Airtable's 80% off value crash: VCs explain why it's still a win | E2321
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Today's show:
*Airtable just sold for $2.25 billion, an 81% drop from its peak of $11.7 billion. On this week's TWiST VC Roundtable, Aditya Agarwal (South Park Commons), Niko Bonatsos (Verdict Capital), and Rick Heitzmann (FirstMark Capital) break down why the venture world sees this as a good outcome, not a financial disaster.
By declining the deal, would Airtable's team have just been delaying the inevitable? Is the fact that they reached $400M+ ARR on its own a reason to celebrate? Find out why our investor panel prefers unwinding a stuck situation rather than chasing a growth rate that's no longer sustainable.
PLUS Robinhood's booming prediction market business, the secondary market flap over Anduril shares, why so many VCs shy away from "vice" categories, and a glimpse at how insiders are talking about the Apple-OpenAI lawsuit.
Guests
Aditya Agarwal on X: https://x.com/adityaag
South Park Commons: https://www.southparkcommons.com/apply
Niko Bonatsos on X: https://x.com/bonatsos
Verdict Capital: https://verdictcap.com/
Rick Heitzmann on X: https://x.com/rick
FirstMark Capital: https://firstmark.com/
Relevant Links
Airtable: https://www.airtable.com/
Bending Spoons announces Airtable acquisition: https://investors.bendingspoons.com/newsroom/bending-spoons-agrees-to-acquire-airtable
Constellation Software: The Anti-Conglomerate: https://www.eaglepointcap.com/blog/constellation-software-the-anti-conglomerate
Introducing Robinhood Ventures Fund II: https://robinhood.com/us/en/newsroom/introducing-rvii/
Quartz: Robinhood posted record quarterly revenue: https://qz.com/robinhood-record-revenue-prediction-markets-earnings-073026
Riot Games: https://www.riotgames.com/en
AngelList's USVC Fund: https://usvc.com/
Baseten: https://www.baseten.co/
OpenEvidence: https://www.openevidence.com/
Hermes Agent: https://hermes-agent.org/
Granola: https://www.granola.ai/
Timestamps:
0:00 VC intros & Bending Spoons buys Airtable
9:19 Why growth is the only metric that matters
9:45 Vanta - Get $1000 off your SOC 2 at https://www.vanta.com/twist
20:52 Agree.com - Stop chasing invoices and automate your entire contract-to-cash stack. Go to https://agree.com and tell them Jason sent you to get 50% off for life!
26:25 When should VCs sell in secondary markets?
30:55 Odoo - The all-in-one business platform. Get started for free at https://Odoo.com/twist
35:38 Robinhood's prediction markets are exploding
43:13 The USVC-Anduril secondary controversy
46:18 How VC firms use open source models
58:43 Telling the real founders from the grifters
1:02:38 Why Apple is suing OpenAI
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Great TWIST interviews: Will Guidara, Eoghan McCabe, Steve Huffman, Brian Chesky, Bob Moesta, Aaron Levie, Sophia Amoruso, Reid Hoffman, Frank Slootman, Billy McFarland
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Where Are The AI Startups? — With Rick Heitzmann
Rick Heitzmann is the founder and managing director of FirstMark Capital. Heitzmann joins Big Technology Podcast to discuss whether AI startups can compete against the ChatGPTs of the world, or whether the big AI bots have ingested all the opportunity. Tune in to hear Heitzmann break down the economics of AI investing today and whether the application layer is investable. We'll also break down the big funding deals in AI today, looking at the potential for the frenzy to pay off. Tune in for a sensible discussion of the potential future of AI innovation.
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ANGEL: FirstMark’s Rick Heitzmann on shaking off the bull run, “shock absorbers,” and more | E1670
Jason is joined by FirstMark Capital’s Rick Heitzmann, who started his investment career in 1999. They discuss “sobering up” after the 14-year bull run (1:55), Airbnb’s response to the downturn (7:38), how senior leaders must act as shock absorbers for their founders (26:30), and more!
(0:00) Jason kicks off the show
(1:55) Rick’s experience of the “Speculative Asset Bubble”
(7:38) Airbnb’s reaction to the downturn
(11:33) LinkedIn Jobs - Go to https://linkedIn.com/angel and post your first job for free
(12:58) Rick’s memory of the Dot Com bubble
(19:39) Advice for founders in a downturn
(22:27) Embroker - Use code TWIST to get an extra 10% off insurance at https://Embroker.com/twist
(23:29) How CAC and LTV have changed
(26:30) The emotional state of Founders and keeping them focused
(35:09) Term sheets in the Dot Com era and today
(40:06) Letterhead - get 50% off their first year at tryletterhead.com/twist
(41:21) Different forms of exits + Key attributes in founders
FOLLOW Rick: https://twitter.com/rick
FOLLOW Jason: https://linktr.ee/calacanis
FOLLOW Molly: https://twitter.com/mollywood
20VC: Firstmark's Rick Heitzmann on The Rise of Pre-Emptive Rounds, His Biggest Learnings From The Pinterest Board, 2 Things VCs Can Do To Prepare Their Companies For The Downturn and Why Now Is A Good Time to Be Contrarian and Invest In Consumer
Rick Heitzmann is a Founder and Partner @ Firstmark Capital, one of the leading East Coast venture funds of the last decade with a portfolio including the likes of Airbnb, Pinterest, InVision, Shopify and Discord to name a few. As for Rick, he led the seed round for Pinterest and also led the deals from Firstmark in Ro, Riot Games, Draft Kings, Discord and Airbnb. Prior to founding FirstMark, Rick was an entrepreneur as a founding member at First Advantage which he helped grow and sell to First American (NYSE: FAF). Rick has been recognized by CB Insights and the New York Times as a Top 100 Venture Capitalist globally.
In Today's Episode You Will Learn:
1.) How Rick made his way into the world of venture and came to found one of NYC's leading venture funds in the form of Firstmark?
2.) How did seeing the booms and bust of the macro impact Rick's investment mentality today? With the impending crash, what 2 things does Rick advise managers need to prepare their portfolio by doing? Does Rick agree with Bill Gurley in saying, "the biggest challenge of today is the over-supply of capital"?
3.) How has Rick seen his style of investing change over the last 20 years? How does Rick think about price sensitivity today? How has that changed over the years? How has Rick seen himself change and evolve as a board member? What does Rick believe makes the best board members? What advice would Rick give to someone who has gained their first board seat?
4.) How does Rick think about the structure of the Firstmark portfolio today? How important does Rick believe it is to have temporal diversification within the portfolio? How does Rick think about optimising investment decision-making processes at Firstmark? Why does Rick believe, despite the negatives, that attribution is fundamentally important?
5.) Does Rick believe that we are in a consumer bubble today? What are the core elements that pique Rick's interest when analysing a consumer investment today? How does Rick think about CAC's scaling way faster and higher than anyone expected? Why does Rick believe the duopoly of FB and Google is now over? Why does Rick believe that true venture size exits can still occur in consumer?
Items Mentioned In Today's Show:
Rick's Fave Book: Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game
Rick's Most Recent Investment: Crisp
As always you can follow Harry, The Twenty Minute VC and Rick on Twitter here!