Reflexivity Research

Analysts Will Clemente, Joe Vezzani and Marcus Wu share their Bitcoin outlook amidst war. Plus, Will shares his thesis on Gen Z’s future, and Marcus previews his Bitcoin game theory model. Thank you to our sponsors! ⁠Nexo ⁠Crypto Tax Girl Bitcoin's price has largely held steady despite President Donald Trump's escalation of hostilities with Iran. Is this the bottom signal the market has been waiting for? STIX investments chief Will Clemente, LunarCrush co-founder Joe Vezzani and Delphi Digital Research Analyst Marcus Wu explain why it looks like Bitcoin is bottoming, why a 10/10-style crash would have happened in crypto even without the Binance glitch, and why, regardless of the Jane Street rumors, it’s not beyond Wall Street to manipulate an asset. They also address speculation that Jane Street has been suppressing Bitcoin's price and how AI's rapid advancement could impact crypto in light of Citrini Research's article and Jack Dorsey's Block layoffs. Don't miss Joe's reasoning on why Trump could come to the market's rescue and Will's thesis on why zoomers face four unique financial and technological challenges. Plus Marcus also previews his new game theory model for trading the Bitcoin market. Guest: ⁠Marcus Wu, Research Analyst at Delphi Digital Joe Vezzani, Co-founder and CEO of LunarCrush Will Clemente, Investments at STIX Previous appearances on Unchained: Bitcoin Crashed Below $100K, But Smart Money Is Buying the Dip Strong Hands Aren't Selling Bitcoin. So Who Is? - Ep. 183 Arthur Hayes and Will Clemente on the 2024 Bitcoin Halving Links: Unchained:⁠⁠ Why Gold Rose and Bitcoin Tumbled on Japan Bond Turmoil Is Nic Carter Exaggerating Bitcoin’s Quantum Risk? Yes, Says One Core Dev Bitcoin Rebounds as ETF Inflows Return, Jane Street Speculation Swirls Terraform Estate Targets Jane Street in Explosive Terra Collapse Lawsuit Crypto’s Black Friday Was Its Largest Liquidation Ever. What the Hell Happened? Will’s essay Climbing a Broken Ladder: A message to my fellow Zoomers Marcus’s Bitcoin game theory model Bitcoin Game Theory on Delphi Digital Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Will Clemente

Co-Founder

STIXReflexivity Research

Joe Vezzani

Co-founder

LunarCrush

Marcus Wu

Research Analyst

Delphi Digital

Gm! This week Will Clemente joins the show to discuss what's next for crypto. We deep dive into the Bitcoin thesis, Will's highest conviction trades in crypto, Microstrategy, BTC miners, the election impact, memecoins & much more. Enjoy! -- Follow Will: https://x.com/WClementeIII Follow Avi: https://twitter.com/AviFelman Follow Jonah: https://twitter.com/jvb_xyz Follow 1000x: https://twitter.com/1000xPod Join the 1000x Telegram: https://t.me/+fz-2f0cwC6o0MWNh -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Timestamps: (0:00) Introduction (8:05) The Bitcoin Thesis (12:19) Best Trades In Crypto (18:23) Microstrategy: The Big Long (21:55) BTC Miners (30:48) BTC, The Trump Trade & VC Coins (43:04) Meme's (59:45) What's Next For Crypto Into 2025? (1:03:55) Crypto Leverage (1:06:59) Rapid Fire Questions -- Disclaimer: Nothing said on 1000x is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Avi, Jonah and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed

Will Clemente

Co-Founder

STIXReflexivity Research

Listen to the episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Fountain, Overcast, Podcast Addict, Pocket Casts, Castbox, Google Podcasts, Amazon Music, or on your favorite podcast platform. The Bitcoin halving is just around the corner, expected to be on April 19 or April 20.  Arthur Hayes, CIO of Maelstrom, and Will Clemente, co-founder of Reflexivity Research discuss the rise in Bitcoin prices ahead of the halving, the impact of the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US, and the potential effects of the halving on the price trajectory post-halving. They also discuss the potential impact of a new class of investors on Bitcoin's price, volatility, and decentralization.  Learn more: Bitcoin Halving: What Is It & How Is It Determined? Moreover, they dive into the impact of the macroeconomics, geopolitical, and demographic conditions for the crypto asset industry, the potential for L2s on Bitcoin, and their price predictions for bitcoin by year-end.  Show highlights: How the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs altered the price trajectory of BTC before the halving Whether the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs impacts Bitcoin's decentralization and price volatility Whether this cycle could be the "last cycle" or the "supercycle" Why Arthur predicts a 90% drawdown in the future and how they determine when the markets are nearing the top of the cycle The effect of high inflation, the election, and the termination of the bank term funding program on Bitcoin How artificial intelligence is expected to trigger a productivity boom, according to Will Why Will considers Coinbase to be mispriced Whether Bitcoin L2s have a future and if security budgets are a concern Their views on Bitcoin Ordinals and the Runes Protocol launch Why Will views DOGE as a purer commodity than ETH Arthur's rebuttal to claims that Ethena could follow in Terra/Luna’s footsteps Arthur's and Will’s Bitcoin price projections for the end of the year and the cycle Thank you to our sponsors! Polkadot Guest: Arthur Hayes, CIO of Maelstrom. Previous appearances on Unchained: Arthur Hayes on Why Bitcoin Is Money and ETH Is a Shitcoin He Loves Arthur Hayes, Former Ethereum Skeptic, on Why the Merge Makes Him Bullish on ETH  Arthur Hayes of Bitmex on Why Countries Will Turn to Digital The Chopping Block: Arthur Hayes on Why Crypto Needs to Ditch the Banks How Crypto and Blockchain Technology Could Change Financial Services Will Clemente, Co-founder of Reflexivity Research Previous appearance on Unchained: Strong Hands Aren't Selling Bitcoin. So Who Is?  Links This cycle Naval’s tweet: “The narrative for this cycle is ‘this is the last cycle.’” Unchained:  Here’s Why No One Agrees Exactly When The Bitcoin Halving Will Happen Bitcoin Miners Diversify Their Revenue Streams as Halving Nears Heatwave by Arthur Hayes Dissecting Bitcoin's “4 Year Cycle,” guest post by Will Clemente on The Pomp Letter Bitcoin ETFs: Unchained:  The Best Spot Bitcoin ETFs for Different Types of Investors Who Is Buying Into Spot Bitcoin ETFs? We'll Soon Start to Get an Idea Bitcoin ETFs Explained: What Are They & How Do They Work?  Macroeconomic conditions CNBC: Consumer prices rose 3.5% from a year ago in March, more than expected FT: Investors lose hope of rapid US interest rate cuts this year Block size wars Bloomberg: The Block War Is Still a Sore Subject for ‘Bitcoin Jesus’  Bitcoin L2s Unchained: Stacks’ Muneeb Ali On Why Bitcoin Is Exciting Once Again  Runes Decrypt: Bitcoin Runes Launch at the Halving: Here's Everything You Need to Know Ethena Hayes’ tweet on Ethena Unchained:  ENA Surges 20% to New All-Time High as Ethena Rolls Out Reward Boosts Ethena’s USDe Grew to $2 Billion in 7 Weeks. Is It Safe? What Is Ethena's USDe Synethic Dollar? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Arthur Hayes

Co-Founder & CIO

MaelstromBitMEX

Will Clemente

Co-Founder

STIXReflexivity Research

Will Clemente, author of the BTC by WC3 newsletter, breaks down the current state of Bitcoin’s on-chain activity and explains why he believes the market is in a mid-cycle lull rather than turning bearish. Show highlights:  why Will is not worried about a bear market what indicators make Will believe BTC is in a mid-cycle consolidation who is selling and driving the recent market downturn why Will thinks the unwinding of derivatives is a significant factor in Bitcoin’s move below $30K what Will believe institutions are waiting on before entering the market again how Bitcoin cycles can be broken down into mini hype-cycles how long-term holders are acting on-chain the difference between long-term holders versus short-term holders during bear and bull markets why Will is interested in finding data on Latin American Bitcoin users how long the consolidation process might take what metrics Will has his eyes on for the latter half of 2021   Thank you to our sponsors! Crypto.com: https://crypto.onelink.me/J9Lg/unchainedcardearnfeb2021    Oasis: https://oasisprotocol.org NEAR: https://near.org    Episode Links:   Will Clemente Twitter: https://twitter.com/WClementeIII Newsletter: https://btcbywc3.substack.com/   Miscellaneous Links Unchained w/ Willy Woo and Raphael Shultze-Kraft: https://unchainedpodcast.com/will-bitcoins-price-go-up-again-yes-according-to-on-chain-analytics/  Willy Woo and Will Clemente ratio: https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1407403983023460354 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Will Clemente

Co-Founder

STIXReflexivity Research

Empire is on pause this week. For now, enjoy Crypto Data 101 with Will Clemente. See you next week for part 2 with Dan! In this special episode, Will and I talk about why retail is buying when whales are selling, and how the 2021 bull run looks like 2013. Will built a steady following on Twitter this year with his market predictions and analytics, and predicts an eventual $300k Bitcoin. ––– LUKKA Lukka Prime is crypto asset pricing data aligned to accounting standards like GAAP and IFRS. Lukka Prime Pricing Data is the pricing source used by S&P Dow Jones Indices’ for their new cryptocurrency indices. Lukka Prime is the world’s first fair market value pricing source for crypto assets and the best option for all post-trade reporting needs. Visit lukka.tech/empire to learn more. ––– EXODUS Download the app today at http://exodus.com/empire and iOS users can buy up to $500 in Bitcoin for just $1 for a limited time. ––– Empire is brought to you by Blockworks. For the next 24 hours, you can get tickets to DAS before the price increases on Friday. Act soon! https://blockworks.co/events/ For more podcasts like this one, check out http://blockworks.co/podcasts. Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @JasonYanowitz and let me know what you thought of the show!

Will Clemente

Co-Founder

STIXReflexivity Research