Twenty One Aims to Buy as Much Bitcoin as Possible. Can It Succeed? - Ep. 824
A new company called Twenty One is making waves—with a launch strategy that echoes Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), a cap table that includes Tether, SoftBank, and Cantor Fitzgerald, and a plan to acquire more Bitcoin than anyone else.
They’re starting with 42,000 BTC, worth nearly $4 billion, and they’ve hinted they’ll use convertible debt, equity raises, and other market mechanics to buy more.
But is this just a smarter MicroStrategy? Or a recipe for financial reflexivity gone wrong?
In this episode, Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at VanEck, digs into:
How the strategy works and why it could break
What happens if the stock trades below NAV
Why timing the market may be a feature, not a bug
And whether this signals a new phase in corporate Bitcoin exposure
Sigel also shares a bold idea for “BIT Bonds” that could let the U.S. Treasury issue Bitcoin-linked government debt. Could it work?
Plus, Unchained regulatory reporter Veronica Irwin talks about her scoop that we might see a crypto market structure bill as early as this week.
Visit our website for breaking news, analysis, op-eds, articles to learn about crypto, and much more: unchainedcrypto.com
Thank you to our sponsors!
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Guest
Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck
Links
Unchained:
Press Release: Tether, SoftBank Group, and Jack Mallers Launch Twenty One, a Bitcoin-native Company, Through a Business Combination With Cantor Equity Partners
The Block: Strike founder Jack Mallers to lead Tether-backed multi-billion bitcoin buying venture, Twenty One Capital
Ryan Watkins’ post on X
Jeff Park’s post on X
Timestamps:
👋 0:00 Introduction
🚀 4:59 How Twenty One plans to buy more bitcoin than anyone else
⚠️ 7:23 The key risks behind the reflexive BTC acquisition strategy
📈 12:38 Why more companies are copying the MicroStrategy playbook
👔 16:17 Jack Mallers’ role and why the CFO matters even more here
💥 17:55 Could one bad move blow these companies up?
💰 22:28 The types of investors this model attracts
⏳ 25:40 Did Twenty One launch at the worst possible time?
🤔 26:58 How to think about investing in BTC vs. these BTC-heavy stocks
🇺🇸 28:23 Unchained regulatory reporter Veronica Irwin on why a market structure bill might be on its way relatively soon
📰 35:31 Crypto News Recap
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ETH to $22k by 2030? | VanEck's Matthew Sigel
In this episode, David Hoffman is joined by Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, to unpack VanEck's groundbreaking ETH 2030 report. They discuss the $154,000 bull case, $22,000 base case, and $340 bear case for Ethereum, and the factors behind these predictions.
Matthew dives deep into the role of ETH ETFs and shares insights into ETH's evolving narrative in institutional portfolios. He also provides interesting analogies and comparisons between ETH and Web 2.0, explaining how VanEck will help traditional investors understand and invest in ETH using these narratives and real market data.
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------ TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro 7:16 VanEck Vibe Check ? 8:11 VanEck ETH 2030 Price Prediction Report 12:31 Last Year’s Report vs. Present Report 15:10 Ethereum Narrative For Retail 19:14 Pitching ETH To Customers 25:15 Parameters For Bear, Base & Bull? 28:49 What If ETH Reaches $154,000 32:31 ETH’s Most Bearish & Bullish Scenarios 33:40 Solana’s MEV vs. ETH’s MEV 41:28 BTC & ETH Allocation In Portfolio 45:59 Can Data Help Matthew Convince Customers? 49:30 $15B In ETF Assets 50:30 Closing & Disclosures
------ RESOURCES:
Matthew Sigel https://x.com/matthew_sigel
VanEck https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/ https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/digital-assets/matthew-sigel-eth-2030-price-target/
------ Not financial or tax advice. See our investment disclosures here: https://www.bankless.com/disclosures
How Small Bitcoin ETF Issuers Will Compete With the Likes of BlackRock - Ep. 595
Thursday was a momentous day in crypto as the first SEC-approved spot Bitcoin ETFs finally began trading after more than a decade of waiting, and by almost all accounts, it was a huge success, with more than $625 million in inflows on the first day of trading.
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan and VanEck head of digital assets research Matthew Sigel joined Unchained to discuss their approaches towards selling their products in the market, the challenges of competing with larger firms like BlackRock and Fidelity, the fee wars and where those are headed, the importance of specialist expertise in the crypto investment space, and how Bitcoin prices might react to all the new supply in the market.
Listen to the episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Fountain, Overcast, Podcast Addict, Pocket Casts, Pandora, Castbox, Google Podcasts, Amazon Music, or on your favorite podcast platform.
Show highlights:
Why Matt Hougan regards the first week as a massive success for Bitcoin
How Matthew Sigel emphasizes the costs and benefits ETFs offer to retail investors
The strategic marketing approaches of VanEck and Bitwise aligning with Bitcoin community values
The reasons for Bitwise's standout performance in the first days of trading, according to Matt
Whether the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs will reshape the broader ETF landscape
Matt's perspective on why some financial institutions resist Bitcoin, and their eventual openness to crypto
Whether the established players in finance feel threatened by the rise of open source technologies
Whether Gary Gensler’s statement after the approval is “totally crazy”
Why data for the various ETFs in the market should be analyzed on a weekly or monthly basis
The ongoing fee competition and how smaller entities can compete against giants like BlackRock and Fidelity
Grayscale's strategies to remain competitive with higher fees and the possibility of launching a new, low-fee ETF
How investment advisors might adapt to these new crypto products and the potential for mainstream adoption
Matthew’s predictions for when BTC investors, both short-term and long-term, will take profits
Why they are both closely monitoring Ethereum's performance and the prospects for a spot ether ETF in the market
Thank you to our sponsors!
Arbitrum Foundation
Popcorn Network
Guests:
Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management
Previous appearances on Unchained: Why a Spot Bitcoin ETF Will Probably Launch No Later Than January 10
Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck.
Links
Previous coverage of Unchained on spot Bitcoin ETFs:
Why Some Brokerage Firms Are Blocking Access to Spot Bitcoin ETFs
Why Spot Bitcoin ETFs Are Likely to Finally Start Trading on Thursday
Why the SEC May Want Cash Creation of Spot Bitcoin ETFs
Why It Looks Like BlackRock Could Win America’s First Spot Bitcoin ETF
Will a Spot Bitcoin ETF Finally Get Approved?
The 4 Factors That Will Determine Which Spot Bitcoin ETFs Win Market Share
How Much Money Will Flow Into Bitcoin ETFs? Here’s One Projection
Approval:
Unchained:
Spot Bitcoin ETFs Finally Receive SEC Seal of Approval
What Officials, ETF Issuers, and Others Are Saying About the SEC's Spot Bitcoin ETF Approvals
Laura Shin’s op-ed on Unchained: Why Spot Bitcoin ETFs Are (But Mostly Aren't) a Big Deal for Crypto
David Z. Morris’ op-ed on Unchained: The SEC’s Bumbling Bitcoin ETF Rollout Was Perfectly On-Brand
First days of trading
Unchained:
Spot Bitcoin ETFs Record $4.6 Billion First Day Trading Volume
Spot Bitcoin ETF Inflows Topped $625 Million on First Day in ‘Phenomenal’ Debut, Led by Bitwise
Vanguard Isn’t Allowing Customers to Buy Spot Bitcoin ETFs
Visit Unchained for more links and details
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VanEck’s 2024 Crypto Predictions with Matthew Sigel
In today’s episode, Matthew goes over VanEck’s 15 hottest 2024 crypto predictions report. Matthew Sigel is the Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck and has been since 2021.
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------ TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro 4:55 VanEck Predictions Origin 5:53 Recession & Spot BTC ETF 8:06 4th Bitcoin Halving 11:45 BTC All-Time High 14:15 Ethereum Flip Bitcoin? 18:38 Post-EIP-4844 L2 Capture 22:26 NFT Activity Rebound 24:33 Binance 28:05 Stablecoin Market Cap 32:16 DEX’s All-Time Highs 37:17 Bitcoin Yield? 40:49 Blockchain Gaming 43:20 Solana Outperforms ETH 47:15 DePin 53:05 Corporate Holding Upside 56:24 DeFi & KYC 1:03:31 Closing & Disclaimers
------ RESOURCES
Matthew Sigel https://twitter.com/matthew_sigel
VanEck Predictions Report https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/digital-assets/matthew-sigel-vanecks-15-crypto-predictions-for-2024/#us-recession-arrival-and-debut-of-spot-bitcoin-etfs
VanEck Solana Report https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/digital-assets/matthew-sigel-vanecks-base-bear-bull-case-solana-valuation-by-2030/
------ Not financial or tax advice. See our investment disclosures here: https://bankless.com/disclosures
"ETH and most DeFi is Trading Cheaper Than Web2 and With Better Growth:” VanEck's Matthew Sigel
In this week’s episode we speak with Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, an asset management firm overseeing $80 billion, which has shifted its focus heavily into crypto. They started out with investments almost exclusively in Bitcoin, but now, with Matthew on board, the firm is becoming increasingly bullish on Ethereum and DeFi.
Matthew has a very methodical way of analyzing cryptocurrencies, applying the same rigorous methods used in traditional finance, and so it becomes even more compelling to hear him make the case for Ethereum’s market cap growing to $2 trillion. He also believes even after this year’s bull run, Ethereum and most DeFi protocols are trading cheaper than Web 2.0 and with better growth.
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