Why $1B Exits are Dead
David George, General Partner at a16z, and David Clark, CIO at VenCap, discuss how AI is reshaping venture capital and the technology industry itself. They examine why today’s AI companies are scaling faster than any previous generation of startups, and why the eventual outcomes may be significantly larger than most investors currently expect.
The conversation covers frontier AI models, coding agents, open source competition, data center constraints, and who ultimately captures value in the AI ecosystem. They also discuss what these shifts mean for venture capital itself, including larger company outcomes, faster value creation, and the growing challenge of identifying durable winners in a market evolving at unprecedented speed.
Resources:
Follow David George on X: https://x.com/DavidGeorge83
Follow David Clark on X: https://x.com/daveclark85
Follow VenCap on X: https://www.vencap.com
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Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.
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“The best founders find a way to make it happen”: VC Roundtable with Bryan Kim and David Clark | E2222
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Today’s show:
Boom is still making supersonic jets but ALSO plans to start selling their turbines as power sources for AI data centers. It’s a perfect example of problem-solving on the go and how “the best founders… MAKE IT HAPPEN.”
Join us for another insightful VC roundtable episode, featuring special guests Bryan Kim (a16z) and David Clark (Ven Cap).
They’re discussing why Boom’s turbine announcement is about necessity AND opportunity PLUS…
- Why we might NOT be in an AI bubble after all
- Promoting your startup without spending your entire runway on marketing
- Why founders need to be RELENTLESS
- Bill Gurley’s classic response about Uber’s Total Addressable Market
- AND LOTS MORE
Bill Gurley’s iconic “Miss By a Mile” post: https://abovethecrowd.com/2014/07/11/how-to-miss-by-a-mile-an-alternative-look-at-ubers-potential-market-size/
Link to David’s LinkedIn (including the AI Bubble chart): https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7404139606398443520/
Timestamps:
(02:11) It’s a VC Roundtable with special guests Bryan Kim (a16z) and David Clark (Ven Cap)
(03:07) Why Bryan is leading a Series A into learning app Oboe
(06:20) Calculating a startup’s value to make everyone “somewhat unhappy”
(09:19) How Oboe hits a lot of the same metrics that LAUNCH looks for in startups
(11:58) Uber AI Solutions - Your trusted partner to get AI to work in the real world. Book a demo with them TODAY at http://uber.com/ai-solutions
(12:57) How funds decide when to cash out and lock in some DPI
(18:12) When some LPs want to sell and others want to buy…
(19:57) Pilot - Visit https://www.pilot.com/twist and get $1,200 off your first year.
(24:07) Is the threat of AI job displacement boosting self-improvement apps?
(27:37) Why Jason says we’re all standing on the shoulders of Bill Gurley
(29:46) Northwest Registered Agent - Form your entire business identity in just 10 clicks and 10 minutes. Get more privacy, more options, and more done—visit https://www.northwestregisteredagent.com/twist today!
(31:28) Boom’s turbine pivot, and why it’s about necessity AND opportunity (in that order)
(34:14) THE BEST FOUNDERS find a way to make it happen!
(39:10) So… are we in an AI bubble? David says NOT NECESSARILY! Checking out the actual metrics.
(44:36) We’re still SO EARLY in AI… We’re still seeing mostly skeuomorphic uses! (It’s a real word!)
(48:06) William Gibson was right: “The Street finds its own uses for things”
(51:11) How AI startups should think about margins
(55:58) Why LAUNCH tells founders to “start at the high end”
(57:33) Should founders spend a lot of $$$ on marketing in 2025? The panel disagrees!
(1:00:05) Momentum vs. Product Release Velocity
(1:03:26) It all comes back to the “relentlessness of the founder”
(1:05:17) Our panel’s hopes and dreams for the coming year
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LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jasoncalacanis/
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(19:57) Pilot - Visit https://www.pilot.com/twist and get $1,200 off your first year.
(29:46) Northwest Registered Agent - Form your entire business identity in just 10 clicks and 10 minutes. Get more privacy, more options, and more done—visit https://www.northwestregisteredagent.com/twist today!
Tomasz Tunguz and David Clark on how to invest in AI and Q1 2024 startup valuations | E1930
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Todays show:
David Weisburd hosts David Clark, Tomasz Tunguz, and Jason Calacanis to discuss the new YC class (1:59), startup valuations (19:34), the investment landscape (30:17), and more!
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Timestamps:
(00:00) David Weisburd intros David Clark, Tomasz Tunguz, and Jason Calacanis
(1:59) The latest YC class and rise of AI startups
(9:36) Squarespace - Use offer code TWIST to save 10% off your first purchase of a website or domain at http://www.Squarespace.com/TWIST
(10:55) Role of the founding team in AI startups
(19:34) Startup valuations and the changing landscape of seed deals and Series A rounds
(29:01) OpenPhone - Get 20% off your first six months at http://www.openphone.com/twist
(30:17) Tomasz Tunguz’s journey to raising his fund and the challenges of the VC industry
(37:32) Personality types in venture capital and handling company wind downs
(39:20) CLA - Get started with CLA's CPAs, consultants, and wealth advisors now at https://claconnect.com/tech
(40:52) VC’s moving out and the challenge of picking the right company to invest in
(59:27) Active reserves management
(1:09:00) Lightning round: Top 3 investments
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Mentioned on show:
https://motherduck.com
https://arbitrum.io
https://www.omni.co
https://www.podengine.ai
https://www.getrecall.ai
https://newcomergames.com
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Follow David Clark:
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LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/david-clark-6678b6b/
Check out VenCap: https://www.vencap.com/
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Thank you to our partners:
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(39:20) CLA - Get started with CLA's CPAs, consultants, and wealth advisors now at https://claconnect.com/tech
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Great 2023 interviews: Steve Huffman, Brian Chesky, Aaron Levie, Sophia Amoruso, Reid Hoffman, Frank Slootman, Billy McFarland
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Check out Jason’s suite of newsletters: https://substack.com/@calacanis
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20VC: Lessons from 32 Years of Fund Investing | Why Exits Will Be Larger & Funds Sizes Bigger | Top Reasons to Turn Down Potential Fund Investments | Fees, Carry, Deployment Pace; What Do LPs Inspect When Fund Investing with David Clark, CIO @ Vencap
David Clark is the CIO of Vencap, one of the leading fund of funds in the venture landscape. David has been at Vencap for 32 years and has been an LP his entire career.
In Today's Episode with David Clark We Discuss:
1. From Unemployed Student in Love to Leading LP:
How did a girlfriend lead to David taking his first steps into the world of fund investing?
What does David know now about fund investing that he wishes he had known when he started?
2. Is Being an LP Harder than Ever Before:
Does David agree with Doug Leone, "venture has transitioned from a boutique high margin business to a low margin commoditised industry"?
Does David agree with Ryan Akinna @ MIT, "it is harder than ever to be an LP"?
Does David think that venture returns will worsen in the coming years?
Has the denominator effect for LPs gone? Do LPs have liquidity today?
3. What Makes the Best Performing Funds:
What are the single biggest commonalities in managers that did a 3x net DPI fund?
Of managers with a 3x net fund, how many had a single company return the fund?
How do the best firms do generational transition?
How do the best firms take cash off the table and sell part or all of their position?
4. Five Things LPs Hate In Potential VC Investments:
What are the two most common reasons David will turn down a manager?
How does David feel about the varying fee and carry levels?
How does David feel about the compression of deployment times of funds?
How does David feel about managers increasing fund size so significantly on every cycle?
5. Fund Sizes, Exits and Concentrating Returns:
Why does David believe exit sizes will increase and fund sizes could be even larger?
Why does David think that despite the above, the concentration of returns will be even smaller?
Is David concerned by the IPO window being largely shut and the increased regulation on M&A?
Unlocking the Power of Data with VenCap’s David Clark | E1906
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Todays show:
Jason joins David Clark of VenCap to discuss what distinguishes longevity and success in VC (5:25), the importance of strategy and timing when selling (25:47), preparing with founders for when things may go south (48:43), and more!
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Timestamps:
(0:00) David Clark joins Jason.
(2:41) Looking at the data behind VenCap’s approach to alpha vs beta, managers and their over 500 investments to date.
(5:25) What distinguishes longevity and success in VC.
(9:15) Analyzing the data from David's chart covering 12,000 companies and the power law.
(10:34) Gusto - Get three months free when you run your first payroll at http://www.gusto.com/twist
(12:43) Portfolio strategy and finding that 1% of fund returners.
(18:59) The value of investing in a company over a longer period of time.
(21:23) Northwest Registered Agent - Get a 60% discount on your next LLC at - https://www.northwestregisteredagent.com/twist
(22:17) The challenges VenCap faces when looking at seed managers.
(25:47) The importance of strategy and timing on selling.
(29:18 ) Uizard - Get 25% off Uizard Pro for an entire year at http://www.uizard.io/twist
(33:05) Managing successful GPs and having them ‘stay in the game’.
(41:49) The misunderstandings of the J-Curve.
(48:43) Preparing with founders for when things may go south.
(58:36) Founder Fridays message from Jason.
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LINKS:
Check out VenCap: https://www.vencap.com/
Watch the Brian Singerman episode here: https://youtu.be/o5Z0-d5w18M
Watch the Michael Kim episode here: https://youtu.be/a2FL_FvwoUA
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Follow David:
X: https://twitter.com/daveclark85
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/david-clark-6678b6b/?originalSubdomain=uk
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X: https://twitter.com/jason
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/jason
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jasoncalacanis
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Thank you to our partners:
(10:34) Gusto - Get three months free when you run your first payroll at http://www.gusto.com/twist
*Gusto pricing shown in ad is based on pricing prior to March 2025
(21:23) Northwest Registered Agent - Get a 60% discount on your next LLC at - https://www.northwestregisteredagent.com/twist
(29:18 ) Uizard - Get 25% off Uizard Pro for an entire year at http://www.uizard.io/twist
*
Great 2023 interviews: Steve Huffman, Brian Chesky, Aaron Levie, Sophia Amoruso, Reid Hoffman, Frank Slootman, Billy McFarland
*
Check out Jason’s suite of newsletters: https://substack.com/@calacanis
*
Follow TWiST:
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