Richard Craib

On today's episode of Empire, Jason and Mike are joined by Richard Craib, founder of Numerai, to discuss why Richard sold all his ETH. Richard is a prolific investor and has been part of the Ethereum ecosystem since the 2014 ICO. That’s why it was such a big deal when he announced he sold his ETH and that he no longer sees crypto as a good investment. Does crypto have a product outside of speculation? Is crypto’s growth just a result of the Fed? Is crypto more about regulatory arbitrage than the tech? These questions and more are explored in this fascinating conversation (debate!) where Richard holds nothing back. - - Follow Jason: https://twitter.com/JasonYanowitz Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Empire: https://twitter.com/theempirepod Follow Richard: https://twitter.com/richardcraib Subscribe on YouTube: https://tinyurl.com/4fdhhb2j Subscribe on Apple Podcasts: https://tinyurl.com/mv4frfv7 Subscribe on Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/wbaypprw - - Referenced in the show: Richard's video announcing why he sold his ETH https://twitter.com/richardcraib/status/1523513981347848192?s=20&t=qwlN5rWxe5-KWyJOEr4B6Q -- (00:00) Intro (01:52) Why Richard Sold All of His ETH (09:00) The Fed "Created" UST (12:14) Macro Trouble (15:53) A Market Neutral Strategy (19:38) Is Crypto's Only Product Speculation? (32:58) An Overreaction to a Flawed System (36:26) A Massive Misallocation of Capital (40:25) It's Mostly Just Regulatory Arbitrage (43:00) Why People Join The Crypto Industry (47:33) Is There A Real Use Case? (52:28) What Richard First Liked About Crypto

Richard Craib

Founder

Numerai

Richard Craib is the founder of Numerai, a crowd-sourced, AI-run stock trading system. Please support this podcast by checking out our sponsors: – Audible: https://audible.com/lex to get $9.95 a month for 6 months – Tryolabs: https://tryolabs.com/lex – Blinkist: https://blinkist.com/lex and use code LEX to get 25% off premium – Athletic Greens: https://athleticgreens.com/lex and use code LEX to get 1 month of fish oil EPISODE LINKS: Richard’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/richardcraib Numerai’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/numerai Numerai’s Website: https://numer.ai PODCAST INFO: Podcast website: https://lexfridman.com/podcast Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/2lwqZIr Spotify: https://spoti.fi/2nEwCF8 RSS: https://lexfridman.com/feed/podcast/ YouTube Full Episodes: https://youtube.com/lexfridman YouTube Clips: https://youtube.com/lexclips SUPPORT & CONNECT: – Check out the sponsors above, it’s the best way to support this podcast – Support on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/lexfridman – Twitter: https://twitter.com/lexfridman – Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/lexfridman – LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lexfridman – Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/LexFridmanPage – Medium: https://medium.com/@lexfridman OUTLINE: Here’s the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time. (00:00) – Introduction (08:12) – WallStreetBets and GameStop saga (22:25) – Evil shorting and chill shorting (24:31) – Hedge funds (30:04) – Vlad (37:00) – Numerai (1:04:16) – Futre of AI in stock trading (1:09:55) – Numerai data (1:13:37) – Is stock trading gambling or investing? (1:17:32) – What is money? (1:20:49) – Cryptocurrency (1:24:06) – Dogecoin (1:28:36) – Advice for startups (1:44:27) – Book recommendations (1:46:29) – Advice for young people (1:50:30) – Meaning of life

Richard Craib

Founder

Numerai

While many companies like to use buzzwords like crypto, blockchain, AI and encryption, Numerai actually combines all these technologies in a novel way. Founder Richard Craib discusses how his hedge fund started off crowdsourcing good financial models from data scientists to optimize its trading strategies in global equities. He then explains how it airdropped a token, the Numeraire, to those data scientists, giving them the option to stake some Numeraire for models they were especially confident in, and how staked models have higher returns. He also describes Numerai's new Erasure protocol, which helps build a marketplace for predictions for sellers who could profit more from selling their predictions than trading on them, and for buyers who can now use the signal of staking to filter between good and bad data. We dive into the protocol's "griefing" process, in which buyers can punish sellers, as well as the thorny issue of whether selling predictions based on proprietary information could constitute insider trading. Plus, we explore whether or not other hedge funds would really want to buy a token created by another hedge fund, and what Numerai's plans are to become more decentralized. Thank you to our sponsor! Onramp: http://www.thinkonramp.com Episode links: Numerai: https://numer.ai Richard Craib: https://twitter.com/richardcraib My Forbes article on the Numeraire: https://www.forbes.com/sites/laurashin/2017/02/21/this-is-the-worlds-first-cryptocurrency-issued-by-a-hedge-fund/#3cda45f360b6 Erasure: https://erasure.xxx Announcement about Erasure: https://medium.com/numerai/numerai-reveals-erasure-unstoppable-peer-to-peer-data-feeds-4fbb8d92820a Unchained episode with Olaf Carlson-Wee of Polychain Capital: http://unchainedpodcast.co/why-the-first-employee-of-coinbase-launched-a-hedge-fund Unchained episode with Joey Krug of Augur: http://unchainedpodcast.co/joey-krug-on-how-augur-is-like-any-other-tool-ep79 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Richard Craib

Founder

Numerai

I intentionally avoid the world of quantitative investing on this podcast. The whole point of this format is to learn about many different fields, and the vast majority of my time is already spent in quant world. Occasionally I’ve broken this rule because of something unique, including this week’s conversation with Richard Craib, the founder and CEO of Numerai. If you listen to the podcast often you’ll have heard me reference Numerai, a hedge fund which blends quant investing, cryptocurrencies, crowdsourcing, and machine learning — talk about a PR company’s dream. One important note: Numerai is both incredibly open and very secretive. You may sense a bit of frustration on my part, but that is only because, as a fellow quant who loves details about data and modeling, we couldn’t go deeper into the details on the record. We discuss how Numerai has created an incentive structure to work with data scientists around the world in an attempt to build better investing models. The idea of having data scientists stake cryptocurrency in support of the quality of their models is fascinating. Like many hedge funds, Numerai doesn’t share its track record, so we don’t know if this works—but I hope you, like me, use this conversation as inspiration for how different technologies can intersect. Hash Power is presented by Fidelity Investments Please enjoy my conversation with Richard Craib.   For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast. Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub. Follow Patrick on Twitter at @patrick_oshag   Show Notes 2:32 - (First Question) – How he came up with Numerai and how its related to his background 4:08 – How he works with and models the data for his system 5:24 – Describing machine learning as it relates to his work, and specifically linear regression 7:11 – The important stages in his sequence 8:46 – How the scale in the number of data scientists they use is different from other areas 11:30 – Which is the most important aspect of creating alpha; their data, algorithm work, proprietary ensembling of those algorithms. 14:30 – The idea of staking in blockchain 17:30 – Does the magnitude of the stake matter in blockchain 19:10 – Understanding the full incentive structure for both staked and unstaked work 21:07 – How is the prize pool determined 22:29 – Philosophy on how to source interesting data 26:11 – His thoughts on the crowd model and the wisdom of crowds 27:12 – The size of stakers for Numerai 27:51 – Interpreting the models and knowing when something is broken 30:03 – How they think about people not submitting their models 31:48 – Their model building 32:39 – Most interesting set of things they are working on to improve the overall process             35:38 – The Market for "Lemons": Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism 37:11 – How people can come along with their own data 39:00 – His thoughts on the quantitative investment community 40:44 – What else is interesting him in the hedge fund world 44:03 – Building a marketplace and staving off competition 46:16 – Kindest thing anyone has done for him   Learn More For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast.  Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub Follow Patrick on twitter at @patrick_oshag

Richard Craib

Founder

Numerai