Karen Karniol-Tambour

Today’s conversation was recorded during last week’s Sohn Conference. I sat down with Karen Karniol-Tambour, Co-CIO at Bridgewater Associates. I hosted Karen on this show two years ago and if you listened to that, you’ll remember she has a rare skill for distilling and analysing complex macro topics. Today’s environment is strikingly different to the summer of 2021 so this is a timely conversation on the big macro variables that are on investors’ minds today. Please enjoy my conversation with Karen Karniol-Tambour. Sohn 2023 | Kiril Sokoloff in conversation with Stanley Druckenmiller Sohn 2023 | Patrick Collison in conversation Sam Altman Listen to Founders Podcast Founders Episode 136 - Estee Lauder Founders Episode 288 - Ralph Lauren For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page here. ----- This episode is brought to you by Tegus, the modern research platform for leading investors. Stretch your research budget with flexible expert calls you can trust. At a fraction of the cost of traditional expert networks, Tegus customers pay only what an expert charges – with zero markups and no confusing call credits – netting an average 70% savings. Don’t want to conduct a full hour call? Tegus offers the ability to schedule 30-minutes, an offer you won’t find anywhere else. And they don’t stop there. With white-glove custom sourcing for every project and robust compliance measures, including a dedicated 50+ analyst team that vets every call transcript, Tegus ensures your privacy and protection. As the industry innovator for qualitative insights, Tegus helps you find the right experts you need at a quality and speed that can’t be matched. For a limited time, as a listener, you can trial Tegus for free by visiting tegus.co/patrick. ----- Invest Like the Best is a property of Colossus, LLC. For more episodes of Invest Like the Best, visit joincolossus.com/episodes.  Past guests include Tobi Lutke, Kevin Systrom, Mike Krieger, John Collison, Kat Cole, Marc Andreessen, Matthew Ball, Bill Gurley, Anu Hariharan, Ben Thompson, and many more. Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here. Follow us on Twitter: @patrick_oshag | @JoinColossus Show Notes (00:03:05) - (First question) - Her take on AI and watching this new technology unfold (00:06:39) - Things she’s watching in the AI space that might lead to taking portfolio action  (00:09:19) - Potentially using AI to inform or make investment decisions  (00:10:17) - Why might it be the case that no one can use AI for investing in macro markets (00:11:14) - What she’d write about regarding the general state of capital markets today (00:13:46) - What pricing is telling us about market sentiment writ large (00:15:47) - Thinking about portfolio positioning in light of the unattractive state of risk assets (00:17:17) - Her perspectives on gold historically and today  (00:20:09) - Big long-term slow-moving macro variables that aren’t quite visible yet  (00:22:09) - The all-weather portfolio and building one in light of so much uncertainty  (00:24:38) - The rise of China, its growing power, and potential conflicts with the US  (00:28:01) - Monitoring for things like the banking crisis beneath the public narrative  (00:31:13) - Non-obvious variables that currently have her attention  (00:33:29) - “Overrated or underrated” rapid-fire questions (00:36:04) - What it’s been like being the CIO of Bridgewater so far

Karen Karniol-Tambour

Co-CIO

Bridgewater Associates

My guest today is Karen Karniol-Tambour, Partner and Co-CIO for Sustainability at Bridgewater Associates. You will quickly understand why Ray Dalio described Karen as a “vacuum cleaner of learning” - our conversation covered a variety of market themes, and Karen goes deep on each of them. We touch on inflation, monetary policy, currencies, retail investors, ESG, and how each of these levers has become more important for investors to understand. Karen has a rare skill for making complex ideas seem simple, and I love the frameworks she uses to deconstruct big, important issues. She does such a good job of explaining what’s changed, why it matters, and what to do about it. I hope you enjoy my great conversation with Karen Karniol-Tambour.   For the full show notes, transcript, and links to the best content to learn more, check out the episode page here. ------ Invest Like the Best is a property of Colossus, Inc. For more episodes of Invest Like the Best, visit joincolossus.com/episodes.    Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here.   Follow us on Twitter: @patrick_oshag | @JoinColossus   Show Notes [00:03:39] - [First question] - How Bridgewater invests and the experiences that led her there [00:06:47] - What working with Daniel Kahneman felt like and learning his perspective [00:08:09] - An example of holding herself to accumulating and stress testing data [00:10:17] - Important variables to consider when seeking returns in large-scale bets [00:14:18] - What we should be thinking about in terms of inflation as we look to the future [00:20:07] - How she thinks about inflation and how she defines it [00:22:57] - Relevant asset classes that can protect or help diversify against inflation [00:26:14] - What still largely confuses her about inflation and its many facets [00:28:05] - Her philosophy and model for understanding the system of currency [00:33:21] - How investors should think about the US dollar  [00:35:50] - Whether or not owning an unhedged global equity index gives you currency exposure [00:37:07] - The fundamental nature of equity markets and household balance sheets [00:41:37] - Ways the growing wave of retail investors will impact prices and returns  [00:43:53] - How she’s evolved her valuation approach given our new investor landscape [00:45:43] - The good and bad roles ESG might play for investors going forward [00:50:36] - Potential concerns around the growing trend of ESG writ large [00:53:51] - Thoughts on the 60/40 portfolio and whether or not it’s still worth using [00:55:32] - Designing a default diversified portfolio in light of markets today [00:57:45] - Aspects of the global market economy today people should be talking about more [01:01:15] - Ways she investigates a new topic and how it has evolved over time [01:04:14] - Variables that matter in investment teams and company cultures [01:06:53] - How she would approach cryptocurrency and what’s interesting about them [01:09:08] - A rosey and gloomy take of what the world could look like in a decade [01:12:37] - The kindest thing that anyone has ever done for her

Karen Karniol-Tambour

Co-CIO

Bridgewater Associates