Wyatt Thomson of OpenAI speaks with economists Tyler Cowen and Alex Tabarrok about AI, labor markets, and the future of economic growth.
The conversation explores one of the most common fears surrounding AI: that increasingly capable systems will eliminate jobs. Cowen and Tabarrok argue instead that economic growth remains the key variable. Throughout history, productivity-enhancing technologies have transformed work, created new industries, and expanded living standards, even as they disrupted existing jobs and institutions.
They discuss automation, comparative advantage, inequality, education, healthcare, energy, and the kinds of work that may become more valuable in an AI-driven economy. Along the way, they examine longer-term questions about abundance, ownership, AI agents, and how societies can adapt to rapid technological change.
Resources:
Follow Tyler on X: https://x.com/tylercowen
Follow Alex on X: https://x.com/ATabarrok
Follow Wyatt on X: https://x.com/dataWyatt
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Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.
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Theo Jaffee and Sophia Puccini speak with economist Robin Hanson about prediction markets, gambling, and why he believes speculative markets are one of the most powerful tools humans have for aggregating information and forecasting outcomes.
The conversation begins with Minnesota’s recent law criminalizing prediction markets before expanding into the broader backlash surrounding platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. Hanson explains his long-term vision for “decision markets,” where markets could help guide choices made by companies, governments, and even individuals.
Along the way, they discuss sports betting, games and human psychology, futurism, AI, and Hanson’s broader work on how societies misunderstand risk, incentives, and coordination
Resources:
Follow Robin Hanson on X: https://x.com/robinhanson
Follow Theo Jaffee on X: https://x.com/theojaffee
Follow Sophia Puccini on X: https://x.com/schisofrenia
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In many respects, AI technology is already mind-blowing, and can perform many tasks far better than the average person. And yet by and large, its impact has been hard to detect. We haven't seen some huge labor displacement, for example. There's nothing dramatic yet happening in the productivity data. So when will the impact really start to be felt? On this episode, we speak with Tyler Cowen, a professor at George Mason University and the co-author of the famed econ blog Marginal Revolution. He's also the host of the Conversations with Tyler podcast. We talk about when we'll really start feeling AIs impact, as well as other topics, like food, music, and the general state of discourse.
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In this episode, general partner Chris Dixon joins economist and author Tyler Cowen to explore the themes behind Chris’s book, Read, Write, Own: Building the Next Era of the Internet.
They trace the internet’s evolution from open, decentralized beginnings to today’s consolidated platforms—and ask: how can we build something better? From stablecoins, tokenized payments, and open blockchains to AI's impact on coding, media, and politics, this wide-ranging conversation dives deep into how technologies like crypto and AI could help redistribute power online and reshape the future of ownership and innovation.
The two also debate:
Whether banks and legacy institutions will adopt stablecoins
The long-term role of NFTs and digital property rights
How AI might rewrite venture capital, education, and economic planning
Whether we're heading toward a creative renaissance—or a world of AI-generated monoculture
Listen to similar conversations, listen to web3 with a16z: https://web3-with-a16z.simplecast.com/
Resources:
Listen to Conversations with Tyler: https://conversationswithtyler.com/
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I interviewed Tyler Cowen at the Progress Conference 2024. As always, I had a blast. This is my fourth interview with him – and yet I’m always hearing new stuff.
We talked about why he thinks AI won't drive explosive economic growth, the real bottlenecks on world progress, him now writing for AIs instead of humans, and the difficult relationship between being cultured and fostering growth – among many other things in the full episode.
Thanks to the Roots of Progress Institute (with special thanks to Jason Crawford and Heike Larson) for such a wonderful conference, and to FreeThink for the videography.
Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here.
Sponsors
I’m grateful to Tyler for volunteering to say a few words about Jane Street. It's the first time that a guest has participated in the sponsorship. I hope you can see why Tyler and I think so highly of Jane Street. To learn more about their open rules, go to janestreet.com/dwarkesh.
Timestamps
(00:00:00) Economic Growth and AI
(00:14:57) Founder Mode and increasing variance
(00:29:31) Effective Altruism and Progress Studies
(00:33:05) What AI changes for Tyler
(00:44:57) The slow diffusion of innovation
(00:49:53) Stalin's library
(00:52:19) DC vs SF vs EU
Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe
Professor J.W. Verret teaches corporate and securities law and financial accounting at George Mason Law School.
In this episode of The Scoop, Verret discusses the potential legal challenges that Uniswap may face from the Securities and Exchange Commission and highlights the similarities between the Coinbase case and the possible claims against Uniswap.
Verret says the charges the SEC is likely to bring against Uniswap could include operating as an unlicensed broker dealer, operating an unregistered exchange, and/or selling unregistered securities.
In this episode, Nathan sits down with Robin Hanson, associate professor of economics at George Mason University and researcher at Oxford’s Future of Humanity Institute. They discuss the comparison of human brains to LLMs and legacy software systems, what it would take for AI and automation to significantly impact the economy, our relationships with AI and the moral weight it has, and much more. Try the Brave search API for free for up to 2000 queries per month at https://brave.com/api
LINKS:
Robin’s Book, The Age of Em: https://ageofem.com/
Robin’s essay on Automation: https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/no-recent-automation-revolutionhtml
Robin’s Blog: https://www.overcomingbias.com/
AI Scouting Report: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0hvtiVQ_LqQ&list=PLVfJCYRuaJIXooK_KWju5djdVmEpH81ee&pp=iAQB
Dr. Isaac Kohane Episode: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pS5Vye671Xg
SPONSORS:
The Brave search API can be used to assemble a data set to train your AI models and help with retrieval augmentation at the time of inference. All while remaining affordable with developer first pricing, integrating the Brave search API into your workflow translates to more ethical data sourcing and more human representative data sets. Try the Brave search API for free for up to 2000 queries per month at https://brave.com/api
Omneky is an omnichannel creative generation platform that lets you launch hundreds of thousands of ad iterations that actually work customized across all platforms, with a click of a button. Omneky combines generative AI and real-time advertising data. Mention "Cog Rev" for 10% off www.omneky.com
NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you're looking for an ERP platform ✅ head to NetSuite: http://netsuite.com/cognitive and download your own customized KPI checklist.
X/SOCIAL:
@labenz
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@CogRev_Podcast
TIMESTAMPS
(00:00) Preview
(07:10) Why our current time is a “dream time” and the move back to a Malthusian world
(13:30) What sort of world should we be striving for?
(13:40) Sponsor - Brave
(17:50) Distinguishing value talk from factual talk
(18:00) Comparing and contrasting Ems to LLMs
(22:30) The comparison of human brains to legacy software systems
(30:52) Sponsor - Netsuite
(41:01) AIs in medicine
(53:30) A several century innovation pause
(55:30) Achieving full human level AI in the next 60-90 years
(1:03:55) Chess and routine benchmarks not a good predictor of AI performance in the economy
(1:07:44) Reaching and exceeding human-level AI in the next 1000 years
(1:11:40) Losing technologies tied to scale economies
(1:12:00) Why AI is hard to maintain in the long run
(1:12:20) Standard deviation in automation
(1:14:05) Computing power grows exponentially but automation grows steadily
(1:15:50) AI art generation and deepfakes
(01:21:42) The economics of AI-powered coding
(1:33:51) Merging LLMs
(1:36:02) Rot in software and the human brain
(1:40:18) Parallelism in LLMs and brain design
(1:41:00]) Moral weight for AIs, enslavement, and cooperation with AI
(1:47:10) What would change Robin’s mind about the future
(1:49:18) Wrap
This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co.
It was a great pleasure speaking with Tyler Cowen for the 3rd time.
We discussed GOAT: Who is the Greatest Economist of all Time and Why Does it Matter?, especially in the context of how the insights of Hayek, Keynes, Smith, and other great economists help us make sense of AI, growth, animal spirits, prediction markets, alignment, central planning, and much more.
The topics covered in this episode are too many to summarize. Hope you enjoy!
Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.
Timestamps
(0:00:00) - John Maynard Keynes
(00:17:16) - Controversy
(00:25:02) - Fredrick von Hayek
(00:47:41) - John Stuart Mill
(00:52:41) - Adam Smith
(00:58:31) - Coase, Schelling, & George
(01:08:07) - Anarchy
(01:13:16) - Cheap WMDs
(01:23:18) - Technocracy & political philosophy
(01:34:16) - AI & Scaling
Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe
Friend.tech, a decentralized social media platform in which you can buy and sell “keys” in your friends on X (formerly known as Twitter) whose value can go up and down, has become a viral sensation, racking up as many as 100,000 users since launching on August 10. Should keys be considered securities and thus regulated by the SEC? How should gains and losses be taxed? And how private should users assume their communications and transactions on the platform are? Securities and banking law professor at George Mason Law School JW Verret, and tax partner and co-head of the Digital Assets and Blockchain Practice at Fried Frank Jason Schwartz, share their thoughts.
Listen to the episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Overcast, Podcast Addict, Pocket Casts, Stitcher, Castbox, Google Podcasts, Amazon Music, or on your favorite podcast platform.
Show highlights:
how Friend.tech works and how the price of keys is determined
how Friend.tech is different from many other past attempts at creating a decentralized social media platform
whether the keys offered by Friend.tech could be deemed securities by the SEC
what wrapped Friend.tech tokens are and whether these could be considered securities
why the traditional approach to crypto taxation is bad for most Friend.tech taxpayers
what the tax implications of Friend.tech airdrops are
what Friend.tech users should assume about their privacy on the app
what the future holds for Friend.tech
Thank you to our sponsors!
Crypto.com
Arbitrum Foundation
Toku
Guests:
J.W. Verret, Associate Professor of Law at George Mason Law School
Previous appearance on Unchained: Coinbase's Legal Action Against the SEC: How It Will Likely Unfold
Jason Schwartz, tax partner and co-head of the Digital Assets and Blockchain Practice at Fried, Frank
Friend.Tech Shows How Complicated Taxing Crypto Transactions Can Be by Jason Schwartz
Links
Unchained:
Friend.tech Threatens to Penalize Users That Move to Copies or Forks
Friend.tech Clarifies That Database of 100,000 Users Was Not Leaked
What Is SocialFi? A Beginner’s Guide
The ‘Howey Test’ and the Debate Over Crypto's Legal Status - Crypto Security vs Commodity
CoinDesk: Friend.tech Attracted NBA Influencers. So Why Does Everyone Think Crypto’s Latest Trend Will Die?
Decrypt: Friend.tech Renames Its Token—But Is It Even Legal?
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Professor J.W. Verret teaches corporate and securities law and financial accounting at George Mason Law School.
In this episode, Verret analyzes the recent verdict on Ripple's XRP token which concludes that "Ripple’s Programmatic Sales of XRP did not constitute the offer and sale of investment contracts."
In addition to providing a degree of regulatory clarity for crypto assets, Verret also argues that the court's decision in the XRP case will greatly improve Coinbase's chances in their court case against the SEC.
Outline:
1:05 - XRP Court Verdict
6:00 - Coinbase Re-listing XRP
7:15 - Coinbase vs. SEC
9:55 - Will the SEC Settle?
12:08 - Appellate Court
13:04 - New SEC Chair
14:06 - Unregistered Securities
15:00 - Major Questions Doctrine
16:22 - Crypto Legislation
17:00 - Partisan Politics
20:40 - Spot Bitcoin ETF
22:05 - Closing Thoughts
Previously on The Scoop, Professor J.W. Verret explained how the ‘major questions doctrine’ could put an end to SEC Chair Gensler’s regulation by enforcement.
In this episode, Verret continues his analysis of the SEC's recent enforcement actions against Coinbase and Binance, and examines the ways in which U.S. regulation of the crypto industry might be able to strike a balance between innovation and consumer protection.
This episode is brought to you by our sponsors PayPal and CleanSpark.
About PayPal
Make your crypto move with PayPal. Get started today at PayPal.com/crypto
About CleanSpark
CleanSpark (NASDAQ: CLSK) is America’s Bitcoin Miner™. Visit cleanspark.com/theblock to learn more about the CleanSpark way.
Professor J.W. Verret teaches corporate and securities law and financial accounting at George Mason Law School.
From May 2018 to March 2022, Professor Verret served as an Advisory Committee Member to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission where he represented the interests of investors in making recommendations to SEC Chair Gensler and other Commissioners.
In part one of this two part interview, Verret explains how a principle of administrative law in the United States known as the 'major questions doctrine' could challenge the SEC's use of the Howey Test to determine if an asset is a security under federal law.
According to Verret, the major questions doctrine is a way for the court to check the power of independent agencies:
"If Congress has not given you specific authority to regulate a thing as an agency and you're seeking to regulate it, if it involves a major question of national, economic or political importance, then you need to get authorization from Congress before you do anything."
The major questions doctrine will likely not be discussed until the SEC's lawsuits against Coinbase and Binance.US reach the appellate courts, says Verret, "but it's one of the things that looms over these cases, without a doubt."
This episode is brought to you by our sponsors PayPal and CleanSpark.
About PayPal
Make your crypto move with PayPal. Get started today at PayPal.com/crypto
About CleanSpark
CleanSpark (NASDAQ: CLSK) is America’s Bitcoin Miner™. Visit cleanspark.com/theblock to learn more about the CleanSpark way.
Major crypto exchange Coinbase has decided to take action to get an answer from the Securities and Exchange Commission: this week, they filed a court action seeking to compel Gary Gensler’s agency to give specific rulemaking on crypto assets. J.W. Verret, associate professor of law at George Mason Law School, talks about how both parties are playing this game, how it could change the Howey test, and much more.
Listen to the episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Overcast, Podcast Addict, Pocket Casts, Stitcher, Castbox, Google Podcasts, TuneIn, Amazon Music, or on your favorite podcast platform.
Show highlights:
whether there's a long-term chess strategy being played by Coinbase
whether the case could actually change the Howey test
why the 'West Virginia vs. EPA' is important for crypto
what the SEC's strategy is and why the Kraken settlement was an “overreach,” according to J.W.
whether the SEC could develop a new framework for crypto assets
how the Ripple case will unfold and how long it will take if it is appealed
Thank you to our sponsors!
Crypto.com
Railgun DAO
Guest
J.W. Verret, Associate Professor of Law at George Mason Law School
J.W.’s thread
My story of telling the SEC ‘I told you so’ on FTX
Public Request for Rulemaking: Securities Regulation Genesis Block Proposal
Previous coverage of Unchained on the SEC’s actions:
Rep. Emmer on Why He Believes Gary Gensler Is a ‘Bad-Faith Regulator’
Is the Government Trying to Kill Off Crypto in the US?
Coinbase’s Top Lawyer Calls SEC Wells Notice a ‘Massive Overreach’
Links
Unchained: Coinbase Seeks to Compel SEC Response to Rulemaking Petition - Unchained Crypto
Coinbase takes another formal step to seek regulatory clarity from SEC for the crypto industry
IN THE UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS FOR THE THIRD CIRCUIT COINBASE, INC.’S PETITION FOR WRIT OF MANDAMUS TO THE
Coinbase petition for SEC rulemaking
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In this highly anticipated sequel to our 1st AI conversation with Eliezer Yudkowsky, we bring you a thought-provoking discussion with Robin Hanson, a professor of economics at George Mason University and a research associate at the Future of Humanity Institute of Oxford University.
Eliezer painted a chilling and grim picture of a future where AI ultimately kills us all. Robin is here to provide a different perspective.
------ ✨ DEBRIEF | Unpacking the episode: https://www.bankless.com/debrief-robin-hanson ------ ✨ COLLECTIBLES | Collect this episode: https://collectibles.bankless.com/mint
------ ✨ NEW BANKLESS PRODUCT | Token Hub https://bankless.cc/TokenHubRSS
------ In this episode, we explore:
- Why Robin believes Eliezer is wrong and that we're not all going to die from an AI takeover. But will we potentially become their pets instead? - The possibility of a civil war between multiple AIs and why it's more likely than being dominated by a single superintelligent AI. - Robin's concerns about the regulation of AI and why he believes it's a greater threat than AI itself. - A fascinating analogy: why Robin thinks alien civilizations might spread like cancer? - Finally, we dive into the world of crypto and explore Robin's views on this rapidly evolving technology.
Whether you're an AI enthusiast, a crypto advocate, or just someone intrigued by the big-picture questions about humanity and its prospects, this episode is one you won't want to miss.
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------ Topics Covered
0:00 Intro 8:42 How Robin is Weird 10:00 Are We All Going to Die? 13:50 Eliezer’s Assumption 25:00 Intelligence, Humans, & Evolution 27:31 Eliezer Counter Point 32:00 Acceleration of Change 33:18 Comparing & Contrasting Eliezer’s Argument 35:45 A New Life Form 44:24 AI Improving Itself 47:04 Self Interested Acting Agent 49:56 Human Displacement? 55:56 Many AIs 1:00:18 Humans vs. Robots 1:04:14 Pause or Continue AI Innovation? 1:10:52 Quiet Civilization 1:14:28 Grabby Aliens 1:19:55 Are Humans Grabby? 1:27:29 Grabby Aliens Explained 1:36:16 Cancer 1:40:00 Robin’s Thoughts on Crypto 1:42:20 Closing & Disclaimers
------ Resources:
Robin Hanson https://twitter.com/robinhanson
Eliezer Yudkowsky on Bankless https://www.bankless.com/159-were-all-gonna-die-with-eliezer-yudkowsky
What is the AI FOOM debate? https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/the-hanson-yudkowsky-ai-foom-debate
Age of Em book - Robin Hanson https://ageofem.com/
Grabby Aliens https://grabbyaliens.com/
Kurzgesagt video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GDSf2h9_39I&t=1s
----- Not financial or tax advice. This channel is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. This video is not tax advice. Talk to your accountant. Do your own research.
Disclosure. From time-to-time I may add links in this newsletter to products I use. I may receive commission if you make a purchase through one of these links. Additionally, the Bankless writers hold crypto assets. See our investment disclosures here: https://www.bankless.com/disclosures
Robin Hanson is an associate professor of economics at George Mason. He is known for a number of his works including Prediction Markets and Futarchy, writings on the possibility of alien life with both the Great Filter and Grabby Aliens, his book The Elephant In The Brain about our social programming, as well as extensive work and thought in the field of artificial intelligence including a very prescient series of debates and writings with Eliezer Yudkowsky 15 years ago.
(0:00) Intro
(0:54) Introducing Robin Hanson
(5:47) Defining basic concepts
(9:47) The alignment problem
(19:43) Property rights in A.I.
(21:48) The recent A.I. ecosystem
(30:01) GPT4
(33:51) A.I. Doomerism
(38:04) Rabbit hole analogy
(43:47) A.I. Critic Scenario
(51:57) Risks associated with A.I.
(57:24) Pausing development on A.I. to focus on implications
(1:02:33) Predictions by 2028 A.I. will not be able to cross
(1:08:15) Fast takeoff scenario
(1:15:39) Brain emulation
(1:22:19) Cryonics
Show Notes:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TuXl-iidnFY
Mixed and edited: Justin Hrabovsky
Produced: Rashad Assir
Executive Producer: Josh Machiz
Music: Griff Lawson
🎙 Listen to the show
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About the Show
Logan Bartlett is a Software Investor at Redpoint Ventures - a Silicon Valley-based VC with $6B AUM and investments in Snowflake, DraftKings, Twilio, Netflix. In each episode, Logan goes behind the scenes with world-class entrepreneurs and investors. If you're interested in the real inside baseball of tech, entrepreneurship, and start-up investing, tune in every Friday for new episodes.
Executive Producer: Rashad Assir
Producer: Leah Clapper
Mixing and editing: Justin Hrabovsky
Check out Unsupervised Learning, Redpoint's AI Podcast: https://www.youtube.com/@UCUl-s_Vp-Kkk_XVyDylNwLA
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About the Show
Logan Bartlett is a Software Investor at Redpoint Ventures - a Silicon Valley-based VC with $6B AUM and investments in Snowflake, DraftKings, Twilio, and Netflix. In each episode of The Logan Bartlett Show, we sit down with the people behind today’s most important startups and extract the tactics, lessons, and frameworks they’ve learned the hard way. Conversations span hiring to GTM, product, growth, fundraising and everything in between - collectively forming the ultimate playbook to make you a better CEO, investor or board member.
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Garett Jones is an economist at George Mason University and the author of The Cultural Transplant, Hive Mind, and 10% Less Democracy.
This episode was fun and interesting throughout!
He explains:
* Why national IQ matters
* How migrants bring their values to their new countries
* Why we should have less democracy
* How the Chinese are an unstoppable global force for free markets
Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform.
Timestamps
(00:00:00) - Intro
(00:01:08) - Migrants Change Countries with Culture or Votes?
(00:09:15) - Impact of Immigrants on Markets & Corruption
(00:12:02) - 50% Open Borders?
(00:16:54) - Chinese are Unstoppable Capitalists
(00:21:39) - Innovation & Immigrants
(00:24:53) - Open Borders for Migrants Equivalent to Americans?
(00:28:54) - Let's Ignore Side Effects?
(00:30:25) - Are Poor Countries Stuck?
(00:32:26) - How Can Effective Altruists Increase National IQ
(00:39:13) - Clone a million John von Neumann?
(00:44:39) - Genetic Selection for IQ
(00:47:02) - Democracy, Fed, FDA, & Presidential Power
(00:49:42) - EU is a force for good?
(00:55:12) - Why is America More Libertarian Than Median Voter?
(00:56:19) - Is Ethnic Conflict a Short Run Problem?
(00:59:38) - Bond Holder Democracy
(01:04:57) - Mormonism
(01:08:52) - Garett Jones's Immigration System
(01:10:12) - Interviewing SBF
Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe
✨ DEBRIEF | Unpacking the Episode: https://shows.banklesshq.com/p/tyler-cowen-debrief
------ Tyler Cowen is an American economist, columnist, and blogger. He’s also a professor at George Mason University, where he also produces the Conversations with Tyler podcast with guests like Vitalik Buterin. Marc Andreessen, and Ray Dalio.
In today’s episode, Tyler shares why he thinks regulators should pause and wait before passing crypto regulation in the wake of FTX, how FTX and Enron are similar, why he calls himself a crypto-hopeful (even though he thinks Balaji’s Network State idea is utterly wrong). And finally, we play Tyler's favorite game—Overrated vs. Underrated—about everything relevant in 2023: Crypto AI, Inflation, America, China, Social Media, Wealth Inequality, and more.
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------ Topics Covered
0:00 Intro 6:10 Tyler’s 2023 Crypto Thoughts 6:50 Why Crypto is Confusing 9:04 Is Crypto Overrated? 10:25 Is Crypto Worth it? 12:19 Regulation 19:33 On-Chain Privacy, Taxes, Surveillance 24:00 FTX vs. Enron 27:35 Wealth Inequality 32:05 Crypto Regulation vs. Innovation 34:48 Can the U.S. Choke Crypto? 36:24 Crypto vs. the Internet 37:56 Whose at Fault for FTX? 40:00 Crypto Self-Regulation 45:16 A.I. Regulation 46:46 A.I.’s SBF Moment? 48:05 Is the Future Closer than it Appears? 50:31 Human Self-Regulation 51:16 Economists & Crypto 53:20 Vitalik 54:16 Free Markets & Greed 55:21 Overrated vs. Underrated 1:00:24 Balaji’s Network State 1:01:47 Banks 1:02:15 Closing & Disclaimers
------ Resources:
Tyler on Twitter https://twitter.com/tylercowen
Tyler’s Blog https://marginalrevolution.com/
Tyler’s Podcast https://conversationswithtyler.com/
Beware the Dangers of Crypto Regulation https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/beware-the-dangers-of-crypto-regulation/2023/01/03/27f6f31a-8b63-11ed-b86a-2e3a77336b8e_story.html
----- Not financial or tax advice. This channel is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. This video is not tax advice. Talk to your accountant. Do your own research.
Disclosure. From time-to-time I may add links in this newsletter to products I use. I may receive commission if you make a purchase through one of these links. Additionally, the Bankless writers hold crypto assets. See our investment disclosures here: https://www.bankless.com/disclosures
It was a fantastic pleasure to welcome Bryan Caplan back for a third time on the podcast! His most recent book is Don't Be a Feminist: Essays on Genuine Justice.
He explains why he thinks:
- Feminists are mostly wrong,
- We shouldn’t overtax our centi-billionaires,
- Decolonization should have emphasized human rights over democracy,
- Eastern Europe shows that we could accept millions of refugees.
Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here.
Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.
More really cool guests coming up; subscribe to find out about future episodes!
You may also enjoy my interviews with Tyler Cowen (about talent, collapse, & pessimism of sex), Charles Mann (about the Americas before Columbus & scientific wizardry), and Steve Hsu (about intelligence and embryo selection).
Timestamps
(00:12) - Don’t Be a Feminist
(16:53) - Western Feminism Ignores Infanticide
(19:59) - Why The Universe Hates Women
(32:02) - Women's Tears Have Too Much Power
(45:40) - Bryan Performs Standup Comedy!
(51:02) - Affirmative Action is Philanthropic Propaganda
(54:13) - Peer-effects as the Only Real Education
(58:24) - The Idiocy of Student Loan Forgiveness
(1:07:57) - Why Society is Becoming Mentally Ill
(1:10:50) - Open Borders & the Ultra-long Term
(1:14:37) - Why Cowen’s Talent Scouting Strategy is Ludicrous
(1:22:06) - Surprising Immigration Victories
(1:36:06) - The Most Successful Revolutions
(1:54:20) - Anarcho-Capitalism is the Ultimate Government
(1:55:40) - Billionaires Deserve their Wealth
Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe
It was my great pleasure to speak once again to Tyler Cowen. His most recent book is Talent, How to Find Energizers, Creatives, and Winners Across the World.
We discuss:
- how sex is more pessimistic than he is,
- why he expects society to collapse permanently,
- why humility, stimulants, & intelligence are overrated,
- how he identifies talent, deceit, & ambition,
- & much much much more!
Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here.
Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.
You may also enjoy my interviews of Bryan Caplan (about mental illness, discrimination, and poverty), David Deutsch (about AI and the problems with America’s constitution), and Steve Hsu (about intelligence and embryo selection).
Timestamps
(0:00) -Did Caplan Change On Education?
(1:17) - Travel vs. History
(3:10) - Do Institutions Become Left Wing Over Time?
(6:02) - What Does Talent Correlate With?
(13:00) - Humility, Mental Illness, Caffeine, and Suits
(19:20) - How does Education affect Talent?
(24:34) - Scouting Talent
(33:39) - Money, Deceit, and Emergent Ventures
(37:16) - Building Writing Stamina
(39:41) - When Does Intelligence Start to Matter?
(43:51) - Spotting Talent (Counter)signals
(53:30) - Will Reading Cowen’s Book Help You Win Emergent Ventures?
(1:02:15) - Existential risks and the Longterm
(1:10:41) - Cultivating Young Talent
(1:16:58) - The Lifespans of Public Intellectuals
(1:24:36) - Is Stagnation Inevitable?
(1:30:30) - What are Podcasts for?
Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe
Tyler Cowen, an economist and professor at George Mason University, discusses his latest book, “Talent: How to Identify Energizers, Creatives, and Winners Around the World.” Tyler also shares his thoughts on macroeconomic trends including whether the US is heading for a recession and controlling inflation. Follow Tyler on Twitter, @tylercowen.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Robin Hanson is a professor at George Mason University and researcher at Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford. Please support this podcast by checking out our sponsors:
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EPISODE LINKS:
Robin’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/robinhanson
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Grabby Aliens (paper): https://grabbyaliens.com/paper
The Elephant in the Brain (book): https://amazon.com/dp/0197551955/ref=nosim?tag=turingmachi08-20
The Age of Em (book): https://amazon.com/dp/0198817827/ref=nosim?tag=turingmachi08-20
PODCAST INFO:
Podcast website: https://lexfridman.com/podcast
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Spotify: https://spoti.fi/2nEwCF8
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YouTube Clips: https://youtube.com/lexclips
SUPPORT & CONNECT:
– Check out the sponsors above, it’s the best way to support this podcast
– Support on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/lexfridman
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– LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lexfridman
– Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/lexfridman
– Medium: https://medium.com/@lexfridman
OUTLINE:
Here’s the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time.
(00:00) – Introduction
(06:49) – Grabby aliens
(44:33) – War and competition
(50:07) – Global government
(1:02:58) – Humanity’s future
(1:13:00) – Hello aliens
(1:40:03) – UFO sightings
(2:04:40) – Conspiracy theories
(2:12:58) – Elephant in the brain
(2:26:29) – Medicine
(2:38:58) – Institutions
(3:05:52) – Physics
(3:10:43) – Artificial intelligence
(3:28:32) – Economics
(3:31:53) – Political science
(3:37:42) – Advice for young people
(3:46:33) – Darkest moments
(3:49:34) – Love and loss
(3:58:57) – Immortality
(4:02:53) – Simulation hypothesis
(4:13:10) – Meaning of life
My guests today are Tyler Cowen and Daniel Gross. Tyler is an economics professor and creator of one of the most popular economics blogs on the internet. Daniel is the founder of start-up accelerator Pioneer, having previously been a director at Apple and a partner at Y Combinator. Both Daniel and Tyler are prolific talent spotters and that is the focus of our discussion and their new book, which is called Talent. Please enjoy this conversation with Tyler Cowen and Daniel Gross.
For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page here.
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Invest Like the Best is a property of Colossus, LLC. For more episodes of Invest Like the Best, visit joincolossus.com/episodes.
Past guests include Tobi Lutke, Kevin Systrom, Mike Krieger, John Collison, Kat Cole, Marc Andreessen, Matthew Ball, Bill Gurley, Anu Hariharan, Ben Thompson, and many more.
Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here.
Follow us on Twitter: @patrick_oshag | @JoinColossus
Show Notes
[00:02:38] - [First question] - Defining what talent is to them writ large
[00:03:34] - The differences between means and ends in regards to talent
[00:04:14] - What the Diet Coke idea is and why it’s relevant
[00:06:32] - Types of energy that are valuable and the subtle differences between them
[00:07:40] - Thoughts on using a moneyball-like approach to acquiring and evaluating talent
[00:11:49] - The talent market and thinking about pricing talent specifically
[00:13:14] - What is seemingly overpriced in today’s talent landscape
[00:15:50] - Relationship between experience and/or age when it comes to talent
[00:20:34] - Lessons about the utility of intelligence and where they’ve lead them wrong
[00:23:35] - What’s beneath being an outsider and why it’s important
[00:24:46] - Why what people do in their downtime is worth considering
[00:31:41] - Things to try and get out of a reference call as an objective
[00:32:40] - Disabilities and what lead them write that chapter specifically
[00:35:01] - Whether or not talented people are happier
[00:38:40] - Lack of contentment and it’s dynamic influence over individuals
[00:41:01] - Where they think the other is most talented
[00:43:33] - Thinking about the physical side of mental performance
[00:45:49] - What was frustrating about writing the book
[00:48:25] - How they evaluate talent most differently now after having finished the book
[00:50:41] - What makes for a good bat signal and how to cast one well
[00:53:27] - Personality inventories and what they would and wouldn’t recommend
[00:54:15] - Geographical frictions and their role in high success rates
[00:56:08] - Antonio Gracias; Existing supply constraints on talent development
[01:00:01] - How they would redesign the current attractors of talent that we rely on today
[01:01:18] - Assembly line development and how we can improve and scale talent filters
[01:02:29] - The biggest open questions for talent today writ large
[01:05:16] - The kindest thing anyone has ever done for Tyler
I interview the economist Bryan Caplan about his new book, Labor Econ Versus the World, and many other related topics.
Bryan Caplan is a Professor of Economics at George Mason University and a New York Times Bestselling author. His most famous works include: The Myth of the Rational Voter, Selfish Reasons to Have More Kids, The Case Against Education, and Open Borders: The Science and Ethics of Immigration.
Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform.
Podcast website here.
Follow Bryan on Twitter. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.
Timestamps:
(0:00:00) - Intro
(0:00:33) - How many workers are useless, and why is labor force participation so low?
(0:03:47) - Is getting out of poverty harder than we think?
(0:10:43) - Are elites to blame for poverty?
(0:14:56) - Is human nature to blame for poverty?
(0:19:11) - Remote work and foreign wages
(0:24:43) - The future of the education system?
(0:29:31) - Do employers care about the difficulty of a curriculum?
(0:33:13) - Why do companies and colleges discriminate against Asians?
(0:42:01) - Applying Hanania's unitary actor model to mental health
(0:50:38) - Why are multinationals so effective?
(0:53:37) - Open borders and cultural norms
(0:58:13) - Is Tyler Cowen right about automation?
Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe
Tyler Cowen is an economist, writer, and podcaster. Please support this podcast by checking out our sponsors:
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EPISODE LINKS:
Tyler’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/tylercowen
Tyler’s Blog: https://marginalrevolution.com/
Conversations with Tyler (Podcast): https://conversationswithtyler.com/
Big Business (Book): https://amzn.to/2OBPbaK
Tyler’s Wiki: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyler_Cowen
PODCAST INFO:
Podcast website: https://lexfridman.com/podcast
Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/2lwqZIr
Spotify: https://spoti.fi/2nEwCF8
RSS: https://lexfridman.com/feed/podcast/
YouTube Full Episodes: https://youtube.com/lexfridman
YouTube Clips: https://youtube.com/lexclips
SUPPORT & CONNECT:
– Check out the sponsors above, it’s the best way to support this podcast
– Support on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/lexfridman
– Twitter: https://twitter.com/lexfridman
– Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/lexfridman
– LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lexfridman
– Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/lexfridman
– Medium: https://medium.com/@lexfridman
OUTLINE:
Here’s the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time.
(00:00) – Introduction
(07:24) – Economics
(09:16) – Nuclear war
(16:03) – The American dream
(23:16) – Capitalism: pros and cons
(29:50) – Is competition good for the world?
(31:53) – Free market
(32:57) – Anarchy
(35:23) – Ayn Rand
(40:04) – The case for big business
(44:31) – Clubhouse
(49:35) – Loneliness
(51:47) – Eric Weinstein and economic growth
(56:08) – Communism
(58:58) – Putin
(1:04:29) – China
(1:09:21) – UBI
(1:13:17) – Disagreement with Eric Weinstein
(1:17:09) – Money, Bitcoin, and Ethereum
(1:25:20) – WallStreetBets
(1:29:16) – MIT
(1:36:44) – UFO sightings
(1:44:03) – Contemporary art is misunderstood
(1:51:06) – Mexican food is the best in the world
(1:55:56) – Jiro Dreams of Sushi
(1:59:59) – Book recommendations
(2:02:15) – Advice for young people
(2:05:53) – Love
(2:11:35) – Mortality
(2:13:25) – Meaning of life
Alex Tabarrok is a professor of economics at George Mason University and with Tyler Cowen a founder of the online education platform http://MRU.org.
I ask Alex Tabarrok about the Grand Innovation Prize, the Baumol effect, and Dominant Assurance Contracts.
Watch on YouTube, or listen on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or any other podcast platform.
Episode website here.
Follow Alex on Twitter. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.
Alex Tabarrok's and Tyler Cowen's excellent blog: https://marginalrevolution.com/
Thanks for reading The Lunar Society! Subscribe to find out about future episodes!
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(00:34) - Grand Innovation Prize
(08:45) - Prizes vs grants
(14:10) -Baumol effect
(27:50) - On Bryan Caplan's case against education
(31:35) - Scaling education online
(48:50) - Declining research productivity
(52:15) - Dominant Assurance Contracts
(58:40) - Future of governance
(1:04:05) - On Robin Hanson's Futarchy
(1:06:02) - Beating Adam Smith
(1:08:35) - Our Warfare-Welfare State
(1:19:30) - The Great Stagnation vs The Innovation Renaissance
(1:21:40) - Advice to 20 year olds
Share
Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe
Robin Hanson is a professor of economics at George Mason University. He is the author of The Elephant in the Brain and The Age of Em.
Robin's Twitter: https://twitter.com/robinhanson
Robin's blog: https://www.overcomingbias.com/
Robin's website: http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/home.html
My blog: https://dwarkeshpatel.com/
My Twitter: https://twitter.com/dwarkesh_sp
00:05 The long view
15:07 Subconscious vs conscious intelligence
20:28 Meditators
26:50 Signaling, norms, and motives
36:50 Conversation
42:54 2020 election nominees
49:25 Nerds in startups and social science
54:50 Academia and Robin
58:20 Dominance explains paternalism
1:09:32 Remote work
1:21:26 Advice for 20 yr old
1:28:05 Idea futures
1:32:13 Reforming institutions
Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe
Tyler Cowen is Holbert L. Harris Professor of Economics at George Mason University and also Director of the Mercatus Center.
Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform.
Transcript + Podcast website here.
Follow Tyler Cowen on Twitter. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.
Timestamps
(0:00) - The Great Reset
(2:58) - Growth and the cyclical view of history
(4:00) - Time horizons, growth, and sustainability
(5:30) - Space travel
(8:11) - WMDs and end of humanity
(10:57) - Common sense morality
(12:20) - China and authoritarianism
(13:45) - Are big businesses complacent?
(17:15) - Online education vs university
(20:45) - Aesthetic decline in West Virginia
(23:20) - Advice for young people
(25:18) - Mentors
(27:15) - Identifying talent
(29:50) - Can adults change?
(31:45) - Capacity to change men vs women
(33:10 ) - Are effeminate societies better?
(35:15) - Conservatives and progress
(36:50) - Biggest mistake in history
(39:05) - Nuke in my lifetime
(40:35) - Age and learning
(42:45) - Pessimistic future
(43:50) - Optimistic future
(46:28) - Closing
Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe
Bryan Caplan is a Professor of Economics at George Mason University and a New York Times Bestselling author. His most famous works include: The Myth of the Rational Voter, Selfish Reasons to Have More Kids, The Case Against Education, and Open Borders: The Science and Ethics of Immigration.
I talk to Bryan about open borders, the idea trap, UBI, appeasement, China, the education system, and Bryan Caplan's next two books on poverty and housing regulation.
Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform.
Follow Bryan on Twitter. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.
Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe
with Marc Andreessen (@pmarca), Ben Horowitz (@bhorowitz), and Tyler Cowen (@tylercowen)
Continuing our 10-year anniversary series since the founding of Andreessen Horowitz (aka "a16z"), we’re resurfacing some of our previous episodes featuring Andreessen Horowitz founders Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz.
This episode was actually recorded in 2018 at our annual innovation Summit, and features economist Tyler Cowen interviewing Ben and Marc about everything from their partnership and how it works to talent, tech trends, and software eating culture.
You can find other episodes in this series at a16z.com/10.
Stay Updated:
Find a16z on YouTube: YouTube
Find a16z on X
Find a16z on LinkedIn
Listen to the a16z Show on Spotify
Listen to the a16z Show on Apple Podcasts
Follow our host: https://twitter.com/eriktorenberg
Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.
Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
with Marc Andreessen (@pmarca), Ben Horowitz (@bhorowitz), and Tyler Cowen (@tylercowen)
This episode of the a16z Podcast features the rare combination of a16z co-founders Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz in conversation, together, with economist Tyler Cowen (chair of economics at George Mason University and chairman and general director of the Mercatus Center there, and host of his own podcast.) The conversation originally took place at our most recent annual innovation Summit -- which features a16z speakers and invited experts from various organizations discussing innovation at companies large and small, as well as tech trends spanning bio, consumer, crypto, fintech, and more.
This discussion covers Ben and Marc's marriage, er, partnership; the evolution of VC and "talent as a network"; and where are we right now on industries being affected by tech (such as retail) and tech trends (such as VR/AR and wearables) -- and where are we going next? Finally, is software eating culture... or is it the other way around?
Stay Updated:
Find a16z on YouTube: YouTube
Find a16z on X
Find a16z on LinkedIn
Listen to the a16z Show on Spotify
Listen to the a16z Show on Apple Podcasts
Follow our host: https://twitter.com/eriktorenberg
Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.
Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
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