Why the Price of Oil, Beef, Electricity, and Everything Else Makes No Sense
Whether it's the price of a barrel of Brent crude or a pound of beef, it's clear prices are skyrocketing for all kinds of goods and commodities. Price shocks and shortages are, if anything, the way consumers understand the economy right now — at the grocery store or at the gas pump. Certainly, current (and future) shocks can be explained by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. But the environment is weirder than just across the board price increases: The price of corn has barely moved, for instance, while fertilizer just keeps going up. We have not one but two perfect guests to talk to us today, our favorite commodity specialists: Bloomberg Opinion columnist Javier Blas and Lorcan Roche Kelly, the business editor at Irish Farmers Journal. Today's episode — which was recorded on stage at Wilton's Music Hall in London as part of our first ever show outside the US — covers how the world's farmers feel about US trade policy, why today's energy shock is so different from 2022's, the true impact of the UAE leaving OPEC, and why it's going to get harder to buy hard cheese in the near future.
Read more:Global Bond Selloff Worsens as Rising Oil Prices Spook InvestorsChina Allows Exports for 425 US Beef Plants, Trade Group Says
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Javier Blas on Why Oil Could Go Much, Much Higher
Oil has shot up by a lot since the start of war with Iran. But it could still get much worse. So far, the massive disruption (due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz) has been cushioned by the drawing down of inventories and distributions from strategic stockpiles. Meanwhile, there is some oil still on tankers that has yet to be delivered. According to Bloomberg Opinion columnist Javier Blas, the potential remains for oil to go much, much higher. On this episode, we speak with Javier about the scale of the shock, why the pain is extraordinarily high in East Asia, how this compares to past oil shocks, and what the world would look like if Iran retains control of the Strait.
Read more:Oil Falls on Signs From US, Iran of Openness for War Resolution Trump’s God Squad Exempts Gulf Drilling from Endangered Species Protections
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Lots More on the Worsening State of the US Labor Market
If the government were open, we'd be getting a jobs report today. But as it is, we're in this blackout of official economic data. That's unfortunate, because the economy is already in a very confusing spot, and so any additional data right now would be very helpful in figuring out where things are heading. In the absence of Non-Farm Payrolls, we talked with Bloomberg Opinion columnist Conor Sen about the worsening state of the labor market, and why he thinks the Federal Reserve needs to step in before the unemployment rate deteriorates further. We also talk about the role AI is (or isn't) playing in the labor market.
Read more:
US Companies Announce Most October Job Cuts in Over 20 Years
Fed’s Hammack Says Inflation a Bigger Concern Than Labor Market
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Javier Blas on China's Rare Earths Dominance
Every time there is tension between the US and China, there are stories about China threatening to withhold exports of rare earth metals, which are supposedly crucial for all kinds of advanced technologies. In this episode, recorded in Bloomberg's London studio, Bloomberg Opinion columnist Javier Blas helps us clear up some misconceptions about them. For one thing, rare earths aren't actually that rare. Furthermore, the amount of global trade of these minerals is fairly minuscule. The US only imports $170 million worth in a year. And then beyond that, the most common usage of them is in vacuum cleaners. Still, their economics are interesting and they do have some important applications. In addition, we talk about what the trade war means for the domestic US energy agenda, and the Trump administration's desire to expand total output.
Read more:
Chinese Rare Earth Shipments Held Up as Trade War Upends Exports
Javier Blas: $50-a-Barrel Oil Is a Problem for US Trade Deficit
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Lots More with Matt Levine on MicroStrategy's Infinite Money Machine
Everyone knows by now that MicroStrategy looks a lot like a giant Bitcoin ETF. Its founder, Michael Saylor, is a huge supporter of the cryptocurrency and his company has been snapping up billions of dollars worth of the coins. The strategy has so far proved successful. In fact, MicroStrategy is trading at a market cap that's worth more than the value of its entire Bitcoin portfolio. How does this happen? And how long can it keep going? In this episode, we speak with Bloomberg Opinion's Matt Levine. We talk to him about how MicroStrategy has created a sort of "perpetual motion machine" of investment and how the strategy is starting to expand to other companies, too.
Money Stuff: Crypto Perpetual Motion Machines
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Lots More on the Parabolic Surge in Cocoa Prices
The cost of cocoa beans has surged to a record $10,000 per metric ton. That's expected to make chocolate more expensive for millions of confectionary fans around the world. But why have prices more than doubled in the past few months alone? And what could halt the surge? We speak with Bloomberg Opinion columnist and Odd Lots favorite Javier Blas. He describes how a combination of chronic underinvestment in cocoa supply has run head first into financial markets to squeeze prices higher.
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Lots More on Shohei Ohtani's $700 Million Contract
This week was a huge one for the soft landing camp. The inflation data came in cool and the Federal Reserve indicated its confidence that it can begin monetary tightening fairly soon. Meanwhile, baseball superstar Shohei Ohtani signed a staggering $700 million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers that comes with a highly unusual deal structure. To break it down, we talked with Bloomberg Opinion columnist Conor Sen about what it all means.
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Lots More with Matt Levine and Mike Mackenzie
For those who can't get enough Odd Lots, we're now offering you... "Lots More." This new podcast show, appearing on Fridays, will see hosts Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal chatting with some of your favorite Odd Lots guests about the latest breaking news and the biggest themes on their minds in markets, finance and economics. Joe’s away for this episode. So Tracy gathers two of her favorite Bloomberg colleagues — Matt Levine and Mike Mackenzie — to talk about the basis trade that’s got regulators worried, plus the recent bond market selloff, reminiscences over Tokyo in the 1990s and much more.
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Neil Dutta and Conor Sen on the Chances of a US Soft Landing
The most recent jobs report has revived talk that the US economy might pull off the fabled "soft landing." Jobs are still growing nicely and the unemployment rate is at a 50-year low. But wages are decelerating and there are reasons to think that inflation is rolling over as well. So can Jerome Powell & Co. smoothly land the plane, so to speak? On this episode of Odd Lots we speak with Neil Dutta, chief economist at Renaissance Macro Research, and Conor Sen, a columnist at Bloomberg Opinion, about the US macro situation, as well as the rental market and the impact of China's reopening.
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Matt Levine on the Collapse of FTX and Alameda
It was on an episode of the Odd Lots podcast in April 2022 that Sam Bankman-Fried infamously characterized yield farming as a "box," in a metaphor that made the practice sound a lot like a ponzi scheme. Of course, in the wake of the collapse of his two main firms — FTX and Alameda Research — that conversation looks more and more like a huge red flag, but also provides insight into the shaky finances of his crypto empire. Bloomberg Opinion columnist Matt Levine was also a guest on that episode and he joins us again this week to discuss where we are in the fallout out of the FTX saga.
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Just How Bad Will the Energy Crisis Be in Europe This Winter?
As everyone knows, electricity prices in Europe have soared, due to a combination of factors, most prominently Russia's war in Ukraine and the curtailing of natural gas supplies. But how bad is it going to get this winter? Will Germany have enough energy to power homes and factories? Or will industrial operations have to shut down. On this episode, we speak with two guests: Bloomberg Opinion Columnist Javier Blas as well as Singapore-based hedge fund manager Alex Turnbull. They walk through how to think through both the European and global energy situation as the weather gets cold.
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Matt Levine On What to Watch In Twitter vs. Elon Musk
This week, Twitter sued Elon Musk, attempting to force him to make good on his 44 billion buyout offer for the company. This story has already been surreal in many ways, and now we might get an actual trial out of it in a Delaware court. So what should we expect, in terms of the process and the law? On this episode we speak with Bloomberg Opinion columnist Matt Levine, who has been chronicling the whole saga in his newsletter Money Stuff. He walks us through the general legal arguments, and what to expect in a theoretical trial.
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EP 19: Matt Levine, Meme Stocks, Crypto Crash and Terrible Attempts at Crime
(00:00) Intro
(00:13) Intro Zach and Packy
(01:07) Solana
(05:14) Crypto Ecosystem
(13:00) Crypto Use Cases
(18:02) Crypto Investments
(21:45) Elon’s Ultimatum
(27:43) Billionaire Senate Run
(32:04) VC Firm’s Scam & Media War
(37:39) Sheryl Sandberg Steps Down
(48:03) Matt Levine Intro
(49:39) Leaving Goldman Sachs
(52:26) Joining Deal Breaker
(55:04) Choosing Topics
(1:01:08) Crypto as a Lab for Financial Institutions
(1:02:08) Deal Breaker to Bloomberg
(1:07:00) Finance Bro Groupies
(1:08:14) r/WallStreetBets
(1:12:31) Insider Trading
(1:15:17) Crypto
(1:22:13) Elon and Twitter
(1:25:08) Elon and the SEC
(1:29:01) Writing on Unexpected Topics
(1:31:16) Impact of Meme Stocks
(1:33:11) Future Writing
(1:34:51) Outro
Links:
VC threatened a media war against a start-up after unsolicited investment https://sifted.eu/articles/heroes-amazon-solid-capital/
Elon Musk’s Ultimatum to Tesla Execs: Return to the Office or Get Out https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-01/musk-s-tesla-ultimatum-return-to-office-or-work-somewhere-else
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1531867103854317568?s=20&t=cKRzLoqnu1HMX-LPLCbZFQ
Solana goes down for over 6 hours https://cryptopotato.com/solana-goes-down-for-over-6-hours-validators-prepare-for-restart/
Coinbase pauses new hiring and rescinds accepted offers https://blog.coinbase.com/update-on-hiring-plans-bcedfa634989
US Charges Ex-OpenSea Exec With NFT Insider Trading https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2022/06/01/us-charges-ex-opensea-exec-with-nft-insider-trading/
Mixed and edited: Justin Hrabovsky
Produced: Andrew Nadeau and Rashad Assir
Executive Producer: Josh Machiz
Music: Griff Lawson
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About the Show
A Saturday morning podcast hosted by Logan Bartlett (Partner and Managing Director at Redpoint Ventures) covering the tech news with his friends and other people with industry expertise.
Executive Producer: Rashad Assir
Producer: Leah Clapper
Mixing and editing: Justin Hrabovsky
Check out Unsupervised Learning, Redpoint's AI Podcast: https://www.youtube.com/@UCUl-s_Vp-Kkk_XVyDylNwLA
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About the Show
Logan Bartlett is a Software Investor at Redpoint Ventures - a Silicon Valley-based VC with $6B AUM and investments in Snowflake, DraftKings, Twilio, and Netflix. In each episode of The Logan Bartlett Show, we sit down with the people behind today’s most important startups and extract the tactics, lessons, and frameworks they’ve learned the hard way. Conversations span hiring to GTM, product, growth, fundraising and everything in between - collectively forming the ultimate playbook to make you a better CEO, investor or board member.
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Javier Blas Explains How Commodity Trading Shops Really Work
One of the big themes these days is the return of the 'real' economy. You can't solve problems these days with just money. Not everything can be done by sitting behind a screen. And so some of the most important players in this new environment are the commodity trading shops, which help arrange financing and delivery of oil, coal, natural gas, nickel and everything else you can think of across the far-flung corners of the globe. It's a very different type of business than most trading, which is mostly just about charts on a screen. On this episode we speak with long-time commodities journalist turned Bloomberg Opinion columnist Javier Blas -- the co-author of 'The World For Sale: Money, Power, and the Traders Who Barter the Earth's Resources' -- to get a deeper understanding of how these firms operate, and how they're dealing with this environment of surging commodity prices and extreme volatility.
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This Is What 5% Mortgage Rates Mean Now For The Housing Market
For much of the last two decades, housing has been the consummate macro asset. It was at the heart of a huge boom. Then there was the crash and the Great Financial Crisis. Then there was slow comeback and return to normal. And then amidst the pandemic, housing became insanely hot for a variety of reasons. But now housing is also a micro story, as the housing supply chain -- not a topic many people have put much thought into previously -- is a key reason why home construction is slow. So where does this all stand, now that mortgage just broke 5%? Do understand the state of the market, we speak with Conor Sen, a Bloomberg Opinion contributor and the founder of Peachtree Creek Investments as well as Dustin Jalbert a senior economist at Fastmarkets, with a specialty on the lumber market. We examine housing from both the macro perspective as well as the supply chain.
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Matt Levine Dissects Elon Musk's Controversial Tweet
There's been an intense debate about what Tesla CEO Elon Musk meant when he tweeted in early August that he was taking the company private and that funding was "secured.” Bloomberg Opinion writer Matt Levine discusses how securities regulators might view such a comment.
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