Nate Silver Predicts: Democrats Take the House, Newsom Is Fading & AOC Might Win It All in 2028
(0:00) Nate Silver joins the pod!
(10:02) California's ballot counting problem: Raman's late-mail surge, ballot harvesting claims, and why the US counts slower than India
(25:18) Democrats' three-way civil war: The left, the abundance libs, and Newsom's "resistance lib" base
(34:48) The winning 2028 playbook: Anti-oligarch messaging, why young men want control, and immigrants fleeing the Dems
(45:48) How algorithmic social media entrenches polarization: Elon's X, filter bubbles, and the death of the chronological feed
(50:01) 2026 midterm predictions: 85-90% Dem House takeover, Senate toss-up, and the Iran/gas price wildcard
(55:20) Newsom is collapsing in polls: Nate's 2028 Dem bet is AOC
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How Will The 2024 Election Play Out? - Nate Silver - #846
Nate Silver is a statistician, writer of Silver Bulletin, and Founder of FiveThirtyEight.
No one truly knows who will win an election, but if anyone does, it's Nate. He is the man behind the most accurate, sophisticated polling data assessments in America and has an insight into modern culture like no one else.
Expect to learn why this election cycle differs from other ones, just how complex election prediction models are, what the most important topics of this election are, whether there is ever a chance for a 3rd party option to become president, the role of the media in determining who wins and much more…
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Timestamps:
(00:00) How Nate Mastered Sports Betting
(04:01) Models Used to Predict Elections
(08:03) The Way People Vote Today
(11:02) Why Kamala Harris Isn’t Appearing on Podcasts
(14:54) Do Debates Change People’s Minds?
(17:22) The Impact of Running Mates
(23:53) Have the Assassination Attempts Impacted the Election?
(30:16) The States That Decide the Election
(32:50) Likelihood of a Third-Party Candidate Being Elected
(37:39) The Power of ‘the Village & the River’
(44:48) Nate’s Experiences With Sam Bankman-Fried
(49:24) Why Crypto Investors Are More Likely to Be Scammed
(56:29) Psychology of High Risk-Takers
(01:01:54) The Price You Pay to Be Nate Silver
(01:04:30) Nate’s Core Values
(01:10:13) Where to Find Nate
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Episodes You Might Enjoy:
This Is How To Master Your Life - David Goggins - #577: lnkfi.re/SN-Goggins
How To Destroy Your Negative Beliefs - Dr Jordan Peterson - #712: lnkfi.re/SN-Peterson
The Secret Tools To Hack Your Brain - Dr Andrew Huberman - #700: lnkfi.re/SN-Huberman
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Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova on the Art of Election Betting
Political prediction markets — where traders can make bets on election outcomes — have been around for years. But in this cycle in particular, we've seen an explosion of interest, with people constantly checking the odds on sites like Polymarket and PredictIt to assess the state of the US presidential race. But how accurate are these markets? How do people make money on them? What do they tell us beyond what traditional polling or modeling already indicates? On this episode, we speak with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova, the co-hosts of the new podcast Risky Business. Silver is, of course, a famed election modeler, and both are serious poker players with good instincts for gambling and odds. We discuss how these markets work and what the markets and models are saying right now about the current US campaign.
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Smart vs. Stupid Risk Taking — with Nate Silver
Nate Silver, the founder of FiveThirtyEight and Substack writer of “Silver Bulletin,” joins Scott to discuss his latest book, “ON THE EDGE: The Art of Risking Everything.” We hear about the role of risk in shaping modern life, his background in election forecasting, and his thoughts on Kamala Harris’s VP pick. Follow Nate, @NateSilver538.
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Why Extreme Risk Takers Are Winning — With Nate Silver
Nate Silver is a statistician, election prognosticator, and bestselling author. He joins Big Technology Podcast to discuss his reporting on extreme risk takers, and why the seem to be winning. Tune in to hear Silver's theory on how society bifurcates into the risk-forward, probability oriented thinkers (The River) and the safety seeking, status oriented community (The Village). In this episode, we discuss poker, sports betting, effective altruism, VC, AI research, and existential threads to humankind. Tune in for a fascinating deep dive from one of The River's foremost instigators.
To buy Silver's book, On The Edge, check out his book page: https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/529280/on-the-edge-by-nate-silver/
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Nate Silver: SBF, The 2024 Election, & Prediction Markets
Nate Silver is a statistician, writer, and political analyst, widely recognized for his accurate predictions of U.S. presidential elections. He's now released an exceptional new book titled, "On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything." The book delves into the world of risk, game theory, cryptocurrency, artificial intelligence, and poker—fields where the stakes are high and the outcomes uncertain. One of the central themes of the book is crypto, which is why we were thrilled to have Nate join us.
Nate is not just a respected analyst; he's one of us—a fellow degen who shares our passion for the unpredictable and the frontier. But he's also much more. Nate is an avid poker player, a sharp sports bettor, an interviewer of Sam Bankman-Fried, an NFT enthusiast, and an advisor to Polymarket. In today’s episode, he offers keen insights into the brewing battle between the crypto world and its traditional incumbents.
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------ TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro 5:32 Nate is one of us 7:56 Nate’s POV on crypto 11:07 ‘The River’ 17:35 ‘The Village’ 19:15 Riverian & Villager conflict 25:38 Is the River better? 34:16 Sam Bankman-Fried 52:23 Sam Altman 59:13 Prediction markets & Polymarket 1:06:56 2024 election predictions 1:09:01 Riverian’s betting Trump? 1:10:50 How do we navigate this? 1:15:09 Advice for the crypto industry 1:16:38 Closing & Disclaimers
------ RESOURCES
Nate Silver https://x.com/NateSilver538
On the Edge https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/529280/on-the-edge-by-nate-silver/
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#AIS: FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver on how gamblers think
This talk was recorded LIVE at the All-In Summit in Miami and included slides. To watch on YouTube, check out our All-In Summit playlist: https://bit.ly/aisytplaylist
0:00 Nate Silver gives a presentation on how gamblers think
19:25 Bestie Q&A with Nate Silver: building probabilistic models, getting blamed for Trump winning in 2016, polarization reality, 2022 midterms
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