Greg Brew on Surging Energy and the 'Strategic Trap' of the War in Iran
The war in Iran has already lasted longer than many people might have expected. There was an initial assumption, after oil prices started surging, that President Trump could just declare victory at any moment. But that hasn't happened, and the longer this goes on, the more damage is being done to the region's energy infrastructure. Already a key gas plant in Qatar has been damaged so badly that it's expected to take it years to repair. On this episode, we speak with return guest Gregory Brew, a senior analyst at Eurasia Group who specializes in energy and Iran. Beyond his current work, Greg is the author of two books on the history of oil in Iran. We discuss the logic of the war from both the Iranian and American perspectives, and why the Trump administration may have walked into a "strategic trap" with no easy way to declare victory and get out.
Read more:
Iran Leaves an Isolated Trump Grappling With Historic Oil Crisis
How Iran Has Effectively Closed the Strait of Hormuz
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This Is What Maduro's Arrest Means for the Oil Market
Venezuela is sitting on, by some measures, the biggest oil reserves in the world. And yet, in the immediate wake of Maduro's capture by US forces, the actual price of oil has moved very little. So what gives? And what are the stakes for the industry? On this episode, we speak with Gregory Brew, a senior analyst at the Eurasia Group. Greg has the perfect background for this conversation, because in addition to closely monitoring both the oil industry and the global geopolitical environment, he's a trained historian. So we talk about the long history of the Venezuelan oil industry, starting in its boom years, and then its ultimate decline amid nationalization, corruption, sanctions, and blockades. He explains to us the potential huge costs of restarting production, the actual logic behind the arrest, as well as potential fallout across Latin America, and with Venezuela's friends, such as Iran, China, and Cuba.
Read more:
Trump Says Venezuela to Send US Up to 50 Million Barrels of Oil
Slumping Mideast Oil Market Adds to Signs of Global Weakness
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Lots More with Gregory Brew
So far, the war between Israel and Hamas has had only a mild impact on world markets. Oil prices are higher than they were prior to the terrorist attack on October 7, but the link between the war and the broader oil market is ambiguous. So what are the risks, if the conflict widens or remains prolonged? On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Gregory Brew, analyst at the Eurasia Group, to get a better understanding of what we've seen so far, and the the things we should be watching for.
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Guyana Is the Most Exciting Story in the World Oil Market
We talk a lot about the US shale boom. And we talk a lot about OPEC. But one of the most exciting stories in the global oil industry is the incredible rise of Guyana, which has seen a massive amount of oil discovery over the past several years. This oil boom has made the South American country one of the fastest growing economies in the world. So what does history say about the emergence of a new oil superpower? On this episode of the podcast, we speak with oil historian Gregory Brew about the Guyana story, and what happens when so much new oil is being produced outside of OPEC.
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