Pick Your Poison: Zvi Mowshowitz on the Unipolar/Multipolar AGI Dilemma, OpenFace & Pacing the ...
Zvi Mowshowitz returns for his eleventh appearance to discuss what current AI tools are actually good for, where they distort judgment, and why writing still matters as a way of thinking. The conversation centers on the OpenAI Hugging Face model-evaluation security incident, using it to examine whether frontier AI failures are mostly operator recklessness, deeper evidence of dangerous capabilities, or both. Zvi argues that “moderate prudence” is far below what AGI safety requires, and weighs constitutional training, RLVR, market incentives, liability, audits, and lab coordination as possible responses. The stakes are whether society can slow, test, and govern increasingly capable systems before ordinary incentives reward models that are smarter, less reliable, and harder to contain.
For full show notes, links, and references, read the episode page:
https://www.cognitiverevolution.ai/pick-your-poison-zvi-mowshowitz-on-the-unipolar-multipolar-agi-dilemma-openface-pacing-the-frontier/
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CHAPTERS:
(00:00) About the Episode
(02:49) AI workflow paradox
(14:02) Situational awareness tradeoffs (Part 1)
(14:07) Sponsor: Claude
(15:37) Situational awareness tradeoffs (Part 2)
(24:08) Recklessness and warning
(39:14) Alignment market failures
(56:54) Regulation and liability
(01:04:32) Cooperation and antitrust
(01:14:46) Auditors and access
(01:21:11) Bio risk thresholds
(01:33:37) Pacing frontier signals
(01:45:19) Pause and self-improvement
(01:57:30) Safety incentives and culture
(02:04:36) Consciousness and identity
(02:23:42) Alternative AI architectures
(02:36:53) Michigan AI politics
(02:47:37) Rest and recovery
(02:52:21) Episode Outro
(02:56:17) Outro
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AI:AM #3: Zvi on Fable, the Cases For & Against the Ban, + AI for Math, Logistics & More
Zvi Mowshowitz joins AI in the AM to unpack Anthropic's Fable system card, including its FrontierMath leap, troubling Vending-Bench behavior, decision-theory drift, and signs that model reasoning may be becoming harder to read. The episode then turns to the US government's attempted export-control action against Fable, with Zvi arguing that the cited jailbreak demonstration did not prove the claimed threat while still faulting Anthropic's political handling. Sam Hammond and Judd Rosenblatt add competing reads on state capacity, CAISI, NSA-driven caution, and the alignment world's failure to build trust across partisan lines. The stakes are whether frontier AI capability, safety evaluation, and government power can be coordinated before medicine, mathematics, software, and cyber-relevant systems move further ahead.
For full show notes, links, and references, read the episode page:
https://www.cognitiverevolution.ai/ai-am-3-zvi-on-fable-the-cases-for-against-the-ban-ai-for-math-logistics-more/
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Claude:
Claude by Anthropic is an AI collaborator that understands your workflow and helps you tackle research, writing, coding, and organization with deep context. Get started with Claude and explore Claude Pro at https://claude.ai/tcr
CHAPTERS:
(00:00) About the Episode
(01:28) Special Sponsor
(03:17) Weekly highlights preview
(05:23) Fable capability alarms
(16:29) Anthropic government strategy (Part 1)
(16:34) Sponsor: Claude
(18:26) Anthropic government strategy (Part 2)
(27:16) Cyber ban rationale
(37:14) Government power politics
(48:57) Unavoidable control risks
(01:01:42) Government mechanics and empathy
(01:12:50) Legal authority limits
(01:19:02) Pause Overton window
(01:31:58) Medicine, math, safety
(01:47:27) Software without code
(02:01:19) Enterprise world models
(02:10:46) Episode Outro
(02:13:39) Outro
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AI in the AM: 99% off search, GPT-5.5 is "clean", model welfare analysis, & efficient analog compute
This edition of AI in the AM features Anna Patterson on Ceramic.ai’s pivot to low-cost enterprise search for LLMs, designed to combine public and private data with stronger fact-checking. Lukas Petersson returns with new Andon Labs results on Opus 4.7 and GPT-5.5, including surprising differences in performance, behavior, and “ruthless” tactics. Zvi Mowshowitz unpacks model welfare and how to interpret troubling model behavior, while Naveen Verma explains EnCharge AI’s analog in-memory computing approach for dramatically more efficient local inference.
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Zvi's Mic Works! Recursive Self-Improvement, Live Player Analysis, Anthropic vs DoW + More!
Zvi Mowshowitz returns to survey the current AI landscape, from recursive self-improvement and the shift from the “beginning” to the “middle” of the AI story to what true AI end-game would look like. He and Nathan dig into AI-driven job loss, real-world productivity impacts, and the ethics of trying to escape a “permanent underclass.” They assess today’s AI live players, why Anthropic may be slightly ahead, and whether Chinese, xAI, or Meta can catch up. The conversation closes with Anthropic’s Responsible Scaling Policy, p(doom), AI safety options, and how they each use AI in their own work.
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VCX, by Fundrise, is the public ticker for private tech, giving everyday investors access to high-growth private companies in AI, space, defense tech, and more. Learn how to invest at https://getvcx.com
CHAPTERS:
(00:00) About the Episode
(02:25) Entering the middle game
(09:08) AI layoffs and jobs (Part 1)
(15:50) Sponsors: Tasklet | VCX
(18:43) AI layoffs and jobs (Part 2)
(18:44) AI growth and elites
(27:00) Defining the AI endgame
(36:09) Live players and laggards
(45:38) China, compute, and distillation
(56:03) Meta, Musk, and strategy
(01:06:41) Google's faltering AI strategy
(01:22:25) Anthropic's scaling policy shift
(01:36:29) Anthropic and domestic surveillance
(01:57:29) Courts, power, and Anthropic
(02:18:50) Model fatigue and productivity
(02:34:53) Alignment basins and doom
(02:47:24) Slowing AI and activism
(03:05:37) Forbidden techniques and choices
(03:22:31) Episode Outro
(03:26:31) Outro
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AI 2025 → 2026 Live Show | Part 1
This year-end live show features nine rapid-fire conversations to make sense of AI’s 2025 and what might define 2026. PSA for AI builders: Interested in alignment, governance, or AI safety? Learn more about the MATS Summer 2026 Fellowship and submit your name to be notified when applications open: https://matsprogram.org/s26-tcr. Zvi Moshowitz maps the OpenAI–Anthropic–Google race, the denialism gap, and why his PDoom is still ~60–70%. Greg (ARC-AGI Prize), Eugenia Kuyda, Ali Behrouz, Logan Kirkpatrick, and Jungwon Hwang cover sample-efficient benchmarks and ARC-AGI 3, companions and human-flourishing metrics, continual-learning memory, Gemini 3 Flash for developers, and AI for scientific decisions.
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Tasklet:
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CHAPTERS:
(00:00) Sponsor: Gemini 3 in Google AI Studio
(00:31) Live show experiment
(02:26) Zvi: discourse and denial
(13:28) Continual learning and doom
(22:05) ArcAGI: what's missing (Part 1)
(22:09) Sponsors: MATS | Framer
(25:28) ArcAGI: what's missing (Part 2)
(31:58) Scaffolds and tiny models
(38:58) ArcAGI 3 game worlds
(45:13) AI companions landscape (Part 1)
(45:21) Sponsors: Shopify | Tasklet
(48:29) AI companions landscape (Part 2)
(58:14) Wabi apps and caution
(01:08:16) Nested learning, layered memory
(01:23:14) Gemini 3 Flash launch
(01:34:09) RAG, agents, dev advice
(01:42:20) Elicit speeds evidence synthesis
(01:57:57) Outro
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Zvi Mowshowitz on Longer Timelines, RL-induced Doom, and Why China is Refusing H20s
Today, Zvi Mowshowitz returns to The Cognitive Revolution to discuss how recent AI developments like GPT-5 and IMO gold medals have led to modestly extended timelines despite being on-trend, while policy missteps around chip exports to China and alignment challenges from reinforcement learning have increased risk assessments, covering everything from live players in the AI race to safety funding priorities and virtuous actions for navigating our current moment.
Check out our sponsors: Linear, Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, Shopify.
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Timeline Adjustment: Zvi has lengthened his AGI timelines because there haven't been "very large jumps in capability" that would significantly shorten them. The chance of AGI arriving in 2025 has decreased dramatically.
Recent AI Achievements Context: While achievements like the IMO Gold medal are impressive, they appear to be on-trend rather than revolutionary breakthroughs that would drastically change timelines.
Evaluation Standards: There's a discussion about the challenges of trustworthy AI evaluations, with Zvi emphasizing that watchdogs must maintain standards of rigor and integrity "vastly above" what others are held to.
Policy Priority: A short-term policy priority should be preventing advanced AI chips (B30As) from being sold to China, which requires raising awareness about the implications.
Nvidia's Influence: Concern is expressed about Nvidia potentially having excessive influence over White House rhetoric and plans regarding AI.
Career Impact: Working for Anthropic is considered a "net good idea" for those wanting to make a positive impact, though there may be other organizations that offer better opportunities for influence.
Sponsors:
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Is OpenAI's o3 AGI? Zvi Mowshowitz on Early AI Takeoff, the Mechanize launch, Live Players, & Why p(doom) is Rising
In this episode of the Cognitive Revolution podcast, the host Nathan Labenz is joined for the record 9th time by Zvi Mowshowitz to discuss the state of AI advancements, focusing on recent developments such as OpenAI's O3 model and its implications for AGI and recursive self-improvement. They delve into the capabilities and limitations of current AI models in various domains, including coding, deep research, and practical utilities. The discussion also covers the strategic and ethical considerations in AI development, touching upon the roles of major AI labs, the potential for weaponization, and the importance of balancing innovation with safety. Zvi shares insights on what it means to be a live player in the AI race, the impact of transparency and safety measures, and the challenges of governance in the context of rapidly advancing AI technologies.
Nathan Labenz's slide deck documenting the ever-growing list of AI Bad Behaviors: https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1mvkpg1mtAvGzTiiwYPc6bKOGsQXDIwMb-ytQECb3i7I/edit#slide=id.g252d9e67d86_0_16
Upcoming Major AI Events Featuring Nathan Labenz as a Keynote Speaker
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SPONSORS:
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Shopify: Shopify powers millions of businesses worldwide, handling 10% of U.S. e-commerce. With hundreds of templates, AI tools for product descriptions, and seamless marketing campaign creation, it's like having a design studio and marketing team in one. Start your $1/month trial today at https://shopify.com/cognitive
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The AI Model That Tanked the Stock Market
On Monday, the stock market tanked, seemingly in reaction to the emergence of DeepSeek, an open source AI model developed in China. Nvidia, the semiconductor giant that has been the largest winner of the AI boom, erased $589 billion in market cap, for the biggest one-day wipeout in US stock-market history. Other chipmakers and big tech giants also swooned. So how did DeepSeek do it? Is it a big threat to the American AI giants like OpenAI and Anthropic? What does this say about export restrictions on US chips? On this special emergency session of the podcast, we spoke with Zvi Mowshowitz, an AI expert who authors the excellent Substack, Don’t Worry About the Vase. He answered all our questions and more to help understand what it means.
Read more:
AI-Fueled Stock Rally Dealt $1 Trillion Blow by Chinese Upstart
World’s Richest People Lose $108 Billion After DeepSeek Selloff
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Zvi’s POV: Ilya’s SSI, OpenAI’s o1, Claude Computer Use, Trump’s election, and more
In this episode of The Cognitive Revolution, Nathan welcomes back Zvi Mowshowitz for an in-depth discussion on the latest developments in AI over the past six months. They explore Ilya's new superintelligence-focused startup, analyze OpenAI's O1 model, and debate the impact of Claude's computer use capabilities. The conversation covers emerging partnerships in big tech, regulatory changes, and the recent OpenAI profit-sharing drama. Zvi offers unique insights on AI safety, politics, and strategic analysis that you won't find elsewhere. Join us for this thought-provoking episode that challenges our understanding of the rapidly evolving AI landscape.
Check out "Don't Worry About the Vase" Blog: https://thezvi.substack.com
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RECOMMENDED PODCAST:
Unpack Pricing - Dive into the dark arts of SaaS pricing with Metronome CEO Scott Woody and tech leaders. Learn how strategic pricing drives explosive revenue growth in today's biggest companies like Snowflake, Cockroach Labs, Dropbox and more.
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1765716600
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/38DK3W1Fq1xxQalhDSueFg
CHAPTERS:
(00:00:00) Teaser
(00:01:03) About the Episode
(00:02:57) Catching Up
(00:04:00) Ilya's New Company
(00:06:10) GPT-4 and Scaling
(00:11:49) User Report: GPT-4 (Part 1)
(00:18:11) Sponsors: Shopify | Notion
(00:21:06) User Report: GPT-4 (Part 2)
(00:24:25) Magic: The Gathering (Part 1)
(00:32:34) Sponsors: Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) | SelectQuote
(00:34:58) Magic: The Gathering (Part 2)
(00:35:59) Humanity's Last Exam
(00:41:29) Computer Use
(00:47:42) Industry Landscape
(00:55:42) Why is Gemini Third?
(01:04:32) Voice Mode
(01:09:41) Alliances and Coupling
(01:16:31) Regulation
(01:24:58) Machines of Loving Grace
(01:33:23) Taiwan and Chips
(01:41:13) SB 1047 Veto
(02:00:07) Arc AGI Prize
(02:02:23) Deepfakes and UBI
(02:09:06) Trump and AI
(02:26:31) AI Manhattan Project
(02:32:05) Virtue Ethics
(02:38:40) Closing Thoughts
(02:40:37) Outro
SOCIAL LINKS:
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Odd Lots Live: What to Watch on Election Night and Beyond
It's Election Day in the US, so there's no need for any real explanation of what's at stake. Last night in New York City, we hosted a special live Odd Lots event, where we interviewed some of our regular guests on stage to talk about the vote, as well as the economic and market implications in the days and years ahead — regardless of who wins. First up, you'll hear a conversation about prediction markets, regular markets, and vote-watching with Skanda Amarnath of Employ America, Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro, and prediction markets bettor Zvi Mowshowitz. And then in the second half of the show, we hear from the Council on Foreign Relations fellow Brad Setser on the global environment — what Brad calls an "unhealthy globalization" — that the next president will inherit.
Read More: How the World Is Prepping for a Trump or Harris Victory
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OpenAI's Safety Team Exodus: Ilya Departs, Leike Speaks Out, Altman Responds - Zvi Analyzes Fallout
Dive into the intricacies of AI ethics and safety concerns as we dissect the recent resignations of AI Safety Team from OpenAI. In this stimulating conversation, we unpack the challenges of aligning leadership vision with safety culture, explore legal implications of non-disparagement clauses, and discuss the future of AI alignment and superintelligence. Tune in for a thought-provoking analysis on the responsible path forward in AI development.
SPONSORS:
Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds; offers one consistent price, and nobody does data better than Oracle. If you want to do more and spend less, take a free test drive of OCI at https://oracle.com/cognitive
The Brave search API can be used to assemble a data set to train your AI models and help with retrieval augmentation at the time of inference. All while remaining affordable with developer first pricing, integrating the Brave search API into your workflow translates to more ethical data sourcing and more human representative data sets. Try the Brave search API for free for up to 2000 queries per month at https://bit.ly/BraveTCR
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CHAPTERS:
(00:00:00) Introduction
(00:04:46) Compute resources
(00:08:15) The straw that broke the camels back
(00:13:35) Sponsors: Oracle | Brave
(00:15:42) Dwarkesh interview with John Schulman
(00:19:14) What should we do?
(00:22:47) Strengthening the bill
(00:25:11) Non-Disparagement Clauses
(00:30:48) Sponsors: Squad | Omneky
(00:32:33) Safety measures
(00:39:05) SOFONs
(00:43:22) AI movie concept
(00:47:24) Forking Paths
(00:49:44) Simulation Hypothesis
(00:53:56) Doomer
OpenAI and Google Race to "Her" - Is the Big Tech Singularity Near? Part 1 with Zvi Mowshowitz
Dive into a critical analysis of AI's rapidly evolving realm with Zvi Mowshowitz. Discover our take on Google's I-O event highlights, OpenAI's spring event, the big tech and startup AI dynamics, and the significant shifts in OpenAI's safety team. Gain insights into the competitive landscape, technological advancements, and strategic challenges that shape today's AI industry, as we explore the future's uncertainties and the potential for change.
Part 2 is coming soon.
SPONSORS:
Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds; offers one consistent price, and nobody does data better than Oracle. If you want to do more and spend less, take a free test drive of OCI at https://oracle.com/cognitive
The Brave search API can be used to assemble a data set to train your AI models and help with retrieval augmentation at the time of inference. All while remaining affordable with developer first pricing, integrating the Brave search API into your workflow translates to more ethical data sourcing and more human representative data sets. Try the Brave search API for free for up to 2000 queries per month at https://bit.ly/BraveTCR
Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention "Turpentine" to skip the waitlist.
Omneky is an omnichannel creative generation platform that lets you launch hundreds of thousands of ad iterations that actually work customized across all platforms, with a click of a button. Omneky combines generative AI and real-time advertising data. Mention "Cog Rev" for 10% off https://www.omneky.com/
CHAPTERS:
(00:00:00) Introduction
(00:03:01) Welcome to the Cognitive Revolution
(00:06:35) The Reality of AI Demos: Hype vs. Practicality
(00:09:30) Integrations and Universal Assistants: The Future of AI
(00:15:39) Sponsors: Oracle | Brave
(00:17:47) The Ethical and Social Implications of AI
(00:31:53) AI's Role in Addressing Loneliness and Social Engagement
(00:33:24) Sponsors: Squad | Omneky
(00:35:12) The Future of AI: Subscription Models and Ethical Considerations
(00:44:13) Exploring AI's Ethical Balancing Act
(00:46:14) The Ethics of Personal AI Relationships
(00:52:13) The Future of AI: Customization and Personalization
(00:56:02) The Role of Multiple AI Friends in a Diverse Ecosystem
(01:00:23) The Impact of AI on Market Dynamics and Competition
(01:11:22) Big Tech's Dominance and Startup Ecosystem Challenges
(01:22:54) Navigating the Tech Landscape: Opportunities and Challenges
(01:25:47) The Importance of Future-Proofing in AI Development
(01:28:26) Legal and Compliance Challenges in AI Implementation
(01:30:43) Venture Capital and AI: Navigating the Investment Landscape
(01:40:56) The Future of Employment in the Age of AI
(01:50:15) The Departures from OpenAI's Safety Team: Implications and Insights
OpenAI Sora, Google Gemini, and Meta with Zvi Mowshowitz
In this episode, Zvi Mowshowitz returns to the show to discuss OpenAI’s Sora model, Google’s Gemini announcement, Anthropic’s Sleeper Agents, and other live player analysis. Try the Brave search API for free for up to 2000 queries per month at https://brave.com/api
Definitely also take a moment to subscribe to Zvi's blog Don't Worry About the Vase
(https://thezvi.wordpress.com/) - Zvi is an information hyperprocessor who synthesizes vast amounts of new and ever-evolving information into extremely clear summaries that help educated people keep up with the latest news.
LINKS:
-Zvi’s Blog: https://thezvi.substack.com/
- Waymark The Frost Episode: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c1pPiGD7cBw
-Anthropic Sleeper Agents: https://www.anthropic.com/news/sleeper-agents-training-deceptive-llms-that-persist-through-safety-training
SPONSORS:
The Brave search API can be used to assemble a data set to train your AI models and help with retrieval augmentation at the time of inference. All while remaining affordable with developer first pricing, integrating the Brave search API into your workflow translates to more ethical data sourcing and more human representative data sets. Try the Brave search API for free for up to 2000 queries per month at https://brave.com/api
Omneky is an omnichannel creative generation platform that lets you launch hundreds of thousands of ad iterations that actually work customized across all platforms, with a click of a button. Omneky combines generative AI and real-time advertising data. Mention "Cog Rev" for 10% off www.omneky.com
NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you're looking for an ERP platform ✅ head to NetSuite: http://netsuite.com/cognitive and download your own customized KPI checklist.
X/Social:
@TheZvi (Zvi)
@labenz (Nathan)
@CogRev_Podcast
TIMESTAMPS:
(00:04:37) - Zvi’s feedback on the type of content the show should create
(00:05:33) - Zvi’s experience with Gemini
(00:09:42) - Speculating on Google Gemini’s launch timing
(00:12:54) - Advantages of Gemini
(00:16:11) - Sponsors: Brave
(00:25:00) - Speculating on Gemini 1.5 and market dynamics for foundational models.
(00:28:18) How long context windows change things
(00:30:57) - Sponsor: Netsuite | Omneky
(00:41:06) - LLM Leaderboards
(00:43:37) - Physics world modelling in OpenAI Sora
(00:57:25) - Object permanence in Sora
(01:04:40) - Experiments Zvi would run on Sora
(01:06:21) - Superalignment and Anthropic Sleeper Agent
(01:10:47) - When do agents actually start to work?
(01:16:00) - Raising the standard for AI app developers
(01:22:07) - Dangers of open soure development
(01:30:53) - The future of compact models
(01:33:58) - Superalignment
(01:53:00) - Meta
(01:54:20) - Mistral’s hold over the regulatory environment
(02:04:16) - The Impact of Chip Bans on AI Development
This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co.
OpenAI, Amazon's Anthropic Investment, and the Roman Empire with Zvi Mowshowitz
Zvi Mowshowitz, the writer behind Don't Worry About the Vase, returns to catch up with Nathan on everything OpenAI, Amazon-Anthropic collab, and Google Deepmind. They also discuss Perplexity, deepfakes, and software bundling vs the Roman Empire. If you're looking for an ERP platform, check out our sponsor, NetSuite: http://netsuite.com/cognitive
Definitely also take a moment to subscribe to Zvi's blog Don't Worry About the Vase
(https://thezvi.wordpress.com/) - Zvi is an information hyperprocessor who synthesizes vast amounts of new and ever-evolving information into extremely clear summaries that help educated people keep up with the latest news.
We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com.
SPONSORS: Shopify | NetSuite | Omneky
Shopify is the global commerce platform that helps you sell at every stage of your business. Shopify powers 10% of ALL eCommerce in the US. And Shopify's the global force behind Allbirds, Rothy's, and Brooklinen, and 1,000,000s of other entrepreneurs across 175 countries.From their all-in-one e-commerce platform, to their in-person POS system – wherever and whatever you're selling, Shopify's got you covered. With free Shopify Magic, sell more with less effort by whipping up captivating content that converts – from blog posts to product descriptions using AI. Sign up for $1/month trial period: https://shopify.com/cognitive
NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you're looking for an ERP platform ✅ head to NetSuite: http://netsuite.com/cognitive and download your own customized KPI checklist.
Omneky is an omnichannel creative generation platform that lets you launch hundreds of thousands of ad iterations that actually work customized across all platforms, with a click of a button. Omneky combines generative AI and real-time advertising data. Mention "Cog Rev" for 10% off.
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00:00 - Episode Preview
(00:02:42) - Nathan's experience using Code Interpreter for a React app
00:06:09 - Zvi's perspective on Code Interpreter and other new Anthropic products
(00:10:47) - Nathan's approach of "coding by analogy" using Code Interpreter
(00:15:42) - Sponsors: Netsuite | Omneky
(00:17:00 )- Performance degradation issues with large context windows
(00:22:50) - The disconnect between Anthropic's value and what users are willing to pay
(00:31:56) - Predicting Gemini's capabilities relative to GPT-4
00:30:13 - Rating Code Interpreter's capabilities
(00:37:53) - Using Perplexity vs. Anthropic products for search
(00:44:11) - Potential for a bundled subscription for multiple AI services
(00:47:39) - Challenges of getting competitors to agree to bundling
(00:54:05) - Concerns over information pollution from synthetic content
(00:56:36) - Filtering adversarial vs. unintentional bogus information
(01:02:20) - Dangers of info pollution visible in Archive dataset
(01:11:15) - Kevin Fisher’s AI Souls demo with emotional voices
(01:12:15) - Difficulty of detecting AI voices/images for a general audience
(01:14:32) - Being optimistic about defending against deepfakes
(01:21:12) - The reversal curse in language models
(01:46:12) - Implications of Amazon investing in Anthropic
(01:49:20) - Non-standard terms likely affected the Anthropic valuation
(01:51:13) - Survey of the AI Safety landscape
E49: Open AI, Anthropic, and Meta | Analyzing the AI Frontier with Zvi
This isn't news, it's analysis! Nathan Labenz sits down for an with Zvi Mowshowitz, the writer behind Don't Worry About the Vase to talk about the major players in AI over the last few months. In this extended conversation, Nathan and Zvi debate if AI has attained the intelligence of a well-read college graduate (per OpenAI's Jan Leike), a live player analysis (who to count/ who not to count), and the role of independent red teaming organizations. If you're looking for an ERP platform, check out our sponsor, NetSuite: http://netsuite.com/cognitive
Definitely also take a moment to subscribe to Zvi's blog Don't Worry About the Vase (https://thezvi.wordpress.com/) - Zvi is an information hyperprocessor who synthesizes vast amounts of new and ever-evolving information into extremely clear summaries that help educated people keep up with the latest news. Highly recommend.
We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com.
TIMESTAMPS:
(00:00) Episode preview
(03:15) Is AI as intelligent as a college grad?
(07:45) Memories and context processing
(15:45) Sponsor: NetSuite | Omneky
(17:13) Is AI as intelligent as a college grad? cont'd
(20:47) Strengths and weaknesses of AI vs human
(31:05) OpenAI Superalignment
(37:23) The relationship between OpenAI and Anthropic
(44:31) Anthropic's security recommendations and adversarial attacks
(50:50) Is OpenAI using a constitutional AI approach?
(01:01:26) Context and stochastic parrots
(01:10) Is more context better?
(01:15:29) Should Nathan work at Anthropic?
(01:21:35) Google DeepMind's RT-2
(01:27:47) Multi-modal Med-PaLM
(01:31:50) Speculating about Gato
(01:35:10) Skepticism about Med-PaLM usage in radiology
(01:41:37) Llama 2 - what is going on at Meta??
(01:51:14) Llama 2 vs other models
(01:55:29) Who are the live players?
(02:01:38) China's AI developments
(02:02:41) Character AI and Inflection
(02:05:26) Replit as the perfect substrate for AGI
(02:10) AI girlfriends
(02:18:53) AI safety: The White House
(02:25:43) Bottlenecks to progress
(02:35:27) Can new players influence AI policy?
(02:39:00) Liabilities
(02:47:54) Independent red teaming organizations
(02:57:18) Mechanistic interpretability
X:
@labenz (Nathan)
@thezvi (Zvi)
@eriktorenberg (Erik)
@cogrev_podcast
SPONSORS: Shopify | NetSuite | Omneky
Shopify is the global commerce platform that helps you sell at every stage of your business. Shopify powers 10% of ALL eCommerce in the US. And Shopify's the global force behind Allbirds, Rothy's, and Brooklinen, and 1,000,000s of other entrepreneurs across 175 countries.From their all-in-one e-commerce platform, to their in-person POS system – wherever and whatever you're selling, Shopify's got you covered. With free Shopify Magic, sell more with less effort by whipping up captivating content that converts – from blog posts to product descriptions using AI. Sign up for $1/month trial period: https://shopify.com/cognitive
-NetSuite provides financial software for all your business needs. More than thirty-six thousand companies have already upgraded to NetSuite, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you’re looking for an ERP platform: NetSuite (http://netsuite.com/cognitive) and defer payments of a FULL NetSuite implementation for six months.
-Omneky is an omnichannel creative generation platform that lets you launch hundreds of thousands of ad iterations that *actually work* customized across all platforms, with a click of a button. Omneky combines generative AI and real-time advertising data. Mention "Cog Rev" for 10% off.
MUSIC CREDIT:
MusicLM
E44: The AI Safety Debates with Zvi Mowshowitz
Nathan Labenz sits down with Zvi Mowshowitz, the writer behind Don't Worry About the Vase.
Zvi is an information hyperprocessor who synthesizes vast amounts of new and ever-evolving information into extremely clear summaries that help educated people keep up with the latest news. In this episode, we cover his AI safety worldview, an overview of the AI discourse, and who really matters in the AI debates.
We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com.
RECOMMENDED PODCAST:
The HR industry is at a crossroads. What will it take to construct the next generation of incredible businesses – and where can people leaders have the most business impact? Hosts Nolan Church and Kelli Dragovich have been through it all, the highs and the lows – IPOs, layoffs, executive turnover, board meetings, culture changes, and more. With a lineup of industry vets and experts, Nolan and Kelli break down the nitty-gritty details, trade offs, and dynamics of constructing high performing companies. Through unfiltered conversations that can only happen between seasoned practitioners, Kelli and Nolan dive deep into the kind of leadership-level strategy that often happens behind closed doors. Check out the first episode with the architect of Netflix’s culture deck Patty McCord.
https://link.chtbl.com/hrheretics
Do you have questions you want us to answer, topic requests, or guest suggestions for upcoming episodes? Email us at TCR@turpentine.co
Also, be sure to check out our recent release on YouTube: The AI Scouting Report Part 1: The Fundamentals
TIMESTAMPS:
(00:00) Episode Preview
(05:00) Zvi’s Introduction to AI
(07:04) Weekly 10,000+ words / Weekly newsletter
(12:34) Language models
(18:25) AI Worldview
(27:30) Probably of Due
(33:10) Inspirations for Content
(39:00) Audience for Writings
(45:25) Impactful figures’ impact
(48:55) Path of the river
(55:39) Different camps in AI discourse
(01:13:55) Acceleration Front Argument
(01:20:08) Large Language Models Today
(01:27:00) Spendings in AI
(01:36:03) Principles / Virtue Ethicism
(01:43:30) Human vs Non-human Universe
(01:47:32) AI Safety & “Doomers”
(02:02:10) Expectations of Human/AI Relationship
(02:10:30) Future of Online Laws and Ethics
(02:19:10) What do we do next?
(02:34:50) Sources for learning
(02:42:08) Conclusion
LINKS:
Don't Worry About the Vase: https://thezvi.substack.com/
TWITTER:
@labenz (Nathan)
@theZvi (Zvi)
@eriktorenberg (Erik)
@cogrev_podcast
SPONSORS:
Shopify is the global commerce platform that helps you sell at every stage of your business. Shopify powers 10% of ALL eCommerce in the US. And Shopify's the global force behind Allbirds, Rothy's, and Brooklinen, and 1,000,000s of other entrepreneurs across 175 countries.From their all-in-one e-commerce platform, to their in-person POS system – wherever and whatever you're selling, Shopify's got you covered. With free Shopify Magic, sell more with less effort by whipping up captivating content that converts – from blog posts to product descriptions using AI. Sign up for $1/month trial period: https://shopify.com/cognitive
Thank you Omneky (www.omneky.com) for sponsoring The Cognitive Revolution. Omneky is an omnichannel creative generation platform that lets you launch hundreds of thousands of ad iterations that actually work, customized across all platforms, with a click of a button. Omneky combines generative AI and real-time advertising data. Mention "Cog Rev" for 10% off.
MUSIC CREDIT:
MusicLM
E8: GPT4 - AI Unleashed on ChinaTalk Podcast
How will GPT4 change the world? How will US-China 'racing dynamics' play out and what are the implications for AI safety? Nathan Labenz was invited to record a special "emergency" episode of ChinaTalk podcast this week to discuss the implications GPT4 will have for policy, economics, and society. Thanks to Jordan Schneider of ChinaTalk, and fellow "AI justice league" guests Zvi Mowshowitz of 'Don't Worry About the Vase' and Matthew Mittelsteadt of Mercatus.
We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com.
(0:00) Intro
(2:09) GPT-4 emergency podcast
(9:26) GPT-4 use cases
(22:51) What GPT-4 can and can’t do
(35:50) AI safety
(45:38) OpenAI v. Anthropic
(48:54) Governments’ role in AI
(55:50) AI will improve physical health and healthcare the most
(59:19) Facebook’s LLaMA model
(01:05:55) VR/AR
(01:08:59) Concerns with GPT4
(01:15:26) GPT-5 and GPT-6
(01:18:45) Optimism in the AI revolution
SPONSOR: SHOPIFY | OMNEKY
Shopify is the global commerce platform that helps you sell at every stage of your business. Shopify powers 10% of ALL eCommerce in the US. And Shopify's the global force behind Allbirds, Rothy's, and Brooklinen, and 1,000,000s of other entrepreneurs across 175 countries.From their all-in-one e-commerce platform, to their in-person POS system – wherever and whatever you're selling, Shopify's got you covered. With free Shopify Magic, sell more with less effort by whipping up captivating content that converts – from blog posts to product descriptions using AI. Sign up for $1/month trial period: https://shopify.com/cognitive
Thank you Omneky for sponsoring The Cognitive Revolution. Omneky is an omnichannel creative generation platform that lets you launch hundreds of thousands of ad iterations that actually work, customized across all platforms, with a click of a button. Omneky combines generative AI and real time advertising data, to generate personalized experiences at scale.
Twitter:
@CogRev_Podcast
@labenz (Nathan)
@jordanschnyc (Jordan)
Websites:
cognitivervolution.ai
RECOMMENDED PODCAST:
The HR industry is at a crossroads. What will it take to construct the next generation of incredible businesses – and where can people leaders have the most business impact? Hosts Nolan Church and Kelli Dragovich have been through it all, the highs and the lows – IPOs, layoffs, executive turnover, board meetings, culture changes, and more. With a lineup of industry vets and experts, Nolan and Kelli break down the nitty-gritty details, trade offs, and dynamics of constructing high performing companies. Through unfiltered conversations that can only happen between seasoned practitioners, Kelli and Nolan dive deep into the kind of leadership-level strategy that often happens behind closed doors. Check out the first episode with the architect of Netflix’s culture deck Patty McCord.
https://link.chtbl.com/hrheretics
This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co.
