Why half of product managers are in trouble | Nikhyl Singhal (Meta, Google)
Nikhyl Singhal is the founder of The Skip, a community for senior product leaders; a former product exec at Meta, Google, and Credit Karma; and a many-time founder. He’s also one of the most honest, unfiltered voices on what’s actually happening in product management right now.
In our in-depth conversation, we discuss:
1. Why the next two years will be the most chaotic period in product management history
2. Why half of current product managers are at risk, and what separates those who’ll do well
3. Why you need to find your “moments of joy” with AI
4. The “smiling exhaustion” he’s seeing across the product community
5. The psychological barriers that prevent people from reinventing themselves
6. Why your resume’s fancy logos matter less than ever, and what matters now
7. His prediction that companies will shed 30,000 people and rehire 8,000—all AI-first
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Episode transcript: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/why-half-of-product-managers-are-in-trouble
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Archive of all Lenny's Podcast transcripts: https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fo/yxi4s2w998p1gvtpu4193/AMdNPR8AOw0lMklwtnC0TrQ?rlkey=j06x0nipoti519e0xgm23zsn9&st=ahz0fj11&dl=0
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Where to find Nikhyl Singhal:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nikhyl
• X: https://x.com/nikhyl
• Podcast & Newsletter: https://skip.show
• Skip Community: https://skip.community
• Skip Coach: https://skip.coach
• Skip.help: https://skip.help
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Where to find Lenny:
• Newsletter: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com
• X: https://twitter.com/lennysan
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lennyrachitsky/
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In this episode, we cover:
(00:00) Introduction to Nikhyl Singhal
(02:25) The big picture: what’s changing for product managers
(10:00) Are product leaders doing better than 2-3 years ago?
(11:44) What will change in the next couple of years
(14:23) How companies are changing the way they build products
(15:51) What “judgment” really means for PMs
(17:46) Why there won’t be any more bad software
(20:25) The skills you need to be effective today
(23:31) Why there are more PM roles than ever
(24:27) The builder versus information-mover divide
(30:14) The non-builder problem
(30:53) Should PMs code?
(34:15) Why experienced leaders still matter
(35:44) The diversity setback nobody’s talking about
(37:21) Why your brand doesn’t matter as much anymore
(39:54) How valued skills are flipping upside down
(40:49) Why change is so hard for humans
(43:53) The “equal disappointment” algorithm
(46:39) You must cross the threshold
(48:37) This chaos will settle
(53:19) Finding your moment of joy
(58:50) Nikhyl’s AI stack and what he’s building
(1:00:53) The obsolescence mindset
(1:05:24) Specific advice for PMs right now
(1:08:58) The four jobs that will exist in the future
(1:11:59) Why alignment is changing (but not disappearing)
(1:15:40) How engineering is changing even more than PM
(1:17:04) The surprising design plateau
(1:18:49) Finding optimism in the chaos
(1:21:12) Lightning round
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Referenced:
• Building a long and meaningful career | Nikhyl Singhal (Meta, Google): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/building-a-long-and-meaningful-career
• COBOL: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COBOL
• United Airlines: https://www.united.com
• State of the product job market in early 2026: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/state-of-the-product-job-market-in-ee9
• Head of Growth (Anthropic): “Claude is growing itself at this point” | Amol Avasare: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/anthropics-1b-to-19b-growth-run
• Demis Hassabis on X: https://x.com/demishassabis
• Sam Altman on X: https://x.com/sama
• Dario Amodei on X: https://x.com/DarioAmodei
• Cross on Prime Video: https://www.amazon.com/Cross-Season-1/dp/B0D6X7ZZHC
• Jack Ryan on Prime Video: https://www.amazon.com/Tom-Clancys-Jack-Ryan/dp/B0CNDCMN8R
• 24 on Prime Video: https://www.amazon.com/24-Season-1/dp/B000HPF85A
• Claude Code: https://code.claude.com
• Codex: https://chatgpt.com/codex
• Lovable: https://lovable.dev
• Sonos: https://www.sonos.com
• “There are only four jobs” on X: https://x.com/yrechtman/status/2039012253341495462
• Paradise on Hulu: https://www.hulu.com/series/paradise-2b4b8988-50c9-4097-bf93-bc34a99a5b4f
• Lioness on Paramount+: https://www.paramountplus.com/shows/lioness
• Tesla: https://www.tesla.com
• Albert Einstein’s quote: https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/115696-genius-is-1-talent-and-99-percent-hard-work
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Recommended books:
• James: https://www.amazon.com/James-Novel-Percival-Everett/dp/0385550367
• The Adventures of Huckleberry Finn: https://www.amazon.com/Adventures-Huckleberry-Finn-Unabridged-Uncensored/dp/195483943X
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Production and marketing by https://penname.co/. For inquiries about sponsoring the podcast, email podcast@lennyrachitsky.com.
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Lenny may be an investor in the companies discussed.
To hear more, visit www.lennysnewsletter.com
Hard Fork Live, Part 2: Patrick Collison of Stripe + Kathryn Zealand of Skip + Listener Questions
We’re back with part two of Hard Fork Live (see last week’s episode for part one). This week, Patrick Collison, Stripe’s chief executive, joins us onstage for a wide-ranging conversation about how Silicon Valley could unleash greater progress, from building new housing to curing diseases, and why he believes prestige television is a waste of time. Then, after a quick costume change, Kathryn Zealand, the chief executive of Skip, joins us to talk about her company’s robot pants. We test them out live on a StairMaster. Finally, we end the show by taking questions from audience members.
Guests:
Patrick Collison, Co-founder and C.E.O. of Stripe
Kathryn Zealand, Founder and C.E.O. of Skip
We want to hear from you. Email us at hardfork@nytimes.com. Find “Hard Fork” on YouTube and TikTok.
Subscribe today at nytimes.com/podcasts or on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. You can also subscribe via your favorite podcast app here https://www.nytimes.com/activate-access/audio?source=podcatcher. For more podcasts and narrated articles, download The New York Times app at nytimes.com/app.
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Building a long and meaningful career | Nikhyl Singhal (Meta, Google)
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Nikhyl Singhal is VP of Product at Meta, overseeing teams building messaging, groups, stories, and the main Facebook feed. Before that, he served as the Chief Product Officer at Credit Karma and held various leadership roles at Google, leading teams on Google Photos and Google Hangouts. Nikhyl was also co-founder of three startups, including SayNow and Cast Iron Systems, which were acquired by Google and IBM, respectively. Alongside his successful career, he is passionate about coaching and mentoring, sharing his knowledge through the Skip podcast, newsletter and CPO community. In this episode, we discuss:
• Finding your North Star and building a long and meaningful career
• Why your superpower may actually be holding you back
• Wisdom for aspiring product managers in the early stages of their career
• Reasons you aren’t getting promoted, and advice on what to change
• How to avoid short-term thinking early in your career and how to become a better manager long-term
• Signs you work at an “ex-growth” company and that it’s time to leave
• Signs the IC path is a reasonable pursuit
• The importance of finding a community
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Find the transcript at: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/building-a-long-and-meaningful-career
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Where to find Nikhyl Singhal:
• Twitter: https://twitter.com/nikhyl
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nikhyl/
• Newsletter: https://theskip.substack.com/
• Podcast: https://www.skip.community/
• Skip CPO Community: https://www.linkedin.com/company/skip-community-for-cpos/
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Where to find Lenny:
• Newsletter: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com
• Twitter: https://twitter.com/lennysan
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lennyrachitsky/
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In this episode, we cover:
(00:00) Nikhyl’s background
(04:37) Nikhyl’s mentoring approach during critical periods of change
(07:07) The power of long-term career planning
(10:36) The value of gaining varied experiences rather than merely collecting logos on your resume
(12:52) The unique benefits of working at a “MAGMA” company
(14:50) Ex-growth companies and the impact of 0% interest rates
(20:19) Signs your company may be struggling to find the right product-market fit
(21:32) When you should stay at an ex-growth company
(22:34) Early career advice for product managers
(25:25) Mid-career strategies for promotion
(29:47) Summarizing the 4 reasons you may not be getting promoted
(30:15) The value of authentic feedback
(33:29) Tactical tips for getting better feedback
(34:46) Addressing management challenges in tech
(39:50) Opportunities for those who prefer the IC path
(45:25) How to become a better manager through community building
(47:40) Nikhyl’s community, The Skip
(51:27) Lenny’s Slack community
(52:54) Late-career advice and identifying skills that need reshaping
(57:07) Why it’s so important to listen to contradictory feedback
(59:45) Nikhyl’s “superpower” and “shadow”
(1:02:20) Mental health challenges and the third act of your career
(1:08:44) Examples of North Star metrics in the third act of your career
(1:12:20) Lightning round
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Referenced:
• Annie Pearl on Lenny’s Podcast: https://www.lennyspodcast.com/behind-the-scenes-of-calendlys-rapid-growth-annie-pearl-cpo/
• The Skip podcast episode about ex-growth companies: https://www.skip.community/should-i-join-or-leave-an-x-hypergrowth-company/
• Jules Walter on Lenny’s Podcast: https://www.lennyspodcast.com/leveraging-mentors-to-uplevel-your-career-jules-walter-youtube-slack/
• Skip Community for CPOs on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/skip-community-for-cpos/
• Crossing the Chasm: Marketing and Selling Disruptive Products to Mainstream Customers: https://www.amazon.com/Crossing-Chasm-3rd-Disruptive-Mainstream/dp/0062292986/
• Leadership and Self-Deception: Getting Out of the Box: https://www.amazon.com/Leadership-Self-Deception-Getting-Out-Box/dp/B07H3G1KCN
• Rise on Disney+: https://www.disneyplus.com/movies/rise/6Yv1uRnw2uAJ
• Arc browser: https://arc.net/
• Josh Miller (CEO of The Browser Company) on Lenny’s Podcast: https://www.lennyspodcast.com/competing-with-giants-an-inside-look-at-how-the-browser-company-builds-product-josh-miller-ceo/
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Production and marketing by https://penname.co/. For inquiries about sponsoring the podcast, email podcast@lennyrachitsky.com.
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Lenny may be an investor in the companies discussed.
This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.lennysnewsletter.com/subscribe
