Happy holidays! We’ll be sharing snippets from Latent Space LIVE! through the break bringing you the best of 2024 from friends of the pod!
For NeurIPS last year we did our standard conference podcast coverage interviewing selected papers (that we have now also done for ICLR and ICML), however we felt that we could be doing more to help AI Engineers 1) get more industry-relevant content, and 2) recap 2024 year in review from experts. As a result, we organized the first Latent Space LIVE!, our first in person miniconference, at NeurIPS 2024 in Vancouver.
For our opening keynote, we could think of no one better to cover 'The State of AI Startups' than our friend Sarah Guo (AI superinvestor, founder of Conviction, host of No Priors!) and Pranav Reddy (Conviction partner) to share their takes on how the AI landscape evolved in 2024 examine the evolving AI landscape and what it means for startups, enterprises, and the industry as a whole! They completely understood the assignment.
Recorded live with 200+ in-person and 2200+ online attendees at NeurIPS 2024, this keynote kicks off our mini-conference series exploring different domains of AI development in 2024. Enjoy!
Links
Slides: https://x.com/saranormous/status/1866933642401886707
Sarh Guo: https://x.com/saranormous
Pranav Reddy: https://x.com/prnvrdy
Full Video on YouTube
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My guest today is Sarah Guo. Sarah is the founder and CEO of Conviction, an early-stage venture capital firm built to serve AI companies. She started Conviction in 2022 after 9 years at Greylock because she believes AI is the most important technological advancement of our lifetime. In our conversation, Sarah discusses the challenges and rewards of leaving an established investing firm to start her own venture. She shares her unique perspective on the AI landscape and reveals her predictions for what we should expect on the AI frontier. Please enjoy this great conversation with the very impressive Sarah Guo.
For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page here.
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Invest Like the Best is a property of Colossus, LLC. For more episodes of Invest Like the Best, visit joincolossus.com/episodes.
Past guests include Tobi Lutke, Kevin Systrom, Mike Krieger, John Collison, Kat Cole, Marc Andreessen, Matthew Ball, Bill Gurley, Anu Hariharan, Ben Thompson, and many more.
Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here.
Follow us on Twitter: @patrick_oshag | @JoinColossus
Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com).
Show Notes:
(00:00:00) Our Partners: Ridgeline and Tegus
(00:03:30) Welcome to Invest Like the Best
(00:04:30) Introduction & Recruiting in Venture Capital
(00:05:06) Key Traits for Early-Stage Venture Capitalists
(00:06:57) Lessons from Early Investments
(00:07:47) The Journey of Building a Company
(00:09:01) The Decision to Start Conviction
(00:11:36) Launching Conviction and Initial Steps
(00:13:43) First Investment at Conviction
(00:14:00) Evaluating AI Application Companies
(00:16:29) Challenges and Opportunities in AI Applications
(00:23:57) Minimum Viable Quality in AI Products
(00:33:19) Future of AI and Frontier Models
(00:38:56) The Unpredictable Future of AI
(00:40:16) The Importance of Efficiency in AI Models
(00:44:28) The Business of AI: Costs and Margins
(00:45:47) Infrastructure and Hardware Challenges
(00:48:54) The Competitive Landscape of AI Chips
(00:54:24) The Future of AI and Society
(00:56:34) Opportunities and Innovations in AI
(01:02:09) Concerns and Ethical Considerations
(01:03:36) Debates and Research in AI
(01:09:01) Personal Reflections and Closing Thoughts
Episode 612: Sam Parr ( https://twitter.com/theSamParr ) and Shaan Puri ( https://twitter.com/ShaanVP ) talk to Sarah Guo ( https://x.com/saranormous ) about the Ai ideas she thinks could be $1B swings.
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Show Notes:
(0:00) Intro
(4:00) IDEA: AI companions
(16:00) IDEA: AI interior design / professional headshots
(22:30) IDEA: A richer version of The Sims
(25:00) The speedy way to do this if you're non-technical
(27:00) IDEA: Your Personal Seller
(32:00) IDEA: Generative Voice API for service providers, SMBs, restaurants
(38:00) IDEA: Next Gen Auto-Fill
(40:00) Software 3.0--what's coming
(42:00) Boring verticals fertile for AI: Legal and medical
(44:00) Ask: What's already being outsourced?
(47:00) Ripe for disruption: energy storage, chips,
(49:00) “Ai's $600B Question”
(52:00) Sarah Reacts: Doomsday scenarios in Ai
(56:30) If you're 22, hungry and optimistic, go west
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Links:
• Sarah Guo - https://sarahguo.com/
• Conviction - https://www.conviction.com/
• No Priors Podcast - https://www.youtube.com/@NoPriorsPodcast
• Replika - https://replika.com/
• Character.ai - https://character.ai/
• HeyGen - https://www.heygen.com/
• Icon - https://icon.me/
• Arcads - https://www.arcads.ai/
• Interior AI - https://interiorai.com/
• Aragon - https://aragon.ai/
• Chatbot App - https://chatbotapp.ai/
• Cartesia - https://cartesia.ai/
• Somewhere - https://www.somewhere.com/
• AI’s $600B Question - https://www.sequoiacap.com/article/ais-600b-question/
• Eureka Labs - https://eurekalabs.ai/
• Conviction Embed - https://embed.conviction.com/
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Check Out Shaan's Stuff:
Need to hire? You should use the same service Shaan uses to hire developers, designers, & Virtual Assistants → it’s called Shepherd (tell ‘em Shaan sent you): https://bit.ly/SupportShepherd
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Check Out Sam's Stuff:
• Hampton - https://www.joinhampton.com/
• Ideation Bootcamp - https://www.ideationbootcamp.co/
• Copy That - https://copythat.com
• Hampton Wealth Survey - https://joinhampton.com/wealth
• Sam’s List - http://samslist.co/
My First Million is a HubSpot Original Podcast // Brought to you by The HubSpot Podcast Network // Production by Arie Desormeaux // Editing by Ezra Bakker Trupiano
Explore the Future of Investment & Impact in AI with Host Lukas Biewald and Guests Elad Gill and Sarah Guo of the No Priors podcast.
Sarah is the founder of Conviction VC, an AI-centric $100 million venture fund. Elad, a seasoned entrepreneur and startup investor, boasts an impressive portfolio in over 40 companies, each valued at $1 billion or more, and wrote the influential "High Growth Handbook."
Join us for a deep dive into the nuanced world of AI, where we'll explore its broader industry impact, focusing on how startups can seamlessly blend product-centric approaches with a balance of innovation and practical development.
*Subscribe to Weights & Biases* → https://bit.ly/45BCkYz
Timestamps:
0:00 - Introduction
5:15 - Exploring Fine-Tuning vs RAG in AI
10:30 - Evaluating AI Research for Investment
15:45 - Impact of AI Models on Product Development
20:00 - AI's Role in Evolving Job Markets
25:15 - The Balance Between AI Research and Product Development
30:00 - Code Generation Technologies in Software Engineering
35:00 - AI's Broader Industry Implications
40:00 - Importance of Product-Driven Approaches in AI Startups
45:00 - AI in Various Sectors: Beyond Software Engineering
50:00 - Open Source vs Proprietary AI Models
55:00 - AI's Impact on Traditional Roles and Industries
1:00:00 - Closing Thoughts
Thanks for listening to the Gradient Dissent podcast, brought to you by Weights & Biases. If you enjoyed this episode, please leave a review to help get the word out about the show. And be sure to subscribe so you never miss another insightful conversation.
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#OCR #DeepLearning #AI #Modeling #ML
Sarah Guo is the founder of VC firm, Conviction, and co-host of the “No Priors” podcast. She joins Big Technology to talk about generative AI, where the opportunity for new investment lies, and whether the fears surrounding AI are grounded in reality. She gives us unique insight into what the next round of AI tools might look like, and what the impact on our jobs and lives will be as this tech becomes more accessible and affordable. Stay tuned for the second half where we run down how each Big Tech company is (or isn't) taking advantage of this moment.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Nathan Labenz and Erik Torenberg sit down with Sarah Guo and Elad Gil, notable investors and co-hosts of the AI-focused No Priors podcast. They discuss how Sarah and Elad are approaching AI investment opportunities right now, how that differs from how they've thought about investing in the past, where in the stack from hardware to applications they expect to see value accrue, what modes of human-AI interaction they are most interested in, and more.
Sarah is the founder of $100M AI-focused venture fund Conviction VC, which she launched last fall. She was previously General Partner at Greylock. Elad is a serial entrepreneur and a startup investor. He has invested in over 40 companies now worth $1B or more each, and is also author of the High Growth Handbook.
This episode is the first in a series centered on talking to rising voices in AI media, people who are now only working overtime to understand everything going on in AI, but also creating thought leadership and educational content meant to help others get up to speed as well.
LINKS:
No Priors Podcast on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0O65xhqvGVhpgdIrrdlEYk
No Priors on Apple Podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/no-priors-artificial-intelligence-machine-learning/id1668002688
Elad Gil's blog: https://blog.eladgil.com/
Sarah Guo's blog: https://sarahguo.com/blog
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We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com.
TIMESTAMPS:
(00:00) Episode preview
(04:43) What is software 3.0
(09:14) Disruption coming from startups or incumbents?
(13:42) Sarah and Elad identify overlooked investment opportunities in AI
(15:19) Sponsor: Omneky
(15:46) Future of social media
(22:45) AI agents & personal co-pilots
(25:32) Where to invest in AI?
(31:11) How our kids will interact with AI
(34:50) How to gain conviction as an investor in AI
(45:07) When should founders raise money and when should they bootstrap?
(46:28) How should startups spend their capital now that we have AI capabilities?
(48:10) Sarah & Elad’s favorite products in AI
(51:39) Would Sarah & Elad get a neuralink implant?
(53:41) AI hopes and fears
TWITTER:
@CogRev_Podcast
@labenz (Nathan)
@eriktorenberg (Erik)
@sarahnormous (Sarah)
@eladgil (Elad)
SPONSORS:
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This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and experts. We’re launching new shows every week, and we’re looking for industry-leading sponsors — if you think that might be you and your company, email us at erik@turpentine.co.
More show notes and reading material released in our Substack: https://cognitiverevolution.substack.com/
Sarah Guo is the Founding Partner @ Conviction Capital, a $100M first fund purpose-built to serve "Software 3.0" companies. Prior to founding Conviction, Sarah was a General Partner at Greylock where she made investments in the likes of Figma, Coda, Neeva and many more incredible companies. Sarah also hosts her own podcast, No Priors with the wonderful Elad Gil.
In Today's Episode with Sarah Guo We Discuss:
1. From Large Multi-Stage Firm to Founding Conviction:
Why did Sarah decide to leave Greylock?
What are 1-2 of her biggest lessons from her time at Greylock? How did they impact her mindset when building Conviction today?
What does Sarah believe are the most surprising or hardest elements of firm building?
2. The Future for AI: The Opportunities and the Challenges:
Why does Sarah believe AI is the most foundational technology of our lifetime?
Why did Sarah decide to centre the entire fund around AI? Is AI not an enabling technology that will power all sectors in technology?
Is Sarah concerned by the further wealth inequality that AI and billion dollar companies created by 10 people, will inevitably bring?
How does Sarah think about the potential for malicious AI use? What can be done to prevent this?
3. Startup and VC Principles That Are BS:
Why does Sarah believe that defensibility is BS?
Why do Sarah and Harry both believe that reserves in venture funds are a suboptimal use of funds?
"Great founder, bad market, market wins". Does Sarah agree? How does Sarah prioritize the centrality of founder vs market?
4. Sarah Guo: The Investor
How has Sarah changed most significantly as an investor over the last 5 years?
What is Sarah's biggest miss? How did it impact her mindset today?
What is Sarah's biggest win? How did that alter her risk appetite?
How does Sarah see the future of venture?
If Sarah could invest in one multi-stage firm and one seed-stage firm, which would it be?
Sarah Guo isn't late to the AI party, but she did just raise a $101 million fund to bet on the appetizers.
Hello and welcome back to Equity, a podcast about the business of startups, where we unpack the numbers and nuance behind the headlines. This is our Wednesday show, where we niche down to a single person, think about their work, and unpack the rest. This week, Natasha and Alex interviewed Guo, who worked at Greylock for nearly a decade, and her launch of Conviction.
We spoke about the self-correcting venture market, what made her leave Greylock, and even rewound to her last episode with us (recorded almost exactly three years ago).
There was also an especially fruitful conversation about the opportunity in artificial intelligence right now, and how she's defining Software 3.0. (Warning: We talk about SaaS!) We also dug into why she started a fund, the LP market, and more. The conversation ran a bit long, but it felt reasonable to keep going given the sheer breadth of stuff that we wanted to get through.
Don't forget that Equity is going to be live at Disrupt next week, on Tuesday morning. It's going to be a blast. And before we go, two programming notes (that help your wallet, too):
First up, use code “EQUITY” for a special listener discount for Disrupt tickets. We’re less than one month away!
We also have a special for those impacted by layoffs. If you were laid off, go here to get a free ticket to TechCrunch Disrupt’s Expo.
Equity drops every Monday at 7 a.m. PT and Wednesday and Friday at 6 a.m. PT, so subscribe to us on Apple Podcasts, Overcast, Spotify and all the casts. TechCrunch also has a great show on crypto, a show that interviews founders, a show that details how our stories come together and more!
Credits: Equity is produced by Theresa Loconsolo with editing by Kell. Bryce Durbin is our Illustrator. We'd also like to thank the audience development team and Henry Pickavet, who manages TechCrunch audio products.
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0:52 Jason intros Greylock's Sarah Guo
3:37 How did Sarah wind up at Greylock?
5:45 Sarah explains Greylock's "Zero to One" thesis & typical term commitment of a VC
11:53 How does Sarah measure her personal performance and her portfolio's performance? What are her biggest strengths as an investor?
16:12 How does she sharpen her decision-making skills?
17:53 Ranking her investment criteria: People, Markets & Product
20:26 Balancing intensity & life outside of work, the commitment of early-stage startups
27:26 Work-life balance & how the venture landscape changed over time
35:36 Greylock's structured & what was Sarah's first investment & how did it play into her investment thesis?
43:38 Sarah's investments in work-enabling software
48:00 Sarah recommends Dylan Field of Figma join the show - episode dropping Friday!
49:22 Identifying subtle flashes of brilliance in early products
58:28 Female founders being held to a higher standard
1:02:35 Anti-portfolio: Zoom
1:10:06 Sarah turns off her virtual background and reveals her location
Sarah Guo is an investor @ Greylock Partners, which she joined in 2013. Prior to Greylock, Sarah was at Goldman Sachs, where she invested in Dropbox and helped take Workday public. She advised pre-IPO private technology companies (as well as public clients including Zynga, Netflix and Nvidia) on strategic and financial issues. Previously, Sarah worked with Casa Systems, a venture-funded startup that enables cable operators to meet growing demand for broadband services. She is an advocate for STEM education for women and the underserved, as well as education more generally.
In Today's Episode You Will Learn:
1.) How Sarah made her way into VC with Greylock Partners?
2.) Question from Josh Elman: What were Sarah's biggest learnings from taking key companies public with GS in 2011? Why is narrative so important? Who has done it well?
3.) How does Sarah view market size and market creation? What is a big enough market size to be attractive? How does this change with time and product?
4.) How does Sarah view the next fundamental platform shift? Where does conversational fit into this thesis? Will we see 'machine learning as a service'?
5.) What does the future of VC look like? What does the next generation of VC need to do to stay on top and ensure pattern matching algorithms do not outperform them?
Items Mentioned In Today's Show:
Sarah's Fave Book: The Most Human Human
Sarah's Most Recent Investment: Rhumbix
As always you can follow Harry, The Twenty Minute VC and Sarah on Twitter here!
Likewise, you can follow Harry on Snapchat here for mojito madness and all things 20VC.
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