Why the most expensive Seed deals are the cheapest | E2299
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Two days before SpaceX launches the largest IPO in history at a flat $135/share, our VC roundtable drops a scorcher: The top 1% of seed deals might actually be underpriced. Plus: the "Sequoia scam" dual-tranche controversy, tokens-for-equity deals, and whether Claude Fable 5 is a true step function.
Tomasz Tunguz (Theory Ventures), Michael Downing (Castalia Capital), and Paige Doherty (Behind Genius Ventures) join Alex to go deep on Seed investing, startup economics, AI spend, and the impact of smarter AI on the founder journey.
Guest Links:
Tomasz Tunguz: https://x.com/ttunguz
Theory Ventures: https://theoryvc.com/
Michael Downing: https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaeldowning/
Castalia Capital: https://castalia.capital/
Paige Doherty: https://x.com/paigefinnn
Behind Genius Ventures: https://www.behindgeniusventures.com
Show Links:
Anthropic’s IPO announcement: https://www.anthropic.com/news/confidential-draft-s1-sec
OpenAI’s IPO announcement: https://openai.com/index/openai-submits-confidential-s-1/
Bending Spoons F-1 filing: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2004711/000110465926071170/tm2613674-7_f1.htm
SpaceX IPO filing: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026040364/spaceexplorationtechnologib.htm
Brendan Foody’s post on Sequoia: https://x.com/BrendanFoody/status/2063470286515683759
Claude Fable 5: https://www.anthropic.com/news/claude-fable-5-mythos-5
OpenRouter data on Chinese models: https://openrouter.ai/rankings?view=day
Saronic: https://www.saronic.com/
MotherDuck: https://motherduck.com/
Nox Metals: https://noxmetals.co/
Timestamps:
0:00 Tomasz Tunguz, Michael Downing & Paige Doherty join
2:07 The SpaceX IPO and the IPO window
4:22 Plaud: If your work depends on conversations — interviews, meetings, calls — you need a Plaud NotePin. You can check it out at https://Plaud.ai/twist and use code TWIST for 10% off!
6:30 The new bar: 10x growth (not 3x) to raise a great Series A
8:46 Net-new AI budgets
9:46 Squarespace: Turn your idea into a beautiful website! Go to https://www.squarespace.com/twist for a free trial. When you're ready to launch, use offer code TWIST to save 10% off your first purchase of a website or domain.
11:09 How some founders are outgrowing venture capital
11:44 The power pendulum swings back to founders
12:46 SpaceX vs. OpenAI vs. Anthropic: Which IPO is most enticing?
19:53 Deel - Founders scale faster on Deel. Set up payroll for any country in minutes, hire anyone anywhere, get visas handled fast, and get back to building. Visit https://deel.com/twist to learn more.
26:07 Tokens-for-equity, GPU-hours-for-equity & the financialization of compute
28:35 Founders airing VC dirty laundry (napping VCs included)
29:56 Netsuite - The business landscape is very chaotic right now. That's why you need NetSuite, by Oracle. Get the free business guide Demystifying AI at https://Netsuite.com/TWiST
36:38 Claude Fable 5 first impressions: pricing, benchmarks & orchestration
45:42 Where value accrues: application layer vs. models vs. private data
1:00:06 Nationalization of AI labs: Bernie Sanders, Sam Altman & Trump agree?!
1:01:25 Portfolio spotlights: Saronic, MotherDuck, and Nox Metals
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Great TWIST interviews: Will Guidara, Eoghan McCabe, Steve Huffman, Brian Chesky, Bob Moesta, Aaron Levie, Sophia Amoruso, Reid Hoffman, Frank Slootman, Billy McFarland
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TWIST VC Roundtable: Startup Valuations, Secondary Markets & the YC Revenue Illusion | E2137
Today’s show: Alex moderates a TWIST VC Roundtable with Jason, Paige Doherty (Behind Genius), and Altimeter’s Megan Reynolds about the state of early-stage venture capital. They break down the rise of secondary markets as a key liquidity path for VCs, analyze the resurgence in M&A activity from major players like Meta, Databricks, and OpenAI, and question whether inflated ARR figures from YC startups are distorting valuations. Jason shares his year-zero investment thesis and offers tactical advice on secondary structuring and identifying high-quality revenue. Whether you're raising, investing, or building, this episode delivers essential insights into the evolving early-stage landscape.
Timestamps:
(0:00) Episode Teaser(1:28) Meet our panelists!(2:37) Will secondaries replace traditional M&A?(10:10) LinkedIn Ads - Get a $100 LinkedIn ad credit at http://www.linkedin.com/thisweekinstartups(14:28) Has M&A actually bounced back?(20:06) Pilot - Visit https://www.pilot.com/twist and get $1,200 off your first year.(25:35) Secondary market advice, just for founders(30:10) Retool - Visit https://www.retool.com/twist and try it out today.(32:49) Why is it so hard for emerging managers to raise funds?
(38:28) Seed funds: the math is not mathing(52:07) Why early investors become “collateral damage”(56:31) The importance of revenue quality in early-stage startups(1:06:43) Quick Fire Question Round!
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Links from episode:
Altimeter: https://www.altimeter.com/homeBehind Genius: https://www.behindgeniusventures.com/
Follow Meghan:
X: https://x.com/MeghanKReynolds
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/meghankreynolds/
Follow Paige:X: https://x.com/paigefinnn
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/paigedoherty/
Follow Alex:
X: https://x.com/alex
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/alexwilhelm
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X: https://twitter.com/Jason
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jasoncalacanis
Thank you to our partners:
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(20:06) Pilot - Visit https://www.pilot.com/twist and get $1,200 off your first year.
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Great TWIST interviews: Will Guidara, Eoghan McCabe, Steve Huffman, Brian Chesky, Bob Moesta, Aaron Levie, Sophia Amoruso, Reid Hoffman, Frank Slootman, Billy McFarland
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Full $FB earnings breakdown, NFT company violates music IP + Behind Genius' Paige Finn: Angel S6 E4 | E1377
In the opening news segment, Molly and Jason break down the numbers behind Facebook's colossal drop in market cap (2:42). Then, they cover a company that seems to be violating music copyrights to sell NFTS (38:14).
Then, Paige Finn of Behind Genius joins for Episode 4 of Season 6 of Angel (49:45). Paige became interested in venture capital during college, but within a year and a half of graduating in 2020 she already has a fund!
In this episode you will learn:
1. How she secured her first allocation before having a fund
2. The steps she took to set up an SPV while being a non-accredited investor
3. How she raised a $1.6m fund
4. Behind Genius' investing thesis and strategy
5. The books that have most influenced her work and writing style
6. Why she wrote a picture book (for adults) called "Seed to Harvest: A Simple Explanation of Venture Capital"
00:00 Jason & Molly introduce the show
02:42 Facebook's painful $220B market cap drawdown
07:32 Is blaming Apple
10:29 LinkedIn - Post your first job for free at https://linkedIn.com/twist
11:37 "This is one of the most hardcore hits I've ever seen in business"
14:11 Would Zuckerberg leaving hurt the company even more?
17:33 Do rebrand's ever really work?
20:08 Embroker - Get an extra 10% off insurance for your business at https://Embroker.com/twist
21:29 Could Facebook have been a successful hardware operator?
25:03 Breaking down the numbers around Meta's future business
30:32 Ourcrowd - Check out the deal of the week at https://ourcrowd.com/twist
31:51 Is there a solution for Zuckerberg?
36:28 How Jason's divorced friends use Instagram
38:12 NFT site "Hitpiece" accused of trying to sell songs without consulting original artists
49:44 Interview - Paige Finn of Behind Genius
52:02 How Paige learned about VC in 2018
55:28 Behind Genius' investing thesis and strategy
1:00:05 How Paige set up an SPV while being a non-accredited investor
1:10:11 How her book "Seed to Harvest: A Simple Explanation of Venture Capital" helped her gain credibility
1:13:51 Paige's most influential books
1:23:09 Paige's day to day life as an investor
1:33:55 Plugs from the TWIST team
Check out Behind Genius Ventures: https://www.behindgeniusventures.com
FOLLOW Packy: https://twitter.com/paigefinnn
FOLLOW Jason: https://linktr.ee/calacanis
FOLLOW Molly: https://twitter.com/mollywood