Tyler Cowen & Alex Tabarrok on AI, Jobs, and Economic Growth
Wyatt Thomson of OpenAI speaks with economists Tyler Cowen and Alex Tabarrok about AI, labor markets, and the future of economic growth.
The conversation explores one of the most common fears surrounding AI: that increasingly capable systems will eliminate jobs. Cowen and Tabarrok argue instead that economic growth remains the key variable. Throughout history, productivity-enhancing technologies have transformed work, created new industries, and expanded living standards, even as they disrupted existing jobs and institutions.
They discuss automation, comparative advantage, inequality, education, healthcare, energy, and the kinds of work that may become more valuable in an AI-driven economy. Along the way, they examine longer-term questions about abundance, ownership, AI agents, and how societies can adapt to rapid technological change.
Resources:
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Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.
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Tyler Cowen on Why AI Hasn't Changed the World Yet
In many respects, AI technology is already mind-blowing, and can perform many tasks far better than the average person. And yet by and large, its impact has been hard to detect. We haven't seen some huge labor displacement, for example. There's nothing dramatic yet happening in the productivity data. So when will the impact really start to be felt? On this episode, we speak with Tyler Cowen, a professor at George Mason University and the co-author of the famed econ blog Marginal Revolution. He's also the host of the Conversations with Tyler podcast. We talk about when we'll really start feeling AIs impact, as well as other topics, like food, music, and the general state of discourse.
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Chris Dixon & Tyler Cowen on Crypto, AI, and Philosophy
In this episode, general partner Chris Dixon joins economist and author Tyler Cowen to explore the themes behind Chris’s book, Read, Write, Own: Building the Next Era of the Internet.
They trace the internet’s evolution from open, decentralized beginnings to today’s consolidated platforms—and ask: how can we build something better? From stablecoins, tokenized payments, and open blockchains to AI's impact on coding, media, and politics, this wide-ranging conversation dives deep into how technologies like crypto and AI could help redistribute power online and reshape the future of ownership and innovation.
The two also debate:
Whether banks and legacy institutions will adopt stablecoins
The long-term role of NFTs and digital property rights
How AI might rewrite venture capital, education, and economic planning
Whether we're heading toward a creative renaissance—or a world of AI-generated monoculture
Listen to similar conversations, listen to web3 with a16z: https://web3-with-a16z.simplecast.com/
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Tyler Cowen — The #1 bottleneck to AI progress is humans
I interviewed Tyler Cowen at the Progress Conference 2024. As always, I had a blast. This is my fourth interview with him – and yet I’m always hearing new stuff.
We talked about why he thinks AI won't drive explosive economic growth, the real bottlenecks on world progress, him now writing for AIs instead of humans, and the difficult relationship between being cultured and fostering growth – among many other things in the full episode.
Thanks to the Roots of Progress Institute (with special thanks to Jason Crawford and Heike Larson) for such a wonderful conference, and to FreeThink for the videography.
Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here.
Sponsors
I’m grateful to Tyler for volunteering to say a few words about Jane Street. It's the first time that a guest has participated in the sponsorship. I hope you can see why Tyler and I think so highly of Jane Street. To learn more about their open rules, go to janestreet.com/dwarkesh.
Timestamps
(00:00:00) Economic Growth and AI
(00:14:57) Founder Mode and increasing variance
(00:29:31) Effective Altruism and Progress Studies
(00:33:05) What AI changes for Tyler
(00:44:57) The slow diffusion of innovation
(00:49:53) Stalin's library
(00:52:19) DC vs SF vs EU
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Tyler Cowen — Hayek, Keynes, & Smith on AI, animal spirits, anarchy, & growth
It was a great pleasure speaking with Tyler Cowen for the 3rd time.
We discussed GOAT: Who is the Greatest Economist of all Time and Why Does it Matter?, especially in the context of how the insights of Hayek, Keynes, Smith, and other great economists help us make sense of AI, growth, animal spirits, prediction markets, alignment, central planning, and much more.
The topics covered in this episode are too many to summarize. Hope you enjoy!
Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.
Timestamps
(0:00:00) - John Maynard Keynes
(00:17:16) - Controversy
(00:25:02) - Fredrick von Hayek
(00:47:41) - John Stuart Mill
(00:52:41) - Adam Smith
(00:58:31) - Coase, Schelling, & George
(01:08:07) - Anarchy
(01:13:16) - Cheap WMDs
(01:23:18) - Technocracy & political philosophy
(01:34:16) - AI & Scaling
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153 - Why Crypto is Underrated with Tyler Cowen
✨ DEBRIEF | Unpacking the Episode: https://shows.banklesshq.com/p/tyler-cowen-debrief
------ Tyler Cowen is an American economist, columnist, and blogger. He’s also a professor at George Mason University, where he also produces the Conversations with Tyler podcast with guests like Vitalik Buterin. Marc Andreessen, and Ray Dalio.
In today’s episode, Tyler shares why he thinks regulators should pause and wait before passing crypto regulation in the wake of FTX, how FTX and Enron are similar, why he calls himself a crypto-hopeful (even though he thinks Balaji’s Network State idea is utterly wrong). And finally, we play Tyler's favorite game—Overrated vs. Underrated—about everything relevant in 2023: Crypto AI, Inflation, America, China, Social Media, Wealth Inequality, and more.
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------ Topics Covered
0:00 Intro 6:10 Tyler’s 2023 Crypto Thoughts 6:50 Why Crypto is Confusing 9:04 Is Crypto Overrated? 10:25 Is Crypto Worth it? 12:19 Regulation 19:33 On-Chain Privacy, Taxes, Surveillance 24:00 FTX vs. Enron 27:35 Wealth Inequality 32:05 Crypto Regulation vs. Innovation 34:48 Can the U.S. Choke Crypto? 36:24 Crypto vs. the Internet 37:56 Whose at Fault for FTX? 40:00 Crypto Self-Regulation 45:16 A.I. Regulation 46:46 A.I.’s SBF Moment? 48:05 Is the Future Closer than it Appears? 50:31 Human Self-Regulation 51:16 Economists & Crypto 53:20 Vitalik 54:16 Free Markets & Greed 55:21 Overrated vs. Underrated 1:00:24 Balaji’s Network State 1:01:47 Banks 1:02:15 Closing & Disclaimers
------ Resources:
Tyler on Twitter https://twitter.com/tylercowen
Tyler’s Blog https://marginalrevolution.com/
Tyler’s Podcast https://conversationswithtyler.com/
Beware the Dangers of Crypto Regulation https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/beware-the-dangers-of-crypto-regulation/2023/01/03/27f6f31a-8b63-11ed-b86a-2e3a77336b8e_story.html
----- Not financial or tax advice. This channel is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. This video is not tax advice. Talk to your accountant. Do your own research.
Disclosure. From time-to-time I may add links in this newsletter to products I use. I may receive commission if you make a purchase through one of these links. Additionally, the Bankless writers hold crypto assets. See our investment disclosures here: https://www.bankless.com/disclosures
Tyler Cowen - Talent, Collapse, & Pessimism of Sex
It was my great pleasure to speak once again to Tyler Cowen. His most recent book is Talent, How to Find Energizers, Creatives, and Winners Across the World.
We discuss:
- how sex is more pessimistic than he is,
- why he expects society to collapse permanently,
- why humility, stimulants, & intelligence are overrated,
- how he identifies talent, deceit, & ambition,
- & much much much more!
Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here.
Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.
You may also enjoy my interviews of Bryan Caplan (about mental illness, discrimination, and poverty), David Deutsch (about AI and the problems with America’s constitution), and Steve Hsu (about intelligence and embryo selection).
Timestamps
(0:00) -Did Caplan Change On Education?
(1:17) - Travel vs. History
(3:10) - Do Institutions Become Left Wing Over Time?
(6:02) - What Does Talent Correlate With?
(13:00) - Humility, Mental Illness, Caffeine, and Suits
(19:20) - How does Education affect Talent?
(24:34) - Scouting Talent
(33:39) - Money, Deceit, and Emergent Ventures
(37:16) - Building Writing Stamina
(39:41) - When Does Intelligence Start to Matter?
(43:51) - Spotting Talent (Counter)signals
(53:30) - Will Reading Cowen’s Book Help You Win Emergent Ventures?
(1:02:15) - Existential risks and the Longterm
(1:10:41) - Cultivating Young Talent
(1:16:58) - The Lifespans of Public Intellectuals
(1:24:36) - Is Stagnation Inevitable?
(1:30:30) - What are Podcasts for?
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Talent Acquisition, the Recession, and Inflation — with Tyler Cowen
Tyler Cowen, an economist and professor at George Mason University, discusses his latest book, “Talent: How to Identify Energizers, Creatives, and Winners Around the World.” Tyler also shares his thoughts on macroeconomic trends including whether the US is heading for a recession and controlling inflation. Follow Tyler on Twitter, @tylercowen.
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Tyler Cowen & Daniel Gross - Identifying Talent - [Invest Like the Best, EP. 277]
My guests today are Tyler Cowen and Daniel Gross. Tyler is an economics professor and creator of one of the most popular economics blogs on the internet. Daniel is the founder of start-up accelerator Pioneer, having previously been a director at Apple and a partner at Y Combinator. Both Daniel and Tyler are prolific talent spotters and that is the focus of our discussion and their new book, which is called Talent. Please enjoy this conversation with Tyler Cowen and Daniel Gross.
For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page here.
-----
This episode is brought to you by Canalyst. Canalyst is the leading destination for public company data and analysis. If you're a professional equity investor and haven't talked to Canalyst recently, you should give them a shout. Learn more and try Canalyst for yourself at canalyst.com/Patrick.
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This episode is brought to you by Brex. Brex is the integrated financial platform trusted by the world's most innovative entrepreneurs and fastest-growing companies. With Brex, you can move money fast for instant impact with high-limit corporate cards, payments, venture debt, and spend management software all in one place. Ready to accelerate your business? Learn more at brex.com/best.
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Invest Like the Best is a property of Colossus, LLC. For more episodes of Invest Like the Best, visit joincolossus.com/episodes.
Past guests include Tobi Lutke, Kevin Systrom, Mike Krieger, John Collison, Kat Cole, Marc Andreessen, Matthew Ball, Bill Gurley, Anu Hariharan, Ben Thompson, and many more.
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Follow us on Twitter: @patrick_oshag | @JoinColossus
Show Notes
[00:02:38] - [First question] - Defining what talent is to them writ large
[00:03:34] - The differences between means and ends in regards to talent
[00:04:14] - What the Diet Coke idea is and why it’s relevant
[00:06:32] - Types of energy that are valuable and the subtle differences between them
[00:07:40] - Thoughts on using a moneyball-like approach to acquiring and evaluating talent
[00:11:49] - The talent market and thinking about pricing talent specifically
[00:13:14] - What is seemingly overpriced in today’s talent landscape
[00:15:50] - Relationship between experience and/or age when it comes to talent
[00:20:34] - Lessons about the utility of intelligence and where they’ve lead them wrong
[00:23:35] - What’s beneath being an outsider and why it’s important
[00:24:46] - Why what people do in their downtime is worth considering
[00:31:41] - Things to try and get out of a reference call as an objective
[00:32:40] - Disabilities and what lead them write that chapter specifically
[00:35:01] - Whether or not talented people are happier
[00:38:40] - Lack of contentment and it’s dynamic influence over individuals
[00:41:01] - Where they think the other is most talented
[00:43:33] - Thinking about the physical side of mental performance
[00:45:49] - What was frustrating about writing the book
[00:48:25] - How they evaluate talent most differently now after having finished the book
[00:50:41] - What makes for a good bat signal and how to cast one well
[00:53:27] - Personality inventories and what they would and wouldn’t recommend
[00:54:15] - Geographical frictions and their role in high success rates
[00:56:08] - Antonio Gracias; Existing supply constraints on talent development
[01:00:01] - How they would redesign the current attractors of talent that we rely on today
[01:01:18] - Assembly line development and how we can improve and scale talent filters
[01:02:29] - The biggest open questions for talent today writ large
[01:05:16] - The kindest thing anyone has ever done for Tyler
#174 – Tyler Cowen: Economic Growth and the Fight Against Conformity and Mediocrity
Tyler Cowen is an economist, writer, and podcaster. Please support this podcast by checking out our sponsors:
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OUTLINE:
Here’s the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time.
(00:00) – Introduction
(07:24) – Economics
(09:16) – Nuclear war
(16:03) – The American dream
(23:16) – Capitalism: pros and cons
(29:50) – Is competition good for the world?
(31:53) – Free market
(32:57) – Anarchy
(35:23) – Ayn Rand
(40:04) – The case for big business
(44:31) – Clubhouse
(49:35) – Loneliness
(51:47) – Eric Weinstein and economic growth
(56:08) – Communism
(58:58) – Putin
(1:04:29) – China
(1:09:21) – UBI
(1:13:17) – Disagreement with Eric Weinstein
(1:17:09) – Money, Bitcoin, and Ethereum
(1:25:20) – WallStreetBets
(1:29:16) – MIT
(1:36:44) – UFO sightings
(1:44:03) – Contemporary art is misunderstood
(1:51:06) – Mexican food is the best in the world
(1:55:56) – Jiro Dreams of Sushi
(1:59:59) – Book recommendations
(2:02:15) – Advice for young people
(2:05:53) – Love
(2:11:35) – Mortality
(2:13:25) – Meaning of life
Tyler Cowen - The Great Reset
Tyler Cowen is Holbert L. Harris Professor of Economics at George Mason University and also Director of the Mercatus Center.
Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform.
Transcript + Podcast website here.
Follow Tyler Cowen on Twitter. Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.
Timestamps
(0:00) - The Great Reset
(2:58) - Growth and the cyclical view of history
(4:00) - Time horizons, growth, and sustainability
(5:30) - Space travel
(8:11) - WMDs and end of humanity
(10:57) - Common sense morality
(12:20) - China and authoritarianism
(13:45) - Are big businesses complacent?
(17:15) - Online education vs university
(20:45) - Aesthetic decline in West Virginia
(23:20) - Advice for young people
(25:18) - Mentors
(27:15) - Identifying talent
(29:50) - Can adults change?
(31:45) - Capacity to change men vs women
(33:10 ) - Are effeminate societies better?
(35:15) - Conservatives and progress
(36:50) - Biggest mistake in history
(39:05) - Nuke in my lifetime
(40:35) - Age and learning
(42:45) - Pessimistic future
(43:50) - Optimistic future
(46:28) - Closing
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a16z Podcast: Beyond Software, to Talent and Culture
with Marc Andreessen (@pmarca), Ben Horowitz (@bhorowitz), and Tyler Cowen (@tylercowen)
Continuing our 10-year anniversary series since the founding of Andreessen Horowitz (aka "a16z"), we’re resurfacing some of our previous episodes featuring Andreessen Horowitz founders Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz.
This episode was actually recorded in 2018 at our annual innovation Summit, and features economist Tyler Cowen interviewing Ben and Marc about everything from their partnership and how it works to talent, tech trends, and software eating culture.
You can find other episodes in this series at a16z.com/10.
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Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.
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a16z Podcast: Talent, Tech Trends, and Culture -- with Ben, Marc, and Tyler Cowen
with Marc Andreessen (@pmarca), Ben Horowitz (@bhorowitz), and Tyler Cowen (@tylercowen)
This episode of the a16z Podcast features the rare combination of a16z co-founders Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz in conversation, together, with economist Tyler Cowen (chair of economics at George Mason University and chairman and general director of the Mercatus Center there, and host of his own podcast.) The conversation originally took place at our most recent annual innovation Summit -- which features a16z speakers and invited experts from various organizations discussing innovation at companies large and small, as well as tech trends spanning bio, consumer, crypto, fintech, and more.
This discussion covers Ben and Marc's marriage, er, partnership; the evolution of VC and "talent as a network"; and where are we right now on industries being affected by tech (such as retail) and tech trends (such as VR/AR and wearables) -- and where are we going next? Finally, is software eating culture... or is it the other way around?
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Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.
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a16z Podcast: Technology, Mobility, and the American Dream
The irony of our systems working so well -- technological, corporate, and yes, even political -- is that we've become too comfortable: matching to others just like us, producing less, taking fewer risks. But isn't the very point of technology to make our lives more comfortable? Yes... until "we" -- whether an entire class, generation, ethnic group, or country like the U.S. -- become a little too complacent. Or so argues Tyler Cowen in his new book, The Complacent Class: The Self-Defeating Quest for the American Dream.
We've even outsourced our mobility to immigrants, observes Cowen (who is also a prolific economics blogger, columnist, and professor at George Mason University and director of the Mercatus Center there). Which is great... until you realize we're also giving up so much of that dynamism ourselves. This complacency affects everything from how economies to corporations to individuals grow, and we discuss how in this episode of the a16z Podcast (with Alex Rampell and Sonal Chokshi).
"The general problem is that 'veto points' build up in a lot of systems as they grow larger and more bureaucratic." That's why we have NIMBYism (and a bunch of other such -isms). Corporate cash becomes the new stagnant pool (watch out for those mosquitos!). The stability of real estate becomes a trap. Social media (and even some protest) becomes signaling vs. actually doing something. As for culture: Who defines it? And is it time to bring back the individual quest?
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Maker Stories: Episode 25 w/ Tyler Cowen
Tyler Cowen and I discuss why he thinks Elon Musk is overrated, religion is underrated, happiness overrated, and much more. Tyler Cowen is one of my favorite economists and bloggers - check out his blog here: http://marginalrevolution.com
