‘Hard Fork’ Live, Part 3: Differing Visions of an A.I. Future
We’re back with our final installment from Hard Fork Live, recorded at the Yerba Buena Center for the Arts in San Francisco. In this episode, we’re joined by Sayash Kapoor and Daniel Kokotajlo to talk about their differing visions of A.I. transformation: why Sayash thinks A.I. will diffuse throughout society like a “normal” technology, and why Daniel thinks an unprecedented acceleration is just around the corner. Then we’re joined by George Ekas from Toborlife AI, along with his dancing robot Toby. Finally, the podcaster Dwarkesh Patel drops by, and we take a few questions from the live audience.
Guests:
Sayash Kapoor, an A.I. researcher at Princeton University and a co-author of the newsletter “AI as Normal Technology”
Daniel Kokotajlo, the executive director of the AI Futures Project and a co-author of “AI 2027”
George Ekas, the director of engineering at Toberlife AI
Dwarkesh Patel, a tech podcaster
Additional Reading:
This A.I. Forecast Predicts Storms Ahead
AI as Normal Technology
Common Ground Between AI 2027 & AI as Normal Technology
Subscribe today at nytimes.com/podcasts or on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. You can also subscribe via your favorite podcast app here https://www.nytimes.com/activate-access/audio?source=podcatcher. For more podcasts and narrated articles, download The New York Times app at nytimes.com/app.
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Dwarkesh and Noah Smith on AGI and the Economy
In this episode, Erik Torenberg is joined in the studio by Dwarkesh Patel and Noah Smith to explore one of the biggest questions in tech: what exactly is artificial general intelligence (AGI), and how close are we to achieving it?
They break down:
Competing definitions of AGI — economic vs. cognitive vs. “godlike”
Why reasoning alone isn’t enough — and what capabilities models still lack
The debate over substitution vs. complementarity between AI and human labor
What an AI-saturated economy might look like — from growth projections to UBI, sovereign wealth funds, and galaxy-colonizing robots
How AGI could reshape global power, geopolitics, and the future of work
Along the way, they tackle failed predictions, surprising AI limitations, and the philosophical and economic consequences of building machines that think, and perhaps one day, act, like us.
Timecodes:
0:00 Intro
0:33 Defining AGI and General Intelligence
2:38 Human and AI Capabilities Compared
7:00 AI Replacing Jobs and Shifting Employment
15:00 Economic Growth Trajectories After AGI
17:15 Consumer Demand in an AI-Driven Economy
31:00 Redistribution, UBI, and the Future of Income
31:58 Human Roles and the Evolving Meaning of Work
41:21 Technology, Society, and the Human Future
45:43 AGI Timelines and Forecasting Horizons
54:04 The Challenge of Predicting AI's Path
57:37 Nationalization, Geopolitics, and the Global AI Race
1:07:10 Brand and Network Effects in AI Dominance
1:09:31 Final Thoughts
Resources:
Find Dwarkesh on X: https://x.com/dwarkesh_sp
Find Dwarkesh on YT: https://www.youtube.com/c/DwarkeshPatel
Subscribe to Dwarkesh’s Substack: https://www.dwarkesh.com/
Find Noah on X: https://x.com/noahpinion
Subscribe to Noah’s Substack: https://www.noahpinion.blog/
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Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.
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Find a16z on LinkedIn
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Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.
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LIMITLESS - Dwarkesh Patel: The Scaling Era of AI is Here
Is intelligence just compute plus data? And if so... what happens next?
In this episode, Dwarkesh Patel, host of one of the most respected AI podcasts and author of “The Scaling Era”, joins us to break down the exponential rise of artificial intelligence. We explore how scaling laws became the engine behind modern models, why AI still can’t learn on the job, and whether we’re truly on the brink of AGI.
From coding to consciousness, from geopolitics to governance, Dwarkesh shares a grounded but urgent perspective on what it means to live through the transition and how we might prepare for what’s coming.
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TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro
6:59 What Is the Scaling Era?
9:31 Compute + Data = Intelligence?
15:08 Are We Building God?
17:57 The Catalyst: Discovering the Scaling Laws
20:54 Model Capabilities
24:35 Why Coding Is the AI Frontier
31:43 What AIs Still Can’t Do
36:26 AI Isn’t Around the Corner
46:01 Is AI Really Smart?
50:54 Inside the Black Box
54:46 AI Safety and Alignment
1:03:49 Who Controls the Models?
1:08:16 Swiss Cheese Safety & Liberal AI
1:19:30 Scaling Inputs: Energy, Compute, Data
1:26:40 Jobs, Growth & the Intelligence Curse
1:32:07 Why 60% AGI by 2040?
1:36:14 Dwarkesh’s Personal View
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RESOURCES
Dwarkesh Patel
https://x.com/dwarkesh_sp
Dwarkesh’s Book
https://www.amazon.com/Scaling-Era-Oral-History-2019-2025/dp/1953953557
Dwarkesh’s Podcast
https://www.dwarkesh.com/
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Not financial or tax advice. See our investment disclosures here:
https://www.bankless.com/disclosures
Dwarkesh Patel: AI Continuous Improvement, Intelligence Explosion, Memory, Frontier Lab Competition
Dwarkesh Patel is the host of the Dwarkesh Podcast. He joins Big Technology Podcast to discuss the frontiers of AI research, sharing why his timeline for AGI is a bit longer than the most enthusiastic researchers. Tune in for a candid discussion of the limitations of current methods, why continuous AI improvement might help the technology reach AGI, and what an intelligence explosion looks like. We also cover the race between AI labs, the dangers of AI deception, and AI sycophancy. Tune in for a deep discussion about the state of artificial intelligence, and where it’s going.
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The Tech Behind Signalgate + Dwarkesh Patel's "Scaling Era" + Is A.I. Making Our Listeners Dumb?
This week, we dig into the group chat that’s rocking the Trump administration and talk about why turning to Signal to plan military operations probably isn’t a great idea. Then, we’re joined by the podcaster Dwarkesh Patel to discuss his new book “The Scaling Era,” and whether he’s still optimistic about the broad benefits of A.I. And finally, a couple weeks ago we asked whether A.I. was making you dumber. Now we hear your takes.
Guest:
Dwarkesh Patel, tech podcaster and author of “The Scaling Era: An Oral History of A.I., 2019-2025”
Additional Reading:
The Trump Administration Accidentally Texted Me Its War Plans
Signal Chat Leak Angers U.S. Military Pilots
Is A.I. Making Us Dumb?
We want to hear from you. Email us at hardfork@nytimes.com. Find “Hard Fork” on YouTube and TikTok.
Subscribe today at nytimes.com/podcasts or on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. You can also subscribe via your favorite podcast app here https://www.nytimes.com/activate-access/audio?source=podcatcher. For more podcasts and narrated articles, download The New York Times app at nytimes.com/app.
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AI Scaling, Alignment, and the Path to Superintelligence — With Dwarkesh Patel
Dwarkesh Patel is the host of the Dwarkesh Podcast, where he's interviewed Mark Zuckerberg, Ilya Sustkever, Dario Amodei, and more AI leaders. Patel joins Big Technology to discuss the current state and future trajectory of AI development, including the potential for artificial general intelligence (AGI) and superintelligence. Tune in to hear Patel's insights on key issues like AI scaling, alignment, safety, and governance, as well as his perspective on the competitive landscape of the AI industry. We also cover the influence of the effective altruism movement on Patel's thinking, his podcast strategy, and the challenges and opportunities ahead as AI systems become more advanced. Listen for a wide-ranging and insightful conversation that grapples with some of the most important questions of our technological age.
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Twitter funding secured, Boring Co. raises $675M, Amazon's $1B VC fund, Ackman's $400M loss + The Lunar Society: Dwarkesh Patel | E1441
First Jason and Molly do four rapid news stories: Elon securing funding for the Twitter buyout (03:20), Bill Ackman’s $430M loss on Netflix (11:48), The Boring Company's $675M raise (18:47), Amazon’s $1B Industrial Innovation fund (28:56). Then, Producer Rachel interviews Dwarkesh Patel of The Lunar Society Podcast (37:12), he's a recent computer science graduate and one of the 42 people Jeff Bezos follows on Twitter!
(00:00) Jason and Molly intro today's show
(03:20) Elon secures funding
(09:59) Intercom - Get advanced Intercom features and Early Stage Academy at a 95% discount https://www.intercom.com/early-stage
(11:24) A little more on Elon solving the bot problem
(11:48) Ackman’s $430M loss
(18:47) Boring Co’s $675M raise
(23:17) Microsoft for Startups Hub - Apply in 5 minutes, no funding required, sign up at http://aka.ms/thisweekinstartups
(24:35) The grand vision of The Boring Co.
(28:56) Amazon’s $1B fund
(32:51) Thorne - Personalized, scientific wellness. Go to https://Thorne.com/u/TWIST
(34:15) Introducing the OK Boomer Segment
(37:12) Dwarkesh Patel of The Lunar Society Podcast
Check out The Lunar Society: https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/
Follow Dwarkesh: https://twitter.com/dwarkesh_sp
FOLLOW Jason: https://linktr.ee/calacanis
FOLLOW Molly: https://twitter.com/mollywood
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