How to Trade Crypto Cycles with Raoul Pal
This week, Raoul Pal joins the show to discuss the current state of markets. As crypto & equities face their first significant sell off since the April lows, we deep dive into what's next for markets. Raoul discusses why he believes there's a wave of liquidity coming in 2026, how to trade crypto cycles, valuing crypto networks, has the DAT bubble burst, Raoul's AI thesis & more. Enjoy!
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(00:00) Intro
(01:25) Where Are We In The Macro Cycle?
(10:11) How To Value Crypto Networks?
(20:58) Ads (Zcash, Katana)
(22:14) The K-Shaped Economy
(25:31) Has The DAT Bubble Burst?
(28:24) Why Liquidity Drives Markets
(38:19) Ads (Zcash, Katana)
(39:35) How To Trade Crypto Cycles
(49:57) Ads (VanEck, Uniswap)
(51:39) Raoul's AI Thesis
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Empire is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Santiago, Jason, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
Bits + Bips: Bitcoin in Geopolitics, ETH’s Momentum, SOL ETFs & China’s Crypto Pivots? - Ep. 748
In this episode of Bits + Bips, hosts James Seyffart, Ram Ahluwalia, and Noelle Acheson are joined by Jamie Coutts to analyze Ethereum’s breakout and its improving fundamentals, how China’s “moderately loose” policy stance is changing the global liquidity landscape, and the pro-market implications of Paul Atkins leading the SEC.
They also explore Jerome Powell’s and Putin’s takes on Bitcoin, the controversial CBOE withdrawal of the Solana ETF filing, and the role of Bitcoin in geopolitics.
Show highlights:
How the employment data showed some mixed reactions in regard to next steps for the Fed
Whether China will start a new era of augmented liquidity
Why the U.S. dollar getting stronger is bad for crypto prices
How bitcoin is not a competitor to the U.S. dollar
The significance of David Sacks as Crypto & AI Czar
Why everyone believes that Atkins in the SEC is very positive for markets
Whether China will pivot and adopt friendlier crypto regulation
Putin’s remarks on the role of bitcoin
Why CBOE withdrew its SOL ETF filing
Jamie’s analysis on how liquidity affects prices and where we’ll see a top
Why Ram thinks that MSTR has peaked
Why Jamie believes that ETH will continue its momentum and perform better than the broader market
Why Microsoft and Amazon might adopt bitcoin on their balance sheet
Whether the breakthrough in quantum computing will disrupt Bitcoin
How Solana’s daily fees have grown to a significant percentage of the L1 landscape
Hosts:
James Seyffart, Research Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence
Ram Ahluwalia, CFA, CEO and Founder of Lumida
Noelle Acheson, Author of the “Crypto Is Macro Now” Newsletter
Guest:
Jamie Coutts, Chief Crypto Analyst at Real Vision
Links
China Rally:
China Politburo policy shift spurs surge in stocks, bonds | Reuters
China Eases Overall Monetary Policy Stance for First Time in 14 Years
Fed and Powell:
Decrypt: Fed Chair Jerome Powell Likens Bitcoin to Gold, Says It’s Not Dollar Rival
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:42 Mixed signals from employment data and the Fed’s next steps
07:33 China’s “moderately loose” policy and its liquidity impact
13:32 Why a stronger U.S. dollar spells trouble for crypto
23:49 Bitcoin’s role alongside the U.S. dollar, not against it
27:49 David Sacks as Crypto & AI Czar: What it means for the industry
29:40 Why Paul Atkins at the SEC is a win for markets
34:00 Whether China could adopt a pro-crypto stance
37:53 Putin’s surprising take on Bitcoin’s geopolitical role
41:39 What’s behind the SOL ETF filings
43:25 Jamie’s take on crypto’s potential upside
46:49 Why Ram believes MSTR may have peaked
49:59 Jamie’s bullish outlook on ETH outperforming the market
56:26 Could Microsoft and Amazon add Bitcoin to their balance sheets?
59:05 The quantum computing breakthrough
1:01:05 Solana’s fees climb significantly—what does it mean?
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How Global Liquidity Cycles Drive Crypto's $100T Target | Raoul Pal & Dan Tapiero
In this episode, Raoul Pal and Dan Tapiero explain how global liquidity cycles could propel crypto to a staggering $100 trillion market. They break down the "Everything Code" concept, explaining how broader economic trends are setting the stage for crypto's explosive growth. Pal and Tapiero unpack China's economic challenges, debate AI's impact on employment, and share their strategies for portfolio allocations. From Bitcoin's potential million-dollar valuation to the emergence of new layer-1 blockchains, you don't want to miss this one!
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Start your day with crypto news, analysis and data from Katherine Ross and David Canellis.
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Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/
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The 6th edition of Meridian, a web3 conference hosted by the Stellar Development Foundation is happening in London, England October 15-17, 2024.
Learn more and get your early-bird priced tickets now at meridian.stellar.org by using the code BLOCKWORKSPOD.
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They create custom, expert teams to support founders with transformative strategy work.
If you’re a founder or a VC looking for support for your teams, head on over to RenaudPartners.com or give their co-founder Geoff a follow on x at https://x.com/ReoffGenaud
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(02:16) Dan & Raoul Origin Story
(05:21) The Global Macro Liquidity Cycle
(15:14) Who Drives the Cycle?
(20:14) Do US Presidents Impact Cycles?
(23:46) Why We are Not in a Recession
(28:28) Best Portfolio Today
(34:39) Stellar Ad
(35:29) Invisible North Ad
(36:24) MyPrize
(37:00) Harpie Ad
(38:15) Trading Cycles
(48:21) Pitch for LPs
(01:01:04) 12-Month Predictions
(01:04:44) Election Impact
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Empire is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Santiago, Jason, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
Your Guide to the Bull Run | Raoul Pal
✨ DEBRIEF | Ryan & David unpacking the episode: https://www.bankless.com/debrief-the-raoul-pal-interview
------ Bankless Nation, we’re having none-other than Raoul Pal, a frequent guest on this show, who needs no introduction.
Expect to understand debasement, how to navigate the different crypto seasons, and Raoul’s secular thesis. Besides his key learnings, Raoul also gives a peak into his portfolio and shares some hot takes on the current state of AI.
------ 📣 SPOTIFY PREMIUM RSS FEED | USE CODE: SPOTIFY24 https://bankless.cc/spotify-premium
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------ TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro 6:35 SEC Suing Uniswap? 9:57 US Regulation Handbrakes 19:48 State of the Bull Market 29:45 Navigating Interest Rates 35:40 Understanding Debasement 47:25 Crypto Adoption 57:11 Crypto Summer 1:03:12 The L1 Race 1:07:17 The Role of ETFs 1:13:37 The Next Winter 1:17:52 Crypto Skeptics 1:22:15 The Secular Thesis 1:26:20 Raoul’s Portfolio 1:30:47 Real Vision 1:33:01 The State of AI 1:36:31 Closing & Disclaimers
------ RESOURCES
Raoul Pal https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI
Real Vision Festival of Learning https://www.realvision.com/festival-of-learning
Raoul Pal The Journey Man https://www.youtube.com/@RaoulPalTJM
------ Not financial or tax advice. This channel is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. This video is not tax advice. Talk to your accountant. Do your own research.
Disclosure. From time-to-time I may add links in this newsletter to products I use. I may receive commission if you make a purchase through one of these links. Additionally, the Bankless writers hold crypto assets.
See our investment disclosures here: https://www.bankless.com/disclosures
Market Forecaster Raoul Pal Says There’s a Good Chance Bitcoin Will Hit $100K-$200K in 2024 - Ep. 580
Unchained is running its annual survey to better serve you.
Please answer our annual survey here.
The likely impending approval of spot bitcoin ETFs has already sparked a major rally in the price of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, but will the bull run continue once the funds are up and running? On this episode of Unchained, the founder and CEO of Global Macro Investor, Raoul Pal, describes why a spot bitcoin ETF is such a significant development, likening it to a free trade agreement with the traditional financial world. He also discusses what effect a spot Ether ETF is likely to have on Ether prices, the relative merits of Ether vs. Solana, the usefulness of BRC-20 tokens and why 2024 is likely to be a very good year for crypto and the economy as a whole.
Listen to the episode on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Overcast, Podcast Addict, Pocket Casts, Pandora, Castbox, Google Podcasts, Amazon Music, or on your favorite podcast platform.
Show highlights:
How Pal sees crypto as creating a new parallel financial system that a spot Bitcoin ETF will soon offer entrée to
what he believes will be the key catalysts for the upcoming bull market in crypto
why Raoul is predicting a "very strong 2024" for the crypto market, including his outlook for the price of Bitcoin
how he thinks investors and institutions will respond to the potential launch of an ETH spot ETF
why Raoul is bullish on both Ethereum and Solana
what developments in the Solana ecosystem are making Raoul particularly optimistic
which network Raoul expects to emerge as the winner in the blockchain space
why he views BRC-20s and Ordinals inscriptions as positive developments for Bitcoin
Thank you to our sponsors!
Arbitrum Foundation
Phemex
Popcorn Network
Guest
Raoul Pal, cofounder and CEO of Real Vision
Links
Bitcoin ETF and markets:
Unchained:
Bitcoin Surges Past $40,000 for First Time Since April 2022
Signs Increasingly Point to January Approval of Spot Bitcoin ETF Applications
77% of Financial Advisors Are Waiting for a Spot Bitcoin ETF to Offer Their Clients
How Much Money Will Flow Into Bitcoin ETFs? Here’s One Projection
Why a Spot Bitcoin ETF Will Probably Launch No Later Than January 10
Why It Looks Like BlackRock Could Win America’s First Spot Bitcoin ETF
The Chopping Block: Are We Back? The ‘Low IQ’ Response to the Potential Spot Bitcoin ETF
Learn more: Bitcoin ETFs Explained: What Are They & How Do They Work?
Ordinals and BRC-20s
Unchained:
Bitcoin Ordinals-Related Token ORDI Passes $1 Billion in Market Value
Bitcoin Mempool Reaches Record Levels of Congestion
Bitcoin Ordinal NFTs Are Hot and Getting Hotter. What's the Hype About?
Bitcoin’s BRC-20 Mania: Is It Sustainable?
Why All 10,000 OnChainMonkey NFTs Will Move From Ethereum to Bitcoin
Learn more:
What Are BRC-20 Tokens?
What Are ORC-20 Tokens?
How to Create a Bitcoin Ordinal
Solana vs. ETH
Unchained: Anatoly Yakovenko on Solana’s Astounding Recovery and Its Future Plans
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179 - The Bankless Origin Story - Raoul Pal
The tables are turned as Raoul Pal interviews David and Ryan on all things Bankless. They share respective origin stories of how they got into crypto, meeting each other for the first time, how Bankless got started and where the future frontiers of Bankless are headed. ------ ✨ DEBRIEF | Unpacking the episode: https://www.bankless.com/debrief-raoul-pal
------ 🚀 Unlock $3,000+ in Perks with Bankless Citizenship 🚀
https://bankless.cc/GetThePerks
------ BANKLESS SPONSOR TOOLS:
🐙KRAKEN | MOST-TRUSTED CRYPTO EXCHANGE https://k.xyz/bankless-pod-q2 🦊METAMASK LEARN | HELPFUL WEB3 RESOURCE https://bankless.cc/MetaMask 🗣️TOKU | CRYPTO EMPLOYMENT SOLUTION https://bankless.cc/Toku ⚖️ ARBITRUM | SCALING ETHEREUM https://bankless.cc/Arbitrum 🦄UNISWAP | ON-CHAIN MARKETPLACE https://bankless.cc/uniswap 🛞MANTLE | MODULAR LAYER 2 NETWORK https://bankless.cc/Mantle
------ TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro 5:50 David's Crypto Journey 11:04 Ryan's Crypto Journey 19:12 David's 2017 Story 22:11 Conviction Through The Bear Market 28:00 Bankless Origin Story 32:53 Vision For Bankless 39:23 From DeFi to Web3 48:44 Tribalism 54:56 A Helpful Mental Model 1:01:39 Dealing With Hate 1:08:38 Bankless Ventures
------ RESOURCES
Raoul Pal https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI
Real Vision https://www.realvision.com/
Real Vision Newsletter https://www.realvision.com/dailybriefing
------ RELATED EPISODES:
118 - Raoul Pal | Should We Be Scared Right Now? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nzGMSKbqjco
------ Not financial or tax advice. This channel is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. This video is not tax advice. Talk to your accountant. Do your own research.
Disclosure. From time-to-time I may add links in this newsletter to products I use. I may receive commission if you make a purchase through one of these links. Additionally, the Bankless writers hold crypto assets. See our investment disclosures here: https://www.bankless.com/disclosures
178 - Is Crypto's Bear Market Almost Over? with Raoul Pal
Are we entering Crypto’s Spring? Raoul Pal is the Co-Founder and CEO of Real Vision, a financial media and education platform focused on Macro, Investing, and Crypto.
In today’s episode, we cover:1) The Aftermath of the 2022 Meltdown.2) How to Invest in the face of the current liquidity and external Indicators. 3) Why Raoul thinks we’re headed toward Deflation, not Inflation. 4) What AI will bring to the table, and how it intersects with Crypto 5) Why the Crypto Winter is probably over.
------ ✨ DEBRIEF | Unpacking the episode: https://www.bankless.com/debrief-raoul-pal
------ 🚀 Unlock $3,000+ in Perks with Bankless Citizenship 🚀 https://bankless.cc/GetThePerks
------ BANKLESS SPONSOR TOOLS:
🐙KRAKEN | MOST-TRUSTED CRYPTO EXCHANGE https://k.xyz/bankless-pod-q2
🦊METAMASK LEARN | HELPFUL WEB3 RESOURCE https://bankless.cc/MetaMask
🗣️TOKU | CRYPTO EMPLOYMENT SOLUTION https://bankless.cc/Toku
⚖️ ARBITRUM | SCALING ETHEREUM https://bankless.cc/Arbitrum
🦄UNISWAP | ON-CHAIN MARKETPLACE https://bankless.cc/uniswap
🛞MANTLE | MODULAR LAYER 2 NETWORK https://bankless.cc/Mantle
------ TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro 7:20 The 2022 Meltdown 22:14 The Aftermath 27:26 Liquidity Indicators 34:51 External Indicators 37:54 Raoul’s Deflation Thesis 50:29 The State of AI 56:19 How Crypto & AI Intersect 1:00:43 The Implications of AI 1:08:14 Crypto’s Inflection Moment 1:11:43 Investing in the Current Climate 1:19:00 Raoul’s Portfolio 1:20:39 Crypto’s North Star 1:28:49 The Everything Code 1:35:26 Closing & Disclaimers
------ RESOURCES Raoul Palhttps://twitter.com/RaoulGMI
Real Vision https://www.realvision.com/
Real Vision Newsletter https://www.realvision.com/dailybriefing
The Everything Code https://www.realvision.com/issues/the-everything-code-part-1-the-renaissance
------ RELATED EPISODES:
118 - Raoul Pal | Should We Be Scared Right Now? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nzGMSKbqjco
------ Not financial or tax advice. This channel is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. This video is not tax advice. Talk to your accountant. Do your own research.
Disclosure. From time-to-time I may add links in this newsletter to products I use. I may receive commission if you make a purchase through one of these links. Additionally, the Bankless writers hold crypto assets. See our investment disclosures here: https://www.bankless.com/disclosures
Raoul Pal: AI is the Most Disinflationary Force in Our Lifetimes
On this episode of The AI Breakdown, NLW is joined by Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal to discuss AI as a disinflationary force, how big companies are reacting to AI, AI safety and more.
This is an excerpt from a conversation that first appeared on The Breakdown on Tuesday April 25, 2023.
Subscribe to The AI Breakdown on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TheAIBreakdown
The AI Breakdown newsletter: https://theaibreakdown.beehiiv.com/
Ethereum will define web3's 'benchmark interest rate' post-merge, according to Raoul Paul
Last time Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal came on The Scoop podcast back in 2020, the investment strategist cautioned that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy was simply “papering up the cracks” in the economic crunch caused by Covid-19.
Over two years later, Pal’s predictions seem to have come true, as the global economy struggles to keep pace with rampant inflation, which reached a 40-year high of 9.1% in the US in June.
Although the crypto markets have been hit especially hard in recent months, Pal feels “that the forced selling participants are out of the market,” adding that “we’re definitely close to the low.”
In this episode of The Scoop, Pal forecasts where he believes the economy is headed in the coming months, and shares why Ethereum’s upcoming merge could represent a defining moment for the web3 industry.
After Ethereum’s merge to a proof-of-stake consensus mechanism, users who "stake" ether to secure the network will earn yield in ether — something Pal thinks will have a standardizing effect on the inflation rate of protocols around the industry:
“We are going to end up creating a benchmark web3 interest rate of which we can assess other risks against, so that makes risk management slightly more transparent.”
For example, Pal hypothesizes that if Ethereum offered 4.8% yield after its upcoming merge, then 4.8% would become the benchmark yield for other crypto projects as well. Furthermore, the risk from investing in protocols offering yields higher than Ethereum’s could be assessed relative to Ethereum's hypothetical risk-free 4.8% yield.
In addition to creating a benchmark yield for the industry, Pal thinks the decrease in the Ethereum blockchain’s energy consumption after the merge could result in it becoming an institutional favorite compared to the more energy-intensive, proof-of-work consensus mechanism used by the Bitcoin blockchain. As Pal explains:
“To have a benchmark yield in the second largest cryptocurrency, when everybody wants to allocate over time to web3 as a theme, that is not counter to the 'FUD' of the ESG narrative that Bitcoin has to battle with — it becomes incredibly attractive for institutions to allocate.”
Additionally, Pal claims he has personally been adding the most crypto to his portfolio since November of 2020, stating “the risk-reward is now becoming super ludicrous, so it dwarfs anything else.”
Episode 66 of Season 4 of The Scoop was recorded remotely with The Block's Frank Chaparro and Raoul Pal, Co-Founder and CEO of Real Vision.
Listen below, and subscribe to The Scoop on Apple, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher or wherever you listen to podcasts. Email feedback and revision requests to podcast@theblockcrypto.com.
This episode is brought to you by our sponsors Chainalysis & IWC Schaffhausen
About Chainalysis
Chainalysis is the leading blockchain data platform. We provide data, software, services, and research to government agencies, exchanges, financial institutions, and insurance and cybersecurity companies in over 60 countries. Backed by Accel, Addition, Benchmark, Coatue, Paradigm, Ribbit, and other leading firms in venture capital, Chainalysis builds trust in blockchains to promote more financial freedom with less risk. For more information, visit www.chainalysis.com.
About IWC Schaffhausen
IWC Schaffhausen is a Swiss luxury watch manufacturer based in Schaffhausen, Switzerland. Known for its unique engineering approach to watchmaking, IWC combines the best of human craftsmanship and creativity with cutting-edge technology and processes. With collections like the Portugieser and the Pilot’s Watches, the brand covers the whole spectrum from elegant timepieces to sports watches. For more information, visit IWC.com
118 - Raoul Pal | Should We Be Scared Right Now?
The current outlook in the markets is... shaky at best.
War in Europe. Inflation and political instability in the USA. On top of that, Terra (UST) began its historic plummet—right in the middle of recording this episode.
Raoul Pal of RealVision returns to Bankless to synthesize the widespread chaos in the markets, and helps us figure out how to position ourselves for these wild times.
------ 📣 ALCHEMIX | Get a Loan that Repays Itself! https://bankless.cc/Alchemix
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------ BANKLESS SPONSOR TOOLS:
⚖️ ARBITRUM | SCALED ETHEREUM https://bankless.cc/Arbitrum
❎ ACROSS | BRIDGE TO LAYER 2 https://bankless.cc/Across
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------ Topics Covered:
0:00 Intro 6:30 Not Looking Good Out There 14:00 What Goes Up… 19:49 The Macro Fundamentals 25:09 The Debt Bubble 31:29 Tech Stocks 37:30 No Safety Net 42:34 Global Concerns 47:45 UST Collapses 52:30 A Massive Meltdown 55:15 Regulation 59:30 Maturing Crypto Markets 1:05:45 What can save us? 1:12:38 More Stimulus Checks? 1:19:22 Hedging Against Inflation 1:22:00 Raoul’s Portfolio 1:26:10 Culture as an Asset Class 1:28:53 Advice for First-Timers 1:31:40 Should We Be Scared?
------ Resources:
Raoul Pal: https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI?s=20&t=fcZpeyDaMB3GKo8aC1i4Gw
RealVision: https://www.realvision.com/
----- Not financial or tax advice. This channel is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. This video is not tax advice. Talk to your accountant. Do your own research.
Disclosure. From time-to-time I may add links in this newsletter to products I use. I may receive commission if you make a purchase through one of these links. Additionally, the Bankless writers hold crypto assets. See our investment disclosures here: https://newsletter.banklesshq.com/p/bankless-disclosures
How Raoul Pal 10X-ed His Money with Crypto and Retired to the Beach
Shaan Puri (@ShaanVP) sits down with Raoul Pal (@RaoulGMI) to talk about his career, how he 10X-ed his money with crypto, why NFTs are a bubble, winning the game of life, and more.
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* Do you love MFM and want to see Sam and Shaan's smiling faces? Subscribe to our Youtube channel.
* Want more insights like MFM? Check out Shaan's newsletter.
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Show Notes:
(00:35) - Why Raoul lives in the Cayman Islands
(07:30) - Winning at the game of life
(16:15) - How Raoul got into crypto
(30:10) - Why NFTs are a bubble
(43:15) - How crypto could revolutionize the music industry
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Links:
* https://www.realvision.com/crypto
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Past guests on My First Million include Rob Dyrdek, Hasan Minhaj, Balaji Srinivasan, Jake Paul, Dr. Andrew Huberman, Gary Vee, Lance Armstrong, Sophia Amoruso, Ariel Helwani, Ramit Sethi, Stanley Druckenmiller, Peter Diamandis, Dharmesh Shah, Brian Halligan, Marc Lore, Jason Calacanis, Andrew Wilkinson, Julian Shapiro, Kat Cole, Codie Sanchez, Nader Al-Naji, Steph Smith, Trung Phan, Nick Huber, Anthony Pompliano, Ben Askren, Ramon Van Meer, Brianne Kimmel, Andrew Gazdecki, Scott Belsky, Moiz Ali, Dan Held, Elaine Zelby, Michael Saylor, Ryan Begelman, Jack Butcher, Reed Duchscher, Tai Lopez, Harley Finkelstein, Alexa von Tobel, Noah Kagan, Nick Bare, Greg Isenberg, James Altucher, Randy Hetrick and more.
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Additional episodes you might enjoy:
• #224 Rob Dyrdek - How Tracking Every Second of His Life Took Rob Drydek from 0 to $405M in Exits
• #209 Gary Vaynerchuk - Why NFTS Are the Future
• #178 Balaji Srinivasan - Balaji on How to Fix the Media, Cloud Cities & Crypto
#169 - How One Man Started 5, Billion Dollar Companies, Dan Gilbert's Empire, & Talking With Warren Buffett
• #218 - Why You Should Take a Think Week Like Bill Gates
• Dave Portnoy vs The World, Extreme Body Monitoring, The Future of Apparel Retail, "How Much is Anthony Pompliano Worth?", and More
• How Mr Beast Got 100M Views in Less Than 4 Days, The $25M Chrome Extension, and More
80 - Ethereum is the Greatest Trade | Raoul Pal
Raoul Pal is the CEO and co-founder of Real Vision, the content production studio focused on democratizing access to financial knowledge. He’s an investor with a sharp eye on the global macro environment, and has a strong grasp on the relationship between history and economics.
What has changed since the last time Raoul was on the podcast? His takes on Ethereum are fascinating and thought-provoking, and his bullishness does not come lightly.
------ 🚀 SUBSCRIBE TO NEWSLETTER: https://newsletter.banklesshq.com/ 🎙️ SUBSCRIBE TO PODCAST: http://podcast.banklesshq.com/ 🎖 CLAIM YOUR BADGE: https://newsletter.banklesshq.com/p/-guide-2-using-the-bankless-badge ------ BANKLESS SPONSOR TOOLS:
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Topics Covered:
0:00 Intro 5:00 Raoul Pal 7:31 The Macro World 11:48 Inflation 18:33 The Macro Crypto Story 31:43 Network Effects and Adoption 40:25 The Greatest Trade 46:25 Communities and Killers 52:50 The Ethereum Layer Zero 1:00:00 Raoul’s Allocation 1:03:27 NFT Mania & Culture 1:14:56 What’s the Metaverse? 1:22:07 Regulation, Social Tokens, Projects 1:25:43 Cyclical Markets, Predictions 1:28:41 Hope in a Rocky Decade 1:33:45 Closing & Disclaimers
------ Resources:
Real Vision https://www.realvision.com/ Raoul on Twitter https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI?s=20 The World Is Waking Up To Crypto https://newsletter.banklesshq.com/p/the-world-is-waking-up-to-crypto
----- Not financial or tax advice. This channel is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. This video is not tax advice. Talk to your accountant. Do your own research.
Disclosure. From time-to-time I may add links in this newsletter to products I use. I may receive commission if you make a purchase through one of these links. Additionally, the Bankless writers hold crypto assets. See our investment disclosures here: https://newsletter.banklesshq.com/p/bankless-disclosures
“The Biggest, Clearest Bet of All is Ethereum:" Raoul Pal
In this week’s episode I interview Raoul Pal, who retired from the hedge fund world at 36 years old and has run financial media company Real Vision for the seven years since. He predicted the housing bubble, he was early to call the devastating effect the pandemic would have on the economy, and now he gives us his thoughts on what he sees is coming up in the next few months. Raoul believes the second half of 2021 will be worse than expected, but that the decline will be short-lived thanks to even more stimulus to be added to the global economy. This will cause risk assets to continue their climb, including crypto. And for that he’s well-positioned: he says 100% of his liquid net worth is in cryptocurrencies but if he had to own just one asset over the next 12 months, that would be ETH.
Big thanks to our sponsors:
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Crypto, NFTs, and Blockchain ft. Raoul Pal
We’re mixing it up today and busting right into our interview with Raoul Pal, the co-founder and CEO of Real Vision Group and Global Macro Investor. Raoul breaks down everything from why the digital asset space is disrupting everything — including higher education, the future of blockchain, and how Bitcoin could actually be a catalyst in the push towards clean energy. Follow Raoul on Twitter, @RaoulGMI.
Raoul's book reference: The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy - What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America's Next Rendezvous with Destiny by Neil Howe and William Strauss.
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Lyn Alden and Raoul Pal: Is Ethereum a Good Investment? - Ep.211
Lyn Alden, CEO and founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategies, and Raoul Pal, CEO & cofounder of Real Vision Group & Global Macro Investor, explain their thinking about Ethereum and its native token, and talk about their perspective on GameStop. In this episode, we discuss:
why Raoul views ether as similar to bitcoin at a macro level (1:25)
why Lyn decided ETH was not currently investable (5:06)
an analysis of utility protocols (John Pfeffer’s paper) (6:55)
counterarguments to John Pfeffer’s paper (9:31)
how to allocate between BTC and ETH (11:22)
why Raoul also invested in other coins beyond BTC and ETH (11:47)
whether Metcalfe's law applies equally to all kinds of networks (13:35)
why Lyn views Ethereum’s use case as circular, and why that makes it less investable (15:09)
whether Ethereum 2.0 and Ethereum Improvement Proposal 1559, and whether that could make ETH more investable (21:20)
the impact of fees on the value of Ethereum (23:36)
Raoul's views on what S-Curves and the Lindy Effect indicate about the development of a currency (25:22)
how high fees make DApps less attractive, while low fees potentially decrease demand for ETH (27:06)
how Lyn believes demand for DeFi is to circumvent compliance and know-your-customer processes, and she doesn't also see that as a downside for Bitcoin (33:10)
how the regulators are behind innovation in cryptocurrencies, particularly around taxation (36:32)
Raoul's and Lyn's predictions for the ETH price by end of 2021 (41:45)
what GameStop says about the democratization of financial information (45:32)
whether smart contracts could play in preventing situations similar to what happened with GameStop and/or Robinhood (49:03)
how blockchain technology could be used to prevent a situation in which the hedge funds could short more shares than existed (54:03)
how the GameStop/Robinhood saga is a giant advertisement for self-custody (54:53)
whether r/WallStreetBets' behavior was market manipulation or not (56:53)
Thank you to our sponsor!
Crypto.com: http://crypto.com
Episode links:
Lyn Alden: https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact
Lyn Alden Investment: https://www.lynalden.com/
Raoul Pal: https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI
Real Vision: https://www.realvision.com/contributor/raoul-pal
Global Macro Investor: https://www.globalmacroinvestor.com
Raoul's tweet storm on Ethereum: https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI/status/1347013567799848961?s=20
Lyn Alden’s research paper on Ethereum: https://www.lynalden.com/ethereum-analysis/
Raoul Pal’s tweet: ETH equals BTC: https://twitter.com/raoulgmi/status/1347013567799848961?lang=en
John Pfeffer’s paper: https://s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/john-pfeffer/An+Investor's+Take+on+Cryptoassets+v6.pdf
Network effects and Metcalfe’s Law: https://saylordotorg.github.io/text_developing-new-products-and-services/s04-12-there-is-power-in-numbers-netw.html
Quantity Theory of Money: https://saylordotorg.github.io/text_economics-theory-through-applications/s30-01-the-quantity-theory-of-money.html
How Will the Government React to GameStop?: https://www.coindesk.com/gamestop-regulators-response
GameStop and Crypto trading: https://cryptonews.com/exclusives/are-gamestop-style-surges-in-crypto-any-different-from-old-p-9151.htm
Robinhood Raises Extra funds: https://www.theblockcrypto.com/linked/93258/report-robinhood-billions-raised-investors-1
Possible role of blockchain in trading: https://cointelegraph.com/news/cardano-foundation-ceo-says-blockchain-could-prevent-gme-type-showdowns
Caitlin Long: https://www.forbes.com/sites/caitlinlong/2019/05/16/naked-shorting-in-the-uber-ipo-it-couldnt-happen-on-a-blockchain/?sh=f2a0dcd4737d
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38 - The World is Waking Up to Crypto | Raoul Pal
🚀 SUBSCRIBE TO NEWSLETTER: http://bankless.substack.com/ ✊ STARTING GUIDE BANKLESS: https://bit.ly/37Q17uI ❤️ JOIN PRIVATE DISCORD: https://bit.ly/2UVI10O 🎙️ SUBSCRIBE TO PODCAST: http://podcast.banklesshq.com/ 👕 BUY BANKLESS TEE: https://merch.banklesshq.com/
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The World is Waking Up to Crypto | Raoul Pal
Raoul Pal is the CEO and co-founder of Real Vision, which is a content production studio focused on democratizing access to financial knowledge. He is an investor with a sharp eye on the global macro environment, and has a strong grasp on the relationship between history and economics.
Raoul is famous for being 'irresponsibly long' on Bitcoin, and has expressed similar favourable attitudes towards Ethereum and DeFi.
We start the episode asking about the role that Bitcoin fills in the current financial crises.
What about the current state of the world makes Raoul bullish on Bitcoin? Why does the world need it? Why now?
- What are the factors that are influencing the incentives behind central governments printing money?
Raoul is generally of the opinion that the money printer is going to be forced to turn on
- Why forced?
- How does the looming retirement crisis impact the valuation of Bitcoin?
- Does Raoul think about how the U.S. might become really jealous of people taking their newly printing money and buying Bitcoin with it?
Then, we turn the conversation to Ethereum, and Ether, as well as the Bankless thesis!
Tune in!
MORE CONTENT:
Real Vision: https://www.realvision.com/
Retirement crisis video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5OFaZcC0lRU&t=1611s
Reinventing the money system with Ethereum: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0cZtrX2EHtw
Bitcoin is a life raft: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qL2LfVRl3J0
------
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Subscribe to the Bankless newsletter program http://bankless.substack.com/
Visit the official Bankless website for resources http://banklesshq.com/
Follow Bankless on Twitter https://twitter.com/BanklessHQ
Follow Ryan on Twitter https://twitter.com/ryansadams
Follow David on Twitter https://twitter.com/TrustlessState
Follow DeFi Dad on Twitter https://twitter.com/DeFi_Dad
-----
Not financial or tax advice. This channel is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. This video is not tax advice. Talk to your accountant. Do your own research. Disclosure. From time-to-time we may add links in this channel to products we use. We may receive commission if you make a purchase through one of these links. We'll always disclose when this is the case.
Why Bitcoin Now: Mike Novogratz and Raoul Pal on 'the Single Greatest Brand' of the Last 10 Years - Ep.179
This episode is the first in a series, Why Bitcoin Now, that takes a deeper dive into Bitcoin and the history of money in the macroeconomic environment of the coronavirus. Mike Novogratz, founder, CEO and chairman of Galaxy Digital, and Raoul Pal, founder and CEO of Global Macro Investor and Real Vision Group, tell us where they think Bitcoin is going amidst this macro uncertainty and the global crisis due to the coronavirus. We discuss:
why Bitcoin’s price hasn't risen in price due to the global turmoil, and instead fell with the rest of the market on Black Thursday
why quantitative easing is the catalyst for institutional investors to turn to Bitcoin, but why that takes time, and why registered investment advisors may be on the cusp
why they think retail investors will continue to buy Bitcoin despite record unemployment
why Bitcoin will benefit from social unrest
why any particular country's success in dealing with the coronavirus won’t really lessen the economic impact there
whether China's first-mover advantage with the DCEP and its comprehensive enterprise blockchain initiatives will undermine the global dominance of the US dollar
why they believe there will ultimately be a dollar-based stablecoin
why they believe Libra will be a strong player in the future of stablecoins
how election outcomes, and in particular a potential movement to break up Big Tech, could affect Bitcoin and the vision for Web3
whether Ethereum, and staking, will see more adoption from institutional investors
why they believe yield farming is ultimately not sustainable, but still profitable
the impact the Bitcoin halving will have in this macroeconomic environment
Unchained is hiring!
Check out our job listing for a remote editorial assistant here!
Thank you to our sponsors!
Crypto.com: https://crypto.com
Kelman Law: https://crypto.law
Stellar: https://www.stellar.org
Episode links:
Mike Novogratz: https://twitter.com/novogratz
Galaxy Digital: https://www.galaxydigital.io
Raoul Pal: https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI
Real Vision: https://www.realvision.com
Unchained interview with Kyle Samani on what happened in the crypto markets on Black Thursday: https://unchainedpodcast.com/teetering-on-the-edge-how-black-thursday-exposed-the-flaws-in-the-crypto-markets/
Unconfirmed interview with Antoine Le Calvez on what happened on BitMEX during Black thursday: https://unchainedpodcast.com/what-happened-on-bitmex-during-black-thursday/
Unchained interview with Chamath Palihapitiya on Bitcoin: https://unchainedpodcast.com/chamath-palihapitiya-why-bitcoin-will-be-the-category-winner/
Brian Armstrong tweet about deposits to Coinbase the same size as the $1,200 stimulus check: https://twitter.com/brian_armstrong/status/1250907110730170370?s=20
China's DCEP and blockchain initiative: https://unchainedpodcast.com/why-china-aims-to-replace-cash-with-the-digital-yuan/
Unchained interview on Libra: https://unchainedpodcast.com/a-libra-co-creator-on-how-facebook-will-make-money-from-calibra/
Unconfirmed interview with the Libra Association's Dante Disparte: https://unchainedpodcast.com/libras-dante-disparte-on-why-we-should-trust-a-financial-system-designed-by-facebook/
Unconfirmed interview with Michael Casey on why it would it would be good if Libra rivaled the USD: https://unchainedpodcast.com/why-it-would-be-good-if-libra-rivaled-the-us-dollar/
Christopher Giancarlo's digital dollar project: https://unchainedpodcast.com/christopher-giancarlo-why-the-us-needs-to-have-a-digital-dollar/
Ethereum 2.0 staking: https://www.coindesk.com/3-ways-staking-will-upend-the-economics-of-ethereum
Unconfirmed with Kain Warwick on COMP's launch: https://unchainedpodcast.com/why-comp-5xed-on-day-1-and-what-this-means-for-a-defi-bull-market/
Unconfirmed interview with Tony Sheng on yield farming: https://unchainedpodcast.com/how-you-can-double-your-money-or-lose-everything/
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Macro investor Raoul Pal explains why the Fed is just 'papering up the cracks'
The U.S. Federal Reserve and the Federal government are working aggressively to implement policies to address the financial crisis tied to the spread of Covid-19. Most recently, Americans across the country began receiving checks to recoup losses in their incomes and the Fed said it would serve as a backstop for the junk bond market, announcing it would for the first time purchase corporate bonds including those in junk territory.
Such government actions has triggered a cacophony of criticism, some of whom argue the stimulus doesn't go far enough to address mounting unemployment. Others say the Fed's action could result in a surge in inflation.
In an episode of The Scoop, legendary macro investor and founder of Real Vision Raoul Pal joins The Block's Frank Chaparro and Ryan Todd to examine the current macro backdrop. Pal argues that the impact of Covid-19 on consumer of behavior—including a dip in spending on concerts and restaurants—is not being truly appreciated by the markets. In this episode we also explore:
Why stimulus up until this point is "papering up the cracks" and won't be enough to sustain the economy through the Covid-19 storm
What he would do if he ran the Fed
Why people should be worried about deflation, not inflation
How the "dollar is going to break the global system" and how that could benefit Libra or bitcoin
Episode 13 of Season 2 of The Scoop was recorded remotely with Frank Chaparro, Ryan Todd and Raoul Pal, CEO and founder of Real Vision.
