Bill Gurley & Michael Mauboussin - Putting Theory into Practice - [Invest Like the Best, EP.370]
My guests today are Bill Gurley and Michael Mauboussin. Bill is a General Partner at Benchmark, and Michael is the Head of Consilient Research for Counterpoint Global. While they are longtime friends with one another, I’d never heard them appear somewhere together so it was a real treat to be able to do this with the two of them. They are two of the leading minds in their fields, and we combined their decades of expertise into one wide-ranging conversation. We discuss the different kinds of increasing returns to scale, the issue of regulatory capture, AI, and hardware. Please enjoy this great conversation with Bill Gurley and Michael Mauboussin.
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For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page here.
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Invest Like the Best is a property of Colossus, LLC. For more episodes of Invest Like the Best, visit joincolossus.com/episodes.
Past guests include Tobi Lutke, Kevin Systrom, Mike Krieger, John Collison, Kat Cole, Marc Andreessen, Matthew Ball, Bill Gurley, Anu Hariharan, Ben Thompson, and many more.
Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here.
Follow us on Twitter: @patrick_oshag | @JoinColossus
Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com).
Show Notes:
(00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like the Best
(00:03:38) Dissecting the Dynamics of AI, LLMs, and Market Disruption
(00:05:06) The World of AI Investments and Market Trends
(00:08:13) Integration of New Technologies in Business
(00:15:27) The Power of Increasing Returns and Strategic Investments
(00:22:26) Unpacking the Role of Intangibles in Scaling and Innovation
(00:28:54) Transformative Potential of Open Source and Idea Recombination
(00:34:42) The Complex Landscape of Regulation and Innovation
(00:43:17) Today’s Venture Capital Ecosystem
(00:47:08) Impact of Fewer IPOs and Private Market Dynamics
(00:50:38) Capital Allocation in Zero Interest Rate Environments
(00:54:44) The Evolution of Venture Capital and High-Stakes Investment Games
(00:57:21) Exploring New Frontiers: AI, Energy, and Physical World Innovations
(01:01:14) The Power of Learning by Doing
(01:17:49) Working with Genius
(01:26:47) The Value of Teaching, Writing, and Sharing Knowledge
Zoltan Pozsar on His Next Big Move and the Coming Monetary Divorce
Zoltan Pozsar has built a reputation for covering the intricacies of money markets. For the past eight years, he published those insights as a strategist at Credit Suisse. But in this episode of the Odd Lots podcast, Pozsar reveals his next career move following his departure from the Swiss bank earlier this year. He also gives us an update on his Bretton Woods III thesis, or the idea that the global financial system is going through a "monetary divorce" from US dollar hegemony and becoming more multi-polar. He also gives us his take on the recent banking crisis and what it means for global funding markets going forward.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Michael Mauboussin - Sharpening Investor & Executive Toolkits - [Invest Like the Best, EP.308]
My guest this week is Michael Mauboussin. Many of you will know Michael and his work well. He’s Head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global, one of the sharpest investment minds I know, and a frequent guest on this show. In this discussion, we go deep into his recent work on market share, returns on capital, and capital allocation - all of which are coming under increasing scrutiny for different reasons. Please enjoy this great conversation with my friend Michael Mauboussin.
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Founders Episode #136 A Success Story: Estee Lauder
Invest Like the Best with David Senra: Passion & Pain
For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page here.
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Invest Like the Best is a property of Colossus, LLC. For more episodes of Invest Like the Best, visit joincolossus.com/episodes.
Past guests include Tobi Lutke, Kevin Systrom, Mike Krieger, John Collison, Kat Cole, Marc Andreessen, Matthew Ball, Bill Gurley, Anu Hariharan, Ben Thompson, and many more.
Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here.
Follow us on Twitter: @patrick_oshag | @JoinColossus
Show Notes
[00:03:46] - [First question] - Overview of Michael’s recent research on market share
[00:05:48] - Market share dynamics in modern history
[00:08:43] - How market share data is useful for investors
[00:12:30] - Investing in early breakout companies from low-concentration markets
[00:14:34] - Surprises from his recent research project
[00:15:29] - Using the value stick for stakeholder satisfaction
[00:19:12] - Examples of value creation using the value stick
[00:23:33] - Market power in relation to markups and willingness to pay
[00:32:00] - Identifying a company’s real ROIC numbers
[00:44:00] - How important absolute ROIC is when picking investments
[00:47:07] - Research on capital generation and allocation trends
[00:54:25] - Characteristics of great capital allocation strategies
[00:59:26] - Surprises in the market since his deep-dive research
[01:02:54] - Artificial intelligence and other sources of disruptive innovation
20VC: Michael Mauboussin on Good vs Bad Investment Decision-Making Processes, How To Improve Your Process, How To Know When it Needs Improving and The Single Biggest Mistakes People Make In Their Decision-Making Process
Michael Mauboussin is Head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global. Previously, he was Director of Research at BlueMountain Capital, Head of Global Financial Strategies at Credit Suisse, and Chief Investment Strategist at Legg Mason Capital Management. He is also the author of three incredible books, including More Than You Know: Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places, named in The 100 Best Business Books of All Time by 800-CEO-Read. Michael has taught at Columbia Business School since 1993 and received the Dean's Award for Teaching Excellence in 2009 and 2016.
In Today's Episode with Michael Mauboussin We Discuss:
1.) Entry into Venture and Finance:
What does Michael actually do as "Head of Consilient Research"?
What does Michael know now that he wishes he had known when he entered finance?
How did Michael and Bill Gurley meet in business school? What does Michael believe makes Bill such a special investor today?
2.) Booms and Busts: How This Compares?
How does the current macro downturn compare to prior crashes Michael has worked through?
What is the same? What is different? How do political and health events impact the macro?
Why was 1987 the end of the world at the time? How did the recovery take place?
How does Michael analyze the duration of bull markets vs the duration of recovery time?
What advice does Michael give to young people today questioning if they are good investors?
3.) The Investment Decision-Making Process:
How does Michael advise on the structuring of your decision-making process?
What makes a good process vs a bad process?
What can be done to remove politics from the decision-making process?
What can be done to ensure all people, regardless of hierarchy feel safe in the process and feel they can share their thoughts without repercussions?
What are the single biggest mistakes Michael sees people make in their decision-making process?
How do you know when is the right time to change your process?
4.) Everything is a DCF:
What does Michael mean when he says that "everything is a DCF"?
How does Michael advise and apply this thinking to early-stage venture investors?
How does Michael think through highly diversified portfolios vs super concentrated portfolios in venture?
Items Mentioned in Today's Episode:
Michael's Favourite Book: Consilience: The Unity of Knowledge by E.O Wilson
Zoltan Pozsar and Perry Mehrling Debate Bretton Woods 3.0
Credit Suisse strategist Zoltan Pozsar has found a new level of fame over the last year, arguing that we're witnessing the birth of a new currency regime that he calls "Bretton Woods 3.0". In this new era, the centrality of the dollar will fade, in favor of commodities or commodity-backed currencies. But not everyone is convinced. And in fact one skeptic is Pozsar's own close collaborator Perry Mehrling, who is now a professor at Boston University. In a special live episode of the podcast, recorded in front of an audience, we were joined by Pozsar and Mehrling, who debated Pozsar's thesis and the future of the dollar more broadly.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
This Is Zoltan Pozsar's Vision For Bretton Woods III
Over the last several years, most economic crises have been solvable by money. Swap lines. Bailouts. Central bank asset purchases, and so on. But now the world is experiencing something new: A problem that money can't easily solve. When it comes to, for example, avoiding Russian energy, there's no simple solution. Money can't buy an instant energy changeover. This is all part of a new regime that Zoltan Pozsar, Managing Director and head of Global STIR Strategy at Credit Suisse, likens to Bretton Woods III. On this episode, he returns to spell out his framework, and what it means for financial markets, the dollar, and the new world economy overall.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Zoltan Pozsar on Russia, Gold, and a Turning Point for the U.S. Dollar
Even prior to Russia's attack on Ukraine, the global economy was facing an extraordinary moment. Now things have become massively more complex. In addition to the attack itself, rich Western governments have unveiled historically powerful sanctions against Russia, most notably by freezing much of the country's FX reserves. So what are the immediate and long term ramifications? On this episode, we speak with Credit Suisse short-term interest rate strategist Zoltan Pozsar on what this all means, how the Fed will react, why gold is important again, and how could this mark a turning point for the global dominance of the US dollar.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Michael Mauboussin Master Class — Moats, Skill, Luck, Decision Making and a Whole Lot More
We sit down with the one & only Michael Mauboussin to dive deep into his incredible body of work: untangling skill and luck, measuring moats, persistence of returns in venture capital, decision making and — particularly timely — expectations investing and how to think about valuations in the current 2021 market environment. (!!) Michael's work is maybe our most frequent carve out on Acquired, so we're pumped to finally have a chance to interview the man himself. Big thank you to Patrick O'Shaughnessy and Brent Beshore for introducing us all at Capital Camp this year!
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Links:
Michael's wonderful talk at Google: https://youtu.be/1JLfqBsX5Lc
The new revised edition of Expectations Investing: https://www.amazon.com/Expectations-Investing-Reading-Returns-Heilbrunn/dp/0231203047/
The Success Equation: https://www.amazon.com/The-Success-Equation-Untangling-Investing/dp/1422184234/
Measuring the Moat: https://research-doc.credit-suisse.com/docView?language=ENG&format=PDF&sourceid=csplusresearchcp&document_id=1066439791&serialid=4uA2wHojCvFKzqWfwIyDvkSN1pkXRpb43LvyclLcJsk%3D&cspId=null
Public to Private Equity: https://www.morganstanley.com/im/publication/insights/articles/articles_publictoprivateequityintheusalongtermlook_us.pdf
Note: Acquired hosts and guests may hold assets discussed in this episode. This podcast is not investment advice, and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. You should do your own research and make your own independent decisions when considering any financial transactions.
Zoltan Pozsar on What’s Going on in Rates Markets Right Now
There's a lot happening in the plumbing of the financial system. The Federal Reserve's reverse repo facility has seen huge takeup from financial market participants seeking to park excess cash. Meanwhile, the central bank has also announced the start of a new standing repo facility. And, of course, we're nearing the start of tapering, when the Fed will start to wind down its asset purchases. On this episode, we bring back Credit Suisse Strategist Zoltan Pozsar to talk about everything that's going on right now. He describes a system awash with dollars that no one wants, and walks us through what that means for broader markets.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Zoltan Pozsar on What Just Happened with the Treasury Market
The Treasury market just experienced what some might call a tantrum. Across the yield curve, we saw rates shoot up. And it's not even clear why it happened. There was no comment from a Fed official like there was with the 2013 taper tantrum. No single datapoint that stood out. On this episode, we speak with Credit Suisse's famed strategist Zoltan Pozsar about what happened to cause this selloff, what it says about Treasury market structure, what reforms may be coming down the pike, and whether the Fed needs to act further to restore order to the market.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Michael Mauboussin On Valuing Intangible Assets
Measuring a company's book value is a classic practice among investors seeking to understand how much a firm's actual assets are worth. But what happens when a firm's assets are not things like buildings, factories, and land, but intangible assets, such as intellectual property and brand value? How does that change the task of analyzing a company's intrinsic worth? On this episode, we speak with Michael Mauboussin, Head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global (part of Morgan Stanley) about valuing these assets, and how investors can use this information to get a better read on their investments.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Michael Mauboussin – Great Migration Public to Private Equity - [Invest Like the Best, EP.189]
My guest this week is Michael Mauboussin, the head of consilient research at Counterpoint Global. Michael is an all-time favorite guest here on the show, and this is his fourth appearance. We discuss one of the biggest topics in the world of investing: the shift from public to private markets that has taken place over the last several decades. We explore the reasons for this shift, the biggest overall changes in capital markets, and what the future may hold. Along the way we explore other fascinating topics like the rise of intangible asset investments, employee-based compensation as a form of financing, and more. If you enjoy this conversation I urge you to read Michael’s paper on the topic which will be linked in the shownotes. Please enjoy this conversation with Michael Mauboussin.
This episode of Invest Like The Best is sponsored by Canalyst. Canalyst is the leading destination for public company data and analysis.
If you’re a professional equity investor and haven’t talked to Canalyst recently, you should give them a shout. Learn more and try Canalyst for yourself at canalyst.com/Patrick.
For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast.
Sign up for the book club and new email newsletter called “Inside the Episode” at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub.
Follow Patrick on Twitter at @patrick_oshag
Show Notes
(2:27) – (First question) – Motivation for writing the book from public to private equity
(2:28) – Public to Private Equity in the US: A Long-Term Look
(3:02) – The Incredible Shrinking Universe of Stocks
(4:48) – Size of the public vs private markets
(7:20) – History and changes in the public to private markets
(12:00) – Public market vs venture capital returns
(16:48) – Persistence of returns
(20:01) – Role of price and EBIDTA on the returns of a buyout
(23:31) – How buyout forms are sourcing the debt
(29:31) – Transition to businesses relying on intangibles
(29:42) – Capitalism without Capital: The Rise of the Intangible Economy
(30:13) – Endogenous Technological Change
(30:36) – Should Intangible Investments Be Reported Separately or Commingled with Operating Expenses? New Evidence
(34:18) – Explaining the Recent Failure of Value Investing
(36:21) – Superstar firms and increasing returns
(42:38) – Role on monopolies in creating network effects
(4:52) – The allocators perspective in these investments
(49:16) – How does this all impact public market active management
(51:54) – Advice to young people getting into the investment industry
(52:30) – Jeremy Grantham Podcast Episode
(53:30) – Other areas he is researching/looking into
(55:44) – How investment work and Santa Fe research influence eachother
(56:54) – Investors to learn from
(57:15) – John Collison Podcast Episode
Learn More
For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast.
Sign up for the book club and new email newsletter called “Inside the Episode” at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub.
Follow Patrick on Twitter at @patrick_oshag
Zoltan Pozsar and Perry Mehrling On The Historic Crisis Of Financial Market Plumbing
The plumbing of the financial system is coming under strain like never before. On this week’s podcast, we speak with two legendary experts on how the money system works: Zoltan Pozsar of Credit Suisse and Perry Mehrling of the Frederick S. Pardee School of Global Studies. They explain the extreme level of stress we’re seeing, what the Fed has done to alleviate, what more needs to be done, and what the post-crisis future may look like.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Why The Repo Markets Went Crazy, And Why December Could Be Even Worse
Back in September, chaos erupted in short-term funding markets, as the cost for financial institutions to borrow reserves soared. Immediately a major debate broke out over whether this represented a systemic problem for the financial system or merely a technical problem with the "plumbing." Things have quieted down since September, but the debate hasn't stopped. And there's still no permanent fix. On this week's Odd Lots podcast, we spoke with Zoltan Pozsar of Credit Suisse, who has a reputation for understanding the mechanics of these funding markets better than anyone else in the world. He broke down what really happened, and why we could see more craziness as soon as next month.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Why Foreign Investors Cooled On U.S. Debt
There's something wrong with prices in funding and bond markets, according to this week's Odd Lots guest. Zoltan Pozsar is a former adviser to the U.S. Treasury turned strategist at Credit Suisse. He argues that sweeping changes in the world's money markets help explain why foreign investors aren't buying as much U.S. debt as they used to. That could have big implications for the Federal Reserve as it attempts to wind down its balance sheet.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Michael Mauboussin – The Four Sources of Alpha - [Invest Like the Best, EP.126]
My guest this week for the third time is Michael Mauboussin. If there is a major question about markets and investing, Michael has usually written one of the best pieces of research on that topic. Today’s conversation is a mix of several of his research pieces, but focuses on the sources of alpha. The framing of the conversation is the brilliant question “who is on the other side” of a given trade. If you are buying, who is selling, and why? Knowing the answer to this question is one key to understanding where excess return comes from. As is usual with Michael, we also explore tons of other interesting ideas that will serve as food for thought. Please enjoy.
For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast.
Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub.
Follow Patrick on Twitter at @patrick_oshag
Show Notes
1:23 - (First Question) – An outline of the syllabus for the course he teaches
4:02 – What are smart people missing when it comes to decision making
5:33 – Why Michael went down the path of defining major investing concepts
7:41 – On the impossibility of informational inefficient markets
9:14 – Beware behavioral finance
12:03 – What are the behavioral errors that people can take advantage of in a trade
15:14 – Timing opportunities
17:25 – Modest Proposal Podcast Episode
17:47 – Where the analytical edge comes from
21:16 – Is there an advantage to exhibit time arbitrage
23:53 – Technical arbitrage
29:34 – What impact do flows into ETFs play on the market
32:25 – Informational edge and how you source that edge
36:39 – Biggest changes that he has seen on the buy side
43:18 - How would Michael apply this as a sports GM
48:35 – His views on stock buybacks
51:02 – The Outsiders: Eight Unconventional CEOs and Their Radically Rational Blueprint for Success
52:55 – EBIT to EBITDA paper
54:43 – What Does a PE Multiple Mean?
59:28 – The concept of benign myths
1:02:06 – What the future holds of Michael
1:04:17 – The Myth of Capitalism: Monopolies and the Death of Competition
Learn More
For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast.
Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub
Follow Patrick on twitter at @patrick_oshag
Michael Mauboussin - Man + Machine, Moats, and Power of the Outside View - [Invest Like the Best, EP.37]
My guest today is Michael Mauboussin, who is the head of global financial strategies at Credit Suisse and is on my short list of must read writers on all things investing. If you read his entire catalogue, Howard Marks's memos, and Buffett's shareholder letters, you be sitting pretty. Michael was also a big reason for the early success of this show appearing as my second guest and now my 37th. He and his team have been prolific in the last six months, publishing several long research reports on the most interesting aspects of the investing landscape. In this conversation, we talk about business moats, industry analysis, and how to combine man and machine when building an investment strategy and portfolio. As I tell Michael at the end, you won't be able to listen to this episode at two times speed, because we go deep quickly.
For comprehensive show notes on this episode go to http://investorfieldguide.com/michael
For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast.
Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub.
Follow Patrick on Twitter at @patrick_oshag
How Poker Explains the Battle of Passive and Active Investing
Among the biggest trends in the world of markets is the rise of passive investing. Rather than pay high fees to active mutual fund managers (who often fail to beat the market), people are pouring money into passive strategies that track major indices, but with little cost. So what are the ramifications of this trend for investors who choose to remain active? On this week's Odd Lots podcast, we speak with Michael Mauboussin, who heads global financial strategies at Credit Suisse and is not just an expert on the world of investing, but also on the role of luck in success. As he sees it, trading is like a game of poker, and in poker you want to play against weaker, less-skilled players. But as more and more of those less-skilled players opt not to trade (choosing passive strategies) then the game gets harder.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Michael Mauboussin – Active Asset Management - [Invest Like the Best, EP.02]
Michael Mauboussin, Managing Director and Head of Global Financial Strategies at Credit Suisse, joins Patrick to discuss the current state of the asset management business, explore all of the stages of the investment process, and what edges might exist for those trying to beat the market.
For comprehensive show notes on this episode go to investorfieldguide.com/mauboussin/
For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast.
Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub
Follow Patrick on twitter at @patrick_oshag
