Is the Cycle Over, Portfolio Psychology, & Prediction Market Alpha
This week, Jonah & Avi from the 1000x podcast join Jason live in the Blockworks studio to discuss whether the crypto cycle is truly over, OGs selling vs new whales entering, and how we manage our portfolios. We also dive into Robinhood’s long-term potential, our favorite crypto projects, finding edge in prediction markets and much more. Enjoy!
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Follow Jason: https://x.com/JasonYanowitz
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Join the 1000x Telegram: https://t.me/+fz-2f0cwC6o0MWNh
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(00:00) Introduction
(02:34) Is the Cycle Over?
(07:57) Crypto Disrupting TradFi Rails
(09:570 Ads (Blockdaemon, Katana)
(11:22) OGs Selling
(14:33) Easiest Trade in Crypto?
(16:34) Crypto PTSD & Profit-Taking Psychology
(22:40) Portfolio Management
(29:19) Ads (Blockdaemon, Katana)
(30:43) Most Attractive Crypto Bets
(33:47) Prediction Markets & Gambling
(38:17) Crypto Wash Trading
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Empire is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Santiago, Jason, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
Building the Perfect Crypto Portfolio | Avi Felman & Roshun Patel
In this episode, Santi & Jason talk with Avi and Ro about the current state of the crypto market cycle in both private and liquid markets. They discuss Avi's "bearish" outlook driven by diminishing ETF inflows and stablecoin market caps, Ro's perspective on crywpto venture investing, and how this cycle compares to the last one. The conversation dives into the Solana IOUs auction, the upcoming Ethereum ETF catalyst, and the (un)productive nature of assets like Eigen Layer's restaking product and Bitcoin DeFi. Avi and Ro also outline their framework for crypto portfolio construction and the key indicators they watch. The episode concludes with their 12-month price predictions for BTC, ETH and SOL.
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Follow Avi: https://twitter.com/AviFelman
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Bridge to SKALE at portal.skale.space and stay up to date with the gasless blockchain at @skalenetwork
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https://blckwrks.co/Marinade
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(04:28) Avi's Bearish Take
(09:41) Ro's Private Market Perspective
(16:42) Ethereum's Bull Case
(27:42) Private & Liquid Ratio
(36:49) Arbitrum Ad
(37:26) Aura Ad
(38:25) Marinade Ad
(39:29) SKALE ad
(40:46) Solana's Trade
(45:44) Cycle Timing & Comparison
(54:23) Fundamentals of DeFi
(01:01:06) What Everyone is Missing?
(01:11:14) Price Predictions
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Empire is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Santiago, Jason, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
A Paradigm Shift: Chaos Fuels BTC’s Fire | Avi Felman, Jonah Van Bourg
In this episode of Empire, Avi Felman and Jonah Van Bourg explain how macro and banking turmoil has ignited a market paradigm shift. Funds will be hunting for the assets that will perform well in this new paradigm, and it won't be bonds... Tune in as we discuss BTC's prime moment, why supply is the story of 2023, BTC vs ETH, the USDC depeg and more. If you listen to one Empire episode this year, this is it!
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:06) The market is consistently wrong
(07:24) A new paradigm and BTC's opportunity
(27:14) Bitcoin vs ETH vs Alts
(35:34) Quicknode
(37:19) The implications of USDC's depeg
(38:05) What other trades are you watching?
(45:27) Expected sources of leverage in the next cycle
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Follow Jonah: https://twitter.com/jvb_xyz
Follow Avi: https://twitter.com/AviFelman
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Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/
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This episode is brought to you by Quicknode. QuickNode is an end-to-end blockchain developer platform that makes building Web3 apps easy. Go to QuickNode.com and use code Empire for a free month on their feature-packed Build Plan!
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Resources
GoldenTree
https://www.goldentree.com/
Cumberland
https://cumberland.io/
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Empire is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Santiago, Jason, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
Smart Money Finds Opportunity Post Catastrophe | Avi Felman, Jonah Van Bourg
In this episode of Empire, Jason is joined by Avi Felman and Jonah Van Bourg to discuss their new podcast 1000x and the state of crypto markets. Avi and Jonah explain their trading mindset, how to evaluate the buyers/sellers in the market, crypto's investment cycle, how catastrophe creates opportunity and more!
A new 1000x episode will drop on Empire's RSS feed and the 1000x YouTube channel every two weeks. Links below!
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:07) 1000x Podcast Launch
(04:33) Market Outlook
(07:48) Who’s Buying, Who’s Selling?
(18:10) Crypto’s Investment Cycle
(21:10) How Are People Positioned Right Now?
(23:23) Leverage In The System
(25:05) Trading Around Governance Events
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Follow Jonah: https://twitter.com/jvb_xyz
Follow Avi: https://twitter.com/AviFelman
Follow Jason: https://twitter.com/JasonYanowitz
Follow Empire: https://twitter.com/theempirepod
Follow 1000x: https://twitter.com/1000xPod
Subscribe on YouTube: https://tinyurl.com/4fdhhb2j
Subscribe on Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mv4frfv7
Subscribe on Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/wbaypprw
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/
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Circle’s USDC has quickly become one of the most trusted and widely used stablecoins because of its composability, stability and reserve transparency. As a seamless, trusted digital currency, USDC is a zero-to-one opportunity for the global financial system. Check out their Transparency Hub at http://empirepodcast.link/circle that outlines everything from links to USDC weekly reserve reports, monthly attestations, and blog posts written by their executive team highlighting how and why USDC was built the way it is.
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Resources
1000x YouTube channel
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCEAwYFRFUuekaEmKz4oiB_A
The Prize
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/169354.The_Prize
Sushi's protocol fee proposal
https://bit.ly/3FWvOkA
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Empire is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Santiago, Jason, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
Inside the mind of crypto’s top traders | Dan Matuszewski (CMS) & Avi Felman
Attend DAS, crypto and macro’s favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/
Use code EMPIRE250 to get $250 off tickets (Only available this week!)
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In this episode of Empire, Jason and Mike are joined by Dan Matuszewski (CMS Holdings) & Avi Felman (GoldenTree). If you don't know these two names, don't forget them - two of the best traders and sources of alpha in crypto.
This episode is one of my favorites yet; check out the highlights below:
- Is macro crypto's master
- This will lead to crypto's divergence with Macro
- How will ETH perform with the merge
- What are the new, hidden narratives
- The tradeoff between CeFi and DeFi
- Is DeFi ready to take off
- Retail open-term lending is dead
- Regulators have two options
- Why VCs are in trouble
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Follow Dan: https://twitter.com/cmsholdings
Follow Avi: https://twitter.com/AviFelman
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(00:00) Introduction
(01:08) The intersection of macro & crypto
(12:47) How Will ETH's Price React to the Merge?
(17:50) New Narratives & Market Leverage
(25:28) A Catalyst for DeFi
(29:10) What's About to Happen in CeFi?
(31:37) Your DeFi Project Isn't Sexy
(35:45) Can DeFi Tokens Accure Value?
(41:23) Why You Should Avoid Low Float Tokens
(44:27) VCs Are In Trouble
(49:20) Avi and Dan Run Wild
(51:06) Wrapping Things Up
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Empire is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Santiago, Jason, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
Avi Felman explains his decision-making process for trading headlines in crypto
Avi Felman's eyes are glued to his trading screen, waiting for market-moving headlines that could be prime opportunities to put on a multi-million crypto trade.
These past few weeks have been especially active for the portfolio manager, who joined crypto investment firm BlockTower in November 2019. Felman, who co-leads the firm's flagship fund, navigated price gyrations stemming from macro and industry news, ranging from headlines that government officials recovered funds from Bitfinex's 2016 hack to more recent news that Russia could invade neighbor Ukraine.
On this episode of The Scoop, Felman explained the decision-making process that goes into making a trade on headlines, using reports that Russia was on the verge of invading Ukraine as one case study example.
"I know that the context is that the Biden administration has been warning about Russia for quite some time," he said. "I know that bitcoin doesn't like uncertainty. I read the headline as being extremely uncertain."
Whether a certain news event adds uncertainty is just one factor Felman considers. Timing is equally important.
"Okay, I want to make a trade and this all happens in the span of, you have to think, about 15 to 30 seconds," he explained. "You need to make those connections. Then I need to start de-risking a little bit."
In some instances, Felman takes a cue from the S&P 500, which has been moving very closely with bitcoin despite the crypto's reputation as a hedge asset.
"The vast majority of time the bitcoin decouples from the S&P, it's because of a delayed reaction," he said. "It's because bitcoin has some idiosyncratic crypto native bidder that isn't paying attention to broader risk."
...For more visit Theblockcrypto.com/podcasts
Episode 9 of Season 4 of The Scoop was recorded remotely with The Block’s Frank Chaparro and Avi Felman, Co-Portfolio Manager at Blocktower Capital.
Listen below, and subscribe to The Scoop on Apple, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher or wherever you listen to podcasts. Email feedback and revision requests to podcast@theblockcrypto.com.
This episode is brought to you by our sponsors Fireblocks, Coinbase Prime & Chainalysis
Fireblocks is an enterprise-grade platform delivering a secure infrastructure for moving, storing, and issuing digital assets. Fireblocks enables exchanges, lending desks, custodians, banks, trading desks, and hedge funds to securely scale digital asset operations through the Fireblocks Network and MPC-based Wallet Infrastructure. Fireblocks serves over 725 financial institutions, has secured the transfer of over $1.5 trillion in digital assets, and has a unique insurance policy that covers assets in storage & transit. For more information, please visit www.fireblocks.com.
About Coinbase Prime
Coinbase Prime is an integrated solution that provides institutional investors with an advanced trading platform, secure custody, and prime services to manage all their crypto assets in one place. Coinbase Prime fully integrates crypto trading and custody on a single platform, and gives clients the best all-in pricing in their network using their proprietary Smart Order Router and algorithmic execution. For more information, visit www.coinbase.com/prime.
About Chainalysis
Chainalysis is the blockchain data platform. We provide data, software, services, and research to government agencies, exchanges, financial institutions, and insurance and cybersecurity companies in over 60 countries. Our data powers investigation, compliance, and market intelligence software that has been used to solve some of the world’s most high-profile criminal cases and grow consumer access to cryptocurrency safely. Backed by Accel, Addition, Benchmark, Coatue, Paradigm, Ribbit, and other leading firms in venture capital, Chainalysis builds trust in blockchains to promote more financial freedom with less risk. For more information, visit www.chainalysis.com.