Why ChatGPT will be the next big growth channel (and how to capitalize on it) | Brian Balfour (Reforge)
Brian Balfour is the founder of Reforge, the former VP of Growth at HubSpot, and a student (and teacher) of product growth. Brian has studied every major platform shift—from Facebook to Apple to Google—and he’s spotted a pattern that’s about to repeat with ChatGPT.
In this conversation, you’ll learn:
1. The 4-step cycle every platform follows (and why ChatGPT just entered step 2)
2. Why ChatGPT’s platform launch could be bigger than Facebook’s early platform
3. The exact signals that ChatGPT will launch a third-party platform within six months
4. Why you have six months (not years) to make your platform bet
5. Why companies that don’t integrate with ChatGPT will lose to competitors that do
6. How Zynga grew to $1B by betting on Facebook’s platform early (before it was obvious)
7. Why so few companies are actually doing what they need to be doing right now
—
Brought to you by:
DX—The developer intelligence platform designed by leading researchers: http://getdx.com/lenny
Basecamp—The famously straightforward project management system from 37signals: https://www.basecamp.com/lenny
Miro—A collaborative visual platform where your best work comes to life: https://miro.com/lenny
—
Transcript: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/why-chatgpt-will-be-the-next-big-growth-channel-brian-balfour
—
My biggest takeaways (for paid newsletter subscribers): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/i/170294620/my-biggest-takeaways-from-this-conversation
—
Where to find Brian Balfour:
• X: https://twitter.com/bbalfour
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/bbalfour/
• Website: https://brianbalfour.com/
• Substack: https://blog.brianbalfour.com/
• Podcast: https://www.reforge.com/podcast/unsolicited-feedback
—
Where to find Lenny:
• Newsletter: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com
• X: https://twitter.com/lennysan
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lennyrachitsky/
—
In this episode, we cover:
(00:00) Welcome back, Brian!
(04:13) The changing landscape of product growth
(05:09) The importance of distribution
(08:14) The role of new distribution platforms
(09:45) The four-step cycle of distribution platforms
(17:38) Examples of platform cycles
(30:01) The rise of ChatGPT
(44:47) The future of AI agents
(46:01) Preferred partners and platform credibility
(47:18) Monetization mechanisms and free tiers
(48:14) Betting strategies for startups
(01:04:34) Adopting AI tools: challenges and strategies
(01:08:41) The importance of hard constraints
(01:14:23) Effective AI adoption in companies
(01:19:05) Lightning round and final thoughts
—
Referenced:
• The Next Great Distribution Shift: https://blog.brianbalfour.com/p/the-next-great-distribution-shift
• Brian Balfour: 10 lessons on career, growth, and life: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/brian-balfour-10-lessons-on-career
• This Week #9: Breaking into growth, leading with influence, and (not) stepping on toes: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/this-week-9-breaking-into-growth
• Distribution vs. Innovation: https://a16z.com/distribution-vs-innovation/
• On Platform Shifts and AI: https://caseyaccidental.com/on-platform-shifts-and-ai/
• How to sell your ideas and rise within your company | Casey Winters, Eventbrite: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/how-to-sell-your-ideas-and-rise-within
• Thinking beyond frameworks | Casey Winters (Pinterest, Eventbrite, Airbnb, Tinder, Canva, Reddit, Grubhub): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/thinking-beyond-frameworks-casey
• ChatGPT: https://chatgpt.com/
• Claude: https://claude.ai/
• Gemini: https://gemini.google.com/
• Vine: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vine_(service)
• Periscope: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Periscope_(service)
• Myspace: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myspace
• Friendster: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friendster
• AltaVista: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AltaVista
• Lycos: https://www.lycos.com/
• HubSpot: https://www.hubspot.com/
• Zynga: https://www.zynga.com/
• TBPN: https://www.tbpn.com/
• Deedy Das on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/debarghyadas/
• ChatGPT’s product retention curves are a product manager's wet dream: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/debarghyadas_chatgpts-product-retention-curves-are-a-activity-7338384752393035776-ice1/
• Windsurf: https://windsurf.com/
• Building a magical AI code editor used by over 1 million developers in four months: The untold story of Windsurf | Varun Mohan (co-founder and CEO): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/the-untold-story-of-windsurf-varun-mohan
• Anthropic’s CPO on what comes next | Mike Krieger (co-founder of Instagram): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/anthropics-cpo-heres-what-comes-next
• Udemy: https://www.udemy.com/
• Cursor: https://cursor.com/
• The rise of Cursor: The $300M ARR AI tool that engineers can’t stop using | Michael Truell (co-founder and CEO): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/the-rise-of-cursor-michael-truell
• Notion: https://www.notion.com/
• Airtable: https://www.airtable.com/
• Monday: monday.com
• Sierra: http://sierra.ai
• He saved OpenAI, invented the “Like” button, and built Google Maps: Bret Taylor on the future of careers, coding, agents, and more: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/he-saved-openai-bret-taylor
• Introducing ChatGPT agent: bridging research and action: https://openai.com/index/introducing-chatgpt-agent/
• Zigging vs. zagging: How HubSpot built a $30B company | Dharmesh Shah (co-founder/CTO): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/lessons-from-30-years-of-building
• Marc Andreessen on Why Optimism Is the Safest Bet: https://nymag.com/marc-andressen-2014-10-20/
• Reforge: https://www.reforge.com
• Reforge Insights: https://www.reforge.com/insights
• Shopify: https://www.shopify.com/
• 25 proven tactics to accelerate AI adoption at your company: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/25-proven-tactics-to-accelerate-ai
• Clouded Judgement: https://cloudedjudgement.substack.com/
• NFX: https://www.nfx.com/news
• James Currier: https://www.nfx.com/team/james-currier
• Hallway Chat: https://www.hallwaychat.co/
• Bryan Johnson on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/bryanrjohnson/
• Silicon Valley on HBO: https://www.hbomax.com/shows/silicon-valley/b4583939-e39f-4b5c-822d-5b6cc186172d
• Stick: https://tv.apple.com/us/show/stick/umc.cmc.52w04zy67tiv11p8xvbc57wmc
• Ergonofis standing desks: https://ergonofis.com/en-us/collections/standing-desks
• Coping with the loss of a child and protecting your time | Brian Balfour (father of 2, CEO and founder Reforge, venture partner): https://www.startupdadpod.com/coping-with-the-loss-of-a-child-and-protecting-your-time-brian-balfour-father-of-2-ceo-and-found/
—
Production and marketing by https://penname.co/. For inquiries about sponsoring the podcast, email podcast@lennyrachitsky.com.
Lenny may be an investor in the companies discussed.
To hear more, visit www.lennysnewsletter.com
Brian Balfour: 10 lessons on career, growth, and life
Brought to you by Jira Product Discovery—Atlassian’s new prioritization and roadmapping tool built for product teams | Coda—Meet the evolution of docs | Wix Studio—The web creation platform built for agencies
—
Brian Balfour is the founder and CEO of Reforge. Prior to Reforge, he was the VP of Growth at HubSpot and co-founded three other startups. In today’s episode, Brian shares 10 lessons from his career, growth, and life:
• Lesson 1: Inspect the work, not the person.
• Lesson 2: Tell me what it takes to win; then tell me the cost.
• Lesson 3: Problems never end (and that’s okay).
• Lesson 4: The year is made in the first six months.
• Lesson 5: Growth is a system between acquisition, retention, and monetization. Change one and you affect them all.
• Lesson 6: Do the opposite.
• Lesson 7: Use cases, not personas.
• Lesson 8: Solving for everyone is solving for no one.
• Lesson 9: Find sparring partners, not mentors or coaches.
• Lesson 10: 2x+ the activation energy for things that need to change.
—
Find the full transcript at: https://www.lennyspodcast.com/brian-balfour-10-lessons-on-career-growth-and-life/
—
Where to find Brian Balfour:
• X: https://twitter.com/bbalfour
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/bbalfour/
• Website: https://brianbalfour.com/
—
Where to find Lenny:
• Newsletter: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com
• X: https://twitter.com/lennysan
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lennyrachitsky/
—
In this episode, we cover:
(00:00) Brian’s background
(04:29) His Notion doc of lessons
(07:35) Lesson 1: Inspect the work, not the person
(12:39) Implementing lesson 1 and a recap of Reforge Artifacts
(16:01) Lesson 2: Tell me what it takes to win; then tell me the cost
(18:17) Why you should revisit your ideal end state often
(20:25) How planning works at Reforge
(23:50) Lesson 3: Problems never end (and that’s okay)
(26:31) The “players, coaches, captains” framework
(30:24) How AI will allow for smaller teams
(34:13) Small teams do bigger things
(34:37) Lesson 4: The year is made in the first six months
(38:20) Lesson 5: Growth is a system between acquisition, retention, and monetization
(40:44) Examples of engagement and retention problems from HubSpot and Reforge
(46:21) Lesson 6: Do the opposite
(55:25) Brian’s thoughts on category creation
(57:39) Lesson 7: Use cases, not personas
(1:01:18) The use case map
(1:03:38) Lesson 8: Solving for everyone is solving for no one
(1:11:14) There are many ways to do product
(1:16:52) Lesson 9: Find sparring partners, not mentors or coaches
(1:23:49) Advice on setting the tone for group sharing
(1:25:07) Lesson 10: You need to give 2x the activation energy for things that need to change
(1:32:02) Lightning round
—
Referenced:
• Reforge: https://www.reforge.com/
• Frank Slootman on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/frankslootman/
• Artifacts: https://artifacts.reforge.com/artifacts
• Ray Dalio’s 5 Step Process: https://commoncog.com/dalios-5-step-process-to-getting-what-you-want/
• Building effective teams: https://www.reforge.com/blog/building-effective-teams
• Scott Belsky’s website: https://www.scottbelsky.com/
• MOOCs: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massive_open_online_course
• The Creative Act: A Way of Being: https://www.amazon.com/Creative-Act-Way-Being/dp/0593652886/
• A Breakdown of LinkedIn’s AI Assisted Growth Loop: https://brianbalfour.com/essays/a-breakdown-of-linkedins-ai-assisted-growth-loop
• Lex Fridman Podcast: https://lexfridman.com/podcast/
• Acquired podcast: https://www.acquired.fm/
• Unsolicited Feedback podcast: https://www.reforge.com/podcast/unsolicited-feedback
• Elena Verna Analyzes Airtable’s Shift to Enterprise and Slack’s Product Roadmap: https://www.reforge.com/podcast/unsolicited-feedback/episode-5
• The ultimate guide to product-led sales | Elena Verna: https://www.lennyspodcast.com/the-ultimate-guide-to-product-led-sales-elena-verna/
• How to become a category pirate | Christopher Lochhead (author of Play Bigger, Niche Down, Category Pirates, more): https://www.lennyspodcast.com/how-to-become-a-category-pirate-christopher-lochhead-author-of-play-bigger-niche-down-category/
• Dharmesh Shah on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/dharmesh/
• The ultimate guide to JTBD | Bob Moesta (co-creator of the framework): https://www.lennyspodcast.com/the-ultimate-guide-to-jtbd-bob-moesta-co-creator-of-the-framework/
• How to sell your ideas and rise within your company | Casey Winters, Eventbrite: https://www.lennyspodcast.com/how-to-sell-your-ideas-and-rise-within-your-company-casey-winters-eventbrite/
• Target the Right Market: https://hbr.org/2012/10/target-the-right-market-2
• Douglas Atkin on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/doatkin
• How Linear builds product: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/how-linear-builds-product
• How Notion builds product: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/how-notion-builds-product
• Aaron White on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/aaronmwhite/
• Ariel Diaz on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/arieldiaz/
• Ray Dalio’s website: https://www.principles.com/
• Zero to One: Notes on Startups, or How to Build the Future: https://www.amazon.com/Zero-One-Notes-Startups-Future/dp/0804139296
• The Wolf of Wall Street on Netflix: https://www.netflix.com/title/70266676
• Margin Call on Prime Video: https://www.amazon.com/Margin-Call-Kevin-Spacey/dp/B005UT29Z0
• The Big Short on Netflix: https://www.netflix.com/title/80075560
• The Bear on Hulu: https://www.hulu.com/series/the-bear-05eb6a8e-90ed-4947-8c0b-e6536cbddd5f
• Halt and Catch Fire on Prime Video: https://www.amazon.com/Halt-Catch-Fire-Season-1/dp/B00KCXIHJG
• Vuori: https://vuoriclothing.com/
• The man in the arena: https://www.theodorerooseveltcenter.org/Learn-About-TR/TR-Encyclopedia/Culture-and-Society/Man-in-the-Arena.aspx
• Startup Dads podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/startup-dad/id1693312339
—
Production and marketing by https://penname.co/. For inquiries about sponsoring the podcast, email podcast@lennyrachitsky.com.
—
Lenny may be an investor in the companies discussed.
This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.lennysnewsletter.com/subscribe
20Growth: Why Product-Market Fit is Not Enough, Revenue Does Not Create Usage, Metrics Must Be Before Strategy, Why it is Always Better to Concentrate than Diversify Marketing Channels and Secrets from Hubspot's Growth Engine with Brian Balfour @ Reforge
Brian Balfour is the Founder and CEO of Reforge. Previously, he was the VP of Growth @ HubSpot. Prior to HubSpot, he was an EIR @ Trinity Ventures and founder of Boundless Learning and Viximo. He advises companies including Blue Bottle Coffee, Gametime, Lumoid, GrabCAD, and Help Scout on growth and customer acquisition.
In Today's Episode with Brian Balfour We Discuss:
1. Entry into Growth and Lessons from Hubspot:
How did Brian make his entry into the world of growth?
What does Brian know now about growth that he wishes he had known when he started in growth?
What are 1-2 of his single biggest takeaways from his time at Hubspot that impacted his mindset?
2. The Foundations:
What is growth? What is it not?
What does Brian mean when he says "all growth can be boiled down to 4 things"?
When is the right time to bring in your first growth person?
Should the first growth person be senior or junior?
Should the growth team be standalone or sit within an existing function?
3. The Importance of Product Channel Fit:
What is product channel fit? How should founders approach it?
How do you know when you have it?
What are the single biggest mistakes founders make with regards to PCF?
4. Next Comes Channel Model Fit:
What is channel model fit? How should founders approach it?
What are clear indicators that you have or do not have channel model fit?
What are the biggest mistakes founders make with CMF?
5. Finally, Model Market Fit:
What is model market fit? How should founders approach it?
What are clear indicators that you have or do not have model market fit?
What are the biggest mistakes founders make with MMF?
6. Brian Balfour: AMA:
Why is product market fit not enough?
What does Brian mean when he says "revenue does not create usage"?
What are the biggest dangers of mixing customers and users?
What do Hubspot do better than anyone else to know when an existing product/strategy is dying?
Is it always better to diversify marketing channels?
Growth in Turbulent Times
In normal times, every company operates against some hypothetical growth model—a data-driven framework that describes how your product grows and how you acquire new users. These, of course, are not normal times. In the fallout from the pandemic, most founders and CEOs are in the process of completely revamping their growth models from the bottom up amid new and unpredictable consumer behavior.
This episode explores how to think about growth in turbulent times, according to two growth experts: a16z general partner Andrew Chen, who previously led the growth team at Uber, and Brian Balfour, formerly the VP of Growth at HubSpot, now the founder and CEO of Reforge, a masterclass in growth strategies (in conversation with host Lauren Murrow).
The discussion spans four sections: first, how to reassess your existing growth model, particularly when, as Brian says, the data is "completely messed"; next, we drill down into strategy and tactics for surviving the current crisis and talk about how founders can pursue growth even in the midst of widespread uncertainty and cutbacks. Third, we look ahead to discuss scenario planning and how leaders can forge a path forward. Finally, we zoom out and assess the big picture: how various categories of company may be impacted long-term, how this crisis compares to 2008 (and what that means for early-stage founders), and the industries and business models that are now prime for growth.
Stay Updated:
Find a16z on YouTube: YouTube
Find a16z on X
Find a16z on LinkedIn
Listen to the a16z Show on Spotify
Listen to the a16z Show on Apple Podcasts
Follow our host: https://twitter.com/eriktorenberg
Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.
Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
#155 – Finding the Right Models for Growth with Brian Balfour of Reforge
Ever since I came across his blog years ago, Brian Balfour (@bbalfour) has been one of the most influential people for how I think about growing online businesses. Not only is Brian a successful blogger, but he's also served as the VP of Growth at HubSpot and founded four companies. His most recent business, Reforge, generates millions in revenue helping tech professionals boost their skills. In this episode, Brian explains why it's crucial to have a visual model for growth, shares his models for growing Reforge, and discusses why sometimes the best thing you can do is the exact opposite of what everyone else is.
Transcript, speaker information, and more: https://www.indiehackers.com/podcast/155-brian-balfour-of-reforge
How to think about raising your first venture fund
Lee Jacobs and Brian Balfour join Ryan at AngelList HQ for this week's episode.
Back in the day, Lee was one of the first syndicate leads on AngelList and later went on to join as a Partner. He previously started an education marketplace startup called Campus Dock. Ryan got to know Lee at AngelList a few years ago, when Lee was kind enough to help him craft his deck as he went out to raise his first fund. Lee is now a full-time investor with his own fund, Edelweiss, which he started with Brian Balfour, Elaine Wherry, and Todd Masonis.
Brian Balfour invests part-time at Edelweiss and spends the majority of his time as CEO of Reforge, a professional education program for experienced practitioners. We've had some of our teammates here at Product Hunt go through the program. Prior to Reforge, Brian was the VP of Growth at HubSpot, EIR at Trinity Ventures, and the founder of several startups including Boundless Learning, POPSignal, and Viximo.
In this episode we talk about:
What kinds of questions Lee and Brian ask founders when they first meet them
Some of the mistakes that first-time fund managers make and how to avoid them
How to think about fund strategy and why the style of your fund should match your personality
The importance of cultivating resilience, both as a founder and as an investor
Of course, we talk about some of their favorite products as well.
We’ll be back next week so be sure to subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify, Breaker, Overcast, or wherever you listen to your favorite podcasts. Big thanks to Bubble, Spoka, and Dipsea for their support. 😸
Quotes from This Episode
“Investing is actually a very time consuming thing. For any operators out there who are also thinking about investing, I would highly encourage you to consider finding a partner who has a completely opposite superpower than you.” — Brian
“The key is figuring out who you are, what your investor-strategy fit is, and designing a strategy and a way that you’re going to get deal flow and what the right check size is going to be, based on who you are uniquely.” — Lee
“There are some investors out there who are very thesis-driven and others that are very people-driven. The more I do this, the more I realize that we are not the best at forming and finding the most interesting ideas and markets. With so much interesting stuff going on, I’m not going to sit here and pretend I know how it is going to play out. The entrepreneurs and people who have an organic connection are going to be the ones to find the interesting problems.” — Brian
Companies and Products Mentioned in This Episode
Dandelion Chocolate — A bean-to-bar chocolate factory in the Mission District in San Francisco.
Five Minute Journal — The simplest, most effective way to be happier every day.
Krisp — Mute background noise during calls.
TweetDeck — Create a custom Twitter experience.
Twttr — Twitter's new prototype app.
YouTube TV— YouTube takes on the cable providers.