Airtable's 80% off value crash: VCs explain why it's still a win | E2321
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Today's show:
*Airtable just sold for $2.25 billion, an 81% drop from its peak of $11.7 billion. On this week's TWiST VC Roundtable, Aditya Agarwal (South Park Commons), Niko Bonatsos (Verdict Capital), and Rick Heitzmann (FirstMark Capital) break down why the venture world sees this as a good outcome, not a financial disaster.
By declining the deal, would Airtable's team have just been delaying the inevitable? Is the fact that they reached $400M+ ARR on its own a reason to celebrate? Find out why our investor panel prefers unwinding a stuck situation rather than chasing a growth rate that's no longer sustainable.
PLUS Robinhood's booming prediction market business, the secondary market flap over Anduril shares, why so many VCs shy away from "vice" categories, and a glimpse at how insiders are talking about the Apple-OpenAI lawsuit.
Guests
Aditya Agarwal on X: https://x.com/adityaag
South Park Commons: https://www.southparkcommons.com/apply
Niko Bonatsos on X: https://x.com/bonatsos
Verdict Capital: https://verdictcap.com/
Rick Heitzmann on X: https://x.com/rick
FirstMark Capital: https://firstmark.com/
Relevant Links
Airtable: https://www.airtable.com/
Bending Spoons announces Airtable acquisition: https://investors.bendingspoons.com/newsroom/bending-spoons-agrees-to-acquire-airtable
Constellation Software: The Anti-Conglomerate: https://www.eaglepointcap.com/blog/constellation-software-the-anti-conglomerate
Introducing Robinhood Ventures Fund II: https://robinhood.com/us/en/newsroom/introducing-rvii/
Quartz: Robinhood posted record quarterly revenue: https://qz.com/robinhood-record-revenue-prediction-markets-earnings-073026
Riot Games: https://www.riotgames.com/en
AngelList's USVC Fund: https://usvc.com/
Baseten: https://www.baseten.co/
OpenEvidence: https://www.openevidence.com/
Hermes Agent: https://hermes-agent.org/
Granola: https://www.granola.ai/
Timestamps:
0:00 VC intros & Bending Spoons buys Airtable
9:19 Why growth is the only metric that matters
9:45 Vanta - Get $1000 off your SOC 2 at https://www.vanta.com/twist
20:52 Agree.com - Stop chasing invoices and automate your entire contract-to-cash stack. Go to https://agree.com and tell them Jason sent you to get 50% off for life!
26:25 When should VCs sell in secondary markets?
30:55 Odoo - The all-in-one business platform. Get started for free at https://Odoo.com/twist
35:38 Robinhood's prediction markets are exploding
43:13 The USVC-Anduril secondary controversy
46:18 How VC firms use open source models
58:43 Telling the real founders from the grifters
1:02:38 Why Apple is suing OpenAI
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Great TWIST interviews: Will Guidara, Eoghan McCabe, Steve Huffman, Brian Chesky, Bob Moesta, Aaron Levie, Sophia Amoruso, Reid Hoffman, Frank Slootman, Billy McFarland
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Where Are The AI Startups? — With Rick Heitzmann
Rick Heitzmann is the founder and managing director of FirstMark Capital. Heitzmann joins Big Technology Podcast to discuss whether AI startups can compete against the ChatGPTs of the world, or whether the big AI bots have ingested all the opportunity. Tune in to hear Heitzmann break down the economics of AI investing today and whether the application layer is investable. We'll also break down the big funding deals in AI today, looking at the potential for the frenzy to pay off. Tune in for a sensible discussion of the potential future of AI innovation.
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Startup Valuations, Biotech’s Crunch & AI’s Massive TAM | E2147
Today’s show:
It’s another blockbuster panel of insiders, as Alex sits down with Astasia Myers from Felicis, Matt Turck from First Mark Capital, and D.A. Wallach of Time BioVentures. AI is reshaping early-stage investing, with startups raising record-setting rounds adn chasing $100B+ markets. Meanwhile, biotech faces a “Great Depression” as public markets stay shut, putting added pressure on private capital. In healthcare, AI-powered virtual doctors promise to bring world-class medical advice to everyone, while fertility tech could revolutionize IVF by automating embryo handling and slashing costs. Hear our VC experts exclusive thoughts on these trends and much more!
Timestamps:
(2:21) The post-Q2 landscape and everyone’s immediate reactions
(05:00) Why biotech is in a “Great Depression,” even for AI companies!
(9:36) CLA - Get started with CLA's CPAs, consultants, and wealth advisors now at https://claconnect.com/tech(12:14) Overpriced vs. high-performing: Do high prices ALWAYS mean low expected returns and vice versa?
(14:50) Mega markets: how AI is different from past software shifts(18:58) Everyone’s companies are CRUSHING IT: why genAI has crazy tailwinds right now
(20:33) Sentry - New users get 3 months free of the Business plan (covers 150k errors). Go to http://sentry.io/twist and use code TWIST(21:46) Product-market fit and revenue durability in AI(24:29) Marketing and community development for early stage founders(25:14) AI advancements in humor, avatars, and healthcare(29:30) Public - Take your investing to the next level with Public. Build a multi-asset portfolio and earn 4.1% APY on your cash—with no fees or minimums. Start now at public.com/twist.(30:45) Healthcare innovation and AI foundation models(35:37) AI differentiation, OpenAI valuation, and infrastructure companies(43:08) User experience in LLMs and AI inference costs(51:21) AI healthcare applications and founding team trends(56:28) Hiring trends, burn rates, and outsourcing in biotech(1:01:51) Government investment in biotech and the European AI ecosystem(1:06:43) Academic founders and the Felicis Fellows program(1:09:10) Recent exits and the outlook for the upcoming quarters(1:12:27) Innovations in fertility treatments and prenatal testing(1:15:51) Summary of bullish trends and future outlook(1:16:14) Closing remarks and future check-in plans
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Thank you to our partners:
(9:36) CLA - Get started with CLA's CPAs, consultants, and wealth advisors now at https://claconnect.com/tech
(20:33) Sentry - New users get 3 months free of the Business plan (covers 150k errors). Go to http://sentry.io/twist and use code TWIST
(29:30) Public - Take your investing to the next level with Public. Build a multi-asset portfolio and earn 4.1% APY on your cash—with no fees or minimums. Start now at public.com/twist
Great TWIST interviews: Will Guidara, Eoghan McCabe, Steve Huffman, Brian Chesky, Bob Moesta, Aaron Levie, Sophia Amoruso, Reid Hoffman, Frank Slootman, Billy McFarland
Check out Jason’s suite of newsletters: https://substack.com/@calacanis
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Mapping The Data Infrastructure Landscape As A Venture Capitalist
Summary
The data ecosystem has been building momentum for several years now. As a venture capital investor Matt Turck has been trying to keep track of the main trends and has compiled his findings into the MAD (ML, AI, and Data) landscape reports each year. In this episode he shares his experiences building those reports and the perspective he has gained from the exercise.
Announcements
Hello and welcome to the Data Engineering Podcast, the show about modern data management
Businesses that adapt well to change grow 3 times faster than the industry average. As your business adapts, so should your data. RudderStack Transformations lets you customize your event data in real-time with your own JavaScript or Python code. Join The RudderStack Transformation Challenge today for a chance to win a $1,000 cash prize just by submitting a Transformation to the open-source RudderStack Transformation library. Visit dataengineeringpodcast.com/rudderstack today to learn more
Your host is Tobias Macey and today I'm interviewing Matt Turck about his annual report on the Machine Learning, AI, & Data landscape and the insights around data infrastructure that he has gained in the process
Interview
Introduction
How did you get involved in the area of data management?
Can you describe what the MAD landscape report is and the story behind it?
At a high level, what is your goal in the compilation and maintenance of your landscape document?
What are your guidelines for what to include in the landscape?
As the data landscape matures, how have you seen that influence the types of projects/companies that are founded?
What are the product categories that were only viable when capital was plentiful and easy to obtain?
What are the product categories that you think will be swallowed by adjacent concerns, and which are likely to consolidate to remain competitive?
The rapid growth and proliferation of data tools helped establish the "Modern Data Stack" as a de-facto architectural paradigm. As we move into this phase of contraction, what are your predictions for how the "Modern Data Stack" will evolve?
Is there a different architectural paradigm that you see as growing to take its place?
How has your presentation and the types of information that you collate in the MAD landscape evolved since you first started it?~~
What are the most interesting, innovative, or unexpected product and positioning approaches that you have seen while tracking data infrastructure as a VC and maintainer of the MAD landscape?
What are the most interesting, unexpected, or challenging lessons that you have learned while working on the MAD landscape over the years?
What do you have planned for future iterations of the MAD landscape?
Contact Info
Website
@mattturck on Twitter
MAD Landscape Comments Email
Parting Question
From your perspective, what is the biggest gap in the tooling or technology for data management today?
Closing Announcements
Thank you for listening! Don't forget to check out our other shows. Podcast.__init__ covers the Python language, its community, and the innovative ways it is being used. The Machine Learning Podcast helps you go from idea to production with machine learning.
Visit the site to subscribe to the show, sign up for the mailing list, and read the show notes.
If you've learned something or tried out a project from the show then tell us about it! Email hosts@dataengineeringpodcast.com) with your story.
To help other people find the show please leave a review on Apple Podcasts and tell your friends and co-workers
Links
MAD Landscape
First Mark Capital
Bayesian Learning
AI Winter
Databricks
Cloud Native Landscape
LUMA Scape
Hadoop Ecosystem
Modern Data Stack
Reverse ETL
Generative AI
dbt
Transform
Podcast Episode
Snowflake IPO
Dataiku
Iceberg
Podcast Episode
Hudi
Podcast Episode
DuckDB
Podcast Episode
Trino
Y42
Podcast Episode
Mozart Data
Podcast Episode
Keboola
MPP Database
The intro and outro music is from The Hug by The Freak Fandango Orchestra / CC BY-SA
Sponsored By:
Rudderstack: 
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Support Data Engineering Podcast
ANGEL: FirstMark’s Rick Heitzmann on shaking off the bull run, “shock absorbers,” and more | E1670
Jason is joined by FirstMark Capital’s Rick Heitzmann, who started his investment career in 1999. They discuss “sobering up” after the 14-year bull run (1:55), Airbnb’s response to the downturn (7:38), how senior leaders must act as shock absorbers for their founders (26:30), and more!
(0:00) Jason kicks off the show
(1:55) Rick’s experience of the “Speculative Asset Bubble”
(7:38) Airbnb’s reaction to the downturn
(11:33) LinkedIn Jobs - Go to https://linkedIn.com/angel and post your first job for free
(12:58) Rick’s memory of the Dot Com bubble
(19:39) Advice for founders in a downturn
(22:27) Embroker - Use code TWIST to get an extra 10% off insurance at https://Embroker.com/twist
(23:29) How CAC and LTV have changed
(26:30) The emotional state of Founders and keeping them focused
(35:09) Term sheets in the Dot Com era and today
(40:06) Letterhead - get 50% off their first year at tryletterhead.com/twist
(41:21) Different forms of exits + Key attributes in founders
FOLLOW Rick: https://twitter.com/rick
FOLLOW Jason: https://linktr.ee/calacanis
FOLLOW Molly: https://twitter.com/mollywood
20VC: Firstmark's Rick Heitzmann on The Rise of Pre-Emptive Rounds, His Biggest Learnings From The Pinterest Board, 2 Things VCs Can Do To Prepare Their Companies For The Downturn and Why Now Is A Good Time to Be Contrarian and Invest In Consumer
Rick Heitzmann is a Founder and Partner @ Firstmark Capital, one of the leading East Coast venture funds of the last decade with a portfolio including the likes of Airbnb, Pinterest, InVision, Shopify and Discord to name a few. As for Rick, he led the seed round for Pinterest and also led the deals from Firstmark in Ro, Riot Games, Draft Kings, Discord and Airbnb. Prior to founding FirstMark, Rick was an entrepreneur as a founding member at First Advantage which he helped grow and sell to First American (NYSE: FAF). Rick has been recognized by CB Insights and the New York Times as a Top 100 Venture Capitalist globally.
In Today's Episode You Will Learn:
1.) How Rick made his way into the world of venture and came to found one of NYC's leading venture funds in the form of Firstmark?
2.) How did seeing the booms and bust of the macro impact Rick's investment mentality today? With the impending crash, what 2 things does Rick advise managers need to prepare their portfolio by doing? Does Rick agree with Bill Gurley in saying, "the biggest challenge of today is the over-supply of capital"?
3.) How has Rick seen his style of investing change over the last 20 years? How does Rick think about price sensitivity today? How has that changed over the years? How has Rick seen himself change and evolve as a board member? What does Rick believe makes the best board members? What advice would Rick give to someone who has gained their first board seat?
4.) How does Rick think about the structure of the Firstmark portfolio today? How important does Rick believe it is to have temporal diversification within the portfolio? How does Rick think about optimising investment decision-making processes at Firstmark? Why does Rick believe, despite the negatives, that attribution is fundamentally important?
5.) Does Rick believe that we are in a consumer bubble today? What are the core elements that pique Rick's interest when analysing a consumer investment today? How does Rick think about CAC's scaling way faster and higher than anyone expected? Why does Rick believe the duopoly of FB and Google is now over? Why does Rick believe that true venture size exits can still occur in consumer?
Items Mentioned In Today's Show:
Rick's Fave Book: Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game
Rick's Most Recent Investment: Crisp
As always you can follow Harry, The Twenty Minute VC and Rick on Twitter here!
20VC: Is Big Data Still A Thing with Matt Turck, Managing Director at FirstMark Capital
Matt Turck is Managing Director of FirstMark Capital where he invests across a broad range of early-stage enterprise and consumer startups. Prior to FirstMark, he was a Managing Director at Bloomberg Ventures, the investment and incubation arm of Bloomberg LP. Previously, Matt was the co-founder of TripleHop Technologies, a venture-backed enterprise search software startup that was acquired by Oracle. Matt organizes two large monthly events, Data Driven NYC (focuses on Big Data and AI) and Hardwired NYC(focuses on IOT, AR/VR, drones). At Firstmark, Matt has made investments in the likes of Sketchfab, Sense 360 and the much loved X.ai with Amy Ingram as your personal secretary.
In Today's Episode You Will Learn: 1.) How did Matt make his way into the world of VC?
2.) What does big data really mean? With the cool kids in the data world moving on to obsessing over AI, is big data still a 'thing' in 2016?
3.) Why is now the time for big data? What has enabled big data to have sudden mass utility across a variety of applications?
4.) How does Matt view the integration of big data and AI? Is AI helping big data deliver it's promise?
5.) How can we combat the incumbency advantage of large companies owning the majority of datasets? How can startups access similar datasets?
Items Mentioned In Today's Episode:
Matt's Fave Blog: AVC, Chris Dixon, Brad Feld, Wait But Why
Matt's Most Recent Investment: Hyperscience
As always you can follow The Twenty Minute VC, Harry and Matt on Twitter here! If you would like to see a more colourful side to Harry with many a mojito session, you can follow him on Instagram here! The Twenty Minute VC is brought to you by Leesa, the Warby Parker or TOMS shoes of the mattress industry. Lees have done away with the terrible mattress showroom buying experience by creating a luxury premium foam mattress that is order completely online and ships for free to your doorstep. The 10 inch mattress comes in all sizes and is engineered with 3 unique foam layers for a universal, adaptive feel, including 2 inches of memory foam and 2 inches of a really cool latex foam called Avena, design to keep you cool. All Leesa mattresses are 100% US or UK made and for every 10 mattresses they sell, they donate one to a shelter. Go to Leesa.com/VC and enter the promo code VC75 to get $75 off!
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