Graham Allison on the Global Realignment: Iran, China, Israel, Greenland
(0:00) The Besties welcome legendary Harvard professor Graham Allison
(1:14) Iran Conflict: Strategy, Netanyahu's influence, Trump's motivation, redefining Middle East security
(11:44) Iran endgame scenarios: Democracy, extremism, second-order effects
(21:07) Israel: Is Netanyahu destroying Israel's democracy?
(24:28) China: Taiwan invasion, trade, and Trump's April meeting
(39:50) Greenland: Importance, deal scenarios, EU socialism angle
(48:58) Nuclear proliferation: 80-80-9 framework explained
(56:20) Rising socialism in America: wealth inequality and political risk
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Graham Allison on the Risks of a US-China War
The US and China are in a "Thucydides Trap," whereby the risk of war is heightened when an established power is threatened by a rapidly rising power. This is the framework that's been popularized by Graham Allison, the Douglas Dillon Professor of Government at Harvard University. Professor Allison has been writing about China and the US-China relationship for decades. He's been focused on the growing odds of a violent conflict between the two powers. On this episode, he explains his work and the conditions that drive greater risk of armed conflict. He also tells us what both sides get wrong about each other, and what it will take to reduce the odds of military involvement.
More: Henry Wang on China's Role in the New Emerging World Order
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a16z Podcast: Centers of Power, War, and History
with Graham Allison and Matthew Colford
"When a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power, shit happens." It's true of people, it's true of companies, and it's even more true of countries. It's also the fundamental insight captured by ancient Greek historian Thucydides in his History of The Pelopennesian War. But where he was describing the war between Sparta and Athens, modern historian and political scientist Graham Allison describes how U.S. and China can escape this rising vs. ruling power "Thucydides trap" in his new book, Destined for War. Allison -- advisor on U.S. national security and policy to several secretaries of defense spanning decades -- was former dean of the Kennedy School and most recently Director of Harvard's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs.
Based on an internal policy series lunch speaker event earlier this year (and moderated by a16z partner Matthew Colford), the conversation touches very briefly on centers of power and creativity; tech in China; North Korea; and finally, the role of applying history -- "applied history", much like the field of engineering could be considered applied physics -- to our thinking about the future. By analyzing the analogs and precedents in the historical record, what clues or insights or lessons might we draw? Because business as usual will produce history as usual argues Allison... but only those of us who fail to study history will repeat it.
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