AI:AM #3: Zvi on Fable, the Cases For & Against the Ban, + AI for Math, Logistics & More
Zvi Mowshowitz joins AI in the AM to unpack Anthropic's Fable system card, including its FrontierMath leap, troubling Vending-Bench behavior, decision-theory drift, and signs that model reasoning may be becoming harder to read. The episode then turns to the US government's attempted export-control action against Fable, with Zvi arguing that the cited jailbreak demonstration did not prove the claimed threat while still faulting Anthropic's political handling. Sam Hammond and Judd Rosenblatt add competing reads on state capacity, CAISI, NSA-driven caution, and the alignment world's failure to build trust across partisan lines. The stakes are whether frontier AI capability, safety evaluation, and government power can be coordinated before medicine, mathematics, software, and cyber-relevant systems move further ahead.
For full show notes, links, and references, read the episode page:
https://www.cognitiverevolution.ai/ai-am-3-zvi-on-fable-the-cases-for-against-the-ban-ai-for-math-logistics-more/
Mercury: Command is Mercury’s new conversational interface, giving you natural-language access to your finances and helping you take actions within your existing permissions and approval policies. Visit https://mercury.com to learn more and apply online in minutes.
Sponsor:
Claude:
Claude by Anthropic is an AI collaborator that understands your workflow and helps you tackle research, writing, coding, and organization with deep context. Get started with Claude and explore Claude Pro at https://claude.ai/tcr
CHAPTERS:
(00:00) About the Episode
(01:28) Special Sponsor
(03:17) Weekly highlights preview
(05:23) Fable capability alarms
(16:29) Anthropic government strategy (Part 1)
(16:34) Sponsor: Claude
(18:26) Anthropic government strategy (Part 2)
(27:16) Cyber ban rationale
(37:14) Government power politics
(48:57) Unavoidable control risks
(01:01:42) Government mechanics and empathy
(01:12:50) Legal authority limits
(01:19:02) Pause Overton window
(01:31:58) Medicine, math, safety
(01:47:27) Software without code
(02:01:19) Enterprise world models
(02:10:46) Episode Outro
(02:13:39) Outro
PRODUCED BY:
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SOCIAL LINKS:
Website: https://www.cognitiverevolution.ai
Twitter (Podcast): https://x.com/cogrev_podcast
Twitter (Nathan): https://x.com/labenz
LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/in/nathanlabenz/
Youtube: https://youtube.com/@CognitiveRevolutionPodcast
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/de/podcast/the-cognitive-revolution-ai-builders-researchers-and/id1669813431
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6yHyok3M3BjqzR0VB5MSyk
Approaching the AI Event Horizon? Part 1, w/ James Zou, Sam Hammond, Shoshannah Tekofsky, @8teAPi
Part 1 of this live special dives into AI for Science, U.S. AI policy, and the behavior of AI agents in open-ended environments. James Zou explains how interpretability and virtual labs of AI agents can accelerate scientific discovery. Sam Hammond assesses the Biden administration’s AI policy, U.S.–Gulf AI deals, and the odds current AIs are conscious. Shoshannah Tekofsky shares insights from studying agent performance and emergent behavior in the AI Village.
Nathan uses Granola to uncover blind spots in conversations and AI research. Try it at granola.ai/tcr with code TCR — and if you’re already using it, test his blind spot recipe here: https://bit.ly/granolablindspot
LINKS:
Model human wellness project doc
AI Village 2025 findings report
Sponsors:
GovAI:
GovAI was founded ten years ago on the belief that AI would end up transforming our world. Ten years later, the organization is at the forefront of trying to help decision-makers in government and industry navigate the transition to advanced AI. GovAI is now hiring Research Scholars (one-year positions for those transitioning into AI policy) and Research Fellows (longer-term roles for experienced researchers). Both roles offer significant freedom to pursue policy research, advise decision-makers, or launch new initiatives. Applications close 22 February 2026. Apply at: https://www.governance.ai/opportunities
Blitzy:
Blitzy is the autonomous code generation platform that ingests millions of lines of code to accelerate enterprise software development by up to 5x with premium, spec-driven output. Schedule a strategy session with their AI solutions consultants at https://blitzy.com
Tasklet:
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Serval:
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Claude
Claude is the AI collaborator that understands your entire workflow, from drafting and research to coding and complex problem-solving. Start tackling bigger problems with Claude and unlock Claude Pro’s full capabilities at https://claude.ai/tcr
PRODUCED BY:
https://aipodcast.ing
AGI and Institutional Disruption: Sam Hammond in Conversation with FLI’s Gus Docker
For the end of the year, we're going to repost a few of Nathan's favorite AI scouting episodes from other shows. Today: Samuel Hammond joins the Future of Life Institute podcast to discuss how AGI will transform economies, governments, institutions, and other power structures. If you need an ecommerce platform, check out our sponsor Shopify: https://shopify.com/cognitive for a $1/month trial period.
Samuel Hammond is a Canadian-born, DC-based senior economist for the Foundation for American Innovation, a think tank focused on bridging the cultures of Silicon Valley and DC. This conversation is super wide ranging, covering the most likely default path to AGI, the economic and institutional transformations that AI will beget, the critical distinction between thinking about AI in isolation versus as part of a dynamic system, the proposal for a Manhattan or Apollo like megaproject for AI safety, and lots more.
You can subscribe to Future of Life Institute here: https://futureoflife.org/project/future-of-life-institute-podcast/
You can read Samuel Hammond's blog at https://www.secondbest.ca
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We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com.
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SPONSORS:
Shopify is the global commerce platform that helps you sell at every stage of your business. Shopify powers 10% of ALL eCommerce in the US. And Shopify's the global force behind Allbirds, Rothy's, and Brooklinen, and 1,000,000s of other entrepreneurs across 175 countries.From their all-in-one e-commerce platform, to their in-person POS system – wherever and whatever you're selling, Shopify's got you covered. With free Shopify Magic, sell more with less effort by whipping up captivating content that converts – from blog posts to product descriptions using AI. Sign up for $1/month trial period: https://shopify.com/cognitive
Omneky is an omnichannel creative generation platform that lets you launch hundreds of thousands of ad iterations that actually work customized across all platforms, with a click of a button. Omneky combines generative AI and real-time advertising data. Mention "Cog Rev" for 10% off www.omneky.com
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TIMESTAMPS:
(00:00) Intro: End of year and bonus episodes
(04:24) Discussion on AI Timelines
(14:08) Insights from Information Theory
(15:11) Sponsors: Shopify | MasterClass
(32:12) AI Progress and Hard Steps in Evolution
(34:21) Sponsors: NetSuite | Omneky
(39:12) Government Preparedness for Advanced AI
(46:16) The Internet's Role in Mass Mobilization and Erosion of Trust
(01:05:47) The Role of AI in Monitoring and Surveillance
(01:27:18) The Potential Dangers of Open-Sourcing AI
(01:36:24) The Influence of AI on Society and Privacy
(01:42:21) The Future of Government Services in a Techno-Feudalist Society
(01:53:58) The Future of AI in Robotics
(02:15:25) The Role of AI in the Future of Financial Markets
This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co.
197 - Software Eating the State with Sammuel Hammond
Is software eating the nation state? Technologies like crypto and AI are about to fundamentally restructure society from the bottom up. We brought economist and writer, Sam Hammond on to predict how society will be reorganized under this new paradigm and how those in power will respond.
Sam Hammond is an economist for the Foundation for American Innovation, a think tank advising policies in DC whose slogan reads, “Build Tech. Promote Freedom.” Freedom and Tech. We like those two things on Bankless - and we're also concerned with the project of how to protect them in a world where software starts to eat the nation state (and the nation state feels threatened).
------ ✨ DEBRIEF | Ryan & David unpacking the episode: https://www.bankless.com/debrief-sam-hammond
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------ TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro 6:48 Sam’s Take on Crypto 9:50 Nation State’s Hate on Crypto 14:53 Post-Printing Press 20:55 Crypto, AI, & The Internet 25:40 Tech Good, Bad, or Neutral? 32:03 Bracing For Impact & Tech Debt 38:15 Nation State Competition 46:39 Dangerous Tech 50:00 The Network State 1:04:55 AI Executive Order 1:12:28 China’s AI Approach 1:15:20 AI’s Double Edged Sword 1:33:45 AI & The Leviathan 1:48:23 What Technology Winning Means? 1:50:58 Closing & Disclaimers
------ RESOURCES
Sam’s Substack, “Second Best” https://www.secondbest.ca/ AI & The Leviathan https://www.secondbest.ca/p/ai-and-leviathan-part-iii
The Dynamist - Podcast https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-dynamist/id1528920211 Eliezer Yudkowski Episode https://www.bankless.com/159-were-all-gonna-die-with-eliezer-yudkowsky
------ Not financial or tax advice. See our investment disclosures here: https://www.bankless.com/disclosures
