"The Fed Can't Print Moore's Law" - How the AI Crash Sends Bitcoin to $1M | Arthur Hayes
Arthur Hayes is back on Bankless, and he’s taking the W off the table. After selling HYPE, NEAR and ZEC, Arthur walks through why the AI trade started to look less asymmetric, why oil and geopolitics may still be the bear case no one wants to price, and why ETH may offer one of the cleaner setups in crypto today. Then the conversation turns bigger: AI capex, circular revenue, China’s cheap models, GPU depreciation, and the moment Arthur thinks the Fed discovers it can’t print Moore’s Law.
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TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Why Arthur Sold HYPE, NEAR and ZEC
4:26 The AI Trade Starts to Look Crowded
6:25 How Arthur Is Positioned Now
7:15 Crypto’s Strange Market Dispersion
11:09 Oil, Iran and the Fake-Out Risk
14:16 Why the Iran Deal May Not Be Durable
17:29 Can AI Survive Higher Oil?
21:20 The AI Bubble Thesis
26:11 China’s Cheap AI Threat
30:38 The Credit Event Arthur Is Watching
35:51 The 2028 Perfect Storm
39:45 Why AI Is Draining Crypto’s Bull Market
44:28 Arthur on Inventing Perps
48:11 Why Perps Could Eat Wall Street
51:18 Socialized Loss Explained
53:21 Onshore vs Offshore Perps
55:50 Why Hyperliquid Can Flip Binance
56:30 The Perp Inventor Does Not Use Leverage
---
RESOURCES
Arthur Hayes
https://x.com/CryptoHayes
---
Not financial or tax advice. See our investment disclosures here:
https://www.bankless.com/disclosures
Why Arthur Hayes Thinks the AI Bubble Bursting Could Spark a Crypto Bull Market
Arthur Hayes sees one force driving markets right now: governments printing money to finance AI and war. He explains why that ends with Bitcoin much higher — and what could derail it.
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Maelstrom CIO Arthur Hayes called the Tehran toll booth scenario in writing — and now it's playing out. Sovereign nations are waking up to the fact that dollar assets don't buy oil when the strait is closed.
On this episode, Hayes joins Laura Shin to explain why the structural unwinding of petrodollar recycling forces the Fed to print, why an AI deflationary bust could rival 2008 in severity before central banks step in, and why that path ends with Bitcoin substantially higher.
He also breaks down his current highest-conviction positions: Hyperliquid, Zcash, and NEAR, and explains why he's deploying into what he calls maximum disillusionment in private crypto equity.
Host:
Laura Shin, Host / Unchained
Guests:
Arthur Hayes — CIO, Maelstrom
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Arthur Hayes and Adam Schlegel on Why Private Equity Is Crypto's Next Big Wave - Ep. 933
Crypto has spent years obsessing over tokens, airdrops, and speculation. But what about the unsexy businesses actually making money?
Arthur Hayes and Adam Schlegel join Laura Shin to talk about Maelstrom's $250M private equity fund targeting crypto's most profitable, yet overlooked, companies, $50M revenue businesses with 50% margins that VCs can't touch and exchanges won't pay cash for.
But while everyone frames this as just another fund, Hayes and Schlegel argue it's actually the missing piece in crypto's maturation: a cash buyer for founders who've done their time and want out without four-year earnouts.
Plus: Why Asian crypto companies with monster margins get ignored by Western capital.
Thank you to our sponsors!
Binance
Guests:
Arthur Hayes, Co-Founder of BitMEX & CIO at Maelstrom
Adam Schlegel, Head of Private Equity at Maelstrom
Links:
Previous appearances on Unchained:
The Chopping Block: Arthur Hayes & Tom Lee; Hyperliquid vs Aster, DATs & ETH
Arthur Hayes and Hanson Birringer on Hyperliquid’s Success (And What Could Stop It)
Bloomberg: Arthur Hayes’ Family Office Seeks $250M for Buyout Fund
Coindesk: Arthur Hayes’ Maelstrom Seeks $250M Private Equity Fund to Acquire Crypto Firms: Bloomberg
Akshat’s tweet announcing the fund
Timestamps:
🎬 0:00 Intro
📰 1:08 Maelstrom’s $250M private equity fund to buy crypto firms
👤 1:42 Adam’s background and path from Morgan Stanley to Haveli to Maelstrom
💼 3:51 Why Maelstrom believes the next crypto boom is in private equity
📈 4:42 Arthur on how crypto investing evolved from beta → VC → PE
🌏 10:05 Geographic focus: Asia and LatAm’s overlooked crypto firms
🧭 11:49 How Maelstrom evaluates targets and performs due diligence
🛠️ 17:02 Inside Maelstrom’s $250M anchor fund and LP co-invest model
👀 26:01 The types of companies Maelstrom is targeting
⚙️ 30:16 Fund structure and Arthur’s role in Maelstrom PE
📊 36:05 “The four-year cycle is dead”: Arthur on today’s crypto market
💰 39:18 Investor requirements and $5M minimum commitment
🏦 42:09 Coinbase’s Echo acquisition and what it means for exchanges
⚔️ 47:59 The perps war, how DEXs are forcing CEXs toward zero-fee trading
💥 52:18 Binance, ADL liquidations, and leverage risk
🔮 56:27 Prediction markets: Polymarket vs Kalshi vs Limitless
💵 59:06 Stablecoins and rates, why Tether and Circle could lose to Ethena
📈 1:04:15 Who wins the next phase of crypto’s evolution
🔚 1:08:14 Closing thoughts
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Tom Lee & Arthur Hayes: How Crypto Flips Wall Street
Tom Lee and Arthur Hayes map how crypto is flipping Wall Street: BTC at fresh highs, ETH’s comeback, and a surge of institutional capital, tokenization, and stablecoin rails.
Tom lays out Bitmine’s big ETH accumulation and bold targets (BTC $200–250k, ETH $10–12k), while Arthur dives into cycles, liquidity, why perps outshine leveraged ETFs, and the looming clash between prediction markets and TradFi. Plus: banks turning into on-chain tech companies and what Tether’s rise signals for the new banking stack.
Please visit https://fundstrat.com/tom for complimentary access to Tom Lee's daily market updates, real-time market alerts, live webinars, and curated stock lists.
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TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro
0:42 BTC All Time Highs
5:07 ETH Performance & Bitmine
9:32 DATs Market
15:26 4-Year Cycles
25:32 5% Bitmine’s Target
28:00 Tom’s Involvement in Ethereum
32:42 ETH’s Position
38:37 Compute for Finance
40:53 Tether’s $500B Valuation
44:57 USDT Flips BTC?
46:35 Crypto Equities
48:26 Hacks & Exploits
50:39 Financial Entertainment
55:13 Perps
58:38 Price Targets
1:00:45 2026 Wish List
1:03:06 Closing & Disclaimers
------
RESOURCES
Tom Lee
https://x.com/fundstrat
Arthur Hayes
X - https://x.com/cryptohayes
IG - https://www.instagram.com/cryptohayes/
LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/arthur-hayes-b493b42/
Substack - https://cryptohayes.substack.com/
Bitmine
https://bitminetech.io/
Fundstrat
https://fundstrat.com/tom
Maelstrom
https://maelstrom.fund/
------
Not financial or tax advice. See our investment disclosures here:
https://www.bankless.com/disclosures
The Chopping Block: Arthur Hayes & Tom Lee; Hyperliquid vs Aster, DATs & ETH - Ep. 917
Arthur Hayes & Tom Lee map the new crypto arms race—Hyperliquid vs Aster, Plasma’s stablecoin rails, and ETH’s DAT-fueled supercycle.
Welcome to The Chopping Block – where crypto insiders Haseeb Qureshi, Tom Schmidt, Tarun Chitra, and Robert Leshner chop it up about the latest in crypto. Live at Token2049 Singapore, we’re joined by Arthur Hayes (Maelstrom) and Tom Lee (Bitmine) to map two battles shaping the next cycle: the Perp DEX war—Hyperliquid’s moat vs. CZ-linked Aster, zero-fee experiments like Lighter, and whether ~$500M/year token unlocks can stay “bullish”—and the race to own stablecoin rails, from Tether-affiliated Plasma’s zero-fee USDT chain to distribution plays like Tempo and Codex. We dig into DATs, mNAV compression, and Tom’s “ETH supercycle,” plus prediction markets (Polymarket vs. Kalshi) crossing into the mainstream and a surprise Zcash revival. If crypto’s future is being decided in trading venues and in money itself, this is where the battle lines get drawn.
Show highlights🔹 Perp DEX wars — Hyperliquid vs Aster: Binance-linked Aster surges as Hyperliquid’s moat is stress-tested; CEX tie-ups (Bybit–ApeX, Coinbase–Avantis) escalate the fight.
🔹 Arthur Hayes on Hyperliquid: 126x call but sold ahead of ~$500M/yr token unlocks (starting November); “bullish unlocks” depend on sustained dominance + real fees.
🔹 Lighter’s zero-fee perps: Can post-airdrop volume stick, or do profits migrate to HLP/LLP vault strategies as fees compress?
🔹 DATs & ETH “supercycle” — Tom Lee (Bitmine): Communications flywheel, mNAV compression, ~70 ETH DATs with many below NAV; consolidation/unwinds/ETF conversions amid SEC/Nasdaq scrutiny and ZeroG controversy.
🔹 Plasma stablecoin chain (Tether-affiliated): Zero-fee USDT transfers, heavy incentives, Binance Earn distribution—are flows durable vs Ethereum/Tron?
🔹 Prediction markets — Polymarket vs Kalshi: South Park moment; funds cite PMs for shutdown/Fed odds; 2024 election accuracy pushes PMs mainstream.
🔹 Privacy coins & Zcash revival: ZEC rally, Monero 51%-attack mention, and the ongoing listings/compliance tug-of-war.
🔹 Stablecoins to $4T? — Tom Lee: Micropayments + 24/7 rails expand TAM across multiple chains, not just Ethereum.
Hosts
Disclosures
⭐️Haseeb Qureshi, Managing Partner at Dragonfly
⭐️Tom Schmidt, General Partner at Dragonfly
⭐️Tarun Chitra, Managing Partner at Robot Ventures
Guest
⭐️ Arthur Hayes, CIO at Maelstrom
⭐️Tom Lee, CIO of Fundstrat Capital & Chairman of Bitmine
Timestamps
00:00 Intro
01:15 Token 2049 Reflections
03:55 Tom Lee's Role in Ethereum
08:04 Challenges & Future of DATs
13:09 Plasma: Berachain for Stablecoins
20:06 Perp Dex Wars & Hyperliquid
24:26 Fee Compression
29:59 Kalshi vs. Polymarket
39:52 Zcash & Privacy Coins
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Arthur Hayes and Hanson Birringer on Hyperliquid’s Success (And What Could Stop It) - Ep. 852
Hyperliquid is one of the most talked-about platforms in crypto right now.
It’s an onchain perpetuals exchange that sidestepped VCs, built a deeply loyal user base, and launched with transparency most rivals avoid. But it’s also staring down some massive challenges—from incoming competitors like Coinbase and Robinhood, to the technical hurdles of decentralizing its core exchange engine.
Arthur Hayes, CIO of Maelstrom and one of crypto’s most iconic traders, and Hanson Birringer of Flowdesk discuss:
What actually drove Hyperliquid’s success
How a user-first approach is outpacing venture-backed models
Whether the James Wynn saga was legit
Why the HIP-3 proposal could be the “holy grail” for DEXes
And whether Hyperliquid can survive its next big test: the entrance of giants
Visit our website for breaking news, analysis, op-eds, articles to learn about crypto, and much more: unchainedcrypto.com
Thank you to our sponsors!
Xapo Bank
Bitwise
Guests:
Arthur Hayes, CIO of Maelstrom
Hanson Birringer, Head of US Sales at Flowdesk
Links
Stats:
CoinGlass: Total BTC Futures Open Interest
Hyperliquid Stats
James Wynn
Unchained: Hyperliquid Trader Makes $87M in 70 Days, Loses It In Five
James Wynn’s address
Transparency
Hyperliquid’s founder’s post on X saying that he felt like transparency results in better execution for whales compared to on private venues.
Hyperliquid vs Binance:
Unchained: Hyperliquid Saved Itself a $15 Million Loss, but Sparked Criticism
Arthur Hayes’ tweet on whether $HYPE perp volumes will flip Binance’s this cycle.
CZ’s tweet on dark pool DEXs
Cointelegraph: Binance co-founder CZ proposes dark pool DEXs to tackle manipulation
Tokenomics:
DL News: Hyperliquid’s token buyback machine just hit $1b — is it sustainable?
HIP-3:
Hyperliquid Docs: HIP-3: Builder-Deployed Perpetuals
Timestamps:
🎬 0:00 Intro
🔥 3:25 Why Arthur says the future of perps is onchain—and what that changes
🚀 6:58 How Hyperliquid managed to climb the ranks without VCs
🧱 9:45 Whether being its own L1 gives Hyperliquid an edge
🔍 12:44 How Hanson adapts market making in a fully transparent environment
🕵️♂️ 16:40 Why Arthur doesn’t buy the James Wynn story
💸 20:56 Whether the types of traders on Hyperliquid are different than on other venues
⚔️ 22:14 How Hyperliquid could defend itself when Coinbase and Robinhood enter the arena
🔐 26:18 What Arthur and Hanson think about Jeff Yan’s post saying transparency benefits users
🐙 32:59 Did Binance and OKX try to sabotage Hyperliquid during the $JELLY event?
📊 38:24 Arthur answers his own question of whether Hyperliquid takes on Binance’s trading volume
🌘 42:20 Whether dark pool DEXes can fix transparency without killing decentralization
🔧 47:15 Why Hanson thinks the security FUD around Hyperliquid is overblown
🌏 50:20 Whether Asia’s crypto communities care less about decentralization
🧠 52:34 How Hyperliquid’s ecosystem play with HyperEVM could reshape its future
🏆 55:52 Why Arthur calls HIP-3 the “holy grail” for DEXes
🪙 1:00:01 Whether the HYPE buyback program is a good idea
📈 1:02:49 What Hyperliquid must get right as Coinbase and Robinhood show up
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Arthur Hayes: Money Printing & The Crypto Bet
Arthur Hayes returns to Bankless for a wide-ranging macro and crypto conversation.
We cover why ETH ripped, why the Trump administration might walk away from US treasuries as the global reserve asset, and why capital controls—not tariffs—could redefine the global economic order. Arthur lays out his full thesis on how a massive shift in global liquidity is unfolding, what it means for crypto, and why he’s betting big on Bitcoin, gold, and “buying everything” as the money printers rev up again.
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TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro
0:34 ETH’s Back?
2:25 Bretton Woods
7:38 The Petrodollar
9:37 The Petroyuan
17:47 US China Trade Imbalances
20:22 Liberation Day & Tariffs
33:19 Capital Controls
38:42 US Capital Flights
44:51 Dual Monetary System
49:08 Bitcoin as a Reserve Currency?
50:19 Buy Everything Except Bonds
53:07 Scott Bessent
57:02 QE is Inevitable
1:02:15 Stablecoins
1:06:55 Trump’s Pro-Crypto Campaign
1:11:44 Global Liquidity
1:21:20 Gold Reevaluation
1:25:18 Hot War Scenario
1:29:54 Arthur’s Bags
1:30:33 Crypto Cycle
1:35:07 Closing & Disclaimers
------
RESOURCES
Arthur Hayes X
https://x.com/CryptoHayes
Arthur’s Blog Post
https://cryptohayes.medium.com/fatty-fatty-boom-boom-52e47a03f487
Arthur Hayes IG
https://www.instagram.com/cryptohayes/
LinkedIn
https://www.linkedin.com/in/arthur-hayes-b493b42/
Substack
https://cryptohayes.substack.com/
Maelstrom
https://maelstrom.fund/
------
Not financial or tax advice. See our investment disclosures here:
https://www.bankless.com/disclosures
Arthur Hayes on Why Tariffs Will Be Good for Bitcoin and Crypto - Ep. 813
TradFi and DeFi markets are in motion, responding to Trump’s tariffs, but a giant injection of liquidity could be on the way.
Maelstrom CIO Arthur Hayes provides his expertise on economic policy, macro movements, and political implications, delving into a variety of topics, including:
Trump’s rationale for tariffs
The possibility of a “fiat liquidity bonanza” and what it means for crypto
What the Hyperliquid brouhaha reveals about decentralization dreams
How Ethena might be an attack on Ethereum
The value prop of Circle’s IPO
Future price expectations for BTC, ETH, and SOL
Visit our website for breaking news, analysis, op-eds, articles to learn about crypto, and much more: unchainedcrypto.com
Thank you to our sponsors!
Bitwise
HRF
Guest:
Arthur Hayes, CIO of Maelstrom
Previous appearances on Unchained:
How Arthur Hayes Has Prepared His Portfolio for the Elections
Links
Previous coverage on Unchained:
Trump Tariffs Sink Crypto, BlackRock Pumps Bitcoin’s Bags
Why Trump-Induced Stagflation Could Finally Make Bitcoin a Safe Haven
Tariffs, Hyperliquid, and $1 million Bitcoin
Arthur Hayes on X: Tariffs = money printer goes brrrr
Arthur Hayes on X: Is Trump trying to trigger a mini financial crisis?
Arthur Hayes on X: CZ and Star ‘gang up’ on HyperLiquid
Kevin Zhou on X: Binance and OKX listing $JELLY sets a precedent
DL News: Arthur Hayes on the one reason that tariffs can’t stop Bitcoin’s surge
Trump pardon:
CFTC.gov: Federal Court Orders BitMEX’s Three Co-Founders to Pay a Total of $30 Million for Illegally Operating a Cryptocurrency Derivatives Trading Platform and Anti-Money Laundering Violations | CFTC (May 2022)
Justice.gov: Southern District of New York | Global Cryptocurrency Exchange BitMEX Fined $100 Million For Violating Bank Secrecy Act | United States Department of Justice (Jan 2025)
CNBC: Politics Trump pardons three BitMEX crypto exchange co-founders, and ex-employee
Timestamps:
👋0:00 Intro
😰 4:07 Does Trump’s tariff rationale make sense?
💲 10:49 The upcoming “fiat liquidity bonanza” and what it means for crypto
🫤 20:18 What’s wrong with a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve?
💥 24:20 The Hyperliquid brouhaha and the decentralization pipe dream
💪 32:04 Why Binance and OKX “fatal blow” on Hyperliquid didn’t work
⚖️ 37:57 Trump’s pardon of Hayes and his visit to Mar-a-Lago
👀 46:27 How Ethena’s Converge chain affects Ethereum
🤼♀️ 52:58 SOL vs ETH: Which is a better buy right now?
😬 57:12 Hayes’ opinion of USDC’s Circle filing for an IPO
🤔 1:00:18 How does Hayes suss out potential investments?
📈 1:03:11 Price predictions on BTC, ETH and SOL
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How to Prepare for the 2025 Bull Market | Arthur Hayes
What is Arthur Hayes buying for 2025?
We recorded this on the U.S election day so we don’t know who won at the time of recording. Regardless, Arthur says the election doesn’t matter. To him, the outcome is the same no matter who’s in power, they will print money.
We talk about the Chinese property bubble and the coming money cannon which Arthur thinks will be bigger than the COVID stimulus. The Fed’s next move, why the treasury is sucking all the oxygen out of the room. We get into his crypto portfolio, what he’s holding and why.
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------ TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro 5:11 Does the Election Matter? 13:44 Where are we in the Crypto Cycle? 17:23 Chinese Property Bubble 33:14 Isn’t Bitcoin Illegal in China? 37:45 Fed’s Next Move 45:16 Politics & The Money Printer 49:42 Arthur’s Crypto Portfolio 50:33 ETH as Money? 1:01:42 Is ETH Dead? 1:02:20 Ethena 1:03:46 Memecoins 1:05:42 AI x Crypto 1:09:10 War Scenario 1:18:48 Arthur’s Advice 1:20:28 Closing & Disclaimers
------ RESOURCES
Arthur Hayes Blog https://cryptohayes.medium.com/
------ Not financial or tax advice. See our investment disclosures here: https://www.bankless.com/disclosures
How Arthur Hayes Has Prepared His Portfolio for the Elections - Ep. 728
As the 2024 U.S. election draws near, the crypto market is buzzing with speculation on what’s next. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, joins Unchained to discuss how Bitcoin and altcoins might react depending on who wins. Hayes shares his insights on election trade strategies, from the importance of sticking to the majors to his preference for Solana over Ethereum in the short term.
He also dives into whether Trump will fulfill his promises to the crypto community and drops a banger explanation on what could be the next Federal Reserve move. (Hint: it’s not about interest rates.)
Plus, Unchained reporter Veronica Irwin joins the show to discuss her latest scoops on Stand With Crypto’s scoring system and SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce’s stance on whether she would want to become Chair of the agency in replacement of Gary Gensler.
Show highlights:
01:39 How the market could react based on the election outcome
03:53 Has a Trump win been priced in? What if there’s no clear winner?
06:30 Arthur’s short-term trade strategy for the elections
13:00 Will Bitcoin surge, and is an altcoin rotation coming?
16:52 Why Arthur favors SOL over ETH right now
21:28 Whether Layer 2s are parasitic to Ethereum
24:19 Could crypto regulation reform come after the election?
26:12 Whether Trump would deliver on his promises to the crypto community
29:45 The election outlook for memecoins
30:52 Why traders should focus on high-cap AI memecoins
36:41 Why Arthur believes the Fed need to restart quantitative easing
47:55 How much money China will print to tackle its property crisis
52:21 Arthur’s take on Japan’s political shift and economic impact
54:44 Whether Stand With Crypto has been honest with the crypto community
56:20 A potential conflict of interest of one of the top executives
56:58 Stand With Crypto’s affiliation with PAC Fairshake
1:04:19 Whether Hester Peirce will become SEC Chair if Trump wins
1:08:27 Crypto News Recap
Visit our website for breaking news, analysis, op-eds, articles to learn about crypto, and much more: unchainedcrypto.com
Thank you to our sponsors!
Polkadot
Mantle’s FBTC
Guest
Arthur Hayes, Co-Founder of BitMEX and CIO at Maelstrom
Previous appearances on Unchained:
Arthur Hayes and Will Clemente on How This Bitcoin Halving Is Different
Arthur Hayes on Why Bitcoin Is Money and ETH Is a Shitcoin He Loves
Arthur Hayes, Former Ethereum Skeptic, on Why the Merge Makes Him Bullish on ETH
Arthur Hayes of Bitmex on Why Countries Will Turn to Digital
The Chopping Block: Arthur Hayes on Why Crypto Needs to Ditch the Banks
How Crypto and Blockchain Technology Could Change Financial Services
Links
Unchained:
Why You Might Have to Wait a Little Longer for a Crypto Bull Market
What Needs to Happen for Altcoins to Finally Pump: Report
Arthur’s latest blog post
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Chopping Block: World Liberty Financial, Liquidity Risks, and Global Crypto Adoption - Ep. 708
Welcome to The Chopping Block – where crypto insiders Haseeb Qureshi, Tom Schmidt, Tarun Chitra, and Robert Leshner chop it up about the latest in crypto. This week the squad is live from Token2049 in Singapore and joined by special guests Mo Shaikh, CEO and Co-Founder of Aptos Labs, and Arthur Hayes, CIO at Maelstrom. In this episode, they tackle the buzz around Trump’s DeFi projects, the challenges of hosting Token2049 during F1, and the controversy surrounding Iggy Azalea’s cancelled debate. The conversation also covers the macro impact of potential Fed rate cuts, the role of celebrity coins, and the future of global crypto adoption. Don't miss this insightful live discussion in front of the Token2049 audience!
Show highlights
🔹 Token2049 Event: Token2049 faced logistical challenges due to Singapore’s F1 weekend, resulting in heavy traffic and delays for attendees.
🔹 Canceled Celebrity Coin Debate: Iggy Azalea’s debate with Eric Wall about celebrity coins was canceled due to conflicts with Singaporean regulations, which prevented her planned on-stage stunts.
🔹 World Liberty Financial Overview: The Trump family’s DeFi project, World Liberty Financial, is scrutinized for its lack of clear direction and concerns over the 70% insider token pre-allocation.
🔹 Fed Rate Cuts and Market Implications: Potential Fed rate cuts and their impact on the dollar-yen exchange rate could lead to liquidity crises and increased market volatility.
🔹 Celebrity Coins and Memecoins: A look into celebrity coins and memecoins raises questions about their value, considering whether they bring meaningful attention to crypto or are merely speculative distractions.
🔹 Korea vs. Japan in Crypto: Korea’s active crypto trading culture and crypto-friendly policies contrast with Japan’s more cautious, restrictive approach, reflecting different market dynamics.
🔹 Global Crypto Adoption Rankings: Skepticism is expressed regarding India’s top spot in Chainalysis’ Global Crypto Adoption Index, with a case made for Korea ranking higher than 19th.
🔹 Aptos and Mainstream Adoption: Aptos is pushing for mainstream adoption through partnerships in Korea and innovations like the Aptos card, offering integrated cold storage and new financial products.
Hosts
⭐️Haseeb Qureshi, Managing Partner at Dragonfly
⭐️Tom Schmidt, General Partner at Dragonfly
⭐️Tarun Chitra, Managing Partner at Robot Ventures
Guest
⭐️ Mo Shaikh, CEO and Co-Founder of Aptos Labs
⭐️ Arthur Hayes, CIO at Maelstrom
Disclosures
Links
The 2024 Global Adoption Index: Central & Southern Asia and Oceania (CSAO) Region Leads the World in Terms of Global Cryptocurrency Adoption: https://www.chainalysis.com/blog/2024-global-crypto-adoption-index/
Timestamps
0:00 Intro
00:49 TOKEN2049
06:20 $10 Billion FDV? World Liberty Financial
16:10 Allure of Memecoins & Celebcoins
19:06 Beyond Memecoin Adoption
20:27 Global Crypto Adoption Ranking
24:43 Korea vs. Japan's Crypto Scenes
29:19 Macro Trends and Fed's Impact
35:26 Crypto's Resilience Against Regulation
40:00 The Future of Crypto and Decentralization
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Arthur Hayes and Will Clemente on How This Bitcoin Halving Is Different - Ep. 633
Listen to the episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Fountain, Overcast, Podcast Addict, Pocket Casts, Castbox, Google Podcasts, Amazon Music, or on your favorite podcast platform.
The Bitcoin halving is just around the corner, expected to be on April 19 or April 20.
Arthur Hayes, CIO of Maelstrom, and Will Clemente, co-founder of Reflexivity Research discuss the rise in Bitcoin prices ahead of the halving, the impact of the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US, and the potential effects of the halving on the price trajectory post-halving. They also discuss the potential impact of a new class of investors on Bitcoin's price, volatility, and decentralization.
Learn more: Bitcoin Halving: What Is It & How Is It Determined?
Moreover, they dive into the impact of the macroeconomics, geopolitical, and demographic conditions for the crypto asset industry, the potential for L2s on Bitcoin, and their price predictions for bitcoin by year-end.
Show highlights:
How the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs altered the price trajectory of BTC before the halving
Whether the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs impacts Bitcoin's decentralization and price volatility
Whether this cycle could be the "last cycle" or the "supercycle"
Why Arthur predicts a 90% drawdown in the future and how they determine when the markets are nearing the top of the cycle
The effect of high inflation, the election, and the termination of the bank term funding program on Bitcoin
How artificial intelligence is expected to trigger a productivity boom, according to Will
Why Will considers Coinbase to be mispriced
Whether Bitcoin L2s have a future and if security budgets are a concern
Their views on Bitcoin Ordinals and the Runes Protocol launch
Why Will views DOGE as a purer commodity than ETH
Arthur's rebuttal to claims that Ethena could follow in Terra/Luna’s footsteps
Arthur's and Will’s Bitcoin price projections for the end of the year and the cycle
Thank you to our sponsors!
Polkadot
Guest:
Arthur Hayes, CIO of Maelstrom.
Previous appearances on Unchained:
Arthur Hayes on Why Bitcoin Is Money and ETH Is a Shitcoin He Loves
Arthur Hayes, Former Ethereum Skeptic, on Why the Merge Makes Him Bullish on ETH
Arthur Hayes of Bitmex on Why Countries Will Turn to Digital
The Chopping Block: Arthur Hayes on Why Crypto Needs to Ditch the Banks
How Crypto and Blockchain Technology Could Change Financial Services
Will Clemente, Co-founder of Reflexivity Research
Previous appearance on Unchained: Strong Hands Aren't Selling Bitcoin. So Who Is?
Links
This cycle
Naval’s tweet: “The narrative for this cycle is ‘this is the last cycle.’”
Unchained:
Here’s Why No One Agrees Exactly When The Bitcoin Halving Will Happen
Bitcoin Miners Diversify Their Revenue Streams as Halving Nears
Heatwave by Arthur Hayes
Dissecting Bitcoin's “4 Year Cycle,” guest post by Will Clemente on The Pomp Letter
Bitcoin ETFs:
Unchained:
The Best Spot Bitcoin ETFs for Different Types of Investors
Who Is Buying Into Spot Bitcoin ETFs? We'll Soon Start to Get an Idea
Bitcoin ETFs Explained: What Are They & How Do They Work?
Macroeconomic conditions
CNBC: Consumer prices rose 3.5% from a year ago in March, more than expected
FT: Investors lose hope of rapid US interest rate cuts this year
Block size wars
Bloomberg: The Block War Is Still a Sore Subject for ‘Bitcoin Jesus’
Bitcoin L2s
Unchained: Stacks’ Muneeb Ali On Why Bitcoin Is Exciting Once Again
Runes
Decrypt: Bitcoin Runes Launch at the Halving: Here's Everything You Need to Know
Ethena
Hayes’ tweet on Ethena
Unchained:
ENA Surges 20% to New All-Time High as Ethena Rolls Out Reward Boosts
Ethena’s USDe Grew to $2 Billion in 7 Weeks. Is It Safe?
What Is Ethena's USDe Synethic Dollar?
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The Future of Stablecoins & Synthetic Dollars | Arthur Hayes & Guy Young (Ethena)
In today's episode we are joined by Arthur Hayes and Guy Young dive deep into the world of stablecoins and synthetic dollars. They discuss the counterparty risks associated with Ethena, a new synthetic dollar product, and how it aims to provide a decentralized alternative to traditional stablecoins like Tether and USDC. The conversation also touches on the challenges faced by algorithmic stablecoins, the potential impact of institutional investors entering the crypto space, and the exciting opportunities in the growing interest rate market within the crypto ecosystem. To close out Arthur shares where he thinks we are in the cycle. Thanks for tuning in!
- -
Follow Arthur: https://twitter.com/CryptoHayes
Follow Guy: https://twitter.com/leptokurtic_
Follow Jason: https://twitter.com/JasonYanowitz
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Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/
- -
Arbitrum is a game-changer for daily Ethereum's users and developers, offering top applications and lower fees. As the leading scaling solution with 600+ apps, explore Arbitrum’s Portal to find your perfect fit. Interact with the home of DeFi, a flourishing NFT and creator ecosystem, and a rapidly growing Web3 gaming hub – Arbitrum has it all.
Get started at:
portal.arbitrum.io
- -
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Secure your wallet for free at harpie.io.
- -
Join us at DAS (Digital Asset Summit) in London this March! DAS is the #1 institutional conference in crypto, hosted by Blockworks.
Use the link below to learn more, and use EMPIRE10 to get 10% off your ticket! Sign up now because the price goes up every month. See you there!
Learn more + get your ticket here: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london/home
- -
Timestamps:
(0:00) Arthur's Stablecoin Musings
(9:28) History of Tokenized Hedge Funds
(11:47) Ethena Overview
(16:34) Arbitrum Ad
(17:20) Harpie Ad
(18:33) Risks of Ethena
(24:25) USDe Yield over Time
(29:28) Defending a Cascade
(35:05) Rebranding USDe
(45:35) Minting & Redeeming Process
(48:14) Stablecoin Endgame
(1:00:39) Where are we in the cycle?
(1:09:09) Top Narratives this Cycle
- -
Disclaimer: Nothing said on Empire is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Santiago, Jason, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
Arthur Hayes on Why Bitcoin Is Money and ETH Is a Shitcoin He Loves - Ep. 587
Take the Unchained 2023 survey!
Listen to the episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Overcast, Podcast Addict, Pocket Casts, Pandora, Castbox, Google Podcasts, Amazon Music, or on your favorite podcast platform.
As 2023 nears its end, the crypto community is abuzz with speculation: will the relentless crypto winter give way in 2024? Crypto OG Arthur Hayes is confident that crypto is on an upswing. According to Hayes, these market cycles are historically recurrent, indicating a potential bull run in the near future.
In this episode, Hayes offers his insights on a range of compelling topics, from what he believes will be a resurgence of central bank money printing between 2024 and 2027 to the effect spot Bitcoin ETFs will have on crypto markets.
He also shares his views on the post-FTX blockchain landscape, the dynamics of Ethereum and memecoins, and why he thinks Tether won’t last.
Show highlights:
Why Arthur believes that central banks across the globe might resort to printing money again between 2024 and 2027
Why he's anticipating a bull run in the crypto market within the next year
Whether the financial system established post-World War II is on the verge of a breakdown
What Arthur recommends investors should do in the event of a spot Bitcoin ETF launch
Why he is confident that the launch of a Bitcoin ETF won't immediately lead to a massive surge in prices
How, according to Arthur, the collapse of FTX actually validated the resilience of the blockchain ecosystem
Whether the DCG crisis is likely to have a far-reaching impact on the crypto industry
Why Arthur maintains a bullish stance on ETH and the Ethereum ecosystem, despite labeling it a “shitcoin”
Whether he sees the use of the Bitcoin blockchain for trading memecoins (BRC-20s) as problematic
Why Arthur thinks Tether's dominance will be challenged with the entry of major U.S. banks into the stablecoin market
Why he firmly believes that AI systems will favor Bitcoin over traditional forms of money
Why, in Arthur's view, China may not aim to become the issuer of the global reserve currency
The investment strategy of Arthur’s family office, Maelstrom
Thank you to our sponsors!
Arbitrum Foundation
Uniswap
Popcorn Network
Guest
Arthur Hayes, CIO of Maelstrom.
Previous appearances on Unchained:
Arthur Hayes, Former Ethereum Skeptic, on Why the Merge Makes Him Bullish on ETH
Arthur Hayes of Bitmex on Why Countries Will Turn to Digital
The Chopping Block: Arthur Hayes on Why Crypto Needs to Ditch the Banks
How Crypto and Blockchain Technology Could Change Financial Services
Links
Macroeconomics
CoinDesk: The Relationship Between Bitcoin and Interest Rates Is Breaking Down: Arthur Hayes
Bad Gurl by Arthur Hayes
The Periphery by Arthur Hayes
Arthur Hayes’ tweet: “the U.S. banking crisis is back”
Bitcoin ETFs and markets
Forbes’ Billy Bambrough on Arthur Hayes’ hot ETF take - “If ETFs managed by TradFi asset managers are too successful, they will completely destroy Bitcoin.”
Blockworks: Institutional custody of bitcoin could kill it, cautions Hayes
Arthur’s tweet on cash or in-kind Bitcoin ETFs
Unchained: Why the SEC May Want Cash Creation of Spot Bitcoin ETFs
Arthur’s meme on BlackRock
SBF and FTX
White Boy by Arthur Hayes
White Man by Arthur Hayes
New York Magazine: The Original King of Crypto Is Back Arthur Hayes rubbed success in the Feds’ face and got busted. Now he’s returning to a shell-shocked industry.
CZ and Binance
Panda Power by Arthur Hayes
Unchained:
How Binance Will Open All Its Activity to the U.S. Government
Binance to Pay $4.3B Penalty to Resolve U.S. DOJ Criminal Investigation; Changpeng Zhao Resigns, Pleads Guilty to Money Laundering Charges
For more detail and links visit Unchained!
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Arthur Hayes Says, “Get your Bitcoin, and Get Out!”
You might know Arthur Hayes as perhaps THE dominant financial creative writer in crypto. When Arthur Hayes drops an article, it commands the attention of basically everyone in the industry.
And he’s done it again with his new piece, “Kaiseki,” which outlines one of the most chaotic and critical times in the macro and monetary landscape that we’ve seen, at least since 2008.
In today’s episode, Arthur walks us through his essay, why he believes Balaji’s $1M Bitcoin bet is wrong, how he’s navigating these tumultuous times, and so much more.
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🐙KRAKEN | MOST-TRUSTED CRYPTO EXCHANGE https://bankless.cc/kraken
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👻 PHANTOM | FRIENDLY MULTICHAIN WALLET https://bankless.cc/phantom-waitlist
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🚁 EARNIFI | CLAIM YOUR UNCLAIMED AIRDROPS https://bankless.cc/earnifi
------ Timestamps:
0:00 Intro 6:27 Arthur’s Recent, “Kaiseki” Essay 13:09 Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) 18:08 Effect on the Banking Sector 24:30 Current State of the Banking Sector 30:44 Should We Support BTFP? 39:11 What’s Going to Happen to Crypto? 46:56 Sending Bitcoin to $1M 55:05 Effects on Expanding Variables 57:35 Who Takes the Loss? 1:00:00 Rampant Inflation Worldwide & Fiat 1:03:36 Swap Lines 1:06:07 Punchlines & Endgame 1:09:25 Everyone is a Speculator 1:10:49 What Will Arthur Hayes Do? 1:13:36 Closing & Disclaimers
------ Resources:
Arthur Hayes https://twitter.com/CryptoHayes
Arthur’s Recent, “Kaiseki” Essay https://entrepreneurshandbook.co/kaiseki-b15230bdd09e
----- Not financial or tax advice. This channel is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. This video is not tax advice. Talk to your accountant. Do your own research.
Disclosure. From time-to-time I may add links in this newsletter to products I use. I may receive commission if you make a purchase through one of these links. Additionally, the Bankless writers hold crypto assets. See our investment disclosures here: https://www.bankless.com/disclosures
The Chopping Block: Arthur Hayes on Why Crypto Needs to Ditch the Banks - Ep. 466
BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes, fresh out of home confinement after settling charges with the U.S. government, joins “The Chopping Block” with Haseeb Qureshi, Robert Leshner, and Tarun Chitra. The early crypto pioneer pulls no punches in his assessment of SBF, TradFi’s failings, and how crypto traders lost the plot in trusting CeFi middlemen.
Show highlights:
why Arthur travels with stuffed animals, and what his favorite brands are
what factors led Sam Bankman-Fried to success
how Bill Clinton seems to be related to many multibillion-dollar downfalls
whether everyone in crypto thinks that prices are eventually going up
what’s the thesis behind Maelstrom, Arthur’s new investment arm
why he’s bullish on decentralization but also game to trade “dog shit”
what the impact of Silvergate’s failure will be on the crypto industry
what would Arthur have done if he was the CEO of Silvergate
the role of rising interest rates in understanding Silvergate’s downfall
why holding Tether’s USDT is not so different from USDC
why crypto needs alternatives to dollar-backed stablecoins
the real reasons why the U.S. Treasury is worried about stablecoins
Hosts
Haseeb Qureshi, managing partner at Dragonfly
Tarun Chitra, managing partner at Robot Ventures
Robert Leshner, founder of Compound
Guest
Arthur Hayes, cofounder of BitMEX
Twitter
Medium
Disclosures
Links
Unchained:
Silvergate to Wind Down Operations in ‘Voluntary Liquidation’
Silvergate Confers With FDIC to Avoid Closing Down: Report
Silvergate Shuts Down Crypto Payments Network
Bloomberg: Silvergate Had a Crypto Bank Run
NYMAG: Arthur Hayes, the Original King of Crypto, Is Back.
Arthur’s posts:
White Boy
Dust on Crust
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Trading the Merge | Arthur Hayes
✨ DEBRIEF ✨ | Find out why 1D = 1B: https://shows.banklesshq.com/p/debrief-arthur-hayes
----- This episode has been a long time coming. Arthur Hayes is the crypto trader of traders, and he's particularly bullish on the ETH trade.
Today, he tells us why.
We've been binging Arthur's writing lately, trying to get inside his head about how he approaches the markets.
Discussing the inevitability of inflation, the chaotic macro picture, and of course the Ethereum Merge, we piece together the mindset of a trader who has survived the massacre of 2022.
Do you agree with Arthur? Let us know in the comments or on Twitter @banklesshq
------ 📣 ConsenSys | Mint a Merge NFT! https://bankless.cc/themerge
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------ BANKLESS SPONSOR TOOLS:
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🦁 BRAVE | THE BROWSER NATIVE WALLET https://bankless.cc/Brave
🌴 MAKER DAO | DECENTRALIZED LENDING https://bankless.cc/MakerDAO
🔐 LEDGER | SECURE STAKING https://bankless.cc/Ledger
------ Topics Covered:
0:00 Arthur Hayes 6:30 Arthur’s Prolific Writing 12:55 Why Arthur is a Trader 19:10 What’s Causing Inflation? 26:00 The Only Solution 30:11 Structural Inflation 38:09 The Macro Landscape 44:24 Why Crypto? 50:44 Denominate in Hydrocarbons 58:30 The Ethereum Merge 1:02:30 Is the Merge Priced In? 1:04:30 Crypto Markets 1:06:47 Target ETH Prices 1:08:20 What’s Different? 1:11:58 Making the ETH Trade 1:15:45 Merge vs Macro 1:18:26 DeFi and Arthur’s Conversion 1:22:15 The 2022 Retail Massacre 1:24:30 Surviving as a Trader 1:27:50 Arthur IRL
------ Resources:
Arthur on Twitter: https://twitter.com/CryptoHayes?s=20&t=fz4N1B7Ifa3OY-tD6l6jhw
Arthur's Blog: https://cryptohayes.medium.com/
ETH-flexive: https://cryptohayes.medium.com/eth-flexive-7e1921123f64
A Samurai, a Knight, and a Yankee: https://entrepreneurshandbook.co/a-samurai-a-knight-and-a-yankee-211bf975a31d
----- Not financial or tax advice. This channel is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. This video is not tax advice. Talk to your accountant. Do your own research.
Arthur Hayes, Former Ethereum Skeptic, on Why the Merge Makes Him Bullish on ETH - Ep. 393
Arthur Hayes, cofounder of BitMex, discusses how he’s trading the Merge, the impact of macroeconomic policy in the markets, his career as a writer, and much more.
Show highlights: how crypto is reconfiguring how humans do finance over the internet
why Arthur initially thought Ethereum was worthless
how NFTs allow users to trade human culture and will unlock trillions of dollars of value
why Ethereum doesn’t even need to be deflationary
whether other layer 1s can take some market cap from Ethereum
why Arthur thinks that a successful Merge is understated and why this is a valid reason for hedging
why he thinks an Ethereum proof of work chain won’t succeed and how Arthur will trade ETHPoW
why LDO, Lido’s token, is a riskier bet but has more potential gains
how he believes the Shanghai upgrade will impact ETH’s price
whether the Merge affects BTC’s narrative as digital gold and whether the inflation hedge theory of Bitcoin still holds
why Bitcoin is a measure of USD liquidity and why the Fed rates don’t matter as much as everyone thinks
whether hedge funds and institutional investors would want to invest in crypto given the high correlation with traditional markets
what Arthur believes the impact of a potential US recession would be on the crypto markets
why he believes the real economy is not relevant to the financial markets
whether algorithmic stablecoins are doomed to fail
how the credit cycle works and how it repeats again and again
Arthur’s method for identifying good projects to invest in
how Arthur became such a good writer
whether BTC is money and the religious aspect of the Bitcoin culture
Thank you to our sponsors! Crypto.com
Ava Labs
a16z
Arthur: Twitter
Medium
Episode Links
Previous Coverage on Unchained: With the Merge, Will Ethereum Take Over Bitcoin’s Title as Digital Gold?
Why Kevin Zhou Believes Ethereum Will Have 3 Forks After the Merge
Post-Merge, If Lido Becomes Dominant, What Does That Mean for Ethereum?
Arthur’s posts discussed during the show: Eth-Flexive
Ether, a double digit shitcoin
Teach me Daddy (on USD liquidity and Macroeconomics)
Macroeconomics: Adam Cochran on the Fed’s QT
Pantera Capital’s newsletter
ETH Trade: Whether Ethereum’s Merge is priced in
Gauntlet’s view on the Merge
BTC correlation with stocks
ETH Post-Merge Dynamics: Cumberland on the Ethereum dynamics after the merge
Miles Suter on the implications of the Merge
The triple point asset
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How Crypto and Blockchain Technology Could Change Financial Services - Ep.97
This is a special episode of Unchained from the CME Global Leadership Conference in Naples, Florida. There, I spoke with Arthur Hayes, CoFounder and CEO of Bitmex, Dan O’Prey, chief marketing officer of Digital Asset, and Alexis Ohanian, Co-Founder & Executive Chairman, Reddit and Co-Founder of Initialized Capital. We cover how public and permissioned chains will compete or complement each other, how blockchain technology will affect incumbent financial services, and how it has already proven itself (hint: as a store of value is one answer). We discuss whether or not crypto represents a new asset class, why the crypto winter is helping to improve the space, and what the launch of Bakkt and Fidelity Digital Assets could mean going forward.
Thank you to our sponsors!
CipherTrace: https://ciphertrace.com/unchained
Microsoft: https://twitter.com/MSFTBlockchain
Episode links
CME's Global Financial Leadership Conference: https://www.gflc.com
Arthur Hayes: https://twitter.com/cryptohayes
Bitmex: https://www.bitmex.com
Dan O'Prey: https://www.linkedin.com/in/danoprey/
Digital Asset: https://www.digitalasset.com
Alexis Ohanian: https://twitter.com/alexisohanian
Initialized Capital: https://initialized.com
Unconfirmed episode with Tom Jessop's Fidelity Digital Assets: http://unconfirmed.libsyn.com/fidelity-digital-asset-services-tom-jessop-on-why-its-serving-institutional-clients-first-ep043
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Arthur Hayes of Bitmex on Why Countries Will Turn to Digital Cash - Ep.63
Arthur Hayes, CEO of Bitmex, describes how traders on his platform can make great gains but experience limited losses, how Asia's crypto markets differ from those in the U.S., and why he makes money whether or not crypto prices go up or down. He also describes why ICOs are crap now but why he fully supports the idea in theory and how they should get back to their roots. He also explains why he believes governments will issue digital cash, and why he believes everyday people will be surveilled through these transactions, but will give up this privacy for the sake of convenience. And where does he see this leaving cryptocurrencies? To become needed to transact privately.
Bitmex: https://www.bitmex.com/
Arthur Hayes: https://www.bitmex.com/app/aboutUs
Bitmex blog, with detailed research reports: https://blog.bitmex.com/
Arthur's Crypto Trader Digest: https://us3.campaign-archive.com/?u=db45c09bdf20e1866bb32123f&id=ac43da8d18
Thank you to our sponsors!
Blockchain Warehouse: https://www.blockchainwarehouse.com/
Preciate: https://preciate.org/recognize/
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