Lots More With Claudia Sahm on What the Sahm Rule Is Saying Now
Show notes
The Federal Reserve appears to be ready to pivot into rate cutting mode. Inflation has come down significantly, and the unemployment rate has been trending upward for most of the year. In fact, in the most recent Non-Farm Payrolls report, the headline unemployment rate of 4.3% triggered the so-called "Sahm Rule," which has been a historically reliable signal that the US is already in a recession. So are we in a recession? Could the rule be wrong this time due the unique features of this economic cycle? How should the Fed weigh the risks that we see in front of us? On this episode of Lots More, we speak with the rule's creator, Clauda Sahm, Bloomberg Opinion contributor and the chief economist at New Century Advisors. She explains why the signal this time could be misleading, but also why — regardless of whether we're in a recession or not — the Fed must be on guard for a weakening labor market. Read More: My Recession Rule Was Meant to Be Broken What’s the Sahm Rule? Is It Warning of a Recession? Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Analysis: done · source seed