10 Crypto Predictions for 2026: $1M BTC, Wall Street Onchain & ETF Takeover | Matt Hougan & Ryan Rasmussen from Bitwise
Bitwise’s Matt Hougan and Ryan Rasmussen return with 10 big predictions for 2026.
From the case for $1M BTC (and why the classic four-year cycle may be dead) to a world where ETFs soak up more than 100% of new BTC/ETH/SOL supply.
We get into Bitcoin volatility vs. mega-cap tech, crypto equities vs. tech equities, and why Polymarket could smash past its 2024 election-era highs.
Plus: stablecoins as an “escape valve” that emerging economies may blame for currency stress, on-chain also known as “ETFs 2.0,” and how the Clarity Act could be the starter’s gun for ETH and SOL to run.
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TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Last Year Predictions
13:12 1. Bitcoin Breaks 4-Year Cycle
16:19 2. BTC Less Volatile Than NVDA
22:09 3. ETFs Purchasing New Supply of Crypto
30:02 4. Crypto Equities Outperforming Equities
37:23 5. Prediction Markets All-Time Highs
42:50 6. Stablecons Destabilizing Currencies
48:16 7. Onchain Vaults Doubling in AUM
52:56 8. Clarity Act Triggering ETH & Sol All-Time Highs
56:40 9. Ivy League Endowments Investing in Crypto
58:49 10. 100+ Crypto ETPs Launching
1:01:14 Bitwise Announcement
1:04:08 Bonus. Bitcoin Equity Correlation Falling
1:07:29 Progress in 2025
1:10:48 Cross-Generational Wealth Transfer?
1:13:02 Closing Thoughts & Disclaimers
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RESOURCES
Matt Hougan
https://x.com/Matt_Hougan
Ryan Rasmussen
https://x.com/RasterlyRock
Bitwise
https://bitwiseinvestments.com/
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Not financial or tax advice. See our investment disclosures here:
https://www.bankless.com/disclosures
Will Bitcoin's New Phase Change It Forever? And Is the 4-Year Cycle Dead? - Ep. 974
The crypto sector has celebrated a lot of policy wins in 2025, but price wise, it has arguably been a year to forget.
In this episode of Unchained, Bitwise Head of Research Ryan Rasmussen and Arca Portfolio Manager David Nage join host Laura Shin to discuss the disappointing crypto markets and why their outlook on 2026 is more positive.
They also explained why Vanguard's crypto pivot is a huge deal, questioned whether Bitcoin could ever be unseated by privacy coins, and discussed why they don’t see the bubble in the DAT market hurting crypto.
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Guests:
Ryan Rasmussen, Head of Research at Bitwise
David Nage, Portfolio Manager at Arca
Previous appearance on Unchained:
The LayerZero-Wormhole Contest Shows How to Value a Crypto Business
Links:
Unchained:
Bitcoin Resets Above $90,000, but Can Bulls Keep the Momentum?
Bits + Bips: Vanguard’s Crypto U-Turn, Tether/MSTR FUD & Picking Future Winners
Bits + Bips: Why the Markets Now Have a Bullish Setup
Franklin Templeton Rolls Out First Tokenized Fund in Hong Kong
Why Every Company Will Have a Stablecoin — and Why One L2 Isn’t Enough
Grayscale Files to List Zcash ETF
What Ethereum Will Look Like When It Implements Its New Privacy Focus
Other relevant links:
Bank of America Broadens Access to Crypto Funds
SEC's Paul Atkins touts 'tokenization’ as key to modernizing US markets
Larry Fink and Rob Goldstein on how tokenization could transform finance
My Highest-Conviction Bet in Crypto
Stablecoin payments on Stripe cost 1.5% of the transaction amount. Credit card fees are as high as 3.5%. Less than half of the cost!
Bitcoin’s “Facebook Moment”
Timestamps:
🚀 00:00 Introduction
🤔 01:42 Is the four-year cycle dead?
💡 3:50 Why David says Bitcoin is having its “Facebook moment”
⚡️ 11:42 Why Ryan does not believe Bitcoin OGs are disillusioned
💥 14:43 Why David thinks liquidity may be returning to the market
❕️ 17:21 What is driving Vanguard and Bank of America's adoption of crypto
🚨 24:34 The importance of Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund's ETF transition
💡 28:30 Why BITW excludes memecoins, stablecoins and, wrapped tokens, etc.
🔮 31:15 What tokenization means for the future of finance
👀 35:56 What the future holds for digital asset treasuries
⚠️ 39:45 How unwinding of DATs could affect Bitcoin
🧏 41:11 What Stripe's 1.5% fees suggest about the future of stablecoin competition
📈 46:43 Why David says stablecoin adoption is similar to email
🤔 48:55 Could Bitcoin be toppled as the privacy meta rises?
🔮 56:45 Ryan and David share their 2026 crypto outlook
✴️ 1:02:01 Ryan’s 2026 Bitcoin price target
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Top 10 Crypto x AI Predictions for 2025 | Bitwise's Matt Hougan & Ryan Rasmussen
2024 was a breakout year for crypto, with Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana outperforming traditional assets and spot Bitcoin ETFs attracting $31.7 billion in record inflows. Coinbase surged toward S&P 500 inclusion, stablecoins doubled, and tokenized real-world assets began their rise. Nations embraced Bitcoin as a reserve asset, and AI-driven memecoins fueled fresh mania.
Bitwise calls 2024 a prelude to 2025—a year poised to redefine crypto’s place in global finance.
Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer, Matt Hougan and Head of Research, Ryan Rasmussen join us to share Bitwise’s top 10 2025 Predictions. Trust us anon, you don’t want to miss this.
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------ ✨ Mint the episode on Zora ✨ https://zora.co/collect/zora:0x0c294913a7596b427add7dcbd6d7bbfc7338d53f/110?referrer=0x077Fe9e96Aa9b20Bd36F1C6290f54F8717C5674E
------ TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro 5:19 Summarizing 2024 8:58 Bitcoin, Ethereum, & Solana 2025 Price Targets 21:40 2025 Bitcoin ETF Flows 27:20 Coinbase Surpasses Charles Schwab 32:13 Year of the Crypto IPO 38:01 AI Agent Memecoin Mania 47:39 Countries Holding Bitcoin 53:14 Coinbase S&P 500 & MicroStrategy Nasdaq-100 56:54 Crypto 401(k)s 1:02:48 Stablecoin Assets Double 1:05:26 RWAs Surpasses $50B 1:09:12 Bonus Prediction: 2029 Bitcoin Price 1:12:32 Closing & Disclaimers
------ RESOURCES
Bitwise 2025 Predictions https://bitwiseinvestments.com/crypto-market-insights/the-year-ahead-10-crypto-predictions-for-2025
Matt Hougan https://x.com/Matt_Hougan
Ryan Rasmussen https://x.com/RasterlyRock
------ Not financial or tax advice. See our investment disclosures here: https://www.bankless.com/disclosures
When Ethereum ETF? | Matt Hougan & Ryan Rasmussen of Bitwise
The Bitcoin ETF was a huge win for Crypto. What’s next? Will an Ethereum ETF be approved?
We brought Matt Hougan & Ryan Rasmussen of Bitwise to explore exactly that.
We go through what made the BTC ETF so successful, what we need to replicate the process for Ethereum and what comes after the ETH ETF.
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------ TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro 6:50 Bitcoin ETFs So Far 10:40 BTC ETF 2nd Acceleration 22:56 Crypto Default Allocation 26:31 Who’s Buying the BTC ETF? 28:59 Bitcoin vs Gold 36:46 When ETH ETF? 46:39 Forces at Play 53:25 ETH ETF Derivatives 58:38 ETH ETF Price Impact 1:02:10 ETH Narratives 1:08:31 What’s Next 1:12:02 Closing Thoughts
------ RESOURCES
Matt Hougan https://twitter.com/Matt_Hougan
Ryan Rasmussen https://twitter.com/RasterlyRock
Bitwise https://bitwiseinvestments.com/
------ Not financial or tax advice. This channel is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. This video is not tax advice. Talk to your accountant. Do your own research.
Disclosure. From time-to-time I may add links in this newsletter to products I use. I may receive commission if you make a purchase through one of these links. Additionally, the Bankless writers hold crypto assets.
See our investment disclosures here: https://www.bankless.com/disclosures