Lots More With Skanda Amarnath on the Risks of Kevin Warsh
Trump has announced that former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh is going to be his nominee to succeed Jerome Powell. The responses to the news are split among some interesting lines. People like Neil Dutta have been highly critical, while at the same time, the pick has earned praise from Jason Furman, who was the Chair of President Obama's Council of Economic Advisers. So who is Kevin Warsh? And why is this pick particularly controversial? On this episode, we talk with Skanda Amarnath, Executive Director of Employ America, who walks us through Warsh's history of commenting on and executing monetary policy. He argues that in addition to having gotten some big calls wrong (particularly in the years surrounding the GFC), Warsh has a history of aligning his policy views with partisan consideration. We also talk about the challenges Warsh will have establishing credibility within the FOMC, as well as challenges that may arise the next time the Fed has to step in during a period of crisis.
Read more:
Fed’s Musalem Says It Would Be ‘Unadvisable’ to Lower Rates
Carney, Macklem Congratulate Warsh on Federal Reserve Nomination
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Lots More With Skanda Amarnath on This Moment in Macro
Right now, you could make a good argument that inflation is still too hot, and that with the stock market booming, and the unemployment rate at 4.2%, that it's crazy to think about cutting rates. You could also argue that much of the economy is stalling, that the pace of job growth has slowed dramatically, and that with housing in the tank, we need lower rates. Then on top of this situation, layer in the fact that we have this weird bifurcated economy, with the AI sector growing like gangbusters. And then add onto that the attacks on the independence of the Federal Reserve coming from the Trump administration. And furthermore, trade policy is still a moving target. To make sense of this complicated time — and to look ahead to next week's Jackson Hole conference — we speak with Skanda Amarnath, the executive director of Employ America.
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Odd Lots Live: What to Watch on Election Night and Beyond
It's Election Day in the US, so there's no need for any real explanation of what's at stake. Last night in New York City, we hosted a special live Odd Lots event, where we interviewed some of our regular guests on stage to talk about the vote, as well as the economic and market implications in the days and years ahead — regardless of who wins. First up, you'll hear a conversation about prediction markets, regular markets, and vote-watching with Skanda Amarnath of Employ America, Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro, and prediction markets bettor Zvi Mowshowitz. And then in the second half of the show, we hear from the Council on Foreign Relations fellow Brad Setser on the global environment — what Brad calls an "unhealthy globalization" — that the next president will inherit.
Read More: How the World Is Prepping for a Trump or Harris Victory
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What Really Goes Into the Fed's Favorite Measure of Inflation?
The Federal Reserve has a goal of getting inflation down to 2%. But of course, there are a lot of different ways of measuring inflation. Many people know about the Consumer Price Index, and the various ways it can be sliced and diced. The Fed, however, focuses on a different index — Personal Consumption Expenditure — which differs from the CPI in a number of ways, both in terms of category weightings and methodological approaches. So why are there different measures of inflation? Why does the Fed prefer PCE? And how is PCE actually assembled? On this episode, we speak with Omair Sharif, founder and president of Inflation Insights, as well as Skanda Amarnath, executive director of Employ America. We explore these two different measures, the approaches for calculating them, and the weird quirks underneath the surface that makes them all so interesting and controversial.
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A Concrete Plan to Bring the Price of Oil Down Right Now
The price of oil is the central threat to the economy right now. Surging gasoline costs crimp consumer budgets. Surging diesel costs make everything more expensive. And of course, we know there are all kinds of structural impediments to increasing supply. But the stakes are huge, particularly since the Federal Reserve has signaled its willingness to throw the economy into a recession, if that's what it takes to get inflation down. So is there anything that can be done? On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Skanda Amarnath, the Executive Director at Employ America, as well as Rory Johnston, the founder of Commodity Context and an investor at Price Street, to talk about concrete steps that can be taken to increase oil supplies and bring about price stability.
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The semiconductor shortage: explained
You can find Alex's writing for Employ America here. You can find him on Twitter here
You can find Hassan's blog here and his Twitter here.
You can find their writing on the semiconductor industry and shortages here and here.
Our lifeboat badge winner of the week is jasme, who helped someone figure out how to fix email validation with Laravel.
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How to Make the U.S. Semiconductor Industry Boom Again
This year, everyone's become aware of the hollowing out of U.S. semiconductor manufacturing capacity. Whether it's the rise of TSMC, the stumbles at Intel, or the inability of car companies to acquire much-needed chips, semiconductors are becoming a major political issue. But how can you actually turn things around? What would the right policy mix look like? On this episode, we speak with Alex Williams, a research analyst at Employ America, and Hassan Khan, a tech procurement expert with a PhD in semiconductor policy, to discuss how the new administration can make American chip manufacturing roar back to life.
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Did We Just Experience a Break in the Neoliberal Consensus?
For decades, the dominant economic philosophy of the United States has been that fiscal policy should be relatively inert, and that the Fed should be the primary driver of macroeconomic stabilization. But that may be changing. As evidenced by the stimulus deal, the political willingness to use fiscal stimulus in a responsive way appears to be growing. Moreover, the importance and power of fiscal firepower has been accepted by a range of actors, from Senator Bernie Sanders to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. So are we at the start of a trend break in the neoliberal consensus (whatever that means)? We debated this question with Skanda Amarnath, the head of research at Employ America and Mike Konczal, Director at the Roosevelt Institute and the author of the new book "Freedom from the Market America’s Fight to Liberate Itself from the Grip of the Invisible Hand."
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How To Stop The Fiscal Emergency Facing U.S. Cities And States
With the U.S. economy going into a deep slump, the Federal government has attempted to counteract the pain by increasing spending. But for cities and states, it’s virtually impossible for them to run counter-cyclical fiscal policy. Furthermore, the crisis is draining local coffers due to public health expenditure and the collapse of tax revenue. This has already led to the start of a state and local austerity wave (spending cuts, layoffs, etc.) that could take years to reverse. On this week’s episode, we speak with three people who have been writing about this aspect of the crisis, and how it could be addressed by both the Fed and the U.S. Treasury. We’re joined by Skanda Amarnath of Employ America, Yakov Feygin of the Berggruen Institute, and Alex Williams, a grad student at the Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, to discuss the shape of the problem and the way back to economic health.
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