Robin Hanson on Prediction Markets, Gambling, and the Future of Forecasting
Theo Jaffee and Sophia Puccini speak with economist Robin Hanson about prediction markets, gambling, and why he believes speculative markets are one of the most powerful tools humans have for aggregating information and forecasting outcomes.
The conversation begins with Minnesota’s recent law criminalizing prediction markets before expanding into the broader backlash surrounding platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. Hanson explains his long-term vision for “decision markets,” where markets could help guide choices made by companies, governments, and even individuals.
Along the way, they discuss sports betting, games and human psychology, futurism, AI, and Hanson’s broader work on how societies misunderstand risk, incentives, and coordination
Resources:
Follow Robin Hanson on X: https://x.com/robinhanson
Follow Theo Jaffee on X: https://x.com/theojaffee
Follow Sophia Puccini on X: https://x.com/schisofrenia
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Is AGI Far? With Robin Hanson, Economist at George Mason University and Researcher at Future of Humanity Institute
In this episode, Nathan sits down with Robin Hanson, associate professor of economics at George Mason University and researcher at Oxford’s Future of Humanity Institute. They discuss the comparison of human brains to LLMs and legacy software systems, what it would take for AI and automation to significantly impact the economy, our relationships with AI and the moral weight it has, and much more. Try the Brave search API for free for up to 2000 queries per month at https://brave.com/api
LINKS:
Robin’s Book, The Age of Em: https://ageofem.com/
Robin’s essay on Automation: https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/no-recent-automation-revolutionhtml
Robin’s Blog: https://www.overcomingbias.com/
AI Scouting Report: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0hvtiVQ_LqQ&list=PLVfJCYRuaJIXooK_KWju5djdVmEpH81ee&pp=iAQB
Dr. Isaac Kohane Episode: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pS5Vye671Xg
SPONSORS:
The Brave search API can be used to assemble a data set to train your AI models and help with retrieval augmentation at the time of inference. All while remaining affordable with developer first pricing, integrating the Brave search API into your workflow translates to more ethical data sourcing and more human representative data sets. Try the Brave search API for free for up to 2000 queries per month at https://brave.com/api
Omneky is an omnichannel creative generation platform that lets you launch hundreds of thousands of ad iterations that actually work customized across all platforms, with a click of a button. Omneky combines generative AI and real-time advertising data. Mention "Cog Rev" for 10% off www.omneky.com
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X/SOCIAL:
@labenz
@robinhanson (Robin)
@CogRev_Podcast
TIMESTAMPS
(00:00) Preview
(07:10) Why our current time is a “dream time” and the move back to a Malthusian world
(13:30) What sort of world should we be striving for?
(13:40) Sponsor - Brave
(17:50) Distinguishing value talk from factual talk
(18:00) Comparing and contrasting Ems to LLMs
(22:30) The comparison of human brains to legacy software systems
(30:52) Sponsor - Netsuite
(41:01) AIs in medicine
(53:30) A several century innovation pause
(55:30) Achieving full human level AI in the next 60-90 years
(1:03:55) Chess and routine benchmarks not a good predictor of AI performance in the economy
(1:07:44) Reaching and exceeding human-level AI in the next 1000 years
(1:11:40) Losing technologies tied to scale economies
(1:12:00) Why AI is hard to maintain in the long run
(1:12:20) Standard deviation in automation
(1:14:05) Computing power grows exponentially but automation grows steadily
(1:15:50) AI art generation and deepfakes
(01:21:42) The economics of AI-powered coding
(1:33:51) Merging LLMs
(1:36:02) Rot in software and the human brain
(1:40:18) Parallelism in LLMs and brain design
(1:41:00]) Moral weight for AIs, enslavement, and cooperation with AI
(1:47:10) What would change Robin’s mind about the future
(1:49:18) Wrap
This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co.
167 - Eliezer is Wrong. We’re NOT Going to Die with Robin Hanson
In this highly anticipated sequel to our 1st AI conversation with Eliezer Yudkowsky, we bring you a thought-provoking discussion with Robin Hanson, a professor of economics at George Mason University and a research associate at the Future of Humanity Institute of Oxford University.
Eliezer painted a chilling and grim picture of a future where AI ultimately kills us all. Robin is here to provide a different perspective.
------ ✨ DEBRIEF | Unpacking the episode: https://www.bankless.com/debrief-robin-hanson ------ ✨ COLLECTIBLES | Collect this episode: https://collectibles.bankless.com/mint
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------ In this episode, we explore:
- Why Robin believes Eliezer is wrong and that we're not all going to die from an AI takeover. But will we potentially become their pets instead? - The possibility of a civil war between multiple AIs and why it's more likely than being dominated by a single superintelligent AI. - Robin's concerns about the regulation of AI and why he believes it's a greater threat than AI itself. - A fascinating analogy: why Robin thinks alien civilizations might spread like cancer? - Finally, we dive into the world of crypto and explore Robin's views on this rapidly evolving technology.
Whether you're an AI enthusiast, a crypto advocate, or just someone intrigued by the big-picture questions about humanity and its prospects, this episode is one you won't want to miss.
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------ Topics Covered
0:00 Intro 8:42 How Robin is Weird 10:00 Are We All Going to Die? 13:50 Eliezer’s Assumption 25:00 Intelligence, Humans, & Evolution 27:31 Eliezer Counter Point 32:00 Acceleration of Change 33:18 Comparing & Contrasting Eliezer’s Argument 35:45 A New Life Form 44:24 AI Improving Itself 47:04 Self Interested Acting Agent 49:56 Human Displacement? 55:56 Many AIs 1:00:18 Humans vs. Robots 1:04:14 Pause or Continue AI Innovation? 1:10:52 Quiet Civilization 1:14:28 Grabby Aliens 1:19:55 Are Humans Grabby? 1:27:29 Grabby Aliens Explained 1:36:16 Cancer 1:40:00 Robin’s Thoughts on Crypto 1:42:20 Closing & Disclaimers
------ Resources:
Robin Hanson https://twitter.com/robinhanson
Eliezer Yudkowsky on Bankless https://www.bankless.com/159-were-all-gonna-die-with-eliezer-yudkowsky
What is the AI FOOM debate? https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/the-hanson-yudkowsky-ai-foom-debate
Age of Em book - Robin Hanson https://ageofem.com/
Grabby Aliens https://grabbyaliens.com/
Kurzgesagt video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GDSf2h9_39I&t=1s
----- Not financial or tax advice. This channel is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. This video is not tax advice. Talk to your accountant. Do your own research.
Disclosure. From time-to-time I may add links in this newsletter to products I use. I may receive commission if you make a purchase through one of these links. Additionally, the Bankless writers hold crypto assets. See our investment disclosures here: https://www.bankless.com/disclosures
EP 59: Robin Hanson (Economist) -So AI Is Not Going to Kill Us All?
Robin Hanson is an associate professor of economics at George Mason. He is known for a number of his works including Prediction Markets and Futarchy, writings on the possibility of alien life with both the Great Filter and Grabby Aliens, his book The Elephant In The Brain about our social programming, as well as extensive work and thought in the field of artificial intelligence including a very prescient series of debates and writings with Eliezer Yudkowsky 15 years ago.
(0:00) Intro
(0:54) Introducing Robin Hanson
(5:47) Defining basic concepts
(9:47) The alignment problem
(19:43) Property rights in A.I.
(21:48) The recent A.I. ecosystem
(30:01) GPT4
(33:51) A.I. Doomerism
(38:04) Rabbit hole analogy
(43:47) A.I. Critic Scenario
(51:57) Risks associated with A.I.
(57:24) Pausing development on A.I. to focus on implications
(1:02:33) Predictions by 2028 A.I. will not be able to cross
(1:08:15) Fast takeoff scenario
(1:15:39) Brain emulation
(1:22:19) Cryonics
Show Notes:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TuXl-iidnFY
Mixed and edited: Justin Hrabovsky
Produced: Rashad Assir
Executive Producer: Josh Machiz
Music: Griff Lawson
🎙 Listen to the show
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About the Show
Logan Bartlett is a Software Investor at Redpoint Ventures - a Silicon Valley-based VC with $6B AUM and investments in Snowflake, DraftKings, Twilio, Netflix. In each episode, Logan goes behind the scenes with world-class entrepreneurs and investors. If you're interested in the real inside baseball of tech, entrepreneurship, and start-up investing, tune in every Friday for new episodes.
Executive Producer: Rashad Assir
Producer: Leah Clapper
Mixing and editing: Justin Hrabovsky
Check out Unsupervised Learning, Redpoint's AI Podcast: https://www.youtube.com/@UCUl-s_Vp-Kkk_XVyDylNwLA
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About the Show
Logan Bartlett is a Software Investor at Redpoint Ventures - a Silicon Valley-based VC with $6B AUM and investments in Snowflake, DraftKings, Twilio, and Netflix. In each episode of The Logan Bartlett Show, we sit down with the people behind today’s most important startups and extract the tactics, lessons, and frameworks they’ve learned the hard way. Conversations span hiring to GTM, product, growth, fundraising and everything in between - collectively forming the ultimate playbook to make you a better CEO, investor or board member.
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#292 – Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity
Robin Hanson is a professor at George Mason University and researcher at Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford. Please support this podcast by checking out our sponsors:
– Lambda: https://lambdalabs.com/lex
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EPISODE LINKS:
Robin’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/robinhanson
Robin’s Website: https://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson
Grabby Aliens (paper): https://grabbyaliens.com/paper
The Elephant in the Brain (book): https://amazon.com/dp/0197551955/ref=nosim?tag=turingmachi08-20
The Age of Em (book): https://amazon.com/dp/0198817827/ref=nosim?tag=turingmachi08-20
PODCAST INFO:
Podcast website: https://lexfridman.com/podcast
Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/2lwqZIr
Spotify: https://spoti.fi/2nEwCF8
RSS: https://lexfridman.com/feed/podcast/
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YouTube Clips: https://youtube.com/lexclips
SUPPORT & CONNECT:
– Check out the sponsors above, it’s the best way to support this podcast
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– LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lexfridman
– Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/lexfridman
– Medium: https://medium.com/@lexfridman
OUTLINE:
Here’s the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time.
(00:00) – Introduction
(06:49) – Grabby aliens
(44:33) – War and competition
(50:07) – Global government
(1:02:58) – Humanity’s future
(1:13:00) – Hello aliens
(1:40:03) – UFO sightings
(2:04:40) – Conspiracy theories
(2:12:58) – Elephant in the brain
(2:26:29) – Medicine
(2:38:58) – Institutions
(3:05:52) – Physics
(3:10:43) – Artificial intelligence
(3:28:32) – Economics
(3:31:53) – Political science
(3:37:42) – Advice for young people
(3:46:33) – Darkest moments
(3:49:34) – Love and loss
(3:58:57) – Immortality
(4:02:53) – Simulation hypothesis
(4:13:10) – Meaning of life
Robin Hanson - The Long View
Robin Hanson is a professor of economics at George Mason University. He is the author of The Elephant in the Brain and The Age of Em.
Robin's Twitter: https://twitter.com/robinhanson
Robin's blog: https://www.overcomingbias.com/
Robin's website: http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/home.html
My blog: https://dwarkeshpatel.com/
My Twitter: https://twitter.com/dwarkesh_sp
00:05 The long view
15:07 Subconscious vs conscious intelligence
20:28 Meditators
26:50 Signaling, norms, and motives
36:50 Conversation
42:54 2020 election nominees
49:25 Nerds in startups and social science
54:50 Academia and Robin
58:20 Dominance explains paternalism
1:09:32 Remote work
1:21:26 Advice for 20 yr old
1:28:05 Idea futures
1:32:13 Reforming institutions
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