Zvi Mowshowitz joins AI in the AM to unpack Anthropic's Fable system card, including its FrontierMath leap, troubling Vending-Bench behavior, decision-theory drift, and signs that model reasoning may be becoming harder to read. The episode then turns to the US government's attempted export-control action against Fable, with Zvi arguing that the cited jailbreak demonstration did not prove the claimed threat while still faulting Anthropic's political handling. Sam Hammond and Judd Rosenblatt add competing reads on state capacity, CAISI, NSA-driven caution, and the alignment world's failure to build trust across partisan lines. The stakes are whether frontier AI capability, safety evaluation, and government power can be coordinated before medicine, mathematics, software, and cyber-relevant systems move further ahead.
For full show notes, links, and references, read the episode page:
https://www.cognitiverevolution.ai/ai-am-3-zvi-on-fable-the-cases-for-against-the-ban-ai-for-math-logistics-more/
Mercury: Command is Mercury’s new conversational interface, giving you natural-language access to your finances and helping you take actions within your existing permissions and approval policies. Visit https://mercury.com to learn more and apply online in minutes.
Sponsor:
Claude:
Claude by Anthropic is an AI collaborator that understands your workflow and helps you tackle research, writing, coding, and organization with deep context. Get started with Claude and explore Claude Pro at https://claude.ai/tcr
CHAPTERS:
(00:00) About the Episode
(01:28) Special Sponsor
(03:17) Weekly highlights preview
(05:23) Fable capability alarms
(16:29) Anthropic government strategy (Part 1)
(16:34) Sponsor: Claude
(18:26) Anthropic government strategy (Part 2)
(27:16) Cyber ban rationale
(37:14) Government power politics
(48:57) Unavoidable control risks
(01:01:42) Government mechanics and empathy
(01:12:50) Legal authority limits
(01:19:02) Pause Overton window
(01:31:58) Medicine, math, safety
(01:47:27) Software without code
(02:01:19) Enterprise world models
(02:10:46) Episode Outro
(02:13:39) Outro
PRODUCED BY:
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SOCIAL LINKS:
Website: https://www.cognitiverevolution.ai
Twitter (Podcast): https://x.com/cogrev_podcast
Twitter (Nathan): https://x.com/labenz
LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/in/nathanlabenz/
Youtube: https://youtube.com/@CognitiveRevolutionPodcast
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/de/podcast/the-cognitive-revolution-ai-builders-researchers-and/id1669813431
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6yHyok3M3BjqzR0VB5MSyk
Dean Ball, author of Hyperdimensional and until now a senior fellow at the Foundation for American Innovation, joins Nathan to announce he is joining OpenAI to build a team focused on frontier AI policy. They examine the first year of America’s AI Action Plan, Dean’s concerns about export controls and intelligence-community testing, and his broader argument against concentrating frontier AI decisions inside a small circle of government officials. The episode frames frontier labs as emerging centers of political and economic power, where consequential choices about internal deployments and recursive self-improvement may happen before public release or regulation. The stakes are who gets to shape AI governance as capabilities accelerate: federal agencies, states, labs, independent verifiers, households, or some fragile mix of them all.
For full show notes, links, and references, read the episode page:
https://www.cognitiverevolution.ai/dean-ball-on-joining-openai-new-power-centers-frontier-ai-policy-main-character-energy/
Mercury: Command is Mercury’s new conversational interface, giving you natural-language access to your finances and helping you take actions within your existing permissions and approval policies. Visit https://mercury.com to learn more and apply online in minutes.
Sponsor:
Claude:
Claude by Anthropic is an AI collaborator that understands your workflow and helps you tackle research, writing, coding, and organization with deep context. Get started with Claude and explore Claude Pro at https://claude.ai/tcr
PRODUCED BY:
https://aipodcast.ing
SOCIAL LINKS:
Website: https://www.cognitiverevolution.ai
Twitter (Podcast): https://x.com/cogrev_podcast
Twitter (Nathan): https://x.com/labenz
LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/in/nathanlabenz/
Youtube: https://youtube.com/@CognitiveRevolutionPodcast
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/de/podcast/the-cognitive-revolution-ai-builders-researchers-and/id1669813431
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6yHyok3M3BjqzR0VB5MSyk
Part 1 of this live special dives into AI for Science, U.S. AI policy, and the behavior of AI agents in open-ended environments. James Zou explains how interpretability and virtual labs of AI agents can accelerate scientific discovery. Sam Hammond assesses the Biden administration’s AI policy, U.S.–Gulf AI deals, and the odds current AIs are conscious. Shoshannah Tekofsky shares insights from studying agent performance and emergent behavior in the AI Village.
Nathan uses Granola to uncover blind spots in conversations and AI research. Try it at granola.ai/tcr with code TCR — and if you’re already using it, test his blind spot recipe here: https://bit.ly/granolablindspot
LINKS:
Model human wellness project doc
AI Village 2025 findings report
Sponsors:
GovAI:
GovAI was founded ten years ago on the belief that AI would end up transforming our world. Ten years later, the organization is at the forefront of trying to help decision-makers in government and industry navigate the transition to advanced AI. GovAI is now hiring Research Scholars (one-year positions for those transitioning into AI policy) and Research Fellows (longer-term roles for experienced researchers). Both roles offer significant freedom to pursue policy research, advise decision-makers, or launch new initiatives. Applications close 22 February 2026. Apply at: https://www.governance.ai/opportunities
Blitzy:
Blitzy is the autonomous code generation platform that ingests millions of lines of code to accelerate enterprise software development by up to 5x with premium, spec-driven output. Schedule a strategy session with their AI solutions consultants at https://blitzy.com
Tasklet:
Tasklet is an AI agent that automates your work 24/7; just describe what you want in plain English and it gets the job done. Try it for free and use code COGREV for 50% off your first month at https://tasklet.ai
Serval:
Serval uses AI-powered automations to cut IT help desk tickets by more than 50%, freeing your team from repetitive tasks like password resets and onboarding. Book your free pilot and guarantee 50% help desk automation by week four at https://serval.com/cognitive
Claude
Claude is the AI collaborator that understands your entire workflow, from drafting and research to coding and complex problem-solving. Start tackling bigger problems with Claude and unlock Claude Pro’s full capabilities at https://claude.ai/tcr
PRODUCED BY:
https://aipodcast.ing
This year-end live show features nine rapid-fire conversations to make sense of AI’s 2025 and what might define 2026. PSA for AI builders: Interested in alignment, governance, or AI safety? Learn more about the MATS Summer 2026 Fellowship and submit your name to be notified when applications open: https://matsprogram.org/s26-tcr. New York Assemblymember Alex Boris breaks down the RAISE Act's bid to curb catastrophic AI risks, the governor negotiations, and why a16z-backed ads are targeting him. Former White House AI adviser Dean Ball maps the emerging coalitions on AI, federal preemption, and what fast-improving coding agents could mean for policy and jobs. Forecaster Peter Wildeford debates selling vs "renting" chips to China and offers a 2026 outlook on agents, costs, and robotics. Recorded live as part of our AI 2025→2026 series (Part 2).
Sponsors:
Gemini 3 in Google AI Studio:
Gemini 3 in Google AI Studio lets you build fully functional apps from a simple description—no coding required. Start vibe coding your idea today at https://ai.studio/build
MATS:
MATS is a fully funded 12-week research program pairing rising talent with top mentors in AI alignment, interpretability, security, and governance. Apply for the next cohort at https://matsprogram.org/s26-tcr
Framer:
Framer is the all-in-one tool to design, iterate, and publish stunning websites with powerful AI features. Start creating for free and use code COGNITIVE to get one free month of Framer Pro at https://framer.com/design
Shopify:
Shopify powers millions of businesses worldwide, handling 10% of U.S. e-commerce. With hundreds of templates, AI tools for product descriptions, and seamless marketing campaign creation, it's like having a design studio and marketing team in one. Start your $1/month trial today at https://shopify.com/cognitive
Tasklet:
Tasklet is an AI agent that automates your work 24/7; just describe what you want in plain English and it gets the job done. Try it for free and use code COGREV for 50% off your first month at https://tasklet.ai
CHAPTERS:
(00:00) Sponsor: Gemini 3 in Google AI Studio
(00:31) RAISE Act status
(04:52) Catastrophic risk focus
(10:47) Super PAC backlash
(16:17) Data centers and grid
(19:47) Palantir and surveillance
(23:42) Dean Ball joins (Part 1)
(23:46) Sponsors: MATS | Framer
(27:05) Dean Ball joins (Part 2)
(32:00) Social media lessons
(36:22) Trump preemption and chips (Part 1)
(40:51) Sponsors: Shopify | Tasklet
(43:59) Trump preemption and chips (Part 2)
(44:50) Structural US-China decoupling
(49:39) Peter on chip ban
(55:43) Threat model and renting
(01:02:55) Cost drops, revenue
(01:16:03) Forecasting paradigm shifts
(01:20:38) 2026 agents and robots
(01:31:41) Show wrap and markets
(01:42:28) Outro
PRODUCED BY:
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Max Tegmark and Dean Ball debate whether we should ban the development of superintelligence in a crossover episode from Doom Debates hosted by Liron Shapira. PSA for AI builders: Interested in alignment, governance, or AI safety? Learn more about the MATS Summer 2026 Fellowship and submit your name to be notified when applications open: https://matsprogram.org/s26-tcr. They unpack the Future of Life Institute's call for a moratorium until there is broad scientific consensus and public buy-in, contrasting Tegmark’s precautionary stance with Dean’s emphasis on experimentation, competition, and practical policy hurdles. Listeners will get clear takes on p(doom), the limits of FDA-style regulation, unilateral ban risks, and what safe, beneficial advanced AI might realistically look like.
LINKS:
AMA episode feedback survey form
Doom Debates Substack newsletter
Sponsors:
Framer:
Framer is the all-in-one tool to design, iterate, and publish stunning websites with powerful AI features. Start creating for free and use code COGNITIVE to get one free month of Framer Pro at https://framer.com/design
Agents of Scale:
Agents of Scale is a podcast from Zapier CEO Wade Foster, featuring conversations with C-suite leaders who are leading AI transformation. Subscribe to the show wherever you get your podcasts
Tasklet:
Tasklet is an AI agent that automates your work 24/7; just describe what you want in plain English and it gets the job done. Try it for free and use code COGREV for 50% off your first month at https://tasklet.ai
Shopify:
Shopify powers millions of businesses worldwide, handling 10% of U.S. e-commerce. With hundreds of templates, AI tools for product descriptions, and seamless marketing campaign creation, it's like having a design studio and marketing team in one. Start your $1/month trial today at https://shopify.com/cognitive
PRODUCED BY:
https://aipodcast.ing
CHAPTERS:
(00:00) About the Episode
(05:43) Cold open and intro
(09:21) Opening statements: ban debate (Part 1)
(14:49) Sponsors: Framer | Agents of Scale
(17:11) Opening statements: ban debate (Part 2)
(17:11) Licensing-style AI regulation
(26:52) Liability, tail risks (Part 1)
(33:24) Sponsors: Tasklet | Shopify
(36:32) Liability, tail risks (Part 2)
(39:23) Timelines and precautionary regulation
(47:03) Defining superintelligence and risk
(52:26) Risk-based safety standards
(56:28) Current regulations and definitions
(01:05:23) Max's doom scenario
(01:19:46) P-doom gap and adaptation
(01:34:40) National security and China
(01:43:57) Closing statements and reflections
(01:55:22) Host debrief and outro
(02:02:10) Outro
This week, we talk about Google’s new plan to build data centers in space. Then, we’re joined by Dean Ball, a former adviser at the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy. Ball worked on the Trump administration’s A.I. Action Plan, and he shares his inside view on how those policies came together. Finally, Professor Mark Humphries joins us to talk about a strange Gemini model that offered mind-blowing results on a challenging research problem.
Guests:
Dean Ball, senior fellow at the Foundation for American Innovation and former White House senior policy adviser for artificial intelligence and emerging technology
Mark Humphries, professor of history at Wilfrid Laurier University
Additional Reading:
Towards a Future Space-Based, Highly Scalable A.I. Infrastructure System Design
What It's Like to Work at the White House
Has Google Quietly Solved Two of AI’s Oldest Problems?
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In this special episode of The Cognitive Revolution, Nathan shares his thoughts on the upcoming election and its potential impact on AI development. He explores the AI-forward case for Trump, featuring an interview with Samuel Hammond. Nathan outlines his reasons for not supporting Trump, focusing on US-China relations, leadership approach, and the need for a positive-sum mindset in the AI era. He discusses the importance of stable leadership during pivotal moments and explains why he'll be voting for Kamala Harris, despite some reservations. This thought-provoking episode offers a nuanced perspective on the intersection of politics and AI development.
Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess
SPONSORS:
Weights & Biases RAG++: Advanced training for building production-ready RAG applications. Learn from experts to overcome LLM challenges, evaluate systematically, and integrate advanced features. Includes free Cohere credits. Visit https://wandb.me/cr to start the RAG++ course today.
Shopify: Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system and exclusive AI apps like Quikly. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at https://shopify.com/cognitive
Notion: Notion offers powerful workflow and automation templates, perfect for streamlining processes and laying the groundwork for AI-driven automation. With Notion AI, you can search across thousands of documents from various platforms, generating highly relevant analysis and content tailored just for you - try it for free at https://notion.com/cognitiverevolution
LMNT: LMNT is a zero-sugar electrolyte drink mix that's redefining hydration and performance. Ideal for those who fast or anyone looking to optimize their electrolyte intake. Support the show and get a free sample pack with any purchase at https://drinklmnt.com/tcr
CHAPTERS:
(00:00:00) About the Show
(00:00:22) Sponsors: Weights & Biases RAG++
(00:01:28) About the Episode
(00:13:13) Introductions
(00:14:22) The Case for Trump
(00:16:32) Trump: A Wildcard
(00:26:10) Sponsors: Shopify | Notion
(00:29:06) Ideological AI Policy
(00:33:47) Republican Ideologies
(00:40:31) Sponsors: LMNT
(00:42:11) Trump and Silicon Valley
(00:47:49) Republican Nuance
(00:53:36) Elon Musk and AI
(00:55:43) Utilitarian Analysis
(00:58:01) Internal Consistency
(01:00:31) Trump's Cabinet
(01:05:53) Immigration Reform
(01:15:30) Creative Destruction
(01:22:29) Racing China
(01:32:51) The Chip Ban
(01:44:20) Standard Setting
(01:48:36) Values and Diplomacy
(01:52:50) American Strength
(01:55:56) Red Queen Dynamic
(01:59:23) Interest Groups & AI
(02:08:32) Concluding Thoughts
(02:17:45) Outro
SOCIAL LINKS:
Website: https://www.cognitiverevolution.ai
Twitter (Podcast): https://x.com/cogrev_podcast
Twitter (Nathan): https://x.com/labenz
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nathanlabenz/
Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@CognitiveRevolutionPodcast
Dive into the nuanced debate over California's SB 1047 AI legislation with Nathan Calvin, Dean Ball, and Steve Newman. Our expert panel discussion explores the bill's intent, dispels misconceptions, and debates its potential impact on technology and regulation. Learn about AI's tail risks, the role of government, and hear suggestions for improving the legislation. Share your thoughts and join the conversation around shaping a positive AI future.
You can reach out and share your thoughts by using the contact form here : https://www.cognitiverevolution.ai/contact/
RECOMMENDED PODCAST:
The AI Daily Brief If you’re looking for an edge to stay up to date on everything AI, subscribe to Nathaniel Whittemore's AI Daily Brief which delivers tight episodes covering all things AI from legislation to new technologies to the philosophical debates around generalized intelligence.
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/7gKwwMLFLc6RmjmRpbMtEO
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-ai-daily-brief-formerly-the-ai-breakdown/id1680633614
SPONSORS:
The Brave search API can be used to assemble a data set to train your AI models and help with retrieval augmentation at the time of inference. All while remaining affordable with developer first pricing, integrating the Brave search API into your workflow translates to more ethical data sourcing and more human representative data sets. Try the Brave search API for free for up to 2000 queries per month at https://bit.ly/BraveTCR
Omneky is an omnichannel creative generation platform that lets you launch hundreds of thousands of ad iterations that actually work customized across all platforms, with a click of a button. Omneky combines generative AI and real-time advertising data. Mention "Cog Rev" for 10% off https://www.omneky.com/
Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention "Turpentine" to skip the waitlist.
CHAPTERS:
(00:00:00) Introduction
(00:05:45) Opinions
(00:11:57) The Bill
(00:17:05) Elevated discussion
(00:18:51) Sponsors: Brave | Omneky
(00:20:18) AI Doctor
(00:22:55) Centralized Regulator
(00:26:29) SB 1047
(00:27:47) Critical infrastructure
(00:31:51) Should we regulate?
(00:39:00) Sponsors: Squad
(00:40:28) Safety standards for training
(00:46:09) What is 10^26 flops?
(00:52:10) Regulating general purpose technology
(00:53:42) AI regulation
(00:58:31) Societal adaptation
(01:01:18) AI safety
(01:04:20) AI regulations
(01:07:19) The current state of the industry
(01:10:08) What industry wants changed
(01:25:42) Safety is hard to legislate
(01:33:06) How to decide the trajectory of AI?
(01:45:52) Testing, Transparency, Whistleblower Provision
(01:55:17) Closing thoughts
For the end of the year, we're going to repost a few of Nathan's favorite AI scouting episodes from other shows. Today: Samuel Hammond joins the Future of Life Institute podcast to discuss how AGI will transform economies, governments, institutions, and other power structures. If you need an ecommerce platform, check out our sponsor Shopify: https://shopify.com/cognitive for a $1/month trial period.
Samuel Hammond is a Canadian-born, DC-based senior economist for the Foundation for American Innovation, a think tank focused on bridging the cultures of Silicon Valley and DC. This conversation is super wide ranging, covering the most likely default path to AGI, the economic and institutional transformations that AI will beget, the critical distinction between thinking about AI in isolation versus as part of a dynamic system, the proposal for a Manhattan or Apollo like megaproject for AI safety, and lots more.
You can subscribe to Future of Life Institute here: https://futureoflife.org/project/future-of-life-institute-podcast/
You can read Samuel Hammond's blog at https://www.secondbest.ca
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We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com.
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SPONSORS:
Shopify is the global commerce platform that helps you sell at every stage of your business. Shopify powers 10% of ALL eCommerce in the US. And Shopify's the global force behind Allbirds, Rothy's, and Brooklinen, and 1,000,000s of other entrepreneurs across 175 countries.From their all-in-one e-commerce platform, to their in-person POS system – wherever and whatever you're selling, Shopify's got you covered. With free Shopify Magic, sell more with less effort by whipping up captivating content that converts – from blog posts to product descriptions using AI. Sign up for $1/month trial period: https://shopify.com/cognitive
Omneky is an omnichannel creative generation platform that lets you launch hundreds of thousands of ad iterations that actually work customized across all platforms, with a click of a button. Omneky combines generative AI and real-time advertising data. Mention "Cog Rev" for 10% off www.omneky.com
NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you're looking for an ERP platform ✅ head to NetSuite: http://netsuite.com/cognitive and download your own customized KPI checklist.
TIMESTAMPS:
(00:00) Intro: End of year and bonus episodes
(04:24) Discussion on AI Timelines
(14:08) Insights from Information Theory
(15:11) Sponsors: Shopify | MasterClass
(32:12) AI Progress and Hard Steps in Evolution
(34:21) Sponsors: NetSuite | Omneky
(39:12) Government Preparedness for Advanced AI
(46:16) The Internet's Role in Mass Mobilization and Erosion of Trust
(01:05:47) The Role of AI in Monitoring and Surveillance
(01:27:18) The Potential Dangers of Open-Sourcing AI
(01:36:24) The Influence of AI on Society and Privacy
(01:42:21) The Future of Government Services in a Techno-Feudalist Society
(01:53:58) The Future of AI in Robotics
(02:15:25) The Role of AI in the Future of Financial Markets
This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co.
Is software eating the nation state? Technologies like crypto and AI are about to fundamentally restructure society from the bottom up. We brought economist and writer, Sam Hammond on to predict how society will be reorganized under this new paradigm and how those in power will respond.
Sam Hammond is an economist for the Foundation for American Innovation, a think tank advising policies in DC whose slogan reads, “Build Tech. Promote Freedom.” Freedom and Tech. We like those two things on Bankless - and we're also concerned with the project of how to protect them in a world where software starts to eat the nation state (and the nation state feels threatened).
------ ✨ DEBRIEF | Ryan & David unpacking the episode: https://www.bankless.com/debrief-sam-hammond
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------ TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro 6:48 Sam’s Take on Crypto 9:50 Nation State’s Hate on Crypto 14:53 Post-Printing Press 20:55 Crypto, AI, & The Internet 25:40 Tech Good, Bad, or Neutral? 32:03 Bracing For Impact & Tech Debt 38:15 Nation State Competition 46:39 Dangerous Tech 50:00 The Network State 1:04:55 AI Executive Order 1:12:28 China’s AI Approach 1:15:20 AI’s Double Edged Sword 1:33:45 AI & The Leviathan 1:48:23 What Technology Winning Means? 1:50:58 Closing & Disclaimers
------ RESOURCES
Sam’s Substack, “Second Best” https://www.secondbest.ca/ AI & The Leviathan https://www.secondbest.ca/p/ai-and-leviathan-part-iii
The Dynamist - Podcast https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-dynamist/id1528920211 Eliezer Yudkowski Episode https://www.bankless.com/159-were-all-gonna-die-with-eliezer-yudkowsky
------ Not financial or tax advice. See our investment disclosures here: https://www.bankless.com/disclosures
