Noahpinion

Commentator and Author

Dwarkesh Podcast TPThe Lunar Society Podcast

The a16z Show/Aug 4, 2025/1h 1m

Dwarkesh and Noah Smith on AGI and the Economy

In this episode, Erik Torenberg is joined in the studio by Dwarkesh Patel and Noah Smith to explore one of the biggest questions in tech: what exactly is artificial general intelligence (AGI), and how close are we to achieving it? They break down: Competing definitions of AGI — economic vs. cognitive vs. “godlike” Why reasoning alone isn’t enough — and what capabilities models still lack The debate over substitution vs. complementarity between AI and human labor What an AI-saturated economy might look like — from growth projections to UBI, sovereign wealth funds, and galaxy-colonizing robots How AGI could reshape global power, geopolitics, and the future of work Along the way, they tackle failed predictions, surprising AI limitations, and the philosophical and economic consequences of building machines that think, and perhaps one day, act, like us. Timecodes: 0:00 Intro 0:33 Defining AGI and General Intelligence 2:38 Human and AI Capabilities Compared 7:00 AI Replacing Jobs and Shifting Employment 15:00 Economic Growth Trajectories After AGI 17:15 Consumer Demand in an AI-Driven Economy 31:00 Redistribution, UBI, and the Future of Income 31:58 Human Roles and the Evolving Meaning of Work 41:21 Technology, Society, and the Human Future 45:43 AGI Timelines and Forecasting Horizons 54:04 The Challenge of Predicting AI's Path 57:37 Nationalization, Geopolitics, and the Global AI Race 1:07:10 Brand and Network Effects in AI Dominance 1:09:31 Final Thoughts Resources: Find Dwarkesh on X: https://x.com/dwarkesh_sp Find Dwarkesh on YT: https://www.youtube.com/c/DwarkeshPatel Subscribe to Dwarkesh’s Substack: https://www.dwarkesh.com/ Find Noah on X: https://x.com/noahpinion Subscribe to Noah’s Substack: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ Stay Updated: Let us know what you think: https://ratethispodcast.com/a16z Find a16z on Twitter: https://twitter.com/a16z Find a16z on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16z Subscribe on your favorite podcast app: https://a16z.simplecast.com/ Follow our host: https://x.com/eriktorenberg Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures. Stay Updated: Find a16z on YouTube: YouTube Find a16z on X Find a16z on LinkedIn Listen to the a16z Show on Spotify Listen to the a16z Show on Apple Podcasts Follow our host: https://twitter.com/eriktorenberg Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Dwarkesh Patel

Podcast Host and Writer

Commentator and Author

Big Technology Podcast/Jul 2, 2025/56m

Is AI Really Taking Our Jobs? — With Noah Smith

Noah Smith is a star economics writer behind the “Noahpinion” blog and co-host of the Econ 102 podcast. Smith joins Big Technology to discuss whether generative AI is actually boosting productivity or still waiting for its “electricity moment.” Tune in to hear his contrarian take on the so-called AI jobs apocalypse and how businesses will need to reorganize before the gains show up in earnings. We also cover immigration crackdowns, tariff uncertainty, wage-inequality myths, and how China’s military buildup reshapes economic strategy. Hit play for a sharp, no-hype dive into AI, economics, and geopolitics. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Commentator and Author

"The Cognitive Revolution" | AI Builders, Researchers, and Live Player Analysis/Mar 1, 2025/1h 7m

US-China Relations: History, Culture, and AI Competition, with Noah Smith, from Econ 102

In this episode, the host Nathan Labenz and economist Noah Smith delve into the complexities of U.S.-China relations, the motivations behind the United States' export controls and the broader geopolitical tensions. The discussion covers the perceived threats posed by China's technological advancements, especially in AI, and the implications for global stability. The conversation includes an analysis of economic decoupling, military deterrence, and the historical context of U.S.-China cooperation. The discussion also explores the role of misinformation, societal destabilization, and strategic military balance. The episode concludes with insights into the future direction of U.S.-China interactions and potential pathways for stabilizing the relationship. SPONSORS: SafeBase: SafeBase is the leading trust-centered platform for enterprise security. Streamline workflows, automate questionnaire responses, and integrate with tools like Slack and Salesforce to eliminate friction in the review process. With rich analytics and customizable settings, SafeBase scales to complex use cases while showcasing security's impact on deal acceleration. Trusted by companies like OpenAI, SafeBase ensures value in just 16 days post-launch. Learn more at https://safebase.io/podcast Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI): Oracle's next-generation cloud platform delivers blazing-fast AI and ML performance with 50% less for compute and 80% less for outbound networking compared to other cloud providers. OCI powers industry leaders like Vodafone and Thomson Reuters with secure infrastructure and application development capabilities. New U.S. customers can get their cloud bill cut in half by switching to OCI before March 31, 2024 at https://oracle.com/cognitive Shopify: Shopify is revolutionizing online selling with its market-leading checkout system and robust API ecosystem. Its exclusive library of cutting-edge AI apps empowers e-commerce businesses to thrive in a competitive market. Cognitive Revolution listeners can try Shopify for just $1 per month at https://shopify.com/cognitive NetSuite: Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. With a unified platform for accounting, financial management, inventory, and HR, NetSuite provides real-time insights and forecasting to help you make quick, informed decisions. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/cognitive RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Second Opinion. Join Christina Farr, Ash Zenooz and Luba Greenwood as they bring influential entrepreneurs, experts and investors into the ring for candid conversations at the frontlines of healthcare and digital health every week. Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0A8NwQE976s32zdBbZw6bv Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/second-opinion-with-christina-farr-ash-zenooz-md-luba/id1759267211 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@SecondOpinionwithChristinaFarr PRODUCED BY: https://aipodcast.ing

Commentator and Author

Bankless/Jun 25, 2024/1h 29m

The Case for Authoritarianism | Vitalik Buterin & Noah Smith

What if the information anarchy of the internet spells the downfall of liberalism? Economist Noah Smith and Ethereum Founder Vitalik Buterin join us for a fascinating discussion on why Authoritarianism might be the answer to the current information warfare. Yes, you heard that right. We start the episode by defining liberalism, how it has brought excessive polarization and why totalitarianism might be the only solution left. We then steelman the case against this same argument and how blockchains and crypto could play a role in all this. ------ ✨ Mint the episode on Zora ✨ https://zora.co/collect/zora:0x0c294913a7596b427add7dcbd6d7bbfc7338d53f/20?referrer=0x077Fe9e96Aa9b20Bd36F1C6290f54F8717C5674E ------ 📣STAKEWISE | LIQUID SOLO STAKING https://bankless.cc/Pod_StakeWise ------ BANKLESS SPONSOR TOOLS: 🐙KRAKEN | MOST-TRUSTED CRYPTO EXCHANGE https://k.xyz/bankless-pod-q2 ⁠ 🌐 TRANSPORTER | CROSS CHAINS WITH CONFIDENCE https://transporter.io/ 🔗CELO | CEL2 COMING SOON https://bankless.cc/Celo 🛞MANTLE | MODULAR LAYER 2 NETWORK https://bankless.cc/Mantle ⚡️ CARTESI | LINUX-POWERED ROLLUPS https://bankless.cc/CartesiGovernance ⚖️ARBITRUM | SCALING ETHEREUM ⁠https://bankless.cc/Arbitrum ------ TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 8:53 Defining Liberalism 21:50 Information Warfare 42:17 Summarizing the Argument 55:09 Could the Thesis be Wrong? 1:11:12 Information Leviathans 1:34:13 The Role of Blockchains 1:38:22 Closing & Disclaimers ------ RESOURCES Vitalik Buterin https://x.com/VitalikButerin Noah Smith https://x.com/Noahpinion Noahpinion Blog https://www.noahpinion.blog/ ------ Not financial or tax advice. See our investment disclosures here: https://www.bankless.com/disclosures ⁠

Co-founder, Ethereum

Commentator and Author

Bankless/Oct 17, 2022/1h 50m

140 - The Future is Fiat | Noah Smith (Noahpinion)

✨ DEBRIEF | Unpacking the Episode: https://shows.banklesshq.com/p/debrief-noah ----- Noah Smith is a writer economist, with fiercely independent takes that he articulates with precision and clarity. We see him as a knowledgable crypto outsider, which is a rare trait we've seen throughout the posts on his blog, Noahpinion. In today's episode, we cover geopolitics in broad strokes—Noah thinks we're already at war in the form of an economic showdown between the New Allies and New Axis. We also turn to crypto, where Noah gives his bull case while also addressing some misconceptions he sees in the crypto community. The sum of all of this is an episode title we thought we'd never see on Bankless—The Future is Fiat. ------ 🚀 SUBSCRIBE TO NEWSLETTER: https://newsletter.banklesshq.com/ 🎙️ SUBSCRIBE TO PODCAST: http://podcast.banklesshq.com/ ------ BANKLESS SPONSOR TOOLS: ⚖️ ARBITRUM | SCALING ETHEREUM https://bankless.cc/Arbitrum ❎ ACROSS | BRIDGE TO LAYER 2 https://bankless.cc/Across 🦁 BRAVE | THE BROWSER NATIVE WALLET https://bankless.cc/Brave 💠 TRUEFI | CRYPTO FINANCIAL HUB https://bankless.cc/TrueFi 🔐 SEQUENCE | ALL-IN-ONE PLATFORM https://bankless.cc/Sequence ⚡️FUEL | THE MODULAR EXECUTION LAYER https://bankless.cc/Fuelpod ------ Topics Covered: 0:00 Intro 6:00 Noah Smith Respects Nerds 11:00 The War Economy 19:20 The New Axis 23:30 Battle of the Titans 30:50 Different Capabilities 35:02 Why Does This Matter? 39:00 Taiwan 45:20 Sanctioning China 50:35 The Path to War 57:15 High Level Crypto 1:02:20 Crypto In Conflict 1:09:45 Weakening Nation States 1:15:40 Crypto Misconceptions 1:26:10 A New Economy 1:32:10 Ponzis 1:40:48 The Fate of the Dollar 1:45:25 Bullish Rabbits ------ Resources: Noah Smith https://twitter.com/Noahpinion?s=20&t=kKYOtZ37UkLtwZ4WGmDT6Q Noahpinion https://noahpinion.substack.com/ Freedom's Forge https://www.amazon.com/Freedoms-Forge-American-Business-Produced/dp/0812982045 NOAH'S WRITING: The War Economy https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/the-war-economy-sizing-up-the-new The Danger Zone https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/book-review-danger-zone Could We Sanction China? https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/could-we-sanction-china-if-we-had Blockchains, Dollarization, and Capital https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/blockchains-dollarization-and-capital Room for One More Bubble https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/i-think-bitcoin-has-room-for-one Economic Misconceptions of the Crypto World https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/economic-misconceptions-of-the-crypto Amway Culture https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/is-web3-culture-similar-to-amway Central Bank Digital Currencies https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/central-bank-digital-currencies-are NFTs Will Probably Be Back https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/nfts-will-probably-be-back Beating Inflation https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/how-much-will-beating-inflation-hurt No, America is Not Collapsing https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/no-america-is-not-collapsing Techno-Optimism https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/techno-optimism-for-2022 Lovecraftian Intelligence https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/lovecraftian-intelligence?sd=pf Sci-Fi Futures We Didn't Get https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/the-sci-fi-futures-we-didnt-get New Industrialism https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/a-new-industrialist-roundup Liberalism is Resilient https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/liberalism-is-resilient ----- Not financial or tax advice. This channel is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. This video is not tax advice. Talk to your accountant. Do your own research. Disclosure. From time-to-time I may add links in this newsletter to products I use. I may receive commission if you make a purchase through one of these links. Additionally, the Bankless writers hold crypto assets. See our investment disclosures here: https://www.bankless.com/disclosures

Commentator and Author

Tech Brew Ride Home/Aug 13, 2022/1h 32m

(TWTR SPC) Are We In A Recession @noahpinion ?

We speak today with Bloomberg Economics columnist Noah Smith. Are we in a recession? Are we in store for an actual shooting war with China? Is bitcoin due for one more big pump? Come for all of that, and stick around for Chris and I to hit some stories that fell through the cracks this week, like Google’s ad campaign against iMessage. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Commentator and Author

Tech Brew Ride Home/Feb 13, 2021/39m

(Bonus) Is Silicon Valley "Over?" With Bloomberg's @noahpinion

If you want the single best person in economics twitter to follow, it’s Noah Smith, Bloomberg’s Economics Opinion Columnist. If you want to him, its @noahpinion, by the way. If you want a great substack to sign up to, try noahpinion.substack.com… the free article this week is called Triumph of the HODler’s… I hope I remember to link to it in the show notes. It’s the best summation I’ve read of what’s going on with Bitcoin at the moment. But also, as you’ll hear, he has a great new podcast with another economist I respect, Brad Delong. Noah is just a smart, smart guy. If you want a smart economics angle to anything happening in the world right now, he’s just the best. Noah and I have been friendly on Twitter over the years, occasionally exchanging DMs about obscure details about the Holy Roman Empire, but this is the first time I “met” him if you will. It’s been a while since I was sort of starstruck to interview someone, but here you go. The great Noah Smith… Sponsors: AirMedCareNetwork.com/tech offer code TECH Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Commentator and Author