Why the most expensive Seed deals are the cheapest | E2299
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Two days before SpaceX launches the largest IPO in history at a flat $135/share, our VC roundtable drops a scorcher: The top 1% of seed deals might actually be underpriced. Plus: the "Sequoia scam" dual-tranche controversy, tokens-for-equity deals, and whether Claude Fable 5 is a true step function.
Tomasz Tunguz (Theory Ventures), Michael Downing (Castalia Capital), and Paige Doherty (Behind Genius Ventures) join Alex to go deep on Seed investing, startup economics, AI spend, and the impact of smarter AI on the founder journey.
Guest Links:
Tomasz Tunguz: https://x.com/ttunguz
Theory Ventures: https://theoryvc.com/
Michael Downing: https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaeldowning/
Castalia Capital: https://castalia.capital/
Paige Doherty: https://x.com/paigefinnn
Behind Genius Ventures: https://www.behindgeniusventures.com
Show Links:
Anthropic’s IPO announcement: https://www.anthropic.com/news/confidential-draft-s1-sec
OpenAI’s IPO announcement: https://openai.com/index/openai-submits-confidential-s-1/
Bending Spoons F-1 filing: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2004711/000110465926071170/tm2613674-7_f1.htm
SpaceX IPO filing: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026040364/spaceexplorationtechnologib.htm
Brendan Foody’s post on Sequoia: https://x.com/BrendanFoody/status/2063470286515683759
Claude Fable 5: https://www.anthropic.com/news/claude-fable-5-mythos-5
OpenRouter data on Chinese models: https://openrouter.ai/rankings?view=day
Saronic: https://www.saronic.com/
MotherDuck: https://motherduck.com/
Nox Metals: https://noxmetals.co/
Timestamps:
0:00 Tomasz Tunguz, Michael Downing & Paige Doherty join
2:07 The SpaceX IPO and the IPO window
4:22 Plaud: If your work depends on conversations — interviews, meetings, calls — you need a Plaud NotePin. You can check it out at https://Plaud.ai/twist and use code TWIST for 10% off!
6:30 The new bar: 10x growth (not 3x) to raise a great Series A
8:46 Net-new AI budgets
9:46 Squarespace: Turn your idea into a beautiful website! Go to https://www.squarespace.com/twist for a free trial. When you're ready to launch, use offer code TWIST to save 10% off your first purchase of a website or domain.
11:09 How some founders are outgrowing venture capital
11:44 The power pendulum swings back to founders
12:46 SpaceX vs. OpenAI vs. Anthropic: Which IPO is most enticing?
19:53 Deel - Founders scale faster on Deel. Set up payroll for any country in minutes, hire anyone anywhere, get visas handled fast, and get back to building. Visit https://deel.com/twist to learn more.
26:07 Tokens-for-equity, GPU-hours-for-equity & the financialization of compute
28:35 Founders airing VC dirty laundry (napping VCs included)
29:56 Netsuite - The business landscape is very chaotic right now. That's why you need NetSuite, by Oracle. Get the free business guide Demystifying AI at https://Netsuite.com/TWiST
36:38 Claude Fable 5 first impressions: pricing, benchmarks & orchestration
45:42 Where value accrues: application layer vs. models vs. private data
1:00:06 Nationalization of AI labs: Bernie Sanders, Sam Altman & Trump agree?!
1:01:25 Portfolio spotlights: Saronic, MotherDuck, and Nox Metals
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Inside the AI Sprint, Understanding Anthropic's Strategy | Tomasz Tunguz, Theory Ventures
Tomasz Tunguz is the Founder and General Partner of Theory Ventures.
We talk about today’s “all out sprint” in AI, Anthropic’s strategy, the three layers of AI business models, how AI compares to prior technologies, where to invest in AI today, and what Theory looks for in new investments.
Thank you to Numeral, Flex, and Amplitude for supporting this episode
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Timestamps:
(0:42) The “all out sprint” in AI today
(1:40) Why GPU prices are up 116% in six weeks
(6:34) AI infra end-state: “We’ll over build”
(9:12) Tokenmaxxing, and why AI needs to get more efficient
(15:48) AI models will resemble pharma more than software
(19:52) Why Anthropic still trades at a discount
(25:42) Anthropic’s strategy: commoditize the compliments
(30:29) Why OpenClaw is so strategic for OpenAI
(34:08) The three layers of AI business models
(38:18) Where to invest in AI today
(45:49) Who will survive SaaSpocalypse?
(52:15) Comparing AI’s impact to historical technology cycles
(57:34) How new technology historically impacts jobs
(1:05:58) Where AI is underrated today
(1:10:41) How people are actually buying AI products
(1:14:06) Why Theory’s investing in ads, inference, and email
(1:16:24) 2026 IPO pipeline, how VC has changed over 20 years
(1:20:56) What Theory looks for in new investments
(1:22:32) Starting Theory Ventures in 2022
(1:25:39) Running a monte carlo analysis to determine portfolio construction
(1:27:54) Tomasz personal AI projects
Referenced
Theory Ventures: https://theoryvc.com/
Tomasz Blog: https://tomtunguz.com/
Follow Tomasz
Twitter: https://x.com/ttunguz
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tomasztunguz
Follow Turner
Twitter: https://twitter.com/TurnerNovak
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/turnernovak
Subscribe to my newsletter to get every episode + the transcript in your inbox every week: https://www.thespl.it/
The End of the ZIRP Era, and why recruiting is SO PAINFUL | E2164
Today’s show:
We’re back with another all-star VC roundtable discussion.
Joining Jason are Dave McClure of Practical VC, NVNG’s Grady Buchanan, and Tomasz Tunguz of Theory VC. Together, they’re having a deep insider discussion of the state of venture, secondary markets, running funds of funds, the legacy of Lina Khan, the difficulty of recruiting, and why the pendulum has potentially swung in founders’ favor.
Timestamps
(0:00) INTRO, The origins of Practical VC and how secondary funds work.
(05:44) So… how does Dave decide what to BUY?
(09:27) Melanie - Companies are staying private longer… Is this good for fund managers?
(10:02) Squarespace - Use offer code TWIST to save 10% off your first purchase of a website or domain at https://www.Squarespace.com/TWIST
(11:18) Show Continues…
(14:17) We’ve all heard about unicorns but… what about centaurs?!
(16:19) Jacob - Are VC marks… bullsh*t?! How long until your LPs should see DPI? The panel debates.
(17:22) Jacob - Is Jason too hard on Lina Khan? Dave says VCs created the problem!
(20:07) AWS Activate - AWS Activate helps startups bring their ideas to life. Apply to AWS Activate today to learn more. Visit aws.amazon.com/startups/credits
(21:30) Show Continues…
(30:01) Public - Take your investing to the next level with Public. Build a multi-asset portfolio and earn 4.1% APY on your cash—with no fees or minimums. Start now at public.com/twist.
(31:16) Show Continues…
(31:34) When it’s time to embed an expert into a struggling startup
(34:15) How investing in SO MANY COMPANIES gave Dave a trove of data
(40:33) Sometimes VCs have to be the “voice of reality”…
(45:53) Are stock buybacks the best use of capital?
(49:29) Jacob - The End of the ZIRP Era meets the Dawn of the AI Era
(51:04) Why running your business on debt, not equity, requires tough choices
(58:23) When you need to “take the medicine” on returns and live to fight another day.
(01:11:17) Is Grady actively seeking managers that have shown a demonstrated ability to produce liquidity?
(01:13:24) Dave says the pendulum has swung into founders’ favor.
(01:20:25) Dave teases his new secondary podcast, “Trading Places”!
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Thank you to our partners:
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Great TWIST interviews: Will Guidara, Eoghan McCabe, Steve Huffman, Brian Chesky, Bob Moesta, Aaron Levie, Sophia Amoruso, Reid Hoffman, Frank Slootman, Billy McFarland
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Bottom of the first: A veteran VC’s take on the AI landscape
Tomasz is a general partner at Theory Ventures, a venture capital firm focused on early-stage software companies.
He’s a coauthor of Winning with Data, a deep dive into how big data has changed business best practices and organizational culture.
Tomasz was on the podcast back in 2023. Give it a listen!
Explore Tomasz’s writing.
Follow Tomasz on LinkedIn.
See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
SaaStr 782: The Future of AI in B2B SaaS: Insights from Synthesia's CEO and Theory Ventures. Hosted by SaaStr CEO Jason Lemkin
SaaStr 782: The Future of AI in B2B SaaS: Insights from Synthesia's CEO and Theory Ventures. Hosted by SaaStr CEO Jason Lemkin
As the AI revolution accelerates, it can be hard to keep up with the pace of innovation. SaaStr's AI Day 2025 brought together the top minds in the SaaS, AI and Cloud to dive deep into the intersection of AI and B2B. Featuring insights from Victor Rippabelli, CEO of Synthesia, and Tomas Tunguz of Theory Ventures, Jason Lemkin leads the discussion that covered everything from enterprise AI adoption to the evolution of video technology and the changing landscape of venture funding.
Learn about the latest advancements in AI video models and how they enhance productivity and innovation. The discussion also explores the evolving landscape of venture funding in AI, the impact of cheaper AI models on enterprise costs, the dynamics of seat-based vs. outcome-based software pricing, and the future of AI agents in business workflows. Don't miss this insightful conversation on the current and future state of AI in the enterprise.
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SaaStr hosts the largest SaaS community events on the planet.
Hey everybody - thanks to the 10,000 of you who came out to SaaStr Annual. We had a blast and big news -- we'll be back in MAY of 2025. That's right, the SaaStr Annual will be a bit earlier next year, May 13-15 2025. We'll still be back in the same venue, in the SF bay area at the 40+ acre sprawling san mateo county events center. Grab your tickets at saastrannual.com with code JASON50 for an extra discount on our very best pricing.
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SaaStr 769: The State of SaaS Go-to-Market with Theory Ventures General Partner Tomasz Tunguz
SaaStr 769: The State of SaaS Go-to-Market with Theory Ventures General Partner Tomasz Tunguz
Join us in this insightful episode as seasoned venture capitalist Tomasz Tunguz, General Partner at Theory Ventures shares transformative insights on the current landscape of SaaS Go-To-Market.
Six months ago, security was the number one prohibition preventing businesses and software companies from buying AI. Today it's ROI.
In this episode, Tomasz shares nine observations from a Go-To-Market survey Theory Ventures did with hundreds of startups, 68% of them early-stage, well-funded, mostly mid-market ACV, and 25% remote.
Here's what they found:
We've noticed founders are more positive despite sales cycles being 12% longer
The lengthening sales cycle increases the payback period to offset it
Startup founders and CEOs have increased their sales team quotas linearly
AI today has no impact on conversion rate
AI does not impact ARR growth, even though people who buy AI perceive it as meaningfully contributing to overall efficiency gains
If you're considering changing your pricing model, consider creating a hybrid or matrix pricing model. You'll have six percentage points more of net dollar retention.
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SaaStr hosts the largest SaaS community events on the planet.
Hey everybody - thanks to the 10,000 of you who came out to SaaStr Annual. We had a blast and big news -- we'll be back in MAY of 2025. That's right, the SaaStr Annual will be a bit earlier next year, May 13-15 2025. We'll still be back in the same venue, in the SF bay area at the 40+ acre sprawling san mateo county events center. Grab your tickets at saastrannual.com with code jason50 for an extra discount on our very best pricing.
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This episode is sponsored by: remote.com
When the right person for the job is a world away, Remote Talent brings the world to you. As the top job board for remote-first companies, we give you powerful tools to post your listings and reach the world's top candidates and remote professionals. Start building your dream team from anywhere—visit Remote.com/jobs today.
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This episode is sponsored by: Anrok
A question for SaaS finance leaders, do you know where your customers are? Anrok tracks where your sales are creating exposure, and automates tax calculation and filing worldwide. Built for high-growth software companies, Anrok protects your revenue and saves you time. Visit anrok.com/saastr to learn more.
Tomasz Tunguz and David Clark on how to invest in AI and Q1 2024 startup valuations | E1930
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Todays show:
David Weisburd hosts David Clark, Tomasz Tunguz, and Jason Calacanis to discuss the new YC class (1:59), startup valuations (19:34), the investment landscape (30:17), and more!
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Timestamps:
(00:00) David Weisburd intros David Clark, Tomasz Tunguz, and Jason Calacanis
(1:59) The latest YC class and rise of AI startups
(9:36) Squarespace - Use offer code TWIST to save 10% off your first purchase of a website or domain at http://www.Squarespace.com/TWIST
(10:55) Role of the founding team in AI startups
(19:34) Startup valuations and the changing landscape of seed deals and Series A rounds
(29:01) OpenPhone - Get 20% off your first six months at http://www.openphone.com/twist
(30:17) Tomasz Tunguz’s journey to raising his fund and the challenges of the VC industry
(37:32) Personality types in venture capital and handling company wind downs
(39:20) CLA - Get started with CLA's CPAs, consultants, and wealth advisors now at https://claconnect.com/tech
(40:52) VC’s moving out and the challenge of picking the right company to invest in
(59:27) Active reserves management
(1:09:00) Lightning round: Top 3 investments
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Mentioned on show:
https://motherduck.com
https://arbitrum.io
https://www.omni.co
https://www.podengine.ai
https://www.getrecall.ai
https://newcomergames.com
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X: https://twitter.com/daveclark85
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/david-clark-6678b6b/
Check out VenCap: https://www.vencap.com/
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Follow Tomasz Tunguz:
X: https://twitter.com/ttunguz
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tomasztunguz
Check out Theory Ventures: https://theory.ventures
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Great 2023 interviews: Steve Huffman, Brian Chesky, Aaron Levie, Sophia Amoruso, Reid Hoffman, Frank Slootman, Billy McFarland
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SaaStr 707: The Where, When, and How of AI with Theory Ventures, Open AI, MotherDuck and Lamini
SaaStr 707: The Where, When, and How of AI with Theory Ventures, Open AI, MotherDuck and Lamini
Hear the latest insights on AI from leading VC Tomasz Tunguz of Theory Ventures Theory Ventures, joined by Jordan Tigani, Founder and CEO of Mother Duck Maggie Hott, GTM at OpenAI, and Sharon Zhou, Co-Founder and CEO of Lamini. Together they discuss the new architecture for building Software as a Service (SaaS) applications with data & machine learning at their core, moderated by Tomasz.
The focus of the episode centers around the transformative role of data, which has become an integral part of the production stack. The speakers also delve into the implications of this shift and explore how leveraging data within the architecture empowers developers to create more robust, intelligent, and scalable SaaS solutions.
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Join us in 2024 at:
SaaStr Annual: Sept. 10-12 in the SF Bay Area. Join 12,500 SaaS professionals, CEOs, revenue leaders and investors for the world's LARGEST SaaS community event of the year. Podcast listeners can grab a discount on tickets here: https://www.saastrannual2024.com/buy-tickets?promo=fave20
SaaStr Europa: June 5-6 in London. We'll be hosting the 5th SaaStr Europa in London for two days of content and networking. Join 3,000 SaaS and Cloud leaders. Podcast listeners can grab a discount on Europa tickets here: https://www.saastreuropa2024.com/buy-tickets?promo=fave200
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This episode is sponsored by: Northwest Registered Agent
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Tomasz Tunguz: From Java engineer to investor in eight unicorns
Tomasz is a general partner at Theory Ventures, a venture capital firm focused on early-stage software companies.
He coauthored the book Winning with Data, a deep dive into how big data has changed business best practices and organizational culture.
Find Tomasz’s writing here.
Follow Tomasz on LinkedIn or Twitter.com.
In honor of Tomasz’s early career, we’re shouting out Johnny Hujol’s answer to What exactly is a container in J2EE and how does it help?.
See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
The Theory Ventures venture theory with Tomasz Tunguz
Hello, and welcome back to Equity, the podcast about the business of startups, where we unpack the numbers and nuance behind the headlines.
This is our Wednesday show, where we sit down with a guest, talk about their work and dive deep into the rest. This week, we had Theory Ventures founder Tomasz Tunguz on the show. As long-time readers of his work, having the former Redpoint investor on the show was a no-brainer.
While it would have been fun to spend our time chatting about the ups and down of writing or the Internet, we instead explored a wide range of topics:
Why Tunguz left Redpoint and started his own fund;
Why seed deals do not get smaller over time;
The thesis that underpins Theory Ventures’ investments and the future of machine learning;
Why Tunguz is bullish on Ethereum;
The value of software, the health of software companies, and why venture math still holds up at lower valuation multiples.
And more! It was a great chat; Equity will be back on Friday!
For episode transcripts and more, head to Equity’s Simplecast website.
Equity drops at 7 a.m. PT every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, so subscribe to us on Apple Podcasts, Overcast, Spotify and all the casts. TechCrunch also has a great show on crypto, a show that interviews founders and more!
Credits: Equity is produced by Theresa Loconsolo with editing by Kell. Bryce Durbin is our Illustrator. We'd also like to thank the audience development team and Henry Pickavet, who manages TechCrunch audio products.
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20VC: The Biggest AI Leaders on What Matters More; Model Size or Data Size & Where Does The Value in AI Accrue; to Startups or to Incumbents
Richard Socher is the founder and CEO of You.com. Richard previously served as the Chief Scientist and EVP at Salesforce.
Douwe Kiela is the CEO of Contextual AI, building the contextual language model to power the future of businesses. Previously, he was the Head of Research at Hugging Face, and before that a Research Scientist at Facebook AI Research.
Alex Lebrun is the Co-Founder and CEO of Nabla, an AI assistant for doctors. Prior to Nabla, he led engineering at Facebook AI Research. Alex founded Wit.ai, acquired by Facebook in 2015.
Tomasz Tunguz is the Founder and General Partner @ Theory Ventures, just announced last week, Theory is a $230M fund that invests $1-25m in early-stage companies that leverage technology discontinuities into go-to-market advantages.
Sarah Guo is the Founding Partner @ Conviction Capital, a $100M first fund purpose-built to serve "Software 3.0" companies. Prior to founding Conviction, Sarah was a General Partner at Greylock where she made investments in the likes of Figma, Coda and Neeva.
Emad Mostaque is the Co-Founder and CEO @ StabilityAI, the parent company of Stable Diffusion. Stability are building the foundation to activate humanity's potential. To date, Emad has raised over $110M with Stability with the latest round reportedly pricing the company at $4BN.
Clem Delangue is the Co-Founder and CEO @ Hugging Face, the AI community building the future. To date, Clem has raised over $160M from the likes of Sequoia, Coatue, Addition and Lux Capital to name a few.
Cris Valenzuela is the CEO and co-founder of Runway, the company that trains and builds generative AI models for content creation. To date, Cris has raised over $285M for the company from the likes of Lux Capital, Felicis, Coatue, Amplify, and Nvidia to name a few.
Noam Shazeer is the co-founder and CEO of Character.AI. A renowned computer scientist and researcher, Shazeer is one of the foremost experts in artificial intelligence (AI) and natural language processing (NLP).
The Two Most Pressing Questions in AI:
What matters more the size of the model or the size of the data?
Where does the value accrue in the next 5-10 years; to startups or to incumbents?
20VC: Who Wins in AI; Startup vs Incumbent, Infrastructure vs Application Layer, Bundled vs Unbundled Providers | From 150 LP Meetings to Closing $230M for Fund I; The Fundraising Process, What Worked, What Didn't and Lessons Learned with Tomasz Tunguz
Tomasz Tunguz is the Founder and General Partner @ Theory Ventures, just announced last week, Theory is a $230M fund that invests $1-25m in early-stage companies that leverage technology discontinuities into go-to-market advantages. Prior to founding Theory, Tom spent 14 years at Redpoint as a General Partner where he made investments in the likes of Looker, Expensify, Monte Carlo, Dune Analytics, and Kustomer to name a few. Tom also writes one of the best blogs and newsletters in the business which can be found here.
In Today's Episode with Tomasz Tunguz We Discuss:
Founding a Firm: The Start of Theory:
Why did Tom decide to leave Redpoint after 14 years to found Theory?
What are 1-2 of his biggest lessons from Redpoint that he has taken with him to his building of Theory?
What does Tom know now that he wishes he had known when he started investing?
2. From 150 LP Meetings to Closing $230M: Raising a Fund I
How would Tom describe the fundraising process?
How many meetings with LPs did he have? How many did he know previously?
What documents did he share with LPs? Did he have a dataroom? How did he use it?
How did Tom create a sense of urgency to compel LPs to come into the fund?
How does Tom feel about the debate between one close and multiple closes?
What was the #1 reason LPs said no to investing?
What worked and Tom would do again for the next raise? What did not work and he would change for the next raise?
3. Where Will Value Accrue in the Next Decade of AI:
Startup vs Incumbent: Will incumbents embrace AI before startups are able to acquire distribution?
Infrastructure vs Application Layer: Where will the majority of value accrue in the next decade; infrastructure or application layer?
Bundled or Unbundled: Will bundled services be the dominant consumer and enterprise choice or will unbundled specialized solutions win?
4. AI and The World Around It:
How does Tom believe AI could save the US economy?
Why does Tom believe Google are the losers in the AI race?
Which incumbents have responded best to AI?
Why does Tom believe we will be in a worse macro place at the end of the year than we are now?
SaaStr 650: The Impact of Generative AI on Software With Theory Ventures Founder & General Partner Tomasz Tunguz
Generative AI has taken the world by storm, and VCs and SaaS founders are looking at new opportunities it can bring. Even considering the more conservative fundraising market in 2023, there are opportunities for startups to get investor attention with AI.
Tomasz Tunguz, Founder & General Partner at Theory Ventures, believes that with the right GTM plan and capital efficiency, it is still possible to get funding. It's simply a matter of watching your burn: "The main difference in the market between 2021 and today is that efficiency matters more than growth."
Full video with Q&A: https://youtube.com/live/xiYzzLe9BAs
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SaaStr Europa is back! And this time, we're heading to London for 2 fun-filled days of content, networking, and SaaS. Join us June 6th and 7th for SaaStr Europa 2023. Use code FAVE100 for $100 off tickets at saastrlondon.com.
Want to join the SaaStr community? We're the 🌎largest community for B2B software.
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Our North American Event: https://bit.ly/2OXeAYh
Our European Event: https://bit.ly/2OZTad8
SaaStr 439: Tomasz Tunguz of Redpoint Ventures Shares the 5 Metrics You Should Track to Maximize Your Company's Valuation
In today's SaaStr podcast, Tomasz Tunguz, Managing Director at Redpoint Ventures shares the 5 metrics and benchmarks you should track to maximize your company's valuation.
Video + blog post: https://www.saastr.com/5-metrics-you-should-track-to-maximize-your-companys-valuation/
SaaStr 383: Growing Product and Engineering Orgs from Zero to IPO with Nick Caldwell, VP of Engineering @ Twitter, and Tomasz Tunguz, Managing Director @ Redpoint Ventures
Nick Caldwell has built and grown product and engineering organizations at PowerBI (0 to 300 engineers), Reddit (500M MAU) and Looker ($2.7B sale to Google). Nick will share 5 big lessons he's learned along the way that you can use as you build your company's product and engineering functions from its earliest days to its largest successes.
Video and blog post: https://www.saastr.com/growing-product-and-engineering-orgs-from-zero-to-ipo-with-twitter-and-redpoint-ventures/
