Resurgence of 'degenerate behavior' is behind 2023's crypto rally
Since the start of 2023, the total crypto market cap has risen over 20%, and daily exchange volume has nearly tripled, according to data from The Block Research.
In this Market Pulse edition of The Scoop, The Block's VP of Research Larry Cermak and eGirl Capital's Hedgedhog discuss the dynamics shaping the crypto market's current rally, and explain why they aren't holding out hope for a sustained uptrend.
According to Cermak, crypto is lacking a strong enough narrative to be able to break free from broader macro uncertainty.
"I think the biggest difference is that right now we don't really have anything to kind of drive the rally to have legs under it, and I think there's still a lot of uncertainty in the macro markets," he said.
Hedgedhog shares Cermak's doubts about the current trend, noting how quickly retail market participants have begun displaying risk-on behavior:
"We're seeing a lot of degenerate behavior coming back really quickly — Canto and all these new NFTs, and there are new Ohm forks … people haven't really learned anything, and they're really risk-on already."
During this episode, Chaparro, Cermak, and Hedgedhog also discuss:
How traders are positioning for Ethereum's Shanghai upgrade
Why the NFT market is set to decorrelate from crypto
A look inside the centralized exchange turf war
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eGirl Capital and Larry Cermak on the dynamics shaping the crypto bear market
Crypto-native venture firm eGirl Capital is a syndicate of pseudonymous individuals who invest in early-stage web3 projects, and provide colorful market commentary on Twitter.
In this special segment of The Scoop, Frank Chaparro is joined by The Block’s VP of Research, Larry Cermak, and eGirl Capital’s Co-Founder, Hedgehog, to discuss how this crypto bear market compares to previous cycles, and to explain how investors can spend this drawdown building an edge for the next bull market.
According to Hedgehog, who is primarily a directional trader, crypto market conditions are suffering because there is less credit in the system. “Less credit leads to less liquidity and less volume,” says Hedgehog, “It's really a wasteland out there for us at the moment.”
As data from The Block shows, daily crypto exchange volume is close to half of what it was at the start of the year–although have ticked up in recent days.
During this period of reduced market activity, Cermak says it is important not only to be patient, but also to stay engaged:
“A lot of people stay patient, but actually stop paying attention day-to-day. Those people that actually stay engaged… are in the best position for the next cycle, and they're also the ones that will be able to the most accurately predict when activity starts picking up again.”
Episode 108 of Season 4 of The Scoop was recorded live with The Block's Frank Chaparro and Larry Cermak and eGirl Capital Co-Founder, Hedgehog.
Listen below, and subscribe to The Scoop on Apple, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher or wherever you listen to podcasts. Email feedback and revision requests can be sent to podcast@theblockcrypto.com.
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