Why the Price of Oil, Beef, Electricity, and Everything Else Makes No Sense
Whether it's the price of a barrel of Brent crude or a pound of beef, it's clear prices are skyrocketing for all kinds of goods and commodities. Price shocks and shortages are, if anything, the way consumers understand the economy right now — at the grocery store or at the gas pump. Certainly, current (and future) shocks can be explained by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. But the environment is weirder than just across the board price increases: The price of corn has barely moved, for instance, while fertilizer just keeps going up. We have not one but two perfect guests to talk to us today, our favorite commodity specialists: Bloomberg Opinion columnist Javier Blas and Lorcan Roche Kelly, the business editor at Irish Farmers Journal. Today's episode — which was recorded on stage at Wilton's Music Hall in London as part of our first ever show outside the US — covers how the world's farmers feel about US trade policy, why today's energy shock is so different from 2022's, the true impact of the UAE leaving OPEC, and why it's going to get harder to buy hard cheese in the near future.
Read more:Global Bond Selloff Worsens as Rising Oil Prices Spook InvestorsChina Allows Exports for 425 US Beef Plants, Trade Group Says
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Javier Blas on Why Oil Could Go Much, Much Higher
Oil has shot up by a lot since the start of war with Iran. But it could still get much worse. So far, the massive disruption (due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz) has been cushioned by the drawing down of inventories and distributions from strategic stockpiles. Meanwhile, there is some oil still on tankers that has yet to be delivered. According to Bloomberg Opinion columnist Javier Blas, the potential remains for oil to go much, much higher. On this episode, we speak with Javier about the scale of the shock, why the pain is extraordinarily high in East Asia, how this compares to past oil shocks, and what the world would look like if Iran retains control of the Strait.
Read more:Oil Falls on Signs From US, Iran of Openness for War Resolution Trump’s God Squad Exempts Gulf Drilling from Endangered Species Protections
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Javier Blas on China's Rare Earths Dominance
Every time there is tension between the US and China, there are stories about China threatening to withhold exports of rare earth metals, which are supposedly crucial for all kinds of advanced technologies. In this episode, recorded in Bloomberg's London studio, Bloomberg Opinion columnist Javier Blas helps us clear up some misconceptions about them. For one thing, rare earths aren't actually that rare. Furthermore, the amount of global trade of these minerals is fairly minuscule. The US only imports $170 million worth in a year. And then beyond that, the most common usage of them is in vacuum cleaners. Still, their economics are interesting and they do have some important applications. In addition, we talk about what the trade war means for the domestic US energy agenda, and the Trump administration's desire to expand total output.
Read more:
Chinese Rare Earth Shipments Held Up as Trade War Upends Exports
Javier Blas: $50-a-Barrel Oil Is a Problem for US Trade Deficit
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Lots More on the Parabolic Surge in Cocoa Prices
The cost of cocoa beans has surged to a record $10,000 per metric ton. That's expected to make chocolate more expensive for millions of confectionary fans around the world. But why have prices more than doubled in the past few months alone? And what could halt the surge? We speak with Bloomberg Opinion columnist and Odd Lots favorite Javier Blas. He describes how a combination of chronic underinvestment in cocoa supply has run head first into financial markets to squeeze prices higher.
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Just How Bad Will the Energy Crisis Be in Europe This Winter?
As everyone knows, electricity prices in Europe have soared, due to a combination of factors, most prominently Russia's war in Ukraine and the curtailing of natural gas supplies. But how bad is it going to get this winter? Will Germany have enough energy to power homes and factories? Or will industrial operations have to shut down. On this episode, we speak with two guests: Bloomberg Opinion Columnist Javier Blas as well as Singapore-based hedge fund manager Alex Turnbull. They walk through how to think through both the European and global energy situation as the weather gets cold.
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Javier Blas Explains How Commodity Trading Shops Really Work
One of the big themes these days is the return of the 'real' economy. You can't solve problems these days with just money. Not everything can be done by sitting behind a screen. And so some of the most important players in this new environment are the commodity trading shops, which help arrange financing and delivery of oil, coal, natural gas, nickel and everything else you can think of across the far-flung corners of the globe. It's a very different type of business than most trading, which is mostly just about charts on a screen. On this episode we speak with long-time commodities journalist turned Bloomberg Opinion columnist Javier Blas -- the co-author of 'The World For Sale: Money, Power, and the Traders Who Barter the Earth's Resources' -- to get a deeper understanding of how these firms operate, and how they're dealing with this environment of surging commodity prices and extreme volatility.
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