Why the VC Hype Cycle Always Gets It Wrong | VC Roundtable | E2307
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Today's show:
Forget the triple-triple-double-double-double; the new bar for startups hoping to raise venture capital has reached the stratosphere, though our venture panel is worried that startups are focusing too much on today's problems that may not become companies tomorrow. During a lively VC roundtable, Cowboy's Aileen Lee, Floodgate's Mike Maples, and Lerer Hippeau's Ben Lerer joined Alex to dig into exiting pre-AI startups, rising valuations, token spend, why they are keeping their funds small, and whether the government just tripped OpenAI and Anthropic!
Guest Links:
Aileen Lee https://x.com/aileenlee
Cowboy VC https://cowboy.vc
Mike Maples https://x.com/m2jr
Floodgate https://www.floodgate.com
Bene Lerer https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjlerer
Lere Hippeau https://www.lererhippeau.com
Timestamps:
0:00 Aileen Lee, Mike Maples, and Ben Lerer join the show
5:13 Venture liquidity returns: what SpaceX/Stripe distributions mean for LPs
9:13 Bending Spoons prices IPO at $29/share, roughly $18.4B valuation
10:31 Agree.com - Stop chasing invoices and automate your entire contract-to-cash stack. Go to https://agree.com and tell them Jason sent you to get 50% off for life!
12:09 "Companies get bought, not sold" — Ben on taking first offers seriously
17:41 Plaud: If your work depends on conversations — interviews, meetings, calls — you need a Plaud NotePin. You can check it out at https://Plaud.ai/twist and use code TWIST for 10% off!
19:34 Mutiny's burn-the-boats AI pivot with Jaleh Rezaei
20:19 Northwest Registered Agent - Get more when you start your business with Northwest. In 10 clicks and 10 minutes, you can form your company and walk away with a real business identity — Learn more at https://www.northwestregisteredagent.com/twist
22:15 Mike's KeepSafe story: the "rule of 70" and profit-first companies
25:12 The new growth bar: 5x, 4x replaces triple-triple-double-double
28:55 Fund size is your strategy: why Floodgate and Lerer Hippeau stay small
30:11 CLA - Innovation takes balance. CLA's CPAs, consultants, and wealth advisors can help you get from startup to where you want to end up. Get started now at https://www.claconnect.com/withyou
37:39 The $100M Series A: Starcloud, General Intuition, Scale Cognition, Scout AI
40:35 King-making rounds and why mega-seeds destroy optionality
54:11 Open-weight models: the GLM-5.2 moment and going model-agnostic
55:30 Why fine-tuning open models is a treadmill, with Cursor/Kimi as an example
1:03:28 Grading the Trump administration on Mythos and Fable
1:06:33 Rising anti-AI sentiment, the wealth gap, and lessons from social media
1:11:43 Raising kids in the post-intelligence era
1:12:35 Where to find the panel and what each firm is investing in
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20VC: How To Do a 10x Seed Fund in 2025 | Three Frameworks to Evaluate Startups an Founders | Lessons from Losing Billions Missing Airbnb and Pinterest & Investing Lessons from Charlie Munger with Mike Maples @ Floodgate
Mike Maples is one of the OG seed investors of the last two decades. As a co-founding Partner at Floodgate, Mike has been on the Forbes Midas List eight times in the last decade. Some of Mike's investments include Twitter, Twitch.tv, Clover Health, Okta, Outreach, Chegg, Demandforce, and Applied Intuition.
In Today's Episode with Mike Maples We Discuss:
04:02 Does Seed Even Make Sense as an Asset Class?
05:16 Fund Size and Strategy: How to Do a 10x Fund?
08:12 Follow-On Investments: Are they BS?
16:41 Finding Inefficiencies in the Market
26:31 Exit Strategies and Liquidity Events: When to Sell?
35:14 How Floodgate Lost Billions Missing Airbnb and Pinterest
35:43 3 Frameworks for Evaluating Startups
36:23 Case Studies: Zoom and Okta
43:34 How to Truly Analyse Product-Market Fit
45:22 Challenges with Overfunding Startups
50:02 2024 in Review: Company and Fund of the Year
54:25 Predictions for 2025
VP Debate, OpenAI Financial Churn, and Guest Mike Maples Jr.
Kara and Scott discuss California governor Gavin Newsom's veto of the AI bill that divided Big Tech, and Trump Media co-founders dumping $100 million worth of stock. Then, JD Vance and Tim Walz face off, Donald Trump's latest comments hit new lows, and is Kamala Harris leaning into crypto? Plus, a peek at OpenAI's financials reveals massive gains, but bigger losses. Will that be a problem for investors? Our Friend of Pivot is Mike Maples Jr., co-founder of the VC firm, Floodgate, and author of the new book, "Pattern Breakers: Why Some Start-Ups Change the Future." Mike talks about what makes for a successful start-up, and shares the story behind one of his biggest misses.
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EP 112: Mike Maples (Founding Partner, Floodgate): What Makes Startups Win & The Future of Venture Capital
Mike Maples is an 8x Midas List investor and founding partner at Floodgate Fund. In our conversation, we dive into his latest book, "Pattern Breakers: Why Some Startups Change The Future." Mike shares his frameworks on how top startups beat incumbents by redefining categories, and he reflects on his worst and best decisions. We also discuss what the future of venture capital may look like over the next decade - here are a few favorite takeaways on what makes outstanding startups from one of the industry's most influential names.
(00:00) Intro
(01:12) Meet Mike Maples: Venture Capital Icon
(04:20) The Genesis of Twitch and Startup Pivots
(07:51) Understanding Inflections in Startups
(14:38) The Role of Insights and Ideas in Startup Success
(22:13) The Importance of Movements and Founder-Future Fit
(26:10) Case Studies: Quibi, Tesla, and More
(43:41) The Trap of Mundane Startup Ideas
(45:36) The Inflection Stress Test for Startups
(47:06) The Twitter Success Story
(52:40) The Rise of Seed Funding
(56:55) Traits of Successful Founders
(59:39) The Importance of Storytelling in Startups
(01:05:47) Navigating the Challenges of Disruptive Startups
(01:08:31) Reflections on Early Investment Decisions
(01:13:57) Entering the Venture Capital World
(01:20:25) The Evolution of the Tech Industry
(01:22:47) Reflecting on the Dot-Com Era
(01:23:06) The Evolution of Cognition and AI
(01:24:03) Investment Strategies and Market Trends
(01:25:56) The AI and Dot-Com Bubble Comparison
(01:33:46) The Rise of Bitcoin and Crypto
(01:37:02) Navigating Venture Capital Cycles
(01:49:57) Advice for Aspiring Investors
(01:54:09) The Importance of Authenticity and Specialization
(02:03:20) Closing Thoughts and Reflections
Executive Producer: Rashad Assir
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Mixing and editing: Justin Hrabovsky
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About the Show
Logan Bartlett is a Software Investor at Redpoint Ventures - a Silicon Valley-based VC with $6B AUM and investments in Snowflake, DraftKings, Twilio, and Netflix. In each episode of The Logan Bartlett Show, we sit down with the people behind today’s most important startups and extract the tactics, lessons, and frameworks they’ve learned the hard way. Conversations span hiring to GTM, product, growth, fundraising and everything in between - collectively forming the ultimate playbook to make you a better CEO, investor or board member.
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Which start-ups change the future? Investor Mike Maples Jr. with Reid Hoffman
Silicon Valley investor Mike Maples Jr. is known for having a ‘Midas Touch.’ Think of a tech start-up that has changed your life in the last 20 years, and he was probably helping fuel its growth. Mike talks with host Reid Hoffman about the insights he’s gathered from decades of investing, which he shares in his new national bestseller book: Pattern Breakers. They also riff on how to build – and invest – in the AI revolution.
Synthetic voiceover of Reid Hoffman used in this episode was produced by Respeecher with full consent and permission.
Read a transcript of this episode: https://mastersofscale.com
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#754: Arnold Schwarzenegger and Ann Miura-Ko
This episode is a two-for-one, and that’s because the podcast recently hit its 10-year anniversary and passed one billion downloads. To celebrate, I’ve curated some of the best of the best—some of my favorites—from more than 700 episodes over the last decade. I could not be more excited. The episode features segments from episode #60 "Arnold Schwarzenegger on Psychological Warfare" and #331 "Ann Miura-Ko — The Path from Shyness to World-Class Debater and Investor."
Please enjoy!
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Timestamps:
[00:00] Start
[04:08] Notes about this supercombo format.
[05:11] Enter Arnold Schwarzenegger.
[05:45] Where did Arnold develop his cast iron confidence?
[09:15] Mastering the psychological warfare of bodybuilding.
[13:58] Transferring this skill set to Hollywood.
[17:13] On making millions before becoming a movie star.
[19:48] Playing good bricklayer/bad bricklayer with Franco Columbu.
[24:41] How Twins came together.
[29:14] Meditation as one of many answers.
[35:47] Enter Ann-Miura Ko.
[36:14] Ann's childhood shyness.
[38:14] The Japanese phrase Ann used as a hostile kid in Michigan.
[40:20] How Ann overcame introversion.
[43:13] Ann's first solo stage speech.
[44:22] Why Ann continued with speech and debate.
[45:17] Ann's love for competition.
[46:54] Ann's extreme efforts for pizza.
[48:57] The catalyst for Ann's debate improvement.
[53:01] Debate competition format.
[56:56] Ann's recommended resources for improving debate skills.
[59:56] Observations on modern debate in politics and family.
[1:02:01] The most important lesson from Ann's debating years.
[1:04:50] Differences between debate and negotiation.
[1:06:53] Ann's father's journey to America and favorite phrase.
[1:10:29] Ann's world-class effort in menial job tasks.
[1:13:15] How a Yale tour led to shadowing a CEO.
[1:18:36] Ann's first job experience.
[1:20:20] Ann's favorite office supplies.
[1:21:32] Ann's cherished personal artifacts.
[1:23:06] Ann's experience teaching Mayfield Fellows at Stanford.
[1:24:42] A reading list and plans for Ann's Stanford startup class.
[1:28:05] Spotting artificial inflation in startup valuations.
[1:31:29] Why Ann changed her career path from medicine.
[1:34:45] What Ann knew about herself that her parents and test scores didn't.
[1:38:55] Ann's entry into venture capital and startup investing.
[1:39:29] An encounter with Steve Jobs.
[1:40:40] A job offer based on shared interests.
[1:44:40] Ann's experience at CRV during 9/11.
[1:47:55] The most expensive words in investing.
[1:48:16] First principles thinking and common leadership decisions.
[1:50:52] Winning strategy vs. strategy not to lose.
[1:51:59] Manifestations of hedging as a defensive strategy.
[1:53:46] The importance of focusing on your own race.
[1:55:47] A need for aggressiveness to win.
[1:56:38] How Ann met Mike Maples, Jr.
[1:59:26] Ann's PhD plans and shift to working with Mike.
[2:02:12] Ann's reaction to Mike's unusual proposition.
[2:06:40] Ann's hectic first year at Floodgate.
[2:08:41] Ann's real first name.
[2:09:21] Ann's struggles and coping mechanisms.
[2:14:56] Ann's superpowers.
[2:18:44] Thunder lizards and Ann's pursuit of them.
[2:20:20] Ann's view on AI and machine learning's impact.
[2:23:11] Philosophy exercises and real-world applications.
[2:24:50] Aligning collective and self-interests in problem-solving.
[2:27:08] Books Ann has gifted or reread most.
[2:29:09] A recent, game-changing purchase under $100.
[2:30:28] Ann's billboard.
[2:31:19] The meaning of Ann's Japanese name characters.
[2:32:19] Ann's online presence and Floodgate's name origin.
[2:34:58] Parting thoughts.
*
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Floodgate's Mike Maples says startups that people 'don't like' may be the best ones to back
Mike Maples Jr. is a prolific angel investor and co-founder of early-stage venture firm Floodgate. Over the years, he’s taken a lot of bets. Some have paid off handsomely (Twitter, Twitch, Lyft and Bazaarvoice, for example). Others have not.
On today's episode of Equity, Mary Ann sat down with Mike to dig into a number of topics, including some of his most memorable investments, the one that got away, what he looks for when evaluating startups that pitch him - and what Godzilla has to do with it. We also talked a bit about his new book that he co-authored with Peter Ziebelman called “Pattern Breakers. Why some startups change the future.” Press play and join the conversation!
Equity is TechCrunch’s flagship podcast, produced by Theresa Loconsolo, and posts every Wednesday and Friday. Subscribe to us on Apple Podcasts, Overcast, Spotify and all the casts.
You also can follow Equity on X and Threads, at @EquityPod. For the full episode transcript, for those who prefer reading over listening, check out our full archive of episodes over at Simplecast.
Credits: Equity is produced by Theresa Loconsolo with editing by Kell. Bryce Durbin is our Illustrator. We'd also like to thank the audience development team and Henry Pickavet, who manages TechCrunch audio products.
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Pattern Breakers: How to find a breakthrough startup idea | Mike Maples, Jr. (Founding Partner at Floodgate, ex-Product at Silicon Graphics)
Mike Maples, Jr. is a legendary early-stage startup investor and a co-founder and partner at Floodgate. He’s made early bets on transformative companies like Twitter, Lyft, Twitch, Okta, Rappi, and Applied Intuition and is one of the pioneers of seed-stage investing as a category. He’s been on the Forbes Midas List eight times and enjoys sharing the lessons he’s learned from his years studying iconic companies. In his new book, Pattern Breakers: Why Some Start-Ups Change the Future, co-authored with Peter Ziebelman, he discusses what he’s found separates startups and founders that break through and change the world from those that don’t. After spending years reviewing the notes and decks from the thousands of startups he’s known over the past two decades, he’s uncovered three ways that breakthrough founders think and act differently. In our conversation, Mike talks about:
• The three elements of breakthrough startup ideas
• Why you need to both think and act differently
• How to avoid the “comparison trap” and “conformity trap”
• The importance of movements, storytelling, and healthy disagreeableness in startup success
• How to apply pattern-breaking principles within large companies
• Mike’s one piece of advice for founders
• Much more
Pre-order Mike’s book here and get a second signed copy for free. Limited copies are available, so order ASAP: patternbreakers.com/lenny.
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Find the transcript at: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/how-to-find-a-great-startup-idea-mike-maples-jr
—
Where to find Mike Maples, Jr.:
• X: https://x.com/m2jr
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/maples/
• Substack: https://greatness.substack.com/
• Website: https://www.floodgate.com/
—
Where to find Lenny:
• Newsletter: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com
• X: https://twitter.com/lennysan
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lennyrachitsky/
—
In this episode, we cover:
(00:00) Mike’s background
(03:10) The inspiration behind Pattern Breakers
(08:09) Uncovering startup insights
(11:37) A quick summary of Pattern Breakers
(13:52) Coming up with an idea
(15:30) Inflections
(17:09) Examples of inflections
(28:10) Insights
(36:58) The power of surprises
(47:36) Founder-future fit
(55:33) Advice for aspiring founders
(56:41) Living in the future: valid opinions
(55:34) Case study: Maddie Hall and Living Carbon
(58:40) Identifying lighthouse customers
(01:00:53) The importance of desperation in customer needs
(01:03:57) Creating movements and storytelling
(01:24:22) The role of disagreeableness in startups
(01:34:42) Applying these principles within a company
(01:40:43) Lightning round
—
Referenced:
• Pattern Breakers: Why Some Start-Ups Change the Future: https://www.amazon.com/Pattern-Breakers-Start-Ups-Change-Future/dp/1541704355
• Justin.tv: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Justin.tv
• Airbnb’s CEO says a $40 cereal box changed the course of the multibillion-dollar company: https://fortune.com/2023/04/19/airbnb-ceo-cereal-box-investors-changed-everything-billion-dollar-company/
• Brian Chesky’s new playbook: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/brian-cheskys-contrarian-approach
• The Unconventional Exit: How Justin Kan Sold His First Startup on eBay: https://medium.datadriveninvestor.com/the-unconventional-exit-how-justin-kan-sold-his-first-startup-on-ebay-4d705afe1354
• Kyle Vogt on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kylevogt/
• The State of Telehealth Before and After the COVID-19 Pandemic: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9035352/
• The Craigslist Killers: https://www.gq.com/story/craigslist-killers
• The social radar: Y Combinator’s secret weapon | Jessica Livingston (co-founder of Y Combinator, author, podcast host): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/the-social-radar-jessica-livingston
• Michael Seibel on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mwseibel/
• The Airbnb Story: How Three Ordinary Guys Disrupted an Industry, Made Billions ... and Created Plenty of Controversy: https://www.amazon.com/Airbnb-Story-Ordinary-Disrupted-Controversy/dp/0544952669
• Scott Cook: https://www.forbes.com/profile/scott-cook/
• Chegg: https://www.chegg.com/
• Aayush Phumbhra on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/aayush/
• Osman Rashid on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/osmanrashid/
• Okta: https://www.okta.com/
• The Man Who Makes the Future: Wired Icon Marc Andreessen: https://www.wired.com/2012/04/ff-andreessen/
• Peter Ludwig on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/peterwludwig/
• Qasar Younis on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/qasar/
• Paul Allen’s website: https://paulallen.com/
• Louis Pasteur quote: https://www.forbes.com/quotes/6145/
• What was Atrium and why did it fail? https://www.failory.com/cemetery/atrium
• Patrick Collison on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/patrickcollison/
• Drew Houston on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/drewhouston/
• William Gibson’s quote: https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/681-the-future-is-already-here-it-s-just-not-evenly
• Maddie Hall on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/maddie-hall-76293135/
• Living Carbon: https://www.livingcarbon.com
• Zenefits (now Trinet): https://connect.trinet.com/
• Sam Altman on X: https://x.com/sama
• Steve Wozniak on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/wozniaksteve/
• Horsley Bridge Partners: https://www.horsleybridge.com/
• David Swensen: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_F._Swensen
• Judith Elsea on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/judithelsea/
• 7 Powers: The Foundations of Business Strategy: https://www.amazon.com/7-Powers-Foundations-Business-Strategy/dp/0998116319
• Business strategy with Hamilton Helmer (author of 7 Powers): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/business-strategy-with-hamilton-helmer
• Lyft’s Focus on Community and the Story Behind the Pink Mustache: https://techcrunch.com/2012/09/17/lyfts-focus-on-community-and-the-story-behind-the-pink-mustache/
• Logan Green on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/logangreen/
• John Zimmer on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/johnzimmer11/
• Storytelling with Nancy Duarte: How to craft compelling presentations and tell a story that sticks: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/storytelling-with-nancy-duarte-how
• Steve Jobs Introducing the iPhone at MacWorld 2007: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x7qPAY9JqE4
• Jonathan Livingston Seagull: https://www.amazon.com/Jonathan-Livingston-Seagull-Richard-Bach/dp/0743278909
• The paths to power: How to grow your influence and advance your career | Jeffrey Pfeffer (author of 7 Rules of Power, professor at Stanford GSB): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/the-paths-to-power-jeffrey-pfeffer
• Robin Roberts on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/robin-roberts-393a934b/
• Skunkworks: https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/who-we-are/business-areas/aeronautics/skunkworks.html
• Vision, conviction, and hype: How to build 0 to 1 inside a company | Mihika Kapoor (Product at Figma): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/vision-conviction-hype-mihika-kapoor
• Hard-won lessons building 0 to 1 inside Atlassian | Tanguy Crusson (Head of Jira Product Discovery): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/building-0-to-1-inside-atlassian-tanguy-crusson
• Figma: https://www.figma.com/
• Atlassian: https://www.atlassian.com/
• Vinod Khosla: https://www.khoslaventures.com/team/vinod-khosla/
• Top Five Regrets of the Dying: A Life Transformed by the Dearly Departing: https://www.amazon.com/Top-Five-Regrets-Dying-Transformed-ebook/dp/B07KNRLY1L
• Chase, Chance, and Creativity: The Lucky Art of Novelty: https://www.amazon.com/Chase-Chance-Creativity-Lucky-Novelty/dp/0262511355
• Clay Christensen’s books: https://www.amazon.com/stores/Clayton-M.-Christensen/author/B000APPD3Y
• Resonate: Present Visual Stories That Transform: https://www.amazon.com/Resonate-Present-Stories-Transform-Audiences/dp/0470632011
• Ferrari on Prime: https://www.amazon.com/Ferrari-Adam-Driver/dp/B0CNDBN672
• Montblanc fountain pens: https://www.montblanc.com/en-us
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20VC Roundtable: Is the VC Model Broken? The Biggest Disconnect Ever Between TVPI & DPI, Why Market Size is Dangerous, Why "Go Fast" is Terrible Advice, The Dangers of Raising Large Rounds at High Prices & Why Next Year Will See the Biggest Hiring Spree i
Eric Paley is the Managing Partner at Founder Collective, one of the world's most successful seed funds with investments in the likes of Uber, The Trade Desk, Coupang and Airtable.
Mike Maples is one of the OGs of seed investing. As the Co-Founder of Floodgate, he has backed the likes of Twitch, Okta, Lyft, Twitter and more.
Jason Lemkin is the Founder @ SaaStr one of the best-performing early-stage venture funds with a portfolio including Algolia, Pipedrive, Salesloft, TalkDesk, and RevenueCat to name a few.
In Today's Episode on Is the Venture Model Broken? :
Is the classic seed model dead? Can seed funds play in a world of $25M valuations?
Why is having a firm grasp of the present the best thing an early-stage investor can have?
Why does Mike Maples believe no company with true product-market-fit has ever failed?
Why does Eric Paley believe "go faster" is the worst startup advice?
Why does Mike Maples believe there is a direct relationship between price and risk?
Why does Mike Maples believe that outliers by their very nature are lower priced?
Why does Eric Paley not focus on ownership? Why can it be dangerous?
What are the biggest risks for founders raising at valuations that are too high?
Why does Eric Paley believe we will have the biggest chasm between TVPI and DPI in the prior vintage of venture capital returns?
Why does Eric believe the majority of SPACs were BS and great companies can always go public?
Why does Jason believe that if multiples do not reflate, the venture model is broken?
Why does Jason believe we will see the biggest hiring spree in tech next year?
How has illiquidity allowed Eric Paley to make some of the best investment decisions?
What is Mike Maples biggest lesson from selling Twitter stock early at $1BN?
20VC: Three Core Lessons for Founders From the SVB Crisis From Financial Agility (Banking) to Constructing Scenario Plans and Mastering Crisis Communications | How The Western World Has Not Been Responsible with its Money & Why The Fed Is Backing Itself I
Mike Maples is one of the OGs of seed investing. As the Co-Founder of Floodgate, he has backed the likes of Twitch, Okta, Lyft, Twitter and more. Mike has been on the Forbes Midas List eight times in the last decade and was also named a "Rising Star" by FORTUNE and profiled by Harvard Business School for his lifetime contributions to entrepreneurship.
In Today's Episode with Mike Maples We Discuss
1.) Lesson from SVB #1: The Importance of Scenario Planning:
What is the right way to do scenario planning in startups?
What is the difference between good vs bad scenario planning?
What do the best scenario plans include and involve?
What is the right way to communicate these scenario plans to your stakeholders?
2.) Lesson from SVB #2: The Importance of Financial Agility:
What does it mean for a startup to be "financially agile"?
From a banking relationships perspective, what can startups do to be financially agile?
How many accounts should a startup have? How much runway should be in each?
Should startups bank with startup banks as well as traditional banks?
Should startups have their money in sweep accounts and money market accounts?
3.) Lesson from SVB #3: How to Master Crisis Communications:
Why is it so important for founder to over-communicate in tough times?
How transparent should they be in these communications?
What does Mike mean when he says "be radically human"?
If Mike were to face a crisis, what would he do differently in the way he communicates to his LPs?
4.) Lessons from SVB: The Wider World:
Why does Mike believe the level of quantitative easing that occurred in COVID was scandalous?
Does Mike believe the USD will continue to be the reserve currency of the world?
Will we be in a better or worse macro situation by the end of the year?
Has Mike ever had a company that achieved true PMF and failed?
#558: Ann Miura-Ko — The Path from Shyness to World-Class Debater and Investor (Repost)
Ann Miura-Ko — The Path from Shyness to World-Class Debater and Investor | Brought to you by 80,000 Hours free career advice for high impact and doing good in the world, Athletic Greens all-in-one nutritional supplement, and GiveWell.org charity research and effective giving.
“The main difference was that I was willing to outwork and outdo every competitor who walked in through that door.” — Ann Miura-Ko
Ann Miura-Ko (@annimaniac) has been called “the most powerful woman in startups” by Forbes and is a lecturer in entrepreneurship at Stanford. The child of a rocket scientist at NASA, Ann is a Palo Alto native and has been steeped in technology startups from when she was a teenager. Prior to co-founding Floodgate, she worked at Charles River Ventures and McKinsey and Company. Some of Ann’s investments include Lyft, Ayasdi, Xamarin, Refinery29, JoyRun, TaskRabbit, and Modcloth.
Due to the success of her investments, she was on the 2017 Midas List of top 100 venture capitalists. Ann is known for her debate skills (she placed first in the National Tournament of Champions and second in the State of California in high school) and was part of a five-person team at Yale that competed in the Robocup Competition in Paris, France. She has a BSEE from Yale and a PhD from Stanford in math modeling of computer security. She lives with her husband, three kids, and one spoiled dog. Her interests are piano, robots, and gastronomy.
Please enjoy!
This episode originally aired in 2018. You can find the show notes here: https://tim.blog/2018/08/02/ann-miura-ko/
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Mike Maples, Jr. - A Playbook for Startups - [Founder’s Field Guide, EP. 48]
My guest today is Mike Maples, co-founder and partner of Floodgate. As a child of the computer revolution, Mike was deconstructing calculators in grade school, writing video games in high school, and inevitably found himself building businesses in Silicon Valley after college. After his success as an operator, Mike eventually transitioned to become a full-time venture investor in the 2000s, and has since built a track record that includes Twitter, Twitch, Lyft, Octa, and a long list of successful tech businesses.
I'm not sure I've recorded a conversation with more applicable ideas and advice for company builders. We discussed early insights and secrets, value hypothesis testing, customer development, growth, team orchestration, and a lot more.
This is a masterclass from somebody who has seen it all. Also, do not miss his answer to the kindest thing question at the end of the conversation. I hope you enjoy this great talk with Mike Maples.
For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page here.
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Show Notes
[00:03:08] - [First question] - His philosophy on the power of forcing a choice
[00:04:43] - How he knows when he comes across a team that has an apple quality
[00:07:39] - Exploring and hunting new inflections in ever-changing systems
[00:10:37] - Why recognizing winning insights allows you to not have to predict the future
[00:12:23] - Whether or not the evolving nature of the funding landscape changes his thinking
[00:14:18] - An example of his insight framework and stress testing a team’s potential
[00:17:21] - Practice reckless optimism
[00:18:54] - Commonalities between teams and their ideas when they get inflections wrong
[00:20:12] - What the value hypothesis is and how to test it
[00:22:15] - Ways that effective startup teams operate compared to big corporations
[00:25:36] - His involvement post-investment and where outsiders can be most helpful in a companies’ early days
[00:28:34] - Lessons learned about finding, convincing, and marketing to their first customers
[00:32:13] - An example of early customer selection done phenomenally well
[00:34:09] - Why it was possible for companies like Justin.TV and Lift to pivot so dramatically from their original ideas
[00:38:49] - Customer development and using good customers to your advantage
[00:42:31] - Who went from founder to the best growth executive
[00:43:05] - What he thinks his firm will need to do to continue offering an apple to founders
[00:46:08] - The most useful stress tests his firm can offer founders
[00:46:52] - Defining category design and what the process of category design looks like
[00:50:33] - Inflections he’s currently paying the most attention to
[00:52:07] - His experience with an HP35 calculator and how it shaped his life
[00:54:41] - What venture capital may look like in the future
[00:56:30] - The most difficult things he faces in his career
[00:57:52] - Ways he’s learned to manage failure more effectively
[00:59:06] - The kindest thing that anyone has ever done for him
20VC: The Lyft Memo: Floodgate's Ann Miura Ko on Why Successful Seed Investing Is Not Investing In a Company But The Development of a Set of Secrets, Whether Capital Is a Defensible Moat Today &How Startups Should Approach Competition
Ann Miura Ko is the Co-Founding Partner @ Floodgate, one of the leading early-stage firms of the last decade with a portfolio including the likes of Twitter, Twitch, Lyft, Okta, Outreach and more. As for Ann, not only did she lead the round for Lyft but in the last 12 months has led rounds for 2 of the hottest companies in the valley; Popparazzi and Popshop Live. Due to her immense investing success, Ann is a multiple Forbes Midas Lister and is also a lecturer in entrepreneurship at Stanford, a co-director of the Mayfield Fellows Program at Stanford, and a member of the Board of Trustees for Yale University.
In Today's Episode with Ann Miura Ko You Will Learn:
1.) How Ann made her way from a PhD in Quantitative Modelling at Stanford to co-founding one of the leading early-stage firms in the valley?
2.) What does Ann believe is the secret to successful seed investing? What insight development did Ann believe Lyft had? How had they approached customer development in such a unique way? What are the leading signals to Ann today that founders really understand the customer development process? What questions does she ask to discover this?
3.) Why does Ann not engage in the compression of fundraising timelines today? How does she build relationships of trust and honesty with founders so early? Does Ann worry that founders have such large capital injections too early today? Why should employees examine capital efficiency, not capital raised? How does Ann advise founders on pre-emptive rounds?
4.) How did Ann and the Lyft team approach prioritization in the early days? In what ways did Lyft decide to "play their own game" when it came to the competition? How did Uber and its growth impact the financing strategy for Lyft? In what deliberate ways did John and Logan set the culture for Lyft? What have been Ann's biggest lessons from them on culture building?
5.) Does Ann believe that capital in itself is a competitive moat today? What does Ann believe needs to be proven before capital can be used as a weapon to win? In the case of Lyft, what signals or measurements did Ann define as guiding metrics for success? How did they change over time? How can founders determine their own in their businesses?
#191 with Mike Maples - 4 Big Trends and $0 to $1 Billion Startup Idea Frameworks
Shaan (@ShaanVP) and Sam (@TheSamParr) talk with seed VC Mike Maples (@m2jr). Mike is a co-founding Partner at Floodgate. He has been on the Forbes Midas List eight times in the last decade due to notable investments like Twitter, Twitch, Lyft, and Okta. In this episode he talks about the four big trends he is excited about, the types of companies he likes to invest in, and why a startup isn’t a company. He shares a few of the mental models he uses at Floodgate to evaluate startups and shares the thoughts behind some of his unique turns of phrase.
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Show notes:
* (1:02) – Debrief of the episode
* (6:37) - Intro to Mike Maples
* (9:02) - How Mike thinks about the next big thing
* (11:00) – The 4 inflections Mike is excited about
* (13:51) – Cloud Offices
* (19:33) – A brief history of centralization & decentralization
* (22:48) – Examples of software defined companies
* (26:14) – A practical way to prepare for the future
* (30:23) – How Mike thinks about investing in startups
* (33:07) – Startup investing mental models
* (37:39) – Mike’s take on "1 to n" businesses
* (42:36) – Mike on Balaji
* (47:11) – Mike on media companies
* (49:49) – Force a choice, not a comparison
* (54:46) – Mike’s information diet
* (57:40) – Contact info & future topics
#447: Books I've Loved — Ann Miura-Ko
Books I've Loved — Ann Miura-Ko | Brought to you by Audible.
Note: This episode was recorded in November 2019.
Welcome to another episode of The Tim Ferriss Show, where it is my job to sit down with world-class performers of all different types—from startup founders and investors to chess champions to Olympic athletes. This episode, however, is an experiment and part of a shorter series I’m doing called “Books I’ve Loved.” I’ve invited some amazing past guests, close friends, and new faces to share their favorite books—the books that have influenced them, changed them, and transformed them for the better. I hope you pick up one or two new mentors—in the form of books—from this new series and apply the lessons in your own life.
Ann Miura-Ko (@annimaniac) has been called “the most powerful woman in startups” by Forbes and is a lecturer in entrepreneurship at Stanford. The child of a rocket scientist at NASA, Ann is a Palo Alto native and has been steeped in technology startups from when she was a teenager. Prior to co-founding Floodgate, she worked at Charles River Ventures and McKinsey and Company. Some of Ann’s investments include Lyft, Ayasdi, Xamarin, Refinery29, JoyRun, TaskRabbit, and Modcloth.
Given the success of her investments she was on the 2017 Midas List of top 100 venture capitalists. Ann is known for her debate skills (she placed first in the National Tournament of Champions and second in the State of California in high school) and was part of a five-person team at Yale that competed in the Robocup Competition in Paris, France. She has a BSEE from Yale and a PhD from Stanford in math modeling of computer security. She lives with her husband, three kids, and one spoiled dog. Her interests are piano, robots, and gastronomy.
“Books I’ve Loved” on The Tim Ferriss Show is brought to you by Audible! I have used Audible for many years now. I love it. Audible has the largest selection of audiobooks on the planet. I listen when I’m taking walks, I listen while I’m cooking… I listen whenever I can. Audible is offering Tim Ferriss Show listeners a free audiobook with a 30-day trial membership. Just go to Audible.com/tim and browse the unmatched selection of audio programs. Then, download your free title and start listening! It’s that easy. Simply go to Audible.com/tim or text TIM to 500500 to get started today.
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20VC: Floodgate's Mike Maples on 3 Key Breakthroughs Startups Experience in Success, The Rise of Angel and Operator Funds, Multi-Stage Funds Re-Entering Seed Investing and The Insight Development Framework
Mike Maples is a Founder & Partner @ Floodgate, one of the leading early-stage firms of the last decade with investments in the likes of Lyft, Twitch, Twitter, Okta and Sonos to name a few. He has been on the Forbes Midas List since 2010 and was also named one of "8 Rising Stars" by FORTUNE Magazine. Before becoming a full-time investor, Mike was involved as a founder and operating executive at back-to-back startup IPOs, including Tivoli Systems (IPO TIVS, acquired by IBM) and Motive (IPO MOTV, acquired by Alcatel-Lucent.)
In Today's Episode You Will Learn:
1.) How Mike made his way from founding startups to entering the world of venture and the gap he saw in the market when founding Floodgate?
2.) Mike has previously said, "a startup is not a company, it is a series of breakthroughs". How does Mike define a breakthrough? What are the 2 most meaningful breakthroughs a startup can experience? Which excites Mike the most to see? How do the best startups scale pre-breakthrough to post-breakthrough?
3.) What are the core ways inflections can create breakthrough opportunities? What were Mike's learnings on inflections from investing in Lyft? What does Mike mean when he talks about the importance of "backcasting"? What did investing in Twitch teach Mike about forecasting?
4.) How does Mike feel about the rise of operator and angel funds? How does Mike analyse the re-entrance of large multi-stage funds back into seed markets? Does Mike agree with Semil Shah, "founders are voting with their feet and taking multi-stage money at seed"?
5.) As Mike's peers have all moved into larger funds, Mike did not, why? How does Mike view "fund size as your strategy"? How does Mike think about the centrality of ownership? Does Mike really believe you can concentrate capital into your winners? What are the challenges? Why does Mike feel self-promotion is one of the biggest challenges in VC?
Items Mentioned In Today's Show:
Mike's Fave Book: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
Mike's Most Recent Investment: CommonStock
As always you can follow Harry, The Twenty Minute VC and Mike and on Twitter here!
Likewise, you can follow Harry on Instagram here for mojito madness and all things 20VC.
#397: Two Questions Every Entrepreneur Should Answer
"If the customer doesn't scream, you don't have product-market fit." — Andy Rachleff
Welcome to another episode of The Tim Ferriss Show. This time, we have a slightly different episode—a takeover by Mike Maples, Jr.
Mike Maples, Jr. (@m2jr) and his firm, Floodgate, have invested in and supported many of the startups you might recognize — including Twitter, Twitch, Lyft, Chegg, and Okta, among others — long before they were household names. He's been on the Forbes Midas List eight times in the last decade, but he's much more than a successful investor. Mike has also succeeded as both a founder and operating executive.
He's also simply a great guy and the first person who really taught me how to angel invest. For more on that background, listen to my interview with Mike at tim.blog/mikemaples.
In this episode, however, Mike speaks with Andy Rachleff (@arachleff), co-founder of Wealthfront and Benchmark Capital, about two of the biggest questions that should be on every start-up founder's mind: How do you reach "product-market fit" (a term that Andy coined), and how do they know when you've achieved it?
Andy has known many of the start-up world's giants and synthesized their lessons, so you will also hear what Andy learned from Don Valentine of Sequoia, Scott Cook of Intuit, Reed Hastings of Netflix, Geoffrey Moore, Clay Christensen, Eric Ries, and Steve Blank.
The audio from this conversation is from the premiere episode of Mike's brand-new podcast, Starting Greatness, which I encourage you check out. There are some incredible guests coming.
So, if you like this conversation between Mike and Andy, be sure to subscribe to Starting Greatness on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Overcast, or wherever you get your podcasts. You can also check out the website at greatness.floodgate.com, and on Twitter you can follow Mike at @m2jr and Andy at @arachleff.
Please enjoy!
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How to find a mentor in tech with Floodgate’s Ann Miura-Ko
We have a special guest host for this episode, my teammate at Product Hunt, Abadesi Osunsade. She is the author of Dream Big, Hustle Hard: The Millennial Woman's Guide to Success in Tech. She'll be hosting more episodes alongside me this year.
Ann Miura-Ko is a founding partner at Floodgate, a seed-stage VC firm in Palo Alto. She has been called “the most powerful woman in startups” by Forbes and is an early investor in Lyft and TaskRabbit. She is also a lecturer in entrepreneurship at Stanford's School of Engineering and a founding member of All Raise.
In this episode we talk about:
Ann recounts how she got to where she is today, including what it was like growing up with a NASA scientist for a dad. She talks about some of the formative moments in her career and explains why she says that a “career path” is a misnomer.
The mentors that have helped Ann throughout her career, and why she never approaches a relationship with an expectation of mentorship, but instead always “begins with an act of service.”
Why the tech industry should always take a step back to question whether everyone prospers from its work, the five values that drive her investments at Floodgate, and why they tell entrepreneurs “your life's work is our life's work.”
How she manages her children's relationships with social media (“browsing Instagram feels like not being invited to every party everyone else is having”), how she is personally working to increase the number of underrepresented founders, and the business benefit of diversity.
We also discuss some of their favorite products including an old-fashioned note-taking system for the digital age, a better way to organize your tabs in Chrome, and a built-in CRM for your Gmail inbox.
We’ll be back next week so be sure to subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify, Breaker, Overcast, or wherever you listen to your favorite podcasts. Also, big thanks to our sponsors, Rally Rd and AngelList, for their support. 😸
Quotes from This Episode
“My belief has always been that I never asked someone to be my mentor. I would start off with an act of service, and it wasn’t built on a belief that that act of service would then lead to mentorship.” — Ann
“In ten years, I’ve seen huge changes in the funding landscape. The opportunity for someone to access capital is so much greater than when I first got started. The playing field is not level at all but it is so much more accessible than it was ten years ago.” — Ann
“When we think about economic opportunity for the masses, when we think of better education for the masses, I believe that people envision technology playing a critical role in that. To separate out prosperity from technology advances, I think is crazy. We need to have a way of creating a better future that’s characterized by optimism and hope rather than insecurity and fear.” — Ann
Companies and Products Mentioned in This Episode
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#331: Ann Miura-Ko — The Path from Shyness to World-Class Debater and Investor
Ann Miura-Ko (@annimaniac) has been called "the most powerful woman in startups" by Forbes and is a lecturer in entrepreneurship at Stanford. The child of a rocket scientist at NASA, Ann is a Palo Alto native and has been steeped in technology startups from when she was a teenager. Prior to co-founding Floodgate, she worked at Charles River Ventures and McKinsey and Company. Some of Ann's investments include Lyft, Ayasdi, Xamarin, Refinery29, JoyRun, TaskRabbit, and Modcloth.
Given the success of her investments she was on the 2017 Midas List of top 100 venture capitalists. Ann is known for her debate skills (she placed first in the National Tournament of Champions and second in the State of California in high school) and was part of a five-person team at Yale that competed in the Robocup Competition in Paris, France. She has a BSEE from Yale and a PhD from Stanford in math modeling of computer security. She lives with her husband, three kids, and one spoiled dog. Her interests are piano, robots, and gastronomy.
Enjoy!
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#286: The Man Who Taught Me How to Invest
Mike Maples, Jr. (@m2jr) is the man who taught me how to invest. He's one of my favorite people and a personal mentor.
He is a partner at Floodgate, a venture capital firm that specializes in micro-cap investments in startups. He has been on the Forbes Midas List since 2010 and named one of Fortune magazine's "8 Rising VC Stars." Before becoming a full-time investor, Mike was inolved as a founder and operating executive at back-to-back starup IPOs, including Tivoli Systems (acquired by IBM) and Motive (acquired by Alcatel-Lucent). Some of Mike's investments include Twitter, Twitch.tv. ngmoco, Weebly, Chegg, Bazaar-voice, Spiceworks, Okta, and Demandforce.
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This podcast is also brought to you by WordPress, my go-to platform for 24/7-supported, zero downtime blogging, writing online, creating websites — everything! I love it to bits, and the lead developer, Matt Mullenweg, has appeared on this podcast many times.
Whether for personal use or business, you’re in good company with WordPress — used by The New Yorker, Jay Z, FiveThirtyEight, TechCrunch, TED, CNN, and Time, just to name a few. A source at Google told me that WordPress offers “the best out-of-the-box SEO imaginable,” which is probably why it runs nearly 30% of the Internet. Go to WordPress.com/Tim to get 15% off your website today!
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If you enjoy the podcast, would you please consider leaving a short review on Apple Podcasts/iTunes? It takes less than 60 seconds, and it really makes a difference in helping to convince hard-to-get guests. I also love reading the reviews!
For show notes and past guests, please visit tim.blog/podcast.
Sign up for Tim’s email newsletter (“5-Bullet Friday”) at tim.blog/friday.
For transcripts of episodes, go to tim.blog/transcripts.
Interested in sponsoring the podcast? Please fill out the form at tim.blog/sponsor.
Discover Tim’s books: tim.blog/books.
Follow Tim:
Twitter: twitter.com/tferriss
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Past guests on The Tim Ferriss Show include Jerry Seinfeld, Hugh Jackman, Dr. Jane Goodall, LeBron James, Kevin Hart, Doris Kearns Goodwin, Jamie Foxx, Matthew McConaughey, Esther Perel, Elizabeth Gilbert, Terry Crews, Sia, Yuval Noah Harari, Malcolm Gladwell, Madeleine Albright, Cheryl Strayed, Jim Collins, Mary Karr, Maria Popova, Sam Harris, Michael Phelps, Bob Iger, Edward Norton, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Neil Strauss, Ken Burns, Maria Sharapova, Marc Andreessen, Neil Gaiman, Neil de Grasse Tyson, Jocko Willink, Daniel Ek, Kelly Slater, Dr. Peter Attia, Seth Godin, Howard Marks, Dr. Brené Brown, Eric Schmidt, Michael Lewis, Joe Gebbia, Michael Pollan, Dr. Jordan Peterson, Vince Vaughn, Brian Koppelman, Ramit Sethi, Dax Shepard, Tony Robbins, Jim Dethmer, Dan Harris, Ray Dalio, Naval Ravikant, Vitalik Buterin, Elizabeth Lesser, Amanda Palmer, Katie Haun, Sir Richard Branson, Chuck Palahniuk, Arianna Huffington, Reid Hoffman, Bill Burr, Whitney Cummings, Rick Rubin, Dr. Vivek Murthy, Darren Aronofsky, and many more.
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20VC: Floodgate's Mike Maples on What Makes Category Kings, What Most Venture Funds Do Wrong When Hiring & 'The Dance Of Product Market Fit'
Mike Maples is a Founding Partner @ Floodgate, one of the leading early-stage venture funds in the valley. Mike has made investments in the likes of Twitter, Twitch.tv, Weebly, Chegg, Bazaarvoice, Okta, and Demandforce. As a result, Mike has been on the Forbes Midas List since 2010 and was also named one of "8 Rising Stars" by FORTUNE Magazine. Before becoming a full-time investor, Mike was involved as a founder and operating executive at back-to-back startup IPOs, including Tivoli Systems (acquired by IBM) and Motive (acquired by Alcatel-Lucent.)
In Today's Episode You Will Learn:
1.) How Mike made his way into VC and came to found Floodgate?
2.) How did the investment decision-making process change for Mike with the institutionalisation and fiduciary responsibility of an LP backed fund?
3.) How does Mike approach team building with Floodgate? What does he look for in his partners? What do most funds do wrong when hiring and expanding their team?
4.) Mike has a very different way of reading product and the associated market. What does Mike mean by saying the 'dance of product market fit'? Who leads what? How do they work together? What are the reasons startups do not achieve PMF?
5.) How does Mike assess the aspect of category creation? What are the fundamentals required to be a category king? What characteristics do category kings have?
Items Mentioned In Today's Show:
Mike's Fave Book: The Top 5 Regrets of The Dying
Mike's Most Recent Investment: Dispatcher
As always you can follow Harry, The Twenty Minute VC and Mike on Twitter here!
Likewise, you can follow Harry on Snapchat here for mojito madness and all things 20VC.
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20VC: The 4 Required Powers For A Startup To Be A $500m Business with "The Most Powerful Woman in Startups", Ann Miura Ko, Co-Founder @ Floodgate
Ann Miura-Ko has been called "the most powerful woman in startups" by Forbes and is the Co-Founder of Floodgate, one of the valley's leading early stage funds with investments in the likes of Twitter, Twitch and TaskRabbit. Some of Ann's investments at Floodgate include Lyft, Ayasdi, Xamarin, Refinery29, Chloe and Isabel, Maker Media, Wanelo, TaskRabbit, and Modcloth. Ann is also a lecturer in the School of Engineering at Stanford University, where she got her PhD focused on mathematical modeling of computer security.
In Today's Episode You Will Learn:
1.) How Ann made her way into the wonderful world of VC?
2.) Ann's 2nd day in VC was 9/11, how does Ann view investing in times of crisis and downturn? How does this effect the macro-economy and her investing cadence?
Floodgate state that all venture bankable high growth companies share 4 very common characteristics with regards to power. Here we break them down:
Proprietary Power: What is it? What are it's characteristics?
Product Power: What does this imply about product market fit? What are the nuances and complexities?
Company Power: What does it take to be created and maintained? How have so many unicorns established themselves without credible and sustainable business models?
Category Power: Why it is so important to create a new category? How can this be done and who has done it well in the past?
Items Mentioned In Today's Show:
Ann's Fave Book: The Poisonwood Bible
Ann's Fave Blog or Newsletter: Benedict Evans
Ann's Most Recent Investment: The Greatist
As always you can follow The Twenty Minute VC, Harry and Ann on Twitter here! If you would like to see a more colourful side to Harry with many a mojito session, you can follow him on Snapchat here! This episode was brought to you by DesignCrowd, the online marketplace for custom graphic, logo and web design that helps startups, entrepreneurs, web developers and agencies outsource design projects to designers from around the world. How Does It Work? Once you have launched your brief, designers will begin submitting quality designs for you to review. With some constructive feedback, you can quickly generate a large gallery of designs that really do fit your needs. You can have exactly what you need within just three days. Once you have selected your favourite design, you will be sent all the files you require to update your branding. If you don't like any of the submitted designs, then DesignCrowd offers a money back guarantee. So checkout designcrowd.com/VC and enter the promo code VC100 to get an astonishing $100 off your next project.