unpredictability and geopolitical risks. He argues China is a "high agency" society that executes relentlessly while America deliberates endlessly, yet also reveals the societal cost. We discuss innovation, state capacity, and investing across both superpowers. Please enjoy my conversation with Dan Wang.
For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page here.
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Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com).
Show Notes:
(00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like the Best
(00:05:55) China's Engineering State and Social Engineering
(00:12:15) US-China Competition: Innovation and Manufacturing
(00:19:41) The Future of US and China: Technological and Economic Perspectives
(00:25:22) Cultural and Work Ethic Comparisons
(00:39:09) Investing in China: Opportunities and Risks
(00:44:43) Future Equilibrium States Between US and China
(00:48:32) China's High Agency and Infrastructure
(00:49:58) Lawyerly Tendencies in US Society
(00:53:41) Comparing US and Chinese Societal Structures
(00:57:59) China's Historical Lessons and Future Prospects
(01:10:39) AI and Technological Competition
(01:15:30) Vertical Integration in Chinese Companies
(01:26:39) The Kindest Thing
Why China Builds Faster Than America & The Rest of the World | Dan Wang
Why does China build so much faster—and what does that reveal about two very different ways of running a society?
Ryan and David sit down with Dan Wang, author of Breakneck: China’s Quest to Engineer the Future, to unpack China’s “engineers-in-charge” model versus America’s “lawyerly” governance.
We cover how this shapes daily life and growth (from subways and high-speed rail to batteries, EVs, and drones), common western misconceptions about China (surveillance, social credit, “imminent collapse”), why U.S. capital markets soar while Chinese manufacturing dominates, what an American “abundance agenda” could look like, and Dan’s closing prescription: the U.S. needs ~20% more engineering; China needs ~50% more rights-protecting legalism.
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TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro
0:45 US Lawyers vs China Builders
8:50 Becoming Elite in China vs US
14:55 Motivating Forces
18:26 China’s Misconceptions
24:38 Protests in China
26:00 US vs China Innovation
27:59 Digital Authoritarianism
34:49 Social Credit System?
36:51 Will China Collapse?
42:53 China & Crypto
47:59 China’s Capital Markets
49:46 Path to Wealth
54:29 Property Rights
58:49 Stock Price vs Productivity
1:02:35 The 1960s
1:04:56 Abundance Agenda
1:06:51 US Weakness Relative to China
1:10:53 The Best of Both Worlds
1:13:43 Is China a Security Threat?
1:14:52 US Manufacturing Comeback?
1:20:20 US Global Talent Hub
1:25:07 China’s US Misconceptions
1:27:03 US Success Scenario
1:29:39 Closing & Disclaimers
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RESOURCES
Dan Wang
https://x.com/danwwang
Breakneck: China's Quest to Engineer the Future
https://www.amazon.com/Breakneck-Chinas-Quest-Engineer-Future/dp/1324106034
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Not financial or tax advice. See our investment disclosures here:
https://www.bankless.com/disclosures
Can the US Beat China’s Engineering State?
From high-speed rail to electric cars to batteries to AI, it’s clear that China can operate with incredible speed at massive scale. Can the US still compete?
We sat down with Dan Wang, a Research Fellow at the Hoover Institution and the author of “Breakneck: China’s Quest to Engineer the Future” to discuss.
Timecodes:
0:00 Introduction
1:36 Lawyers vs. Engineers: Cultural and Economic Differences
4:06 Urban and Rural Life: Comparing Infrastructure
7:20 Barriers to Progress: Regulation and Governance
11:00 Industrial Policy and Public-Private Partnerships
14:20 The Double-Edged Sword of Legal and Engineering Mindsets
16:50 Social Engineering and Policy in China
23:00 Competition, Intellectual Property, and Business Culture
27:10 Manufacturing, Scale, and Global Supply Chains
36:00 Lessons from Japan and Korea
41:30 Complacency, Quality, and the Future of Competition
48:45 Strategic Resources and Industrial Policy
54:00 Foreign Policy: Engineering Diplomacy vs. Alliances
59:00 Taiwan, Demographics, and the Future of US-China Relations
Resources:
Follow Dan on X: https://x.com/danwwang
Read Dan’s blog: https://danwang.co/
Buy Breakneck on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/dp/1324106034/
Follow Steven on X:
https://x.com/stevesi
Stay Updated:
Find a16z on YouTube: YouTube
Find a16z on X
Find a16z on LinkedIn
Listen to the a16z Show on Spotify
Listen to the a16z Show on Apple Podcasts
Follow our host: https://twitter.com/eriktorenberg
Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.
Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
Dan Wang on China's Breakneck Economic Growth
In the past couple of years, the world has fully awoken to the incredible economic and technological growth exhibited by China. But what lessons are there for America? Are there even lessons for America? Dan Wang, research fellow at Stanford University's Hoover History Lab, has probably been one of the foremost commentators and observers on China's rise, having taken seriously their efforts to push the technological frontiers for years now. Now, he's out with a new book BREAKNECK: China's Quest to Engineer the Future. On this episode, we talk about what he's seen in the country, whether China is legitimately on the road to socialism, and how perceptions of the country have changed since he started doing his research.
Read more:
Samsung, SK Hynix Lose US Waivers on Chip Gear for China Plants
China Warns Against Excess Competition in Booming AI Race
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Condoleezza Rice: U.S. Tech at Risk Amid University Cuts, China Threat
Condoleezza Rice is a former U.S. Secretary of State and current director of Stanford’s Hoover Institution. Rice joins Big Technology to discuss whether the United States can hold its technological edge as China races ahead in AI, batteries, and advanced manufacturing. Tune in to hear her candid take on the U.S.–China tech arms race, the ripple effects of chip export controls, and why she believes democracies are safer stewards of frontier technologies. We also cover the squeeze on university research funding, immigration-driven talent pipelines, and tuition-fueled class divides. Hit play for a data-rich, no-fluff conversation on the special sauce for the U.S. tech industry and the risks it faces in our current political environment.
Learn more about the Hoover Technology Policy Accelerator here: https://www.hoover.org/research-teams/technology-policy-accelerator
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Cold War II + An Update on Global Conflicts — with Niall Ferguson
Niall Ferguson, a historian, author, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, and columnist at The Free Press, joins Scott to discuss why we’re currently in Cold War II, his thoughts on the US presidential candidates, and gives us an update on conflicts happening around the world. @nfergus.
Scott opens with his thoughts on the DOJ’s antitrust hammer on Google.
Algebra of Happiness™: where you live.
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This Is How We'll Know If the CHIPS Act Is Working
The US government is spending billions of dollars to build out state-of-the-art domestic semiconductor manufacturing capacity. But spending money is no guarantee of success. In fact, there are already worries that the CHIPS Act passed by the Biden administration isn't succeeding, due to various roadblocks, speedbumps and unforced errors. So what are the odds that it will pay off? And what should we be watching for as evidence of its efficacy? On this episode of the podcast, we spoke with Dan Wang, technology analyst at Gavekal Dragonomics and Adam Ozimek, chief economist at the Economic Innovation Group. This episode was recorded live at Decades, Adam's bowling alley in Lancaster, Pennsylvania, during the #EconTwitterIRL event in April.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Dan Wang On the Extraordinary Moment for China's Party Congress
The Chinese government's biggest political gathering comes at a time of numerous challenges.Next week will see a major gathering of China's top officials known as the National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party. This event only happens twice every decade, and this particular Congress is happening at an extraordinary time for both the Chinese government and the country. Not only are officials grappling with the impact of strict pandemic-related restrictions known as Covid Zero, but they're also facing turmoil in the economy and the real estate sector. At the same time, external pressures are picking up, with the US recently imposing sweeping curbs on the way semiconductor companies do business with China. So what's on the agenda for this major political event and what can it tell us about the future direction of the Chinese economy? Dan Wang, China technology analyst at Gavekal Dragonomics, joins us to discuss.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The Ukraine Crisis Explained — with Niall Ferguson
Niall Ferguson, a historian and the Milbank Family Senior Fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution, joins Scott to discuss the implications of Russia’s attack on Ukraine. We hear what the West needs to do, why Putin is doing this, and what American news outlets get wrong about the war.
Scott opens with his thoughts on money washing.
Related Reading: Wash
Algebra of Happiness: it’s a matter of perspective.
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#239 – Niall Ferguson: History of Money, Power, War, and Truth
Niall Ferguson is a historian at Hoover Institution, Stanford University. He is the author of 16 books on the history of money, war, power, and catastrophe. Please support this podcast by checking out our sponsors:
– The Prisoner Wine Company: https://theprisonerwine.com/lex to get 20% off & free shipping
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– Four Sigmatic: https://foursigmatic.com/lex and use code LexPod to get up to 60% off
– Indeed: https://indeed.com/lex to get $75 credit
EPISODE LINKS:
Niall’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/nfergus
Niall’s Website: https://www.niallferguson.com
University of Austin: https://uaustin.org/
Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe (book): https://amzn.to/3wt7AI8
Kissinger: The Idealist (book): https://amzn.to/3CVXvGc
The Ascent of Money (book): https://amzn.to/3kCK0Ev
The Square and the Tower (book): https://amzn.to/307YfK8
The Age of AI (book): https://amzn.to/3BUgTSH
PODCAST INFO:
Podcast website: https://lexfridman.com/podcast
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– Medium: https://medium.com/@lexfridman
OUTLINE:
Here’s the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time.
(00:00) – Introduction
(09:14) – University of Austin (UATX)
(42:09) – Sam Harris
(1:00:36) – Elon Musk
(1:08:55) – Money
(1:18:50) – Hyperinflation
(1:24:15) – Bitcoin
(1:40:57) – Ethereum and smart contracts
(1:49:43) – Worst disasters in human history
(2:11:41) – How history will remember the current pandemic
(2:25:16) – Hope for the future
(2:33:46) – Love
(2:40:24) – Meaning of life
Dan Wang Explains What China's Tech Crackdown Is Really All About
Over the last several months, Chinese authorities have undertaken a sweeping campaign of change. We've seen crackdowns on big tech and fintech companies (like Ant Financial and Didi), online education companies, and now even the playing of video games. Investors in key sectors have gotten clobbered by the new rules. So what is the goal and what is the endgame here? On this episode, we speak to Dan Wang, a China tech analyst at Gavekal Dragonomics, who breaks it all down.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The Geopolitics of Cryptocurrencies — with Niall Ferguson
Niall Ferguson returns to the pod for a discussion about his latest book, Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe. Niall shares why "all disasters are in some sense man-made" and what history can teach us about handling crises. Niall also explains the state of play around digital currencies from a geopolitical perspective. Follow Niall on Twitter, @nfergus.
Scott opens with his thoughts on AT&T’s reverse merger with Discovery, and what it means for the streaming wars. He also discusses the implications of stock buybacks and dividends.
Related Reading: Companies Are Flush With Cash—and Ready to Pad Shareholder Pockets
Algebra of Happiness: Find moments of engagement.
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Dan Wang on China's Mission to Be a World Leader in Semiconductors
We've been talking a lot on the podcast about semiconductors. The stumble of Intel. The general troubles with US manufacturing, and, of course, the rise of TSMC. But, for a long time, the Chinese government has endeavored to build a successful homegrown and world-leading chip industry. On this episode, we speak with Dan Wang, a tech analyst at Gavekal Dragonomics. He discusses the state of the domestic industry, as well as broader lessons on Chinese tech and business after a year of extraordinary disruption.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Cold War II: China Tech vs. US Tech
Niall Ferguson, a historian, author, and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, joins Scott to discuss the state of play around the tech war between the U.S. and China. Niall talks about each of the country’s strengths and weaknesses, and why he thinks we’re moving toward Cold War II. Niall also shares his thoughts on the fintech space as it relates to Ant Group’s suspended IPO.
Follow Niall on Twitter, @nfergus.
Niall’s reading recommendations:
We by Yevgeny Zamyatin
Sir Walter Scott novels
The Last Days of Mankind by Karl Kraus
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Why Bitcoin Now: Michael Casey and Niall Ferguson on How Bitcoin Fits in the History of Money - Ep.181
Niall Ferguson, Milbank Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, and the author of numerous books including The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World and most recently, the Square and the Tower: Networks and Power from the Freemasons to Facebook, and Michael Casey, chief content officer at CoinDesk and coauthor of two books on crypto, The Age of Cryptocurrency and The Truth Machine, discuss the history of money and the macro environment for Bitcoin. We cover:
how they became involved in crypto
historically, what has made things money, or how people have decided that something is money
the difficulty of managing fiat currency
modern monetary theory and the role of the state in the financial system
Satoshi’s message in BTC’s genesis block and what that indicates about Satoshi's intentions with Bitcoin
whether a more transparent, blockchain-based financial system could eventually lead to a new financial order
how Bitcoin behaves like an option on digital gold, and when it will behave like digital gold
whether Bitcoin is simply a reversion to previous forms of money that weren’t controlled by the state
how crypto/blockchain and fintech innovation from startups and the Chinese government will affect the USD
how a hypothetical war between the US and China would affect the dollar's dominance
how China's DCEP could disintermediate banks
how Bitcoin fits into all of the different macro conditions facing the global economy
whether Libra is going to be the initial gateway getting people into our digital currency world
how well the recovery from coronavirus will go, and how it will affect the development of the crypto space in the near-term
Thank you to our sponsors!
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Episode links:
Niall Ferguson: http://www.niallferguson.com
The Ascent of Money: https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/302900/the-ascent-of-money-by-niall-ferguson/
Michael Casey: https://www.michaeljcasey.com
Money Reimagined: https://www.coindesk.com/tag/money-reimagined
The Age of Cryptocurrency: https://us.macmillan.com/books/9781250081551
The first episode in the Why Bitcoin Now series: Mike Novogratz and Raoul Pal on 'the Single Greatest Brand' ofo the Last 10 Years: https://unchainedpodcast.com/why-bitcoin-now-mike-novogratz-and-raoul-pal-on-the-single-greatest-brand-of-the-last-10-years/
How Niall got into Bitcoin:
http://www.niallferguson.com/journalism/finance-economics/bitcoin-may-go-pop-but-its-revolution-will-go-on
Niall and Michael at Consensus: https://www.coindesk.com/disruption-money-and-a-world-of-change-feat-niall-ferguson
Unchained interview with Chamath Palihapitiya, who believes Bitcoin is a hedge on everything blowing up: https://unchainedpodcast.com/chamath-palihapitiya-why-bitcoin-will-be-the-category-winner/
Carlota Perez at CoinDesk's Consensus: https://www.coindesk.com/video/carlota-perez-on-blockchains-and-technological-revolutions
Unchained interview about the DCEP: https://unchainedpodcast.com/why-china-aims-to-replace-cash-with-the-digital-yuan/
Unchained interview with Christopher Giancarlo about a digital dollar: https://unchainedpodcast.com/christopher-giancarlo-why-the-us-needs-to-have-a-digital-dollar/
Unconfirmed episode with Michael about Libra: https://unchainedpodcast.com/why-it-would-be-good-if-libra-rivaled-the-us-dollar/
Unchained episode with a co-creator of Libra: https://unchainedpodcast.com/a-libra-co-creator-on-how-facebook-will-make-money-from-calibra/
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This Is What The Coronavirus Means For The Chinese Supply Chain
Apple's recent revenue warning reminded the world of how exposed the company is to China, and in particular its factories. As the coronavirus continues to shutter huge swaths of the Chinese economy, this is a potential risk for numerous companies beyond just Apple. On this week's Odd Lots podcast, we speak with Dan Wang, a China tech industry analyst at Gavekal Dragonomics about how this, along with pressure on Huawei, are putting extraordinary pressure on the Chinese supply chain.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Recode Decode: Stanford University's Larry Diamond
Larry Diamond, a professor at Stanford University and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, talks with Recode's Kara Swisher about his new book, Ill Winds: Saving Democracy from Russian Rage, Chinese Ambition, and American Complacency.
In this episode:
Diamond’s background studying the development and failure of democracies; authoritarian regimes and the internet; why the book is called “Ill Winds”; the right-wing populist backlash across Europe; the deeper frustrations underneath anti-immigration sentiment; why Hillary Clinton lost the electoral college; how Russia, the "fallen superpower," is intervening in elections around the world; Mitch McConnell's obstinacy; "pretty close to treason"; the "risk of sliding into a new Cold War"; why China is the bigger threat in the long term; its tight control of Chinese citizens and companies; how will its rise affect US policy?; how China's people will react when the prosperity stops; declining American investment in R&D; "sleepwalking into the future"; how two-party politics have paralyzed the US; Diamond's proposed solution, ranked-choice voting; the danger of online voting; and the fight against gerrymandering, voter suppression, and polarization.
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Why President Trump's Move Against Huawei Is Such A Big Deal
Earlier this month, President Trump escalated the trade tensions against China by limiting exports of U.S. technology to Huawei. But what is Huawei, and why is this such a big deal? On this week's episode, we speak to Dan Wang, a technology analyst at Gavekal Dragonomics, about the importance of Huawei to the Chinese tech industry, the specifics of what Trump just did, and the far-reaching fallout that we could see from this new phase of the trade war.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
This Is China's Plan To Be A Technology Powerhouse By The Year 2025
The recent trade tensions between the Trump administration and China has shone a light on the country's ambitions to become a technology powerhouse, as one of the complaints is that China unfairly extracts intellectual property from multinationals entering that market. But what, specifically, is China's long-term plan? On this week's Odd Lots podcast, we speak to Dan Wang, a technology analyst at Gavekal Dragonomics about the the Made In China 2025 initiative, which seeks to turn the country into a tech leader (in areas like semiconductors, medical equipment, clean energy, and wide-body aircraft) by the year 2025. Dan explains how the program works, where it's succeeding, where it's struggling, and what the ramifications are for the rest of the world.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
