Galois Capital

Kevin Zhou, cofounder of Galois Capital, and Jesse Powell, cofounder of Kraken, talk about why FTX collapsed, the warning signs, and whether it’s a catalyst for self-custodial adoption.  Show highlights: the root causes of the FTX collapse, according to Jesse and Kevin whether there were warning signs of all the risks that were to come the importance of learning from mistakes, even for new people in the space Kevin's response to the stuck funds in FTX the debate about utilitarianism and SBF's effective altruism whether the philosophy behind founders matters Kevin's and Jesse's theories of how FTX and Alameda lost billions of dollars how Alameda and FTX's books were commingled  whether people will start using self-custodial wallets whether the fall of FTX vindicates BTC maximalism whether regulation has been beneficial or harmful for American customers the role of venture capital firms and their "mixed incentives" Take Unchained's 2022 survey!   Unchained is doing its annual survey. Tell us how you think we’re doing and how we could improve, whether it be on the podcast, in the newsletter, or in our premium offering. Looking forward to hearing your thoughts!  Thank you to our sponsors! Crypto.com Chainalysis Minima Kevin: Twitter Previous Unchained episodes: How Traders Are Thinking About the Merge — and a Potential ETHPoW Chain Why Kevin Zhou Believes Ethereum Will Have 3 Forks After the Merge. The Chopping Block: Kevin Zhou on Why He Knew Terra Would Crash Jesse: Twitter Previous Unchained episodes: Jesse Powell, CEO of Kraken, on Drawing a Line With Regulators Episode Links Previous coverage on Unchained of FTX: Did the Bahamian Government Direct SBF and Gary Wang to Hack FTX? – Ep. 422 The Chopping Block: Why Lenders Didn’t Liquidate Alameda When It Was Underwater  Erik Voorhees and Cobie on Why FTX Loaned Out Customers’ Assets The Chopping Block: FTX: The Biggest Collapse in the History of Crypto? Sam Bankman-Fried on How to Prevent the Next Terra and 3AC FTX Collapse: First declaration document Unchained: FTX Bankruptcy Overseer Says Company’s Collapse Is Worst He’s Ever Seen Unchained: Bahamas Regulator Directed SBF to Transfer FTX Assets to Government Wallet SBF tweet: FTX files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection Vox interview with SBF: Sam Bankman-Fried tries to explain himself NYT: How Sam Bankman-Fried’s Crypto Empire Collapsed Bloomberg: Crypto Hedge Fund Galois Confirms $40 Million Exposure to FTX Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Jesse Powell

CEO and Founder

Kraken

Kevin Zhou

Co-Founder

Galois Capital

Kevin Zhou, co-founder of Galois Capital, and Evgeny Gaevoy, founder and CEO of Wintermute, discuss how to trade the Ethereum Proof of Work fork, what the market is telling about the Merge, and whether the Merge affects Bitcoin.    Show highlights: what will happen at the time of the Merge according to Kevin and whether there’s uncertainty when the ETH Proof of Work chain will emerge and how that affects trading opportunities the mistakes of the ETHPoW team, like repealing EIP-1559 what percentage of ETH market cap ETHPoW will accrue what the first few blocks of ETHPoW will be like what the strategies are to earn the ETHPoW airdrop and what the on-chain activity looks like whether there is an “up-only” monoculture in Ethereum what stETH is, how it should be priced and what the futures market indicates where the value of a chain comes from and the likelihood of ETHPoW failing catastrophically how to protect from replay attacks the price action of ETH after the Merge how ETH becoming deflationary affects Bitcoin’s narrative as digital gold how the ESG-friendly image of Proof of Stake could affect the narratives of ETH and BTC   Thank you to our sponsors! Crypto.com Ava Labs a16z Kevin: Twitter Evgeny: Twitter   Episode Links   Previous Coverage of Unchained on the Merge: Preston Van Loon on Ethereum's Merge and His Lawsuit Against Treasury Arthur Hayes, Former Ethereum Skeptic, on Why the Merge Makes Him Bullish on ETH  With the Merge, Will Ethereum Take Over Bitcoin’s Title as Digital Gold? Why Kevin Zhou Believes Ethereum Will Have 3 Forks After the Merge Post-Merge, If Lido Becomes Dominant, What Does That Mean for Ethereum? ETH Proof of Work: ChainID missing; and the request from Coinbase Kevin’s analogy CoinDesk article ETHPow Token  Summary of Kevin’s thoughts ETHPoW team’s promise to abolish EIP-1559 ETHPoW first blocks Tether supports PoS Circle (USDC) supports PoS   ETH Trade Ether’s backwardation Eth-Flexive by Arthur Hayes Whether Ethereum’s Merge is priced in Gauntlet’s view on the Merge BTC correlation with stocks   ETH Post-Merge Dynamics: Onchain Wizard post Cumberland on the Ethereum dynamics after the merge  Miles Suter on the implications of the Merge Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Kevin Zhou

Co-Founder

Galois Capital

Evgeny Gaevoy

Founder

Wintermute

Kevin Zhou, co-founder of Galois Capital, comes to talk about the possibility of a Proof of Work chain on Ethereum after the Merge, the LUNA death spiral, how he plans to play the Merge, and much more...    Show highlights: how Kevin got started in crypto  what Galois Capital is and what its investment thesis is why Kevin was more vocal than most about the possibility of the LUNA death spiral whether Kevin made money out of the Terra collapse and what was his strategy what the difficulty bomb in Ethereum is the potential scenarios that could arise after the Merge whether the public is not considering the risks of the Merge how the fact that everybody was telling the same narrative about ETH made Kevin suspicious how Chandler’s statement about forking Ethereum made it a lot more likely that it would happen the groups behind the encouragement of a proof-of-work Ethereum chain whether there is a value proposition for a Proof of Work chain how Kevin used The Cryptopians to remember how the DAO fork went what replay protection is and why it is important when forking a chain why anyone would want to keep the difficulty bomb in a potential proof of work chain Kevin’s predictions about the market cap of the potential Ethereum forks how a proof of work chain of Ethereum would function without the biggest stablecoins like USDT and USDC whether Tether is going to support Ethereum 2 why Kevin writes using metaphors related to history and gaming and how those analogies relate to Ethereum how Kevin wanted to “stick it” to the Ethereum Foundation by offering his services whether Vitalik trolled Kevin on Twitter whether Kevin will apply the same strategy he used with ETC after the DAO fork   Thank you to our sponsors!   1inch:  https://1inch.io/   Crypto.com: https://crypto.onelink.me/J9Lg/unconfirmedcardearnfeb2021       Kevin Twitter: https://twitter.com/Galois_Capital     ETH2 What is the Merge?: https://ethereum.org/en/upgrades/merge/   Proof of Work Chain Kevin’s analogy: https://twitter.com/Galois_Capital/status/1554053321165512705?s=20 Haseeb’s answer to Kevin’s arguments: https://twitter.com/hosseeb/status/1554163977806000128?s=20 Chandler Guo’s proposal: https://decrypt.co/106409/prominent-chinese-ethereum-miner-wants-to-resist-merge-create-fork Kevin’s consulting offer: https://twitter.com/Galois_Capital/status/1553090706708856832?s=20 BitMEX researchers on the possibility of an Ethereum PoW chain: https://blog.bitmex.com/ethpow-vs-eth2/ CoinDesk article: https://www.coindesk.com/layer2/2022/08/03/who-will-mine-ethereum-after-its-gone/ Poloniex’s announcement: https://twitter.com/poloniex/status/1555085757450272768?s=21&t=jkjNGieNXdY5SgT2e9xhoQ Justin Sun’s support of ETHW: https://twitter.com/justinsuntron/status/1555112296006922240?s=21&t=jkjNGieNXdY5SgT2e9xhoQ   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Kevin Zhou

Co-Founder

Galois Capital

Welcome to The Chopping Block! Crypto insiders Haseeb Qureshi, Tom Schmidt, and Tarun Chitra chop it up about the latest news in the digital asset industry. On this episode, Kevin Zhou, the CEO of Galois Capital and long-time critic of UST, also joined the conversation. Show topics: the UST depeg and Terra collapse  Kevin on what it was like being one of the earliest naysayers of LUNA why Kevin believes that UST initially depegged and became a “fear cascade” how Galois Capital traded the UST depeg, from shorting LUNA to keeping their UST in Anchor until the last moment why Kevin was disappointed in the lack of transparency in how Luna Foundation Guard attempted to defend the UST peg the implications of UST’s collapse across the crypto and traditional financial markets  whether Terra’s decline will lead to more regulation in the crypto industry why Anchor was the “cancer” of the Terra system  why VCs are reticent to say something bad about protocols they don’t believe in why grifting is so much more prevalent in crypto  what Jump Trading had to do with the Terra collapse the difference between the way trading and VC firms interact with crypto the issues with the Terra 2 proposal without UST which chains are receiving the people leaving the Terra ecosystem  why Haseeb compared the collapse of UST to the collapse of the Soviet Union who Kevin believes should be reimbursed in the aftermath of the UST collapse how political considerations might affect how Terra continues to develop going forward why Terra NFTs were skyrocketing during the Terra meltdown whether crypto is in a bear or bull market Hosts   Haseeb Qureshi, managing partner at Dragonfly Capital https://twitter.com/hosseeb Tom Schmidt, general partner at Dragonfly Capital https://twitter.com/tomhschmidt Tarun Chitra, managing partner at Robot Ventures https://twitter.com/tarunchitra  Robert Leshner, founder of Compound  https://twitter.com/rleshner    Guest Kevin Zhou, CEO of Galois Capital https://www.linkedin.com/in/kevin-zhou-82938324/    Previous Unchained Coverage   Nic Carter, Erik Voorhees, and Eric Wall on the collapse of UST https://unchainedpodcast.com/why-terra-collapsed-and-whether-an-algo-stablecoin-can-ever-succeed/  Do Kwon on backing UST with BTC ​​https://unchainedpodcast.com/do-kwon-is-backing-ust-with-bitcoin-and-heres-what-else-he-is-building/ Kevin Zhou on the risk of UST’s death spiral https://unchainedpodcast.com/heres-why-usdn-depegged-from-the-dollar-and-why-ust-might-too/  Jon Wu on how Terra got depegged: https://unchainedpodcast.com/did-someone-deliberately-attack-terra-luna-to-kick-off-a-death-spiral/ Do Kwon on The Chopping Block https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0xl8u7-KVwM    Haseeb’s summary of the Terra collapse: https://medium.com/dragonfly-research/the-reign-of-terra-the-rise-and-fall-of-ust-208dabbc8e6e   Jon Wu’s write-up on the UST Depeg Article: https://www.notboring.co/p/terra-to-the-moon-and-back  Thread: https://twitter.com/jonwu_/status/1523793482850050048?s=20&t=lvB1zdz98wu5TE5emh4fCw    Terra Background Info  Twitter: https://twitter.com/terra_money  UST Mechanics: https://angelprotocol.medium.com/how-does-ust-work-ec7b2f6e2c2c UST Bank Run: https://www.wsj.com/articles/crash-of-terrausd-shakes-crypto-there-was-a-run-on-the-bank-11652371839 Speculation of a deliberate attack: https://onchainwizard.substack.com/p/how-to-make-800m-in-crypto-soros?s=r Do Kwon’s Proposed Terra’s Revival: https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2022/05/13/do-kwon-proposes-restart-of-terra-blockchain-as-ust-luna-plummet/ Anchor: https://twitter.com/anchor_protocol  Terra 2.0: https://unchainedpodcast.com/do-kwon-has-a-new-plan-again/  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Kevin Zhou

Co-Founder

Galois Capital

Kevin Zhou is the founder of crypto quant fund, Galois Capital and former head of trading at Kraken. Last week, Terra, one of the most prominent ecosystems in crypto, effectively disintegrated in days. Its native token Luna had over $40 B in market cap at its peak, and nearly all of it was wiped out while UST, which was supposed to be a stablecoin worth $1 crashed. It was a historical moment in crypto as never before had a project that big, crashed so hard, so quickly. Kevin was one of the few who saw it coming and predicted the fall just a couple of months ago. In this interview, he talks about the red flags that helped him get to that conclusion. We also talk about whether there’s any hope for algorithmic stablecoins and explore potential alternatives for this type of asset. Kevin discusses the ripple effects we’re already seeing in crypto and more broadly, what to expect for the coming bear market. 🙏 Thanking our podcast sponsors: dYdX, the decentralized exchange, launched a Grants program with funding allocated to open-source builders, contributors and ecosystem integrations to help build its V4. Apply now! Oasis is the leading, scalable, and privacy-enabled, layer-1 blockchain, ideal for DeFi. Learn More and experience the benefits of the network. 1inch finds the best rates across multiple networks. Why use a single DEX when you can use them all? Find your best deal at 1inch. Tracer DAO’s Perpetual Pools - Liquidation-free, long-term leveraged tokens allowing you to long or short anything - commodities, cryptocurrencies, equities; even NFTs.

Kevin Zhou

Co-Founder

Galois Capital

The collapse of the Terra ecosystem, and the tokens Luna and UST, will go down as one of the most painful and devastating chapters in crypto history. Over $60 billion market value has evaporated, and numerous retail investors are nursing major losses. What's particularly bad is that this was a big project, championed by some of the most notable names in crypto. But some people obviously saw it coming, and understood it to be a disaster in the making. On this episode we speak with Kevin Zhou, the founder of the crypto hedge fund Galois Capital. He began warning about Terra publicly earlier this year, and was short Luna starting in early May. He explains the exact mechanics of the coin's implosion. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kevin Zhou

Co-Founder

Galois Capital

Kevin Zhou, co-founder of Galois Capital, discusses a crazy week in the world of algorithmic stablecoins that saw USDN de-peg from the dollar and Terra unveil plans to create a new liquidity pool on Curve to strengthen UST. Show highlights: how USDN and Waves works what made USD de-peg why Kevin thinks algorithmic stablecoins fail so often what Kevin thinks about backing UST with BTC how 4pool works in the context of Curve Finance, 3pool, UST, Frax Finance, and Redacted Cartel why Kevin believes Anchor is the reason UST could de-peg what might happen to Terra and the crypto market writ large if UST were to de-peg why lowering yields on Anchor could depress LUNA’s price by 8x how UST and LUNA redemptions work Thank you to our sponsors! Crypto.com: https://crypto.onelink.me/J9Lg/unconfirmedcardearnfeb2021     Coinchange: https://coinchange.io    OnJuno: https://onjuno.com/  Galaxis: https://galaxis.xyz/ Episode Links   Kevin Zhou LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kevin-zhou-82938324/  Galois Capital: https://twitter.com/Galois_Capital    UST Proposal https://agora.terra.money/t/ust-goes-interchain-the-4pool-and-redacted-cartel/5648 Why Terra would want to implement 4pool (in the context of the curve wars) https://twitter.com/CryptoHarry_/status/1510244225304117252  Do Kwon on trying to make DAI less relevant https://twitter.com/stablekwon/status/1511017532764803078  FXS price jump https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2022/04/04/frax-finances-fxs-jumps-as-terra-introduces-stablecoin-pool-4pool/  Galois Twitter threads https://twitter.com/Galois_Capital/status/1511455703642394628  https://twitter.com/Galois_Capital/status/1511198930951938049  UST vs LUNA market cap risk https://twitter.com/0xHamz/status/1506372692005593090  https://twitter.com/Galois_Capital/status/1511198930951938049  https://twitter.com/Galois_Capital/status/1507651829366145030  Why curve wars matter https://twitter.com/JackNiewold/status/1511484763630194699  Terraform Labs’ CEO Do Kwon’s appearance on Unchained https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NMRbP_b4JXM  Anchor https://medium.com/@_0xfr/anchor-protocol-how-the-dev-team-rigged-liquidations-a188fb87a99f  USDN Recap of Waves x Alameda Drama https://thedefiant.io/waves-ftx-ponzi-accusations/  OG thread pointing out Waves market manipulation https://twitter.com/0xHamz/status/1509581295621451779  https://twitter.com/0xHamz/status/1502381061925261312  Waves founder blaming Alameda https://twitter.com/sasha35625/status/1510589983920656385 Governance proposal to kill Alameda’s short ​​https://unchainedpodcast.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=0085a41334b3edf854fd51f9b&id=2fb7761d5b&e=3c1178619e   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Kevin Zhou

Co-Founder

Galois Capital