Josh Wolfe on AI and the Breaking of Silicon Valley's Social Contract
One day it's so over. The next day we're so back. This is what it feels like gauging the AI boom right now. Everyone's looking for signs of some kind of slowdown and that investments aren't going pan out, but mostly, the dollar signs just keep piling up. And the AI winners like Nvidia, OpenAI, and Anthropic just keep seeing their market valuations rise. In the meantime, other AI players are seeing weird outcomes. Some promising startups aren't being sold, but rather their top talent is walking out the door, leaving other workers potentially in the lurch, while creating risk for venture capital bagholders. On this episode we speak with Josh Wolfe, co-founder and managing partner at the firm Lux Capital, which invests in a range of startups, many of which are in the AI space. He talks about the challenge of aligning incentives, what's overrated, what's underrated, why he thinks Nvidia may have run its course, and the threats to Silicon Valley's "social contract.”
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EP 115: Josh Wolfe (Co-Founder, Lux Capital) On Uncovering Hidden Opportunities
Josh Wolfe, co-founder and managing partner at Lux Capital, is a master at quickly understanding complex, emerging technologies. In our conversation, Josh shared how he identifies the next big thing, his contrarian views on nuclear energy, biotech, and robotics, as well as his thoughts on the state of the venture capital market today.
(00:00) Intro
(01:02) Daily News Routine
(05:28) Geopolitical Insights
(07:03) Competitiveness and Curiosity
(11:01) Investment Strategies and Risks
(26:07) The Control Labs Story
(33:48) The Founder’s Dilemma: Financial vs. Strategic Motivations
(34:33) Geopolitical Concerns: Iran and Global Politics
(36:31) Investments in Defense: Controversies and Convictions
(37:36) The State of Society: Happiness and Social Dynamics
(48:07) Artificial Intelligence: Trends and Predictions
(01:02:22) The Future of Robotics: Beyond Humanoids
(01:06:46) Ethical Implications of AI and Defense Technologies
(01:11:29) Lux Capital’s Investment Strategy and LP Relations
(01:12:43) ESG and Moral Impositions
(01:13:30) Defense and Complex Moral Valences
(01:14:19) Investment Ethics and Decision Making
(01:16:46) Venture Capital Market Outlook
(01:17:56) Challenges in Venture Capital
(01:37:12) The Role of Storytelling in Venture Capital
(01:43:20) Personal Reflections and Background
(01:51:34) Partnership Dynamics and Trust
(01:53:48) Conclusion and Final Thoughts
Executive Producer: Rashad Assir
Producer: Leah Clapper
Mixing and editing: Justin Hrabovsky
Check out Unsupervised Learning, Redpoint's AI Podcast: https://www.youtube.com/@UCUl-s_Vp-Kkk_XVyDylNwLA
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About the Show
Logan Bartlett is a Software Investor at Redpoint Ventures - a Silicon Valley-based VC with $6B AUM and investments in Snowflake, DraftKings, Twilio, and Netflix. In each episode of The Logan Bartlett Show, we sit down with the people behind today’s most important startups and extract the tactics, lessons, and frameworks they’ve learned the hard way. Conversations span hiring to GTM, product, growth, fundraising and everything in between - collectively forming the ultimate playbook to make you a better CEO, investor or board member.
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(First Ones) Josh Wolfe Of Lux Capital
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Conversation with Josh Wolfe — Where to be Bearish and Bullish in 2024
Josh Wolfe, the co-founder of Lux Capital, joins Scott to discuss the sectors he’s most excited about and those he thinks are overhyped. We also hear his thoughts on the Magnificent Seven and where the crypto market is seeing new life. Follow Josh on X, @wolfejosh.
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Josh Wolfe: The ChatGPT of Robotics is Coming
Over the last year or so, probably every venture capitalist has become interested in artificial intelligence. So people are still figuring out what types of business models actually work, and who will end up making money in the space. Josh Wolfe has been at it for a long time. As a co-founder and managing partner at Lux Capital, he's been involved in a number of deals in the space, and is already looking at what's next after the wave of excitement for chatbots since ChatGPT was released. On this episode, we talk to Josh about what he's excited about right now, including robotics, biotech, and maintenance. He tells us that just as ChatGPT opened everyone's eyes to the power of chatbots, a similar moment is coming in the robotics space.
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Josh Wolfe on Where Investors Will Make Money in AI
We're in the midst of an AI mania of sorts. In public markets, investors are placing bets on the companies perceived as being the winners of this new wave of computing. Companies that aren't even in "tech" are touting their AI bonafides. And of course, in private markets, every venture capitalist suddenly seems to be pivoting to AI in some way or another. But who will actually win? Will it be the big incumbents? Can those incumbents be disrupted? Will it be the companies who have access to unique datasets? Or will it be whoever has the most computing power? On this episode, we speak with Josh Wolfe, co-founder of Lux Capital, who has been investing in the space for several years, long before it was trendy. He talks about where he's placing his bets and how he's thinking about identifying winners.
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EP 27: Convo with Lux’s Josh Wolfe and Our Best/Worst Crypto Debate with Slow Venture’s Sam Lessin
Lux Capital’s Josh Wolfe joins to discuss startups in the current market, and the long-awaited release of the crypto debate between Zach Weinberg and Slow Venture’s Sam Lessin that got so heated we weren’t sure we could publish it.
(0:00) - Intro
(1:27) – Welcome Josh Wolfe
(3:10) – Market updates
(13:21) – Anti-bubble
(16:28) – Consolidation
(19:57) – Everything times pi
(22:35) – Welcome Sam Lessin
(25:43) – NY tech founders in ‘07
(30:44) – Slow Ventures
(33:12) – The crypto debate begins
(41:57) – On chain real estate
(49:19) – Legal protections
(1:03:10) – Does it hold up in court?
(1:09:52) – Final walk through
(1:14:42) – Bearer bonds
(1:19:58) – Zach’s reasons against crypto
(1:31:37) – Zach’s point
(1:33:51) – Carta for your DAU
(1:37:11) – Back to liquidity
(1:41:24) – Why is it not awesome?
(1:45:17) – Users
(1:52:40) – Unsettled case law
(2:00:29) – Final arguments
(2:04:10) – The boiling point
(2:06:59) – Maybe we can publish this part
(2:12:15) – Zach ending
(2:22:08) - Outro
Mixed and edited: Justin Hrabovsky
Produced: Andrew Nadeau and Rashad Assir
Executive Producer: Josh Machiz
Music: Griff Lawson
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About the Show
A Saturday morning podcast hosted by Logan Bartlett (Partner and Managing Director at Redpoint Ventures) covering the tech news with his friends and other people with industry expertise.
Executive Producer: Rashad Assir
Producer: Leah Clapper
Mixing and editing: Justin Hrabovsky
Check out Unsupervised Learning, Redpoint's AI Podcast: https://www.youtube.com/@UCUl-s_Vp-Kkk_XVyDylNwLA
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About the Show
Logan Bartlett is a Software Investor at Redpoint Ventures - a Silicon Valley-based VC with $6B AUM and investments in Snowflake, DraftKings, Twilio, and Netflix. In each episode of The Logan Bartlett Show, we sit down with the people behind today’s most important startups and extract the tactics, lessons, and frameworks they’ve learned the hard way. Conversations span hiring to GTM, product, growth, fundraising and everything in between - collectively forming the ultimate playbook to make you a better CEO, investor or board member.
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Josh Wolfe & Chris Power - Factories of the Future - [Invest Like the Best, EP.281]
My guests today are Josh Wolfe and Chris Power. Josh will be a familiar voice to many of you and is the co-founder and General Partner of Lux Capital. Chris is the founder and CEO of advanced manufacturing start-up, Hadrian. Most of our discussion centers on the need to modernize the factories that supply our space and defense industries. But given the current market environment, we also talk about capital conditions and the responsibility to build products that really matter. Please enjoy this conversation with Josh Wolfe and Chris Power.
For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page here.
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Invest Like the Best is a property of Colossus, LLC. For more episodes of Invest Like the Best, visit joincolossus.com/episodes.
Past guests include Tobi Lutke, Kevin Systrom, Mike Krieger, John Collison, Kat Cole, Marc Andreessen, Matthew Ball, Bill Gurley, Anu Hariharan, Ben Thompson, and many more.
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Show Notes
[00:02:40] - [First question] - An overview of the precision manufacturing industry writ large
[00:08:28] - Why the manufacturing sector has so many great investment opportunities
[00:12:58] - Anduril Breakdown; What Hadrian in its final form will unlock for manufacturing
[00:16:08] - What the demand side looks like for manufacturers in its current state today
[00:18:29] - How the nature of demand will shift for this style of manufacturing in the future
[00:22:51] - Important rare earth materials, supply chain constraints, and the revival of commodities
[00:27:55] - The key set of jobs being done by mom and pop shops that could be innovated on and done within a Hadrian factory
[00:30:35] - What is going on inside of a Hadrian factory and how they will evolve over time
[00:32:10] - Prosecuting diligence on someone's ability to execute on their behalf
[00:37:14] - The PhD arrogance trap and how a Hadrian machine will be better in five years from now
[00:48:08] - Breadth of ability versus focus and selling parts to buyers early on
[00:50:42] - Lessons learned and advice for understanding the focus problem
[00:56:39] - Fat startup vs. lean startups and making the hardest irreversible decision during Hadrian’s early days
[00:58:31] - Enduring more schlep work than less being a good signal
[00:59:06] - Chris’ thoughts on the future of Hadrian and defining the exciting and scary edges of the spectrum of outcomes
[01:03:36] - Josh’s thoughts on the future of Hadrian and defining the exciting and scary edges of the spectrum of outcomes
[01:07:22] - The kindest thing anyone has ever done for Chris
EP 14: Lux Capital’s Josh Wolfe Talks Musk, Adobe’s Scott Belsky Talks Twitter, Bolt and Breslow Again, and Entering The Golden Age of Fraud Lawyers
(00:00) Introducing Josh Wolfe
(02:41) Elon Musk Buys Twitter Because No One Told Him He Can Buy Other Stuff
(39:58) Bolt, Katara, and the World’s Greatest Time to be a Law Firm
(56:53) Introducing Scott Belsky
(57:18) Trying to Explain Twitter
(67:55) Algorithms and Free Speech
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Mixed and edited: Justin Hrabovsky
Produced: Andrew Nadeau and Rashad Assir
Executive Producer: Josh Machiz
Music: Griff Lawson
Musk buys Twitter: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/25/technology/twitter-employees-elon-musk.html
Sam Lessin article: https://www.theinformation.com/articles/elon-musk-is-silicon-valleys-new-hero-for-better-or-worse
Jack Dorsey’s tweet on Musk’s purchase: https://twitter.com/jack/status/1518772753460998145?s=20&t=njyqUGHJChL4oAQdEkkTCw
Bolt Sued by Forever 21: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-26/forever-21-parent-authentic-brands-sues-bolt-startup
Katera sues ex-CEO: https://www.theinformation.com/articles/bankrupt-startup-that-blew-2-billion-from-softbank-sues-ex-ceo-board-directors-over-self-dealing
Softbank cuts spending: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-25/softbank-cuts-back-spending-leaving-startups-desperate-for-cash
Executive Producer: Rashad Assir
Producer: Leah Clapper
Mixing and editing: Justin Hrabovsky
Check out Unsupervised Learning, Redpoint's AI Podcast: https://www.youtube.com/@UCUl-s_Vp-Kkk_XVyDylNwLA
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About the Show
Logan Bartlett is a Software Investor at Redpoint Ventures - a Silicon Valley-based VC with $6B AUM and investments in Snowflake, DraftKings, Twilio, and Netflix. In each episode of The Logan Bartlett Show, we sit down with the people behind today’s most important startups and extract the tactics, lessons, and frameworks they’ve learned the hard way. Conversations span hiring to GTM, product, growth, fundraising and everything in between - collectively forming the ultimate playbook to make you a better CEO, investor or board member.
Tap follow and enable notifications to stay ahead of the game.
The Nuclear Narrative We All Fell For | Josh Wolfe
On today's episode of Empire, Jason Yanowitz and Santiago Roel Santos are joined by Josh Wolfe, co-founder of Lux Capital. Josh is a true polymath who invests in hard sciences, robotics, nuclear waste and more.
If you wanted a nuclear energy crash course, this is it. Josh discusses where solar and biofuels fell short, how nuclear energy markets function, why nuclear is the sustainable-energy source environmentalist have wanted, and how nuclear is the key to energy security.
Nuclear energy is inevitable. Listen to Josh's unique insights to learn why.
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Subscribe to the podcast on Apple: https://apple.co/3srZf7M
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Timestamps
(00:00) Introduction
(01:58) Solar Energy Hype
(07:16) Bio Fuels Fell Short
(09:40) Energy Density
(10:58) The Nuclear Narrative
(15:31) Understanding the Uranium Market
(18:44) Modular Reactors
(19:49) Intro to Nuclear Waste
(22:33) Low-Level and High-Level Nuclear Waste
(24:11) Russia's Impact on the Nuclear Narrative
(28:45) Sponsor Segment
(30:01) Adopting Nuclear
(33:39) Investing in Nuclear
(37:30) China and the Nuclear Advantage
(40:51) Cheap Electricity and Jevon's Paradox
(44:39) Lux's Investment in Nuclear
(48:53) Black Swan Events
(52:19) Looking Forward
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Empire is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Santiago, Jason, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
Emerging Technologies and China’s Crackdown on Tech — with Josh Wolfe
Josh Wolfe, the co-founder of Lux Capital, joins Scott to discuss his thoughts on the tech regulations coming out of China, and how investors should be thinking about them. He also discusses the sectors he’s keeping tabs on, including space and the metaverse, and the ones that he thinks are over and underhyped. Follow Josh on Twitter, @wolfejosh.
Scott opens by having a conversation with Pascal Gauthier, the CEO of Ledger. Ledger is building a hardware wallet for crypto assets — and full disclosure — Scott’s an investor. Pascal explains the technology and shares his thoughts on the crypto space. Follow Pascal on Twitter, @_pgauthier.
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Josh Wolfe and Tony Thomas - The Past, Present, and Future of Defense – [Invest Like the Best, EP. 216]
My guests today are Josh Wolfe and Tony Thomas, better known as T2. Josh is the co-founder and General Partner at Lux Capital. T2 is now a venture partner alongside Josh at Lux Capital, after serving for almost 40 years in the US military and becoming a 4-star general and the 11th Commander of US Special Operations Command. Our conversation focuses on the technology frontier in defense as well as the geopolitical threats that the US faces. We talk about everything from semiconductors and autonomous weapons systems to the moral dimensions of investing in defense technology. I hope you enjoy this fascinating conversation with Josh Wolfe and Tony Thomas.
For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page here.
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Show Notes
[00:03:46] - [First question] - Overview of Tony Thomas’s career
[00:06:36] - His focus on the information wars and truthiness
[00:08:50] - How Josh and Tony met
[00:12:27] - Experiencing the slow pace of technology growth within the Department of Defense
[00:15:51] - History of businesses selling to and engaging with the government
[00:23:52] - Consensus of the threats we face today
[00:28:55] - Most important competitive frontier today
[00:35:09] - The lessening of kinetic warfare
[00:46:51] - State of the drone technology and industry
[00:52:56] - Mapping the arctic and the geopolitical ramifications
[00:54:31] - The frontier of space
[00:59:26] - What shouldn’t be unmanned technology
[01:02:31] - The cutting edge of simulation technology
[01:06:50] - The most important thing to know about the future of semiconductors
[01:11:36] - The moral lens of working with and investing in defense companies
[01:20:53] - Traits of the most exceptional soldiers he’s served with
[01:23:53] - Kindest thing anyone has done for Tony
Josh Wolfe – The Tech Imperative - [Invest Like the Best, EP.130]
My guest this week is Josh Wolfe, co-founder and managing partner at Lux Capital. I had Josh on the podcast last year which was one of the most popular episodes in the shows history. This is a continuation of our ongoing conversation about investing in the frontiers of technology. My favorite thing about Josh and the way that he invests is the mosaic that he and his team at Lux are constantly building to understand the world and where new companies may fit in. We cover a crazy variety of topics from business model innovation, roles of a CEO, the military, the death of privacy, and arrows of human progress. Please enjoy round two with Josh Wolfe.
For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast.
Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub.
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Show Notes
1:22 - (First Question) –Ability to tackle massive scale problems
4:05 – Key roles of leaders and his checklist for evaluating them
5:55 – Common traits among founders that make them incredible storytellers and leaders
10:22 – The concept of ill-liquidity
14:53 – Thoughts on the types of companies going public
16:41 – Most innovative business models
19:14 - Advice for LP’s
23:51 – Common devil
24:01 – The True Believer: Thoughts on the Nature of Mass Movements
25:09 – Big internal debates at his firm, starting with price discipline
28:45 – The value debate internally
33:34 – CRISPR from an investment standpoint
36:50 – Edge cases they are looking at
46:52 – How they target ideas in a single concept
50:01 – The Coast of Utopia: Voyage, Shipwreck, Salvage
51:04 – New theses that they chase
56:31 – Recent adventure with special operations guys
Learn More
For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast.
Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub
Follow Patrick on twitter at @patrick_oshag
Josh Wolfe - This is Who You Are Up Against - [Invest Like the Best, EP.76]
Long-time listeners will have heard me joke before that this podcast should really be called “this is who are you up against.” I’ve been waiting for the right episode to deploy the joke as a title, and this week we have it.
The joke is meant to convey how incredibly impressive these people are who we get to hear from every week. My guest this week is Josh Wolfe, a founding and managing partner at Lux Capital in New York City. Lux is a venture capital firm, but a highly unique one. They’ve spent more time in hard sciences and interesting nooks and crannies of the market than the typical VC firm.
Some of investing is zero sum: my outperformance is someone else’s underperformance. Sometimes, though, investing is positive sum. The combination of capital, ideas, people, drive, and raw energy leads to amazing new things.
I think the best investing and best investors of the future will be more collaborative than competitive. After finishing with Josh, I couldn’t stop thinking “god, do I want to be involved with whatever he’s doing, if only just to learn.”
This conversation made me rethink my joke “this is who are you up against.” Now I won’t think of it as a zero-sum joke, but instead as a reminder: this is the kind of person who is out there. You better find your niche, and still be the absolute best you can within that niche.
Please enjoy this killer conversation with Josh Wolfe. We cover just about everything.
For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast.
Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub.
Follow Patrick on Twitter at @patrick_oshag
Links Referenced
Investing in Biofuels or Biofools?
Ali Hamed podcast
Alex Moazed podcast
Andy Rachleff podcast
Popplet
@wolfejosh
Books Referenced
Modern Monopolies: What It Takes to Dominate the 21st Century Economy
World After Capital
Show Notes
2:35 – (First Question) – Lux Capital and the kind of investments they have made over the years
5:42 – The formation of the investment philosophy for Lux
9:52 – Investment philosophy 100-0-100 (ambition, arrogance, intellectual humility)
10:40 – How Josh manages his time and attention
12:53 – Investing in Biofuels or Biofools?
13:29 – Obsession with nuclear
18:28 – Focus on autonomous vehicles
21:02 – How all of these gambles are viewed by Josh’s investors
22:56 – Tattoo technology
24:20 – Ali Hamed podcast
24:36 – How Josh evaluates people when considering early stage investments
24:45 – Alex Moazed podcast
24:49 – Modern Monopolies: What It Takes to Dominate the 21st Century Economy
29:50 – Memorable experience investing in a founder
30:44 – The idea of thesis driven approach to private investment
30:56 – Andy Rachleff podcast
32:38 – Crazy thesis – understanding the emotional needs of our pets
38:03 – Josh’s learning process through these theses
38:34 – Popplet
45:49 – Investors that Josh has learned the most from
47:37 – Josh’s comfort investing outside of his usual asset class
49:03 – @wolfejosh
50:56 – What is the thinking with the short strategy at Lux
52:31 – SpaceX vs Tesla, good business vs bad business
53:42 – How Josh approaches the quality of a business
54:15 – World After Capital
55:16 – How does Josh evaluate competitive advantage
56:45 – Where are we in the venture capital landscape
1:01:42 – How does his outlook on venture capital affect the way Lux is run
1:02:48 – Thoughts on cryptocurrency
1:07:22 – What is the most memorable conversation Josh has ever had
1:09:34 – What is Josh’s objective function in life
1:12:43 – Are there people that Josh disagrees with but deeply respects
1:13:32 – Kindest thing anyone has ever done for Josh
Learn More
For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast.
Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub
Follow Patrick on twitter at @patrick_oshag
20VC: The 3 Forms Of Edge A Founder Can Have, Lessons From Being on A Board With Bill Gates & Why There Are A Lot Of Tourist VCs Who Are Going To Lose A Lot Of Money, with Josh Wolfe, Co-Founder @ Lux Capital
Josh Wolfe is the Co-Founder and Managing Partner @ Lux Capital, the fund that supports scientists and entrepreneurs who pursue counter-conventional solutions to the most vexing puzzles of our time, the more ambitious the project, the better. Josh is a founding investor and board member with Bill Gates in Kymeta, making cutting-edge antennas for high-speed global satellite and space communications. In 2008 Josh co-founded and funded Kurion, the company was among the first responders to the Fukushima disaster. In February 2016, Veolia acquired Kurion for nearly $400 million—more than 40 times Lux's total investment.
In Today's Episode You Will Learn:
1.) How did Josh make his way into VC from the science lab? What was it about venture that got Josh hooked?
2.) How does Josh view the rise of thematic investing? Why does Josh believe there are a lot of tourist VCs who are going to lose a lot of money?
3.) Investing in such frontier technologies, how does Josh view market creation? How does Josh look to build a thesis and a methodology when investing in a company without an existing market?
4.) What is the inflection point for Josh for when heavy science and R&D becomes investable? What is that tipping point where science becomes commercialized?
5.) Does Josh get concerned that with such heavy IP and corporations not investing in R&D that this is a market for acquihires? What are the pros and cons of this shortened liquidity cycles?
Items Mentioned In Today's Show:
Josh's Fave Book: Sapiens
Josh's Fave Blog: Media Redefined
Josh's Most Recent Investment: Recursion Pharmaceuticals
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