The Economy Looks Fine. Why Doesn’t It Feel Fine?
Americans feel pessimistic about the economy even as the stock market soars and unemployment remains low. Kara speaks with a panel of economic experts to explain the disconnect. She’s joined by Atlantic staff writer Annie Lowrey, Catherine Rampell of MS NOW and The Bulwark and economist Claudia Sahm.
They examine the impact of President Trump’s latest round of tariffs, the economic fallout from the Iran war and the hidden weaknesses in the current labor market.
Plus: How vulnerable is the broader economy to an AI bubble? And what happens when economic growth increasingly benefits investors rather than workers?
Questions? Comments? Email us at on@voxmedia.com or find us on YouTube, Instagram, TikTok, Threads, and Bluesky @onwithkaraswisher.
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Lots More With Claudia Sahm on What the Sahm Rule Is Saying Now
The Federal Reserve appears to be ready to pivot into rate cutting mode. Inflation has come down significantly, and the unemployment rate has been trending upward for most of the year. In fact, in the most recent Non-Farm Payrolls report, the headline unemployment rate of 4.3% triggered the so-called "Sahm Rule," which has been a historically reliable signal that the US is already in a recession. So are we in a recession? Could the rule be wrong this time due the unique features of this economic cycle? How should the Fed weigh the risks that we see in front of us? On this episode of Lots More, we speak with the rule's creator, Clauda Sahm, Bloomberg Opinion contributor and the chief economist at New Century Advisors. She explains why the signal this time could be misleading, but also why — regardless of whether we're in a recession or not — the Fed must be on guard for a weakening labor market.
Read More:
My Recession Rule Was Meant to Be Broken
What’s the Sahm Rule? Is It Warning of a Recession?
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Big Take DC: Economists May Be Using Bad Data to Make Big Decisions
Today's episode is a special edition of Bloomberg's Big Take DC podcast, featuring an interview with our own Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway. They spoke to Big Take host Saleha Mohsin of Bloomberg News, about how the US has managed to avoid a recession — and whether the Federal Reserve’s decisions were based on reliable data. It also features an interview with Claudia Sahm, an ex-Fed economist and contributor to Bloomberg Opinion. To hear more from Big Take DC, subscribe to their show.
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Lots More with Claudia Sahm
This week on Lots More, we speak with Claudia Sahm, the former Federal Reserve economist and founder of Sahm Consulting, about the recent uptick in the US unemployment rate. We discuss the implications for the Sahm Rule, the early recession indicator she discovered and which has been a hot topic since the most recent Nonfarm Payrolls report. We also talk about data challenges for economists, the prospect of recession, and dealing with online commenters.
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How To Stop The Recession From Happening Right Now
The U.S. is on the verge of an economic crisis due to the coronavirus, as people and businesses aggressively pull back on spending. On this week's Odd Lots podcast, we speak with Claudia Sahm, the director of Macroeconomic Policy at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, about what the government can be doing right now to stop a recession. Claudia has done extensive research on exactly this topic, and now is the moment to put her theoretical work into practice.
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How To Use Fiscal Stimulus To Stave Off The Next Recession
There's a growing consensus that governments need to act more aggressively in using fiscal policy to stave off the next recession, and that monetary policy simply isn't powerful enough. But how do you actually go about it? What do you spend the money on, and how do you get politicians to disburse it in a timely manner? On this week's Odd Lots, we speak with Claudia Sahm, a former Fed economist who is now at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, on ways to systematize and automate an early and aggressive fiscal response to economic weakness. Sahm has achieved fame for her so-called "Sahm Rule" which can provide policymakers with an early warning sign of when a recession might be brewing.
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