Is the Cycle Over, Portfolio Psychology, & Prediction Market Alpha
This week, Jonah & Avi from the 1000x podcast join Jason live in the Blockworks studio to discuss whether the crypto cycle is truly over, OGs selling vs new whales entering, and how we manage our portfolios. We also dive into Robinhood’s long-term potential, our favorite crypto projects, finding edge in prediction markets and much more. Enjoy!
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Go follow the new 1000x feed to keep up to date with all new episodes!
Spotify: https://bit.ly/4676Sob
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Follow Jason: https://x.com/JasonYanowitz
Follow Avi: https://x.com/AviFelman
Follow Jonah: https://x.com/jvb_xyz
Follow 1000x: https://x.com/1000xPod
Join the 1000x Telegram: https://t.me/+fz-2f0cwC6o0MWNh
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(00:00) Introduction
(02:34) Is the Cycle Over?
(07:57) Crypto Disrupting TradFi Rails
(09:570 Ads (Blockdaemon, Katana)
(11:22) OGs Selling
(14:33) Easiest Trade in Crypto?
(16:34) Crypto PTSD & Profit-Taking Psychology
(22:40) Portfolio Management
(29:19) Ads (Blockdaemon, Katana)
(30:43) Most Attractive Crypto Bets
(33:47) Prediction Markets & Gambling
(38:17) Crypto Wash Trading
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Empire is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Santiago, Jason, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
RERUN: How to Figure Out Whether a Crypto Token Is Worth Its Trading Price - Ep. 756
Low float and high fully diluted valuation (FDV) coins have been a hot topic in crypto this year. Yet, understanding these coins' unrealized gains is critical for truly grasping their pricing.
In this episode, Jose Macedo of Delphi Digital and Ari Paul of BlockTower Capital dive deep into metrics that help assess a coin’s true value. They discuss why upcoming token unlocks may put downward pressure on the market, how token unlocks could be better structured for long-term success, and whether VCs are extracting more value than they contribute.
Show highlights:
Why upcoming token unlock events are creating anxiety in the crypto market
The role unrealized gains play in token price volatility
How certain projects manipulate circulating supply metrics to influence perceptions
Tips for everyday investors to uncover accurate token information
The impact of secondary market trading on anticipated token unlock events
Why short-term token strategies often prevail over those focused on sustained success
Jose’s insights into why simple, time-based unlock models may outperform complex systems
Ari’s thoughts on the SEC’s investigations into VCs and their parallels to pump-and-dump schemes
Why many crypto projects face a bearish outlook due to pending token unlocks
How the intersection of memecoins and VC involvement could shape the next market cycle
Visit our website for breaking news, analysis, op-eds, articles to learn about crypto, and much more: unchainedcrypto.com
Thank you to our sponsors!
Polkadot
Guests:
Jose Macedo, founder at Delphi Labs
Ari Paul, CIO of BlockTower Capital
Previous appearances on Unchained:
Ari Paul on Why Bitcoin Is a Good Value Buy
Ari Paul of BlockTower Capital on the Crypto Downturn and Why It Could Change Direction
Links
High FDV and unlocks:
Unchained:
How ‘Fully Diluted Valuation’ Can Be a Very Dangerous Metric for Crypto Markets to Rely On
Who’s to Blame for the Underperformance of Low Float, High FDV Tokens?
80% of Tokens on Binance Are Down Since Listing Date: SwissBorg Researcher
Cobie newsletter: New launches (part 1) - private capture, phantom pricing
Rocknblock: Token vesting explainer
CoinDesk: 'Liquid Vesting' Is Oxymoronic Blockchain Feature That Lets Early Investors Sell Without Waiting
Jose’s thread that inspired the episode
Ari’s post responding to Jose’s thread
Token.unlocks.app: Token vesting tracker
Solutions:
Hack VC: Potential Solutions to Crypto's Unlock Problem
Colony Lab: Early-Stage Program & Liquid Vesting
Imran Khan’s tweet on Blast https://x.com/lmrankhan/status/1806040646433522149
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
02:46 Token unlocks creating market concerns
11:06 Unrealized gains to market cap ratio impact
13:06 Token supply manipulation tactics
21:11 How investors can verify token projects
24:21 Secondary market trading and unlock impacts
35:36 Current token launch strategy persistence
41:46 Short-term vs long-term project decisions
47:21 Time-based vs metric-based token unlocks
53:51 SEC investigations into VC practices
59:56 Bearish outlook for upcoming token unlocks
1:06:36 Investor risks in current cycle
1:13:11 Future of VCs in crypto and memecoins
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How to Figure Out Whether a Crypto Token Is Worth Its Trading Price - Ep. 667
The problem of low float, high fully diluted valuation (FDV) coins is one that is frequently discussed in crypto. But there’s another wrinkle: investors need to understand the unrealized gains of these coins to really understand the price.
In this episode, Jose Macedo of Delphi Digital and Ari Paul of Blocktower Capital explain the various metrics that reveal what a coin is really worth, why a wave of token unlocks that will be hitting the crypto markets in the next few years are not bullish, and whether there is a better way to design token unlocks for teams and insiders.
Plus, they cover whether venture capitalists are extractive to crypto, whether these games with circulating supply and FDV have caused investors to turn to memecoins, and why they believe the ICO era was better for retail investors.
Show highlights:
00:00 Intro
01:58 Why upcoming token unlocks are creating market jitters
10:22 How the ratio of unrealized gains to market cap influences token price movements
12:22 How some token projects manipulate their reported circulating supply
20:24 Whether and how everyday investors can uncover the truth about token projects
23:37 What secondary market trading says about the potential impact of upcoming token unlocks
34:50 Why Jose believes that the current token launch strategy, despite its flaws, is still favored by insiders and unlikely to change soon
41:02 Why some projects favor decisions that are more likely to result in short-term gains over long-term success
46:36 Why Jose believes that simple time-based token unlocks often work better than complex metrics, and how projects can balance funding with realistic success metrics
53:04 Why Ari believes the SEC's investigations into VCs for acting as securities dealers might be justified, and how these practices resemble pump-and-dump schemes
59:11 With numerous token unlocks looming, why the outlook is bearish for many projects, and what challenges they face in mitigating potential sell-offs
1:05:52 Why many crypto investors might end up holding the bag in the current cycle, despite plans to sell early and avoid losses
1:12:27 What the future role of VCs is in crypto, and how the influx of token unlocks and the rise of memecoins could shape the bull cycle
Visit our website for breaking news, analysis, op-eds, articles to learn about crypto, and much more: unchainedcrypto.com
Thank you to our sponsors!
Polkadot
Guests:
Jose Macedo, founder at Delphi Labs
Ari Paul, CIO of Blocktower Capital
Previous appearances on Unchained:
Ari Paul on Why Bitcoin Is a Good Value Buy
Ari Paul of BlockTower Capital on the Crypto Downturn and Why It Could Change Direction
Links
High FDV and unlocks:
Unchained:
How ‘Fully Diluted Valuation’ Can Be a Very Dangerous Metric for Crypto Markets to Rely On
Who’s to Blame for the Underperformance of Low Float, High FDV Tokens?
80% of Tokens on Binance Are Down Since Listing Date: SwissBorg Researcher
Cobie newsletter: New launches (part 1) - private capture, phantom pricing
Rocknblock: Token vesting explainer
CoinDesk: 'Liquid Vesting' Is Oxymoronic Blockchain Feature That Lets Early Investors Sell Without Waiting
Jose’s thread that inspired the episode
Ari’s post responding to Jose’s thread
Token.unlocks.app: Token vesting tracker
Solutions:
Hack VC: Potential Solutions to Crypto's Unlock Problem
Colony Lab: Early-Stage Program & Liquid Vesting
Imran Khan’s tweet on Blast https://x.com/lmrankhan/status/1806040646433522149
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Building the Perfect Crypto Portfolio | Avi Felman & Roshun Patel
In this episode, Santi & Jason talk with Avi and Ro about the current state of the crypto market cycle in both private and liquid markets. They discuss Avi's "bearish" outlook driven by diminishing ETF inflows and stablecoin market caps, Ro's perspective on crywpto venture investing, and how this cycle compares to the last one. The conversation dives into the Solana IOUs auction, the upcoming Ethereum ETF catalyst, and the (un)productive nature of assets like Eigen Layer's restaking product and Bitcoin DeFi. Avi and Ro also outline their framework for crypto portfolio construction and the key indicators they watch. The episode concludes with their 12-month price predictions for BTC, ETH and SOL.
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Follow Avi: https://twitter.com/AviFelman
Follow Ro: https://twitter.com/roshunpatel
Follow Jason: https://twitter.com/JasonYanowitz
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Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/
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Arbitrum is a game-changer for daily Ethereum's users and developers, offering top applications and lower fees. As the leading scaling solution with 600+ apps, explore Arbitrum’s Portal to find your perfect fit. Interact with the home of DeFi, a flourishing NFT and creator ecosystem, and a rapidly growing Web3 gaming hub – Arbitrum has it all.
Get started at:
portal.arbitrum.io
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This episode is brought to you by Aura, the AI-powered digital security protection app that keeps your personal information, passwords, online activity, and tech safe from digital threats. It’s all-in-one protection from identity theft, financial fraud, malware, scams, and more.
For a limited time, Aura is offering our listeners a 14-day FREE trial plus up to 55% off an Aura subscription.
Visit aura.com/blockworks to sign up for your free trial.
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SKALE is a modular, AppChain network that offers zero gas fee transactions and instant finality. Tailored for ease of development and onboarding, SKALE's configurable EVM chains enable next-gen use cases in gaming, AI, DePin, and others. With over 20,000,000 users having saved over $6 Billion on gas fees, SKALE is the blockchain for mass adoption.
Bridge to SKALE at portal.skale.space and stay up to date with the gasless blockchain at @skalenetwork
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Marinade is the leading Solana staking service that spreads your stake across 100+ top validators, distributes MEV rewards, and provides automatic downside protection with new Protected Staking Rewards. Choose to liquid stake for mSOL for use in DeFi, or delegate your stake through Marinade Native, which gives you full custody of your SOL and no smart contract risk. Max performance for you, max performance for Solana.
https://blckwrks.co/Marinade
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(04:28) Avi's Bearish Take
(09:41) Ro's Private Market Perspective
(16:42) Ethereum's Bull Case
(27:42) Private & Liquid Ratio
(36:49) Arbitrum Ad
(37:26) Aura Ad
(38:25) Marinade Ad
(39:29) SKALE ad
(40:46) Solana's Trade
(45:44) Cycle Timing & Comparison
(54:23) Fundamentals of DeFi
(01:01:06) What Everyone is Missing?
(01:11:14) Price Predictions
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Empire is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Santiago, Jason, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
A Paradigm Shift: Chaos Fuels BTC’s Fire | Avi Felman, Jonah Van Bourg
In this episode of Empire, Avi Felman and Jonah Van Bourg explain how macro and banking turmoil has ignited a market paradigm shift. Funds will be hunting for the assets that will perform well in this new paradigm, and it won't be bonds... Tune in as we discuss BTC's prime moment, why supply is the story of 2023, BTC vs ETH, the USDC depeg and more. If you listen to one Empire episode this year, this is it!
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:06) The market is consistently wrong
(07:24) A new paradigm and BTC's opportunity
(27:14) Bitcoin vs ETH vs Alts
(35:34) Quicknode
(37:19) The implications of USDC's depeg
(38:05) What other trades are you watching?
(45:27) Expected sources of leverage in the next cycle
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Follow Jonah: https://twitter.com/jvb_xyz
Follow Avi: https://twitter.com/AviFelman
Follow Jason: https://twitter.com/JasonYanowitz
Follow Santi: https://twitter.com/santiagoroel
Follow Empire: https://twitter.com/theempirepod
Subscribe on YouTube: https://tinyurl.com/4fdhhb2j
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Subscribe on Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/wbaypprw
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/
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This episode is brought to you by Quicknode. QuickNode is an end-to-end blockchain developer platform that makes building Web3 apps easy. Go to QuickNode.com and use code Empire for a free month on their feature-packed Build Plan!
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Resources
GoldenTree
https://www.goldentree.com/
Cumberland
https://cumberland.io/
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Empire is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Santiago, Jason, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
Smart Money Finds Opportunity Post Catastrophe | Avi Felman, Jonah Van Bourg
In this episode of Empire, Jason is joined by Avi Felman and Jonah Van Bourg to discuss their new podcast 1000x and the state of crypto markets. Avi and Jonah explain their trading mindset, how to evaluate the buyers/sellers in the market, crypto's investment cycle, how catastrophe creates opportunity and more!
A new 1000x episode will drop on Empire's RSS feed and the 1000x YouTube channel every two weeks. Links below!
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:07) 1000x Podcast Launch
(04:33) Market Outlook
(07:48) Who’s Buying, Who’s Selling?
(18:10) Crypto’s Investment Cycle
(21:10) How Are People Positioned Right Now?
(23:23) Leverage In The System
(25:05) Trading Around Governance Events
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Follow Jonah: https://twitter.com/jvb_xyz
Follow Avi: https://twitter.com/AviFelman
Follow Jason: https://twitter.com/JasonYanowitz
Follow Empire: https://twitter.com/theempirepod
Follow 1000x: https://twitter.com/1000xPod
Subscribe on YouTube: https://tinyurl.com/4fdhhb2j
Subscribe on Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mv4frfv7
Subscribe on Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/wbaypprw
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/
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Circle’s USDC has quickly become one of the most trusted and widely used stablecoins because of its composability, stability and reserve transparency. As a seamless, trusted digital currency, USDC is a zero-to-one opportunity for the global financial system. Check out their Transparency Hub at http://empirepodcast.link/circle that outlines everything from links to USDC weekly reserve reports, monthly attestations, and blog posts written by their executive team highlighting how and why USDC was built the way it is.
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Resources
1000x YouTube channel
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCEAwYFRFUuekaEmKz4oiB_A
The Prize
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/169354.The_Prize
Sushi's protocol fee proposal
https://bit.ly/3FWvOkA
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Empire is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Santiago, Jason, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
BlockTower’s venture lead unpacks new $150 million fund
BlockTower yesterday unveiled a new $150 million fund, which has been operating in stealth since December of last year.
BlockTower also announced a new venture arm, which complements the firm’s long-biased flagship fund, market-neutral fund and credit strategies.
In this episode of The Scoop, Thomas Klocanas, BlockTower general partner and the new head of ventures, explains how BlockTower’s new venture fund synergizes with the firm’s existing strategies, and how this is advantageous for early-stage crypto projects.
According to Klocanas, BlockTower’s four strategies collectively have more utility than a single specialized fund could have on its own:
"If you're a DeFi protocol at seed stage, one of the first things you're calling your investors to solve for following your seed round is how do you bootstrap liquidity?… The benefit within BlockTower, our market-neutral fund, that's a big part of their mandate, that's a big part of how they generate yields — so there are obvious synergies where we can pipe that in.”
Given this interoperability between the different facets of the business, Klocanas believes his new fund is more aptly referred to as a "strategic" fund:
“We're not just a venture fund, we’re a ‘strategic.’ When folks say ‘strategic,’ they typically think of Coinbase’s investment arm or Gemini’s investment arm, but really I think that category is a little wider, and BlockTower is strategic in that we have multiple funds and strategies that can not just be an investor, but a user of your platform.”
For Klocanas, of all the crypto industry's subsectors, “the highest conviction theme right now is definitely credit.”
Given the amount of re-hypothecation in crypto that was exposed earlier this year, Klocanas believes there are clear advantages to decentralized lending:
“There is a benefit to lending through a smart contract in that in the pecking order, if you're lending with something that has claims on collateral with code, you're going to get paid.
Episode 99 of Season 4 of The Scoop was recorded remotely with The Block's Frank Chaparro and BlockTower General Partner & Head of Venture, Thomas Klocanas.
Listen below, and subscribe to The Scoop on Apple, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher or wherever you listen to podcasts. Email feedback and revision requests to podcast@theblockcrypto.com.
This episode is brought to you by our sponsors Tron
About Tron
TRON is dedicated to accelerating the decentralization of the internet via blockchain technology and decentralized applications (dApps). Founded in September 2017 by H.E. Justin Sun, the TRON network has continued to deliver impressive achievements since MainNet launch in May 2018. July 2018 also marked the ecosystem integration of BitTorrent, a pioneer in decentralized web3 services boasting over 100 million monthly active users. The TRON network completed full decentralization in December 2021 and is now a community-governed DAO. | TRONDAO | Twitter | Discord |
Inside the mind of crypto’s top traders | Dan Matuszewski (CMS) & Avi Felman
Attend DAS, crypto and macro’s favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/
Use code EMPIRE250 to get $250 off tickets (Only available this week!)
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In this episode of Empire, Jason and Mike are joined by Dan Matuszewski (CMS Holdings) & Avi Felman (GoldenTree). If you don't know these two names, don't forget them - two of the best traders and sources of alpha in crypto.
This episode is one of my favorites yet; check out the highlights below:
- Is macro crypto's master
- This will lead to crypto's divergence with Macro
- How will ETH perform with the merge
- What are the new, hidden narratives
- The tradeoff between CeFi and DeFi
- Is DeFi ready to take off
- Retail open-term lending is dead
- Regulators have two options
- Why VCs are in trouble
- -
Follow Dan: https://twitter.com/cmsholdings
Follow Avi: https://twitter.com/AviFelman
Follow Jason: https://twitter.com/JasonYanowitz
Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_
Follow Empire: https://twitter.com/theempirepod
Subscribe on YouTube: https://tinyurl.com/4fdhhb2j
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Subscribe on Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/wbaypprw
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(00:00) Introduction
(01:08) The intersection of macro & crypto
(12:47) How Will ETH's Price React to the Merge?
(17:50) New Narratives & Market Leverage
(25:28) A Catalyst for DeFi
(29:10) What's About to Happen in CeFi?
(31:37) Your DeFi Project Isn't Sexy
(35:45) Can DeFi Tokens Accure Value?
(41:23) Why You Should Avoid Low Float Tokens
(44:27) VCs Are In Trouble
(49:20) Avi and Dan Run Wild
(51:06) Wrapping Things Up
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Empire is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Santiago, Jason, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
Avi Felman explains his decision-making process for trading headlines in crypto
Avi Felman's eyes are glued to his trading screen, waiting for market-moving headlines that could be prime opportunities to put on a multi-million crypto trade.
These past few weeks have been especially active for the portfolio manager, who joined crypto investment firm BlockTower in November 2019. Felman, who co-leads the firm's flagship fund, navigated price gyrations stemming from macro and industry news, ranging from headlines that government officials recovered funds from Bitfinex's 2016 hack to more recent news that Russia could invade neighbor Ukraine.
On this episode of The Scoop, Felman explained the decision-making process that goes into making a trade on headlines, using reports that Russia was on the verge of invading Ukraine as one case study example.
"I know that the context is that the Biden administration has been warning about Russia for quite some time," he said. "I know that bitcoin doesn't like uncertainty. I read the headline as being extremely uncertain."
Whether a certain news event adds uncertainty is just one factor Felman considers. Timing is equally important.
"Okay, I want to make a trade and this all happens in the span of, you have to think, about 15 to 30 seconds," he explained. "You need to make those connections. Then I need to start de-risking a little bit."
In some instances, Felman takes a cue from the S&P 500, which has been moving very closely with bitcoin despite the crypto's reputation as a hedge asset.
"The vast majority of time the bitcoin decouples from the S&P, it's because of a delayed reaction," he said. "It's because bitcoin has some idiosyncratic crypto native bidder that isn't paying attention to broader risk."
...For more visit Theblockcrypto.com/podcasts
Episode 9 of Season 4 of The Scoop was recorded remotely with The Block’s Frank Chaparro and Avi Felman, Co-Portfolio Manager at Blocktower Capital.
Listen below, and subscribe to The Scoop on Apple, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher or wherever you listen to podcasts. Email feedback and revision requests to podcast@theblockcrypto.com.
This episode is brought to you by our sponsors Fireblocks, Coinbase Prime & Chainalysis
Fireblocks is an enterprise-grade platform delivering a secure infrastructure for moving, storing, and issuing digital assets. Fireblocks enables exchanges, lending desks, custodians, banks, trading desks, and hedge funds to securely scale digital asset operations through the Fireblocks Network and MPC-based Wallet Infrastructure. Fireblocks serves over 725 financial institutions, has secured the transfer of over $1.5 trillion in digital assets, and has a unique insurance policy that covers assets in storage & transit. For more information, please visit www.fireblocks.com.
About Coinbase Prime
Coinbase Prime is an integrated solution that provides institutional investors with an advanced trading platform, secure custody, and prime services to manage all their crypto assets in one place. Coinbase Prime fully integrates crypto trading and custody on a single platform, and gives clients the best all-in pricing in their network using their proprietary Smart Order Router and algorithmic execution. For more information, visit www.coinbase.com/prime.
About Chainalysis
Chainalysis is the blockchain data platform. We provide data, software, services, and research to government agencies, exchanges, financial institutions, and insurance and cybersecurity companies in over 60 countries. Our data powers investigation, compliance, and market intelligence software that has been used to solve some of the world’s most high-profile criminal cases and grow consumer access to cryptocurrency safely. Backed by Accel, Addition, Benchmark, Coatue, Paradigm, Ribbit, and other leading firms in venture capital, Chainalysis builds trust in blockchains to promote more financial freedom with less risk. For more information, visit www.chainalysis.com.
Ari Paul on Why Bitcoin Is a Good Value Buy Today - Ep.95
Ari Paul, CIO of BlockTower Capital, explains why he likes how short-term trades concentrate risk in investment, why, "no matter what," he thinks Bitcoin is a good-value buy today, and how big university endowments investing in crypto now could eventually lead institutions to go from having a fear-of-loss attitude about crypto to having FOMO. He also dives into why he's not as excited about generalized mining as some of BlockTower's crypto fund peers and who he thinks is really well-poised in that space. We also discuss why Bitcoin futures didn't have a positive impact on the price and what effect Bakkt and Fidelity launching their crypto products could have. Plus, he responds to people who accused him of insider trading when a private conversation in which he mentioned Stellar was acquiring enterprise blockchain startup Chain was released.
Thank you to our sponsors!
CipherTrace: https://ciphertrace.com/unchained
Altlending: https://altlending.com
Episode links:
Ari Paul: https://twitter.com/AriDavidPaul
BlockTower Capital: https://www.blocktower.com
Harvard, Stanford, MIT endowments invest in crypto: https://www.theinformation.com/articles/harvard-stanford-mit-endowments-invest-in-crypto-funds
Yale endowment invests in a16z and Paradigm: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/05/yale-investment-chief-david-swensen-jumps-into-crypto-with-bets-on-two-silicon-valley-funds.html
Bitcoin Cash hard fork recap: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/week-2-how-bitcoin-cash-hash-war-came-and-went-and-not-much-happened/
Unconfirmed episode on Bitcoin Cash hard fork with Aaron Van Wirdum: http://unconfirmed.libsyn.com/the-bitcoin-cash-hard-fork-bitcoin-abc-vs-bitcoin-sv-ep046
Unchained episode with Riccardo Spagni of Monero: http://unchainedpodcast.co/coinfunds-jake-brukhman-and-multicoins-tushar-jain-on-generalized-mining-ep92
Unchained episode with Jake Brukhman and Tushar Jain of Multicoin Capital: http://unchainedpodcast.co/coinfunds-jake-brukhman-and-multicoins-tushar-jain-on-generalized-mining-ep92
Unconfirmed episode with Fidelity's Tom Jessop: http://unconfirmed.libsyn.com/fidelity-digital-asset-services-tom-jessop-on-why-its-serving-institutional-clients-first-ep043
Ari's private conversation in which he mentioned Stellar was acquiring Chain: https://hackernoon.com/ten-questions-for-ari-david-paul-of-blocktower-capital-dcd8d81ef27e
IMF managing director Christine Lagarde's talk on the case for central bank digital currencies:
https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2018/11/13/sp111418-winds-of-change-the-case-for-new-digital-currency
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Hash Power – Ep. 2 - Investing in Cryptocurrencies
In episode 1 of Hash Power, we explored blockchains as a technology—how they work, why tokens (also known as cryptocurrencies) are an integral part of any blockchain, and how these new networks might change the world. In episode two, we spend time with the leading investors in the field. Like any frenzied asset class, there are countless cryptocurrency hedge funds popping up everywhere. But founders from three of the original firms—Polychain, Metastable, and Blocktower Capital—are our primary guides this week.
As I speak, the total market cap of cryptocurrencies is $136B. There are hundreds of tokens currently available, but bitcoin and Ethereum represent 75% of the total market cap. $136B sounds like a big number, but its tiny relative to any other asset class—and I use that term with hesitation. To put it in perspective, that’s exactly the same size as the market cap of IBM. But IBM had more than $10B of earnings in 2016. Tokens have none. As you will hear, valuing tokens is a very hard exercise.
In such a nascent world, we are seeing investing strategies take hold. Olaf Carlson-Wee, Josh Seims, and Ari Paul walk us through different takes on cryptocurrency investing, be it early stage, long term buy and hold, or more hedge fund style strategies.
Hash Power is presented by Fidelity Investments
For comprehensive show notes on this episode go to http://investorfieldguide.com/hashpower
For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast.
To get involved with Project Frontier, head to InvestorFieldGuide.com/frontier.
Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub.
Follow Patrick on Twitter at @patrick_oshag
Links Referenced
Fat Protocols (Joel Monegro)
Show Notes
0:05 – Recap of part 1 and introduction to part 2 of Hash Power
2:58 – Ari Paul, CIO of Blocktower explains how he got involved in cryptocurrencies
5:23 – Why do we need bitcoin
7:23 – Polychain Capital founder Olaf Carlson-Wee on why the value of tokens accrue
9:23 – How main stream money is getting into this space
12:26- Useful comparisons when talking about ICOs when compared to IPOs
15:01 - Naval Ravikant, CEO of Angellist, is asked to explain the protocols of cryptocurrencies to platform businesses like Uber or Airbnb
17:43 – Naval’s interest in investing in cryptocurrencies
23:07 - Olaf Carlson Wee on the lifecycle of a token
24:02 – SAFT note, Simple Agreement for Future Tokens
25:31 – What is the earliest stage that edge is most present for investors in cryptocurrency protocols
28:12 – How do you mitigate the volatility that is present in blockchain
31:18 - Jeremiah Lowin, a risk and statistics expert, who runs risk management for a large private family office, talks about why he no longer owns cryptocurrencies
34:19 - Jordan Cooper, a venture capital investor, is optimistic about blockchains in general, but thinks there may be some overvaluations in current currencies
37:02 – How Jordan would value a single cryptocurrency
42:10 – Fat Protocols (Joel Monegro)
43:52 - Josh Seims, of Metastable, the value investor in blockchain?
51:15 - Ari Paul on the equivalent of listed stocks in the crypto currency world
52:33 – Understanding the concept of a coin in blockchain and how people are getting access to them
55:07 – The fairground analogy to understand cryptocurrencies
57:57 – What lessons from traditional markets can you apply to investing in cryptocurrencies
1:06:51 – Ari is asked to discuss some of the alternative cryptocurrencies outside of Bitcoin and Ethereum. He starts with Ripple
1:10:27 – What would help firms or traders create edge in investing in cryptocurrencies
Learn More
For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast.
Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub
Follow Patrick on twitter at @patrick_oshag
Hash Power – Ep. 1 - Understanding Blockchains
Welcome to the first episode of Hash Power, an audio documentary that explores the world of blockchain and cryptocurrencies with leaders in the field like Naval Ravikant, Olaf Carlson-Wee, Fred Ehrsam, & Ari Paul. Hash Power is meant to be an introduction, but really, it is an invitation to explore this emerging world on your own.
In the coming weeks, we will cover the technology, the power of decentralization, bitcoin, Ethereum, ICOs, cryptography and hashing. We will spend time with the leading active hedge fund managers in the field, and with outside investors who are both optimistic and skeptical. Episode one covers the big picture, and answers the question: what is blockchain and why might it significantly affect our world?
If you enjoy what follows, you’ll still be very early in understanding this field. Most don’t. So help me spread it like wildfire, because the more people that understand blockchain, the better its impact might become. Please enjoy episode one, and stay tuned next week for episode 2, which explores investing in cryptocurrencies.
Hash Power is presented by Fidelity Investments
For comprehensive show notes on this episode go to http://investorfieldguide.com/hashpower
For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast.
To get involved with Project Frontier, head to InvestorFieldGuide.com/frontier.
Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub.
Follow Patrick on Twitter at @patrick_oshag
Books Referenced
The Sovereign Individual: Mastering the Transition to the Information Age
Nostalgia for the Absolute
Links Referenced
Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System
Reddit User jav_rddt
SHA-256 Calculator
The BitCoin Model for Crowdfunding
Fat Protocols
#cryptotwitter
Show Notes
CHAPTER 1 – Understanding the Concept of Blockchain (3:25)
4:30 – Jeremiah Lowin explains how blockchain is like a database
5:14 – Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System
5:46 – Owning a digital asset
7:14 – Naval Ravikant, CEO of Angelist on how blockchains can help to create personal networks and organize humans
13:33 – New coins popping up around data storage and utility needs like solar panels
14:57 – Permission vs permissionless networks
18:13 – Keeping track of scarcity and the introduction of tokens
18:51 – The Sovereign Individual: Mastering the Transition to the Information Age
21:55 – The role of blockchains in the informational age and the rise of more individual sovereignty
23:29 - Fred Ehrsam, co-founder of Coinbase, on the increasing shift to digital worlds led by incentive structures
CHAPTER 2 – Blockchain Technology (27:48)
29:09 - Reddit User jav_rddt
30:43 - SHA-256 Calculator
31:53 - Charlie Noyes, Pantera Capital, explains how SHA-256 was developed and what make its so special
35:48 – How miners create new blocks and the incentives to do so
46:54 – Ethereum, the “spiritual successor” to bitcoin
48:36 – How the Ether network is an ecosystem in which other tokens can sit
50:51 - Naval Ravikant on alternative coins or tokens
50:50 - The BitCoin Model for Crowdfunding
52:35 – Fat Protocols
53:22 – Blockchain as an experiment in distributed government
54:47 – How cryptocurrency is more than just technology, it’s a movement
54:50 – Nostalgia for the Absolute
57:27 - #cryptotwitter
1:00:58 - Peter Jubber, of Fidelity, on how huge institutions, like theirs, are getting into the cryptocurrency game
1:05:21- Olaf Carlson-Wee, first employee at Coinbase and the founder of Polychain, on the early excitement for cryptocurrency
1:06:56– Closing thoughts from Patrick
Looking to work in this space - hashpowerdeveloper@gmail.com
Learn More
For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast.
Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub
Follow Patrick on twitter at @patrick_oshag
