GMO

The man who predicted the dot-com crash and the 2007 housing collapse warns that the AI bubble is the biggest in American history. Billionaire investor Jeremy Grantham reveals why it will burst, the exact strategy to protect your money, and why house prices need to fall 30%. Jeremy Grantham is the co-founder of GMO, an institutional investment firm in Boston, and serves as the firm’s long-term investment strategist. He is also the chairman of the Grantham Foundation For the Preservation of the Environment, and co-author of “The Making of a Permabear: The Perils of Long-term Investing in a Short-term World”. Jeremy Grantham's comments are all his personal opinions and not the opinions of GMO. He explains: ◼ Why Wall Street will never warn you when to get out of the market, and what to do instead ◼ The exact portfolio Jeremy recommends to protect your money before the crash ◼ What everyday chemicals in your food and cosmetics are doing to your fertility ◼ Why house prices need to fall 30%, and what it means for your finances ◼ Why the AI boom won't automatically lead to higher profits, and what to buy instead Chapters 00:00:00 Who Is Jeremy Grantham? 00:02:34 Will AI Become The Next Financial Bubble? 00:06:38 How Jeremy Grantham Built An Investing Empire 00:07:45 The Most Money He's Ever Managed 00:08:09 Are You A Billionaire? 00:08:58 What Happens When The AI Bubble Bursts? 00:11:15 How AI Will Change Everyday Life 00:12:33 The Investing Strategy For Right Now 00:17:52 Why You Should Avoid US Stocks 00:19:54 Why Investment Advisors Mislead Clients 00:25:32 Advice For Entrepreneurs Right Now 00:28:22 The Real Risks Of AI 00:29:21 Should AI Have A Maternal Instinct? 00:34:06 What Happens If AI Lacks Benevolence? 00:35:44 The Battle Between The Magnificent 7 00:39:10 Ads 00:41:19 Which Jobs AI Will Replace First 00:43:41 Will SpaceX Eventually Fail? 00:49:52 Should You Invest In SpaceX? 00:50:02 The Most Valuable Skill For The Future 00:51:04 Is Society Declining And What Comes Next? 00:53:25 What History Says About Wealth Inequality 00:55:58 Should The Rich Pay More Tax? 00:57:21 How To Build Wealth In Your 30s Today 00:59:31 How To Invest Your Salary Wisely 01:02:20 Should You Own Crypto? 01:03:14 Will Bitcoin Eventually Go To Zero? 01:03:27 Is Property Still A Good Investment? 01:04:37 Ads 01:06:50 What's Really Causing The Baby Bust? 01:10:50 When Could Sperm Counts Reach Zero? 01:13:47 How Microplastics Affect Fertility 01:16:04 How Pesticides Impact Fertility 01:21:05 How To Reduce Toxic Chemical Exposure 01:22:16 Why US Products Are More Toxic 01:26:52 How To Stay Healthy In A Toxic World 01:33:17 The Most Important Thing We Missed 01:34:57 Should You Move Countries Right Now? 01:35:18 The Flaw That Destroys Societies 01:38:44 The Best Places To Live Today 01:40:02 What Would You Do If Failure Was Impossible? You can purchase ‘The Making of a Permabear: The Perils of Long-term Investing in a Short-term World’, here: https://link.thediaryofaceo.com/8zyh6RB The Diary Of A CEO: ◼ Join DOAC circle here - https://doaccircle.com/ ◼ Buy The Diary Of A CEO book here - https://smarturl.it/DOACbook ◼ The 1% Diary is back - limited time only: https://bit.ly/3YFbJbt ◼ The Diary Of A CEO Conversation Cards: https://linkly.link/2hm7r ◼ Get email updates - https://bit.ly/diary-of-a-ceo-yt ◼ Follow Steven - https://g2ul0.app.link/gnGqL4IsKKb Sponsors: Stan - Visit https://coach.stan.store/?ref=stevenbartlett&utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=episode11 Pipedrive - https://pipedrive.com/CEO HeyGen - https://heygen.com/doac

Jeremy Grantham

Long-Term Investment Strategist and Co-Founder

GMO

Jeremy Grantham, co-founder and long-term strategist of GMO, has a long history of calling bubbles. As he recounts in his new memoir, The Making of a Permabear: The Perils of Long-Term Investing in a Short-Term World, that includes spotting the dot-com bubble of the early 2000s, which some people see as analogous to the current excitement over AI. And when it comes to today's market, there are a lot of signs of frothiness you could point to. In this episode, we speak to Grantham about how he sees markets right now, including a watershed change for Big Tech stocks, the signs he watches out for to spot when a bubble might burst, and what really keeps him up at night. Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Sign up at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jeremy Grantham

Long-Term Investment Strategist and Co-Founder

GMO

More than a decade ago, GMO strategist James Montier published a paper predicting that corporate profit margins were destined to come down from "nosebleed" levels. Fast forward to 2023, and it's clear that hasn't happened as profit margins remain far above their long-term average. On this episode of the Odd Lots podcast, Montier explains what he got wrong back in 2012, why corporate profits have remained so stubbornly high, and what this could mean for stock valuations now. He also discusses the ongoing debate over whether high corporate earnings are fueling inflation, as well as revisiting the work of economist Michael Kalecki. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

James Montier

Strategist

GMO

Edward Chancellor is a financial historian, journalist, and author of, "Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation" and his latest, “The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest” The two books link together the history of money and finance, and human culture.  In today’s episode we explore the ways in which money and finance is embedded deeper in our lives than we may have previously thought.  ------ ✨ DEBRIEF | Unpacking the episode:  https://www.bankless.com/debrief-edward-chancellor    ------ ✨ COLLECTIBLES | Collect this episode:  https://collectibles.bankless.com/mint  ------ 🪂Airdrop Alpha is waiting for you on Bankless 🪂 https://bankless.cc/AirdropAlphaIsOnBankless  ------ We’re living in the era of Central Banker Capitalism, low interest rates and everything bubbles. Is this a new era? What does history tell us will happen next? Edward Chancellor is going to help us answer these questions. And along the way, you’ll learn timeless lessons about interest, debt, and the time value of money. ------ BANKLESS SPONSOR TOOLS:  📣 SWELL | Stake with Swell https://bankless.cc/Swell   ⚖️ ARBITRUM | SCALING ETHEREUM https://bankless.cc/Arbitrum  🧠 AMBIRE | SMART CONTRACT WALLET https://bankless.cc/Ambire   🐙KRAKEN | MOST-TRUSTED CRYPTO EXCHANGE https://k.xyz/bankless-pod-q2   🦄UNISWAP | ON-CHAIN MARKETPLACE https://bankless.cc/uniswap   🦊METAMASK LEARN | HELPFUL WEB3 RESOURCE https://bankless.cc/MetaMask  ------ TIMESTAMPS:  0:00 Intro 8:24 Edward’s Book Overlap 19:32 Speculative Bubble’s Inevitability  26:27 Interest, Debt, & Loans  31:15 Debt Jubilee & Inflation 35:05 The Necessity of Inflation  41:55 The Natural Rate of Interest  53:35 The Everything Bubble  1:04:10 The Price of Time  1:07:38 Devil’s Take the Hindmost  1:10:40 Have We Learned From Past Bubbles?  1:17:30 Austrian vs. Keynesian Economics 1:21:20 Edward’s Thoughts on Crypto 1:38:50 Predictions: What Happens Next? 1:42:27 Closing & Disclaimers  ------ RESOURCES: The Price of Time  https://www.amazon.com/Price-Time-Real-Story-Interest/dp/0802160069  Devil Take the Hinemost https://www.amazon.com/Devil-Take-Hindmost-Financial-Speculation/dp/0452281806  Primitive Money https://www.elsevier.com/books/primitive-money/einzig/978-0-08-011679-2  Digital Chicago Plan - Column In Breakingviews https://www.breakingviews.com/columns/digital-chicago-plan-fixes-many-financial-woes/  Irving Fisher 100% money https://mises.org/library/100-money  ----- Not financial or tax advice. This channel is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. This video is not tax advice. Talk to your accountant. Do your own research. Disclosure. From time-to-time I may add links in this newsletter to products I use. I may receive commission if you make a purchase through one of these links. Additionally, the Bankless writers hold crypto assets. See our investment disclosures here: https://www.bankless.com/disclosures

Edward Chancellor

Financial Historian & Author

GMO

My guest today is Jeremy Grantham. Jeremy is the Long-Term Investment Strategist and Co-Founder at GMO. Jeremy has an encyclopedic knowledge of the history of markets, which made it such a pleasure to have him back on the show. In this conversation, we discuss the three key signs of a bubble, why Jeremy believes we are in a bubble right now and how it’s being led by retail rather than institutional investors. We close with the important role that demographics and productivity will play over the next few decades across the world. Please enjoy my conversation with Jeremy Grantham.   For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page here. ----- This episode is brought to you by Koyfin, one of the fastest-growing fintech startups. I discovered Koyfin earlier this year when I asked Twitter for the best Bloomberg alternative, and the overwhelming winner was an intriguing new product called Koyfin.  Koyfin has tons of high-quality data, powerful functionality, and a nice clean interface. If you’re an individual investor, research analyst, portfolio manager, or financial advisor, you should definitely check them out. Sign up for free at koyfin.com.  ------ This episode is brought to you by MIT Investment Management Company. MITIMCO is the endowment office of MIT. New and small investment funds listen up. MITIMCO is looking to find investors starting funds today.   MITIMCO is partnership-driven, long-term focused, and has an extensive history of backing investors early in their careers. These partners are key in delivering the outstanding investment returns required to support MIT's pursuit of world-class education, cutting-edge research, and groundbreaking innovation. MITIMCO is focused on finding and partnering with the best investors across the globe, no matter the market environment. No firm is too small, too young, or too non-institutional.   If you or someone you know is currently in the process of starting a fund or recently launched, please email partner@mitimco.org or discover more on their website at mitimco.org/partner. ------ Invest Like the Best is a property of Colossus Inc. For more episodes of Invest Like the Best, visit joincolossus.com/episodes.  Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here.   Follow us on Twitter: @patrick_oshag | @JoinColossus   Show Notes [00:03:03] - [First question] - His view on the markets today  [00:03:07] - Jeremy Grantham’s Podcast Episode [00:08:00] - Proliferation of SPAC’s and how he views them as a potential bubble [00:10:20] - Could SPAC’s help to improve the IPO process [00:14:30] - How he viewed the Gamestop story through his historical context  [00:18:24] - Is investor education possible  [00:19:50] - How the increasing role of retail investors impacts bubbles [00:24:15] - Attitudes towards market bears in bubbles [00:28:52] - Long term view on the economy and the forces pushing it higher [00:41:50] - Returning to a hard money standard for the US economy [00:49:39] - Would a finite supply of money change market trajectory [00:51:02] - Best ways to improve the infrastructure of the economy and people’s willingness to work [00:53:52] - What should one do if they believe we are in a bubble [00:58:14] - What he is excited about in his green investments [01:02:28] - Advice to young investors

Jeremy Grantham

Long-Term Investment Strategist and Co-Founder

GMO

My guest today is Jeremy Grantham. Jeremy is the co-founder and chief investment strategist of Grantham, Mayo, & van Otterloo (aka GMO). GMO, which manages more than $60B for clients, was a firm that helped educate me early in my investing career. They’ve long published thought-provoking research, most of which came from Grantham himself. He is regarded as a highly knowledgeable investor in various stock, bond, and commodity markets, but is particularly noted for his prediction of various bubbles. In this conversation we discuss the current crisis, which he calls the fourth major event of his long and storied career as an investor. As he says, this one is the most uncertain. We also discuss unique topics like commodity-based companies, and how opportunity often lies between fields of expertise. Please enjoy our conversation. For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast. Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub. Follow Patrick on Twitter at @patrick_oshag   Show Notes (1:37) – (First question) – What keeps him going in investing (2:54) – Changing approaches to managing money over the decades (7:27) – Their investment forecast for major allocations and how that has evolved (10:06) – How to markets compete with FAANG stocks (16:06) – More opportunity for active investors and where (30:55) – How he talks to clients about major stock market events (34:09) – His interest in natural resources/commodities (47:07) – Long term argument for the three natural resources: oil, metals, and food             (47:10) – An Investment Only A Mother Could Love: The Tactical Case (52:01) – Specific case for particular metals (56:46) – Areas in the future that excite him or that he wants to learn more about (1:03:42) – Advice for people interested in investing (1:05:15) – Kindest thing anyone has done for Jeremy   Learn More For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast.  Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub Follow Patrick on Twitter at @patrick_oshag

Jeremy Grantham

Long-Term Investment Strategist and Co-Founder

GMO