Ray Dalio: The principles that made me a billionaire
Ray Dalio's rules for building wealth: https://clickhubspot.com/rgsk
Episode 842: Sam Parr ( https://x.com/theSamParr ) and Shaan Puri ( https://x.com/ShaanVP ) sit down with Ray Dalio ( https://x.com/RayDalio ) to talk about the holy grail of investing strategies.
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Show Notes:
(0:00) Intro
(0:49) Hitting rock bottom
(8:28) Personality traits of the 1%
(14:22) Partnerships that win
(18:25) Pain + Reflection = Progress
(23:30) What’s the money for anyway?
(26:26) Principles
(28:41) Ray’s hiring philosophy
(30:43) Being a caddy
(35:16) Mistakes smart investors make
(37:01) What Ray spends his money on
(39:13) Aliens
(41:00) The 5 Big Forces
(46:35) Investing in Gold and Bubble Mechanics
(52:55) How Bridgewater became the biggest hedge fund
(55:40) The gap between the best and everyone else
(59:26) The 1 Big Takeaway
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Links:
• Ray’s Personality Test - https://principlesyou.com/
• Bridgewater Associates - https://www.bridgewater.com/
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Ray Dalio: Our System Is in Jeopardy - Debt, AI & the Cycle That Destroyed Rome
(0:00) Friedberg Introduces Ray Dalio
(1:29) 5 Forces That Will Decide America's Future
(7:26) Why Government Reform Is Nearly Impossible
(11:19) Gold vs. Bitcoin
(28:16) What Economists Got Wrong About Tariffs
(41:11) Is America Heading Towards Collapse?
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Ray Dalio joins the All-In Podcast for the third time to break down why America's debt crisis is worse than most people realize, and what comes next.
Dalio covers the five forces reshaping the global order, why DOGE faced structural limits, what's driving gold to all-time highs while Bitcoin stumbles, the real story behind tariffs and trade deficits, and why he believes the US might be approaching a collapse.
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Ray Dalio on the Five Forces That Make This a Historical Moment
You're not imagining it. This really is a moment of tremendous historical change. Various forces are all aligned right now and reshaping how the world operates. That's the view of Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Capital, the world's biggest hedge fund. While Odd Lots has been around for 10 years, Dalio ran Bridgewater for an extraordinary five decades, so he's the perfect person to get a big picture understanding of what's going on. He talks about how a mix of rising wealth inequality, the AI boom, a burgeoning national debt, and more, are changing the world. We also talk about lessons he learned from running Bridgewater, the importance of meditation, as well as his long-term skepticism about the pod shop hedge fund model.
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The Changing World Order: How Countries Go Broke - Ray Dalio - #976
Ray Dalio is the founder of Bridgewater Associates, billionaire investor, philanthropist and an author.
How do countries actually go broke? In a world of abundance, it’s easy to think the good times will last. But with global debt soaring, we may be nearing an unprecedented economic reckoning. History shows these cycles repeat; the question is, can we escape collapse and find a path to prosperity before it’s too late?
Expect to learn why Ray got interested in how and why countries go broke, how money and debt actually work, the 5 major forces that shaped history, how the debt cycle works to make the rich richer, how politics impact they global world order, what AI will do to disrupt the world as we know it, what most people get wrong about how countries actually fall apart, and much more…
Timestamps:
(0:00) Moving from Macro Investing to Predicting Currency Fluctuations
(8:00) The Five Big Forces
(15:35) How Does the Debt Cycle Work?
(22:39) What Does It Mean for a Country to Not Pay Its Debts?
(29:24) To What Extent Do Economic Cycles Affect Politics?
(38:32) Why are Our Policies So Push and Pull?
(43:29) We're On the Brink of an Economic Downturn
(48:08) How Can We Understand the External Geo-Political Order?
(53:26) How China’s Ascension Relates to the First Two World Orders
(57:16) What Role Does Active Nature Have in the Modern World?
(01:02:03) The Predicted Impact of AI
(01:08:25) Is Anyone Safe From AI?
(01:13:15) Are Financial Cycles Worse Than Kinetic Wars?
(01:21:03) Is Ray Onto Something?
(01:23:56) Find Out More About Ray
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Ray Dalio on the Coming Crisis in US Debt
Almost whichever way you measure it, the US has a lot of debt. And, with the Trump administration recently proposing a budget that would see US debt levels swell even further, it doesn't look like this issue is going away any time soon. In this episode, we speak with Ray Dalio, the billionaire founder of the hedge fund Bridgewater Associates and the author of the new book, How Countries Go Broke. We talk about how he thinks about debt cycles, the catalyst for when high levels of debt become an immediate problem, what a debt crisis actually looks like, and what the US needs to do to avoid a "heart attack" debt crisis within the next three years. We also speak about what investors should do in these scenarios, including Ray's thoughts on things like Bitcoin and gold. And, of course, we also speak about his role in helping create the Chicken McNugget.
Read more:
The Stories We Tell Ourselves About Bonds
‘Mar-a-Lago Accord’ Chatter Is Getting Wall Street’s Attention
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Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
(0:00) Ray Dalio joins Friedberg!
(0:50) The current US fiscal situation
(6:23) Breaking down "The Big Debt Cycle," a potential US debt spiral, and the impact on real wealth
(24:54) USD vs other currencies and assets, best hedges against the dollar
(33:20) Portfolio construction, how China increases risk for US AI companies, why this market reminds Ray of 1998-1999
(41:45) How the US can avoid a debt crisis
(53:29) DOGE, Trump, and AI's greatest risk
(1:05:31) Chances of conflict between the US and China
Follow the Besties:
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Read Part 1 of "How Countries Go Broke":
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Pre-order "How Countries Go Broke":
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Intro Music Credit:
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Intro Video Credit:
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Referenced in the show:
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-debt-to-gdp
https://www.crfb.org/press-releases/treasury-confirms-calendar-year-2024-deficit-tops-20-trillion
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61172
https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/2bstne1l09npgdk1s5yww/corner-office/ray-dalio-makes-his-exit-from-bridgewater
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL
https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/outlook/economic-outlook/fed-meeting-september-2024
https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertfarrington/2024/11/08/fed-cut-interest-rates-so-why-do-mortgage-rates-keep-climbing
https://www.chathamfinancial.com/insights/fomc-recap-december-2024
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/14/a-global-bond-sell-off-is-deepening-as-hopes-for-multiple-fed-rate-cuts-fizzle.html
Bridgewater's Greg Jensen on AI, Inflation and What Markets Are Getting Wrong
Every industry is trying to figure out just how AI or Large Language Models can be used to do business. But Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest hedge fund, has already been at it for a long time. For years, it has explored AI and adjacent technologies in order to analyze data, test theories, develop novel investment strategies and help its employees make better decisions. But how does it actually use the tech in practice? And what's next going forward? On this episode, we speak with co-CIO Greg Jensen about both the possibilities and limitations of these advances. We also discuss markets and macro, and why he believes that investors are still too optimistic about the Federal Reserve's ability to get inflation back to target.
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Karen Karniol-Tambour - Macro Headwinds vs. Tech Tailwinds - [Invest Like the Best, EP.329]
Today’s conversation was recorded during last week’s Sohn Conference. I sat down with Karen Karniol-Tambour, Co-CIO at Bridgewater Associates. I hosted Karen on this show two years ago and if you listened to that, you’ll remember she has a rare skill for distilling and analysing complex macro topics. Today’s environment is strikingly different to the summer of 2021 so this is a timely conversation on the big macro variables that are on investors’ minds today. Please enjoy my conversation with Karen Karniol-Tambour.
Sohn 2023 | Kiril Sokoloff in conversation with Stanley Druckenmiller
Sohn 2023 | Patrick Collison in conversation Sam Altman
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Founders Episode 288 - Ralph Lauren
For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page here.
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Show Notes
(00:03:05) - (First question) - Her take on AI and watching this new technology unfold
(00:06:39) - Things she’s watching in the AI space that might lead to taking portfolio action
(00:09:19) - Potentially using AI to inform or make investment decisions
(00:10:17) - Why might it be the case that no one can use AI for investing in macro markets
(00:11:14) - What she’d write about regarding the general state of capital markets today
(00:13:46) - What pricing is telling us about market sentiment writ large
(00:15:47) - Thinking about portfolio positioning in light of the unattractive state of risk assets
(00:17:17) - Her perspectives on gold historically and today
(00:20:09) - Big long-term slow-moving macro variables that aren’t quite visible yet
(00:22:09) - The all-weather portfolio and building one in light of so much uncertainty
(00:24:38) - The rise of China, its growing power, and potential conflicts with the US
(00:28:01) - Monitoring for things like the banking crisis beneath the public narrative
(00:31:13) - Non-obvious variables that currently have her attention
(00:33:29) - “Overrated or underrated” rapid-fire questions
(00:36:04) - What it’s been like being the CIO of Bridgewater so far
Ray Dalio: How to embrace conflict
Want to improve any idea? Find someone who disagrees with it. This is something legendary investor Ray Dalio knows. But there’s a difference between constructive and destructive conflict — and Dalio is a master at spotting the difference. In constructive conflict, a team has a shared goal, whether or not they have differing opinions. And this is the key to success. Cameo appearances: Steve Horgan (USA Field Hockey Director of Umpiring), Daniel Amen (psychiatrist, founder of Amen Clinics).
Read a transcript of this episode: https://mastersofscale.com
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Ray Dalio (investor and hedge fund manager)
Ray Dalio (Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order) is a global macro-investor and author. Ray joins the Armchair Expert to discuss how the world's economy is driven by debt, how investors can study history to try to predict financial outcomes, and how new world orders can shape the rules for the rest of humanity. Ray and Dax talk about what equal opportunity actually looks like, how education is affecting the future of the economy, and how compromise is the key to creating a system that works for everyone. Ray explains the different types of wars, how ideologies now rule in the public space, and how meditation has helped him with painful experiences in his life.
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Bridgewater's Greg Jensen on Why Markets Have Further to Fall
Bridgewater's Greg Jensen on Why Markets Have Further to FallInflation is at its highest in four decades and the Federal Reserve is raising rates at the fastest pace since 2000. Inflation and a slowing economy are a toxic mix for markets, and in recent days we've seen both stocks and bonds hit hard. So how do you actually invest in this type of macro environment, or model big themes like supply chain disruption and deglobalization? On this episode, we speak with Greg Jensen, the co-chief investment officer of Bridgewater Associates, about how he's thinking about the risks of inflation and slower growth, what it all means for markets, and how Bridgewater is preparing for it. As he puts it, market prices are still too optimistic relative to the secular change that's taking place within them.
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Principles for Work and Life
In the face of great uncertainty, how do you make decisions? Can you really apply the lessons of the past to the present and the future, to navigate seemingly new situations and get what you want out of business and life? By deeply understanding cause-effect relationships -- clearly expressed, shared with others, overlaid with data, back-tested, modified -- you can build a set of principles for dealing with the realities of whatever situation you're in, observes Ray Dalio, in this episode from 2018 and in conversation with a16z's Alex Rampell and Sonal Chokshi,
Dalio's book Principles: Life and Work originated as an internal company document that was posted online years ago and has been shared widely since. His insights on how to create your own recipe book to draw upon in moments of great change is as relevant as ever. The conversation covers everything from the differences between private and public investing, and between startups and big companies -- to questions of getting timing right, how people, teams, organizations, and even nation-states can evolve through principles like "believability-weighted idea meritocracies," and more.
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Economic Cycles, Investing in Education, and Working Through Grief — with Ray Dalio
Ray Dalio, founder and co-chief investment officer of Bridgewater Associates, joins Scott to discuss his latest book, “Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail.” Ray also shares his thoughts on where political leaders should focus their attention, as well as how he has dealt with profound loss.
Scott opens with his thoughts on how universities need to drastically change the way they expand enrollment seats.
Algebra of Happiness: embrace your feelings.
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#251 – Ray Dalio: Money, Power, and the Collapse of Empires
Ray Dalio is an investor, author, and founder of Bridgewater Associates. Please support this podcast by checking out our sponsors:
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OUTLINE:
Here’s the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time.
(00:00) – Introduction
(08:14) – Money or power
(11:50) – Big Cycle
(31:43) – Collapse of the American Empire
(40:10) – War
(43:18) – Xi Jinping
(49:21) – Importance of freedoms
(55:24) – Democracy’s vulnerability
(58:49) – Communism’s vulnerability
(1:05:50) – Vladimir Putin
(1:09:55) – Understanding China
(1:17:23) – Henry Kissinger
(1:27:44) – Elon Musk and Dogecoin
(1:29:41) – How to take notes
(1:33:24) – Advice for young people
(1:37:30) – Hope for humanity
Ray Dalio: How to embrace conflict
Want to improve any idea? Find someone who disagrees with it. This is something legendary investor Ray Dalio knows. But there’s a difference between constructive and destructive conflict – and Dalio is a master at spotting the difference. In constructive conflict, a team has a shared goal, whether or not they have differing opinions. And this is the key to success. Cameo appearances: Steve Horgan (USA Field Hockey Director of Umpiring), Daniel Amen (psychiatrist, founder of Amen Clinics).
Read a transcript of this episode: https://mastersofscale.com
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Karen Karniol-Tambour - All Things Macro - [Invest Like the Best, EP. 237]
My guest today is Karen Karniol-Tambour, Partner and Co-CIO for Sustainability at Bridgewater Associates. You will quickly understand why Ray Dalio described Karen as a “vacuum cleaner of learning” - our conversation covered a variety of market themes, and Karen goes deep on each of them. We touch on inflation, monetary policy, currencies, retail investors, ESG, and how each of these levers has become more important for investors to understand. Karen has a rare skill for making complex ideas seem simple, and I love the frameworks she uses to deconstruct big, important issues. She does such a good job of explaining what’s changed, why it matters, and what to do about it. I hope you enjoy my great conversation with Karen Karniol-Tambour.
For the full show notes, transcript, and links to the best content to learn more, check out the episode page here.
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Show Notes
[00:03:39] - [First question] - How Bridgewater invests and the experiences that led her there
[00:06:47] - What working with Daniel Kahneman felt like and learning his perspective
[00:08:09] - An example of holding herself to accumulating and stress testing data
[00:10:17] - Important variables to consider when seeking returns in large-scale bets
[00:14:18] - What we should be thinking about in terms of inflation as we look to the future
[00:20:07] - How she thinks about inflation and how she defines it
[00:22:57] - Relevant asset classes that can protect or help diversify against inflation
[00:26:14] - What still largely confuses her about inflation and its many facets
[00:28:05] - Her philosophy and model for understanding the system of currency
[00:33:21] - How investors should think about the US dollar
[00:35:50] - Whether or not owning an unhedged global equity index gives you currency exposure
[00:37:07] - The fundamental nature of equity markets and household balance sheets
[00:41:37] - Ways the growing wave of retail investors will impact prices and returns
[00:43:53] - How she’s evolved her valuation approach given our new investor landscape
[00:45:43] - The good and bad roles ESG might play for investors going forward
[00:50:36] - Potential concerns around the growing trend of ESG writ large
[00:53:51] - Thoughts on the 60/40 portfolio and whether or not it’s still worth using
[00:55:32] - Designing a default diversified portfolio in light of markets today
[00:57:45] - Aspects of the global market economy today people should be talking about more
[01:01:15] - Ways she investigates a new topic and how it has evolved over time
[01:04:14] - Variables that matter in investment teams and company cultures
[01:06:53] - How she would approach cryptocurrency and what’s interesting about them
[01:09:08] - A rosey and gloomy take of what the world could look like in a decade
[01:12:37] - The kindest thing that anyone has ever done for her
An executive at Bridgewater, the world's largest hedge fund, unpacks bitcoin's role in the macro picture
Bridgewater, the world's largest hedge fund, isn't convinced by the bitcoin narrative yet, but it's listening.
On this week's episode of The Scoop, Bridgewater's director of portfolio strategy Jim Haskel said he's not surprised by the growing institutional interest.
Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio previously said he didn't see bitcoin's merits as a currency, but he amended his statements in a newsletter published earlier this year.
"I believe Bitcoin is one hell of an invention," Dalio wrote at the time.
Haskel said Bridgewater remains skeptical but also recognizes bitcoin's "fantastic" attributes. Though the cryptocurrency's price remains volatile and lacks some of the characteristics of traditional wealth from Bridgewater's point of view, Haskel says he sees potential.
"What I would say is that we certainly have not rejected it as a potential store hold of wealth," Haskel remarked. "We just wouldn’t use it in big size yet."
On this week's episode, Haskell talked about Bridgewater's unfolding bitcoin strategy as well as:
If it's still possible for funds to have access to unsustainable levels of leverage
Whether the inflation alarmists are justified
What the impact of continued recovery will be on assets and how that affects alternative allocations
How Bridgewater started considering bitcoin as an inflation hedge.
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Ray Dalio: Principles, the Economic Machine, Artificial Intelligence & the Arc of Life
Ray Dalio is the founder, Co-Chairman and Co-Chief Investment Officer of Bridgewater Associates, one of the world’s largest and most successful investment firms that is famous for the principles of radical truth and transparency that underlie its culture. Ray is one of the wealthiest people in the world, with ideas that extend far beyond the specifics of how he made that wealth. His ideas, applicable to everyone, are brilliantly summarized in his book Principles.
This conversation is part of the Artificial Intelligence podcast. If you would like to get more information about this podcast go to https://lexfridman.com/ai or connect with @lexfridman on Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook, Medium, or YouTube where you can watch the video versions of these conversations. If you enjoy the podcast, please rate it 5 stars on Apple Podcasts or support it on Patreon.
This episode is presented by Cash App. Download it (App Store, Google Play), use code “LexPodcast”.
Here’s the outline of the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time.
00:00 – Introduction
02:56 – Doing something that’s never been done before
08:39 – Shapers
13:28 – A Players
15:09 – Confidence and disagreement
17:10 – Don’t confuse dilusion with not knowing
24:38 – Idea meritocracy
27:39 – Is credit good for society?
32:59 – What is money?
37:13 – Bitcoin and digital currency
41:01 – The economic machine is amazing
46:24 – Principle for using AI
58:55 – Human irrationality
1:01:31 – Call for adventure at the edge of principles
1:03:26 – The line between madness and genius
1:04:30 – Automation
1:07:28 – American dream
1:14:02 – Can money buy happiness?
1:19:48 – Work-life balance and the arc of life
1:28:01 – Meaning of life
Ray Dalio: How to embrace conflict
Want to improve any idea? Find someone who disagrees with it. This is something legendary investor Ray Dalio knows. But there’s a difference between constructive and destructive conflict – and Dalio is a master at spotting the difference. In constructive conflict, a team has a shared goal, whether or not they have differing opinions. And this is the key to success. Cameo appearances: Steve Horgan (USA Field Hockey Director of Umpiring), Daniel Amen (psychiatrist, founder of Amen Clinics).
Ray's latest book, Principles for Success, is out now.
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a16z Podcast: Principles and Algorithms for Work and Life
with Ray Dalio (@raydalio), Alex Rampell (@arampell), and Sonal Chokshi (@smc90)
Can one really apply the lessons of history and of the past to the present and the future, as a way to get what they want out of life? By deeply understanding cause-effect relationships -- clearly expressed, shared with others, overlaid with data, back-tested, modified -- you can build a set of principles/algorithms/recipes for dealing with the realities of your life, observes Ray Dalio in this episode of the a16z Podcast (in conversation with a16z general partner Alex Rampell and Sonal Chokshi). Dalio's book Principles: Life and Work originated as an internal company document that was posted online years ago and has been shared widely since; he is the founder, chairman, and co-chief investment officer of Bridgewater Associates -- one of the top five private companies in the U.S., which manages over $150 billion and has made more money for clients than any other hedge fund.
"Is this is a duck, how do I deal with ducks; or this is a species I haven't seen before, and how do I deal with that?" In other words, when you see a particular thing coming over and over again, you can know what you're seeing and how to act on it. But what about timing, which is a huge factor when it comes to making various bets and decisions in both work and life? And what if a phenomenon is entirely new and hasn't been seen before (is there such a thing), and also, how do we avoid an overly pattern-matching/ pattern-recognition trap? Having a framework can still help -- even if the phenomena don't have a clear set of rules like chess -- because we can understand why things might be different. Knowing that is important, argues Dalio.
The conversation covers everything from the differences between private and public investing, and between startups and big companies -- to how people, teams, organizations, and even nation-states can evolve through principles like "believability-weighted idea meritocracies" and more. But... can adults really change? What are the differences between the two you's, and between closed-minded and open-minded people, and how do they play out across the roles of a "teacher", "student", or "peer" in organizations of varying scale? It's not as obvious as you might think, and knowing how you know -- and what we don't know -- can help.
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#264: Ray Dalio, The Steve Jobs of Investing
Ray Dalio (@raydalio) grew up a middle-class kid from Long Island. He started his investment company Bridgewater Associates out of a two-bedroom apartment at age 26, and it now has roughly $160 billion in assets under management. Over 42 years, he has built Bridgewater into what Fortune considers the fifth most important private company in the U.S. Along the way, Dalio became one the 100 most influential people in the world (according to Time) and one of the 100 wealthiest people in the world (according to Forbes). Because of his unique investment principles that have changed industries, aiCIO Magazine called him "the Steve Jobs of investing." Ray believes his success is the result of principles he's learned, codified, and applied to his life and business. Those principles are detailed in his new book Principles: Life and Work. In this interview, we cover a lot, including: How Ray thinks about investment decisions, how he thinks about correlation, etc. The three books he would give to every graduating high school or college senior How he might assess cryptocurrency And much, much more... Enjoy! This podcast is brought to you by Four Sigmatic. I reached out to these Finnish entrepreneurs after a very talented acrobat introduced me to one of their products, which blew my mind (in the best way possible). It is mushroom coffee featuring chaga. It tastes like coffee, but there are only 40 milligrams of caffeine, so it has less than half of what you would find in a regular cup of coffee. I do not get any jitters, acid reflux, or any type of stomach burn. It put me on fire for an entire day, and I only had half of the packet. People are always asking me what I use for cognitive enhancement right now -- this is the answer. You can try it right now by going to foursigmatic.com/tim and using the code Tim to get 20 percent off your first order. If you are in the experimental mindset, I do not think you'll be disappointed. This podcast is brought to you by Athletic Greens. I get asked all the time, "If you could only use one supplement, what would it be?" My answer is, inevitably, Athletic Greens. It is my all-in-one nutritional insurance. I recommended it in The 4-Hour Body and did not get paid to do so. As a listener of The Tim Ferriss Show, you'll get 30 percent off your first order at AthleticGreens.com/Tim. Show notes and links for this episode can be found at tim.blog/podcast.
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How to build a company where the best ideas win | Ray Dalio
What if you knew what your coworkers really thought about you and what they were really like? Ray Dalio makes the business case for using radical transparency and algorithmic decision-making to create an idea meritocracy where people can speak up and say what they really think -- even calling out the boss is fair game. Learn more about how these strategies helped Dalio create one of the world's most successful hedge funds and how you might harness the power of data-driven group decision-making.
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