The Compendium - Connor Leahy and Gabriel Alfour
Connor Leahy and Gabriel Alfour, AI researchers from Conjecture and authors of "The Compendium," joinus for a critical discussion centered on Artificial Superintelligence (ASI) safety and governance. Drawing from their comprehensive analysis in "The Compendium," they articulate a stark warning about the existential risks inherent in uncontrolled AI development, framing it through the lens of "intelligence domination"—where a sufficiently advanced AI could subordinate humanity, much like humans dominate less intelligent species.
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TRANSCRIPT + REFS + NOTES:
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/p86l75y4o2ii40df5t7no/Compendium.pdf?rlkey=tukczgf3flw133sr9rgss0pnj&dl=0
https://www.thecompendium.ai/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Connor_Leahy
https://www.conjecture.dev/about
https://substack.com/@gabecc
TOC:
1. AI Intelligence and Safety Fundamentals
[00:00:00] 1.1 Understanding Intelligence and AI Capabilities
[00:06:20] 1.2 Emergence of Intelligence and Regulatory Challenges
[00:10:18] 1.3 Human vs Animal Intelligence Debate
[00:18:00] 1.4 AI Regulation and Risk Assessment Approaches
[00:26:14] 1.5 Competing AI Development Ideologies
2. Economic and Social Impact
[00:29:10] 2.1 Labor Market Disruption and Post-Scarcity Scenarios
[00:32:40] 2.2 Institutional Frameworks and Tech Power Dynamics
[00:37:40] 2.3 Ethical Frameworks and AI Governance Debates
[00:40:52] 2.4 AI Alignment Evolution and Technical Challenges
3. Technical Governance Framework
[00:55:07] 3.1 Three Levels of AI Safety: Alignment, Corrigibility, and Boundedness
[00:55:30] 3.2 Challenges of AI System Corrigibility and Constitutional Models
[00:57:35] 3.3 Limitations of Current Boundedness Approaches
[00:59:11] 3.4 Abstract Governance Concepts and Policy Solutions
4. Democratic Implementation and Coordination
[00:59:20] 4.1 Governance Design and Measurement Challenges
[01:00:10] 4.2 Democratic Institutions and Experimental Governance
[01:14:10] 4.3 Political Engagement and AI Safety Advocacy
[01:25:30] 4.4 Practical AI Safety Measures and International Coordination
CORE REFS:
[00:01:45] The Compendium (2023), Leahy et al.
https://pdf.thecompendium.ai/the_compendium.pdf
[00:06:50] Geoffrey Hinton Leaves Google, BBC News
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-65452940
[00:10:00] ARC-AGI, Chollet
https://arcprize.org/arc-agi
[00:13:25] A Brief History of Intelligence, Bennett
https://www.amazon.com/Brief-History-Intelligence-Humans-Breakthroughs/dp/0063286343
[00:25:35] Statement on AI Risk, Center for AI Safety
https://www.safe.ai/work/statement-on-ai-risk
[00:26:15] Machines of Love and Grace, Amodei
https://darioamodei.com/machines-of-loving-grace
[00:26:35] The Techno-Optimist Manifesto, Andreessen
https://a16z.com/the-techno-optimist-manifesto/
[00:31:55] Techno-Feudalism, Varoufakis
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Technofeudalism-Killed-Capitalism-Yanis-Varoufakis/dp/1847927270
[00:42:40] Introducing Superalignment, OpenAI
https://openai.com/index/introducing-superalignment/
[00:47:20] Three Laws of Robotics, Asimov
https://www.britannica.com/topic/Three-Laws-of-Robotics
[00:50:00] Symbolic AI (GOFAI), Haugeland
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Symbolic_artificial_intelligence
[00:52:30] Intent Alignment, Christiano
https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/HEZgGBZTpT4Bov7nH/mapping-the-conceptual-territory-in-ai-existential-safety
[00:55:10] Large Language Model Alignment: A Survey, Jiang et al.
http://arxiv.org/pdf/2309.15025
[00:55:40] Constitutional Checks and Balances, Bok
https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/montesquieu/
<trunc, see PDF>
Connor Leahy - e/acc, AGI and the future.
Connor is the CEO of Conjecture and one of the most famous names in the AI alignment movement. This is the "behind the scenes footage" and bonus Patreon interviews from the day of the Beff Jezos debate, including an interview with Daniel Clothiaux. It's a great insight into Connor's philosophy. At the end there is an unreleased additional interview with Beff.
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Topics:
Externalized cognition and the role of society and culture in human intelligence
The potential for AI systems to develop agency and autonomy
The future of AGI as a complex mixture of various components
The concept of agency and its relationship to power
The importance of coherence in AI systems
The balance between coherence and variance in exploring potential upsides
The role of dynamic, competent, and incorruptible institutions in handling risks and developing technology
Concerns about AI widening the gap between the haves and have-nots
The concept of equal access to opportunity and maintaining dynamism in the system
Leahy's perspective on life as a process that "rides entropy"
The importance of distinguishing between epistemological, decision-theoretic, and aesthetic aspects of morality (inc ref to Hume's Guillotine)
The concept of continuous agency and the idea that the first AGI will be a messy admixture of various components
The potential for AI systems to become more physically embedded in the future
The challenges of aligning AI systems and the societal impacts of AI technologies like ChatGPT and Bing
The importance of humility in the face of complexity when considering the future of AI and its societal implications
Disclaimer: this video is not an endorsement of e/acc or AGI agential existential risk from us - the hosts of MLST consider both of these views to be quite extreme. We seek diverse views on the channel.
00:00:00 Intro
00:00:56 Connor's Philosophy
00:03:53 Office Skit
00:05:08 Connor on e/acc and Beff
00:07:28 Intro to Daniel's Philosophy
00:08:35 Connor on Entropy, Life, and Morality
00:19:10 Connor on London
00:20:21 Connor Office Interview
00:20:46 Friston Patreon Preview
00:21:48 Why Are We So Dumb?
00:23:52 The Voice of the People, the Voice of God / Populism
00:26:35 Mimetics
00:30:03 Governance
00:33:19 Agency
00:40:25 Daniel Interview - Externalised Cognition, Bing GPT, AGI
00:56:29 Beff + Connor Bonus Patreons Interview
Showdown Between e/acc Leader And Doomer - Connor Leahy + Beff Jezos
The world's second-most famous AI doomer Connor Leahy sits down with Beff Jezos, the founder of the e/acc movement debating technology, AI policy, and human values. As the two discuss technology, AI safety, civilization advancement, and the future of institutions, they clash on their opposing perspectives on how we steer humanity towards a more optimal path.
Watch behind the scenes, get early access and join the private Discord by supporting us on Patreon. We have some amazing content going up there with Max Bennett and Kenneth Stanley this week!
https://patreon.com/mlst (public discord)
https://discord.gg/aNPkGUQtc5
https://twitter.com/MLStreetTalk
Post-interview with Beff and Connor: https://www.patreon.com/posts/97905213
Pre-interview with Connor and his colleague Dan Clothiaux: https://www.patreon.com/posts/connor-leahy-and-97631416
Leahy, known for his critical perspectives on AI and technology, challenges Jezos on a variety of assertions related to the accelerationist movement, market dynamics, and the need for regulation in the face of rapid technological advancements. Jezos, on the other hand, provides insights into the e/acc movement's core philosophies, emphasizing growth, adaptability, and the dangers of over-legislation and centralized control in current institutions.
Throughout the discussion, both speakers explore the concept of entropy, the role of competition in fostering innovation, and the balance needed to mediate order and chaos to ensure the prosperity and survival of civilization. They weigh up the risks and rewards of AI, the importance of maintaining a power equilibrium in society, and the significance of cultural and institutional dynamism.
Beff Jezos (Guillaume Verdon):
https://twitter.com/BasedBeffJezos
https://twitter.com/GillVerd
Connor Leahy:
https://twitter.com/npcollapse
YT: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0zxi0xSBOaQ
TOC:
00:00:00 - Intro
00:03:05 - Society library reference
00:03:35 - Debate starts
00:05:08 - Should any tech be banned?
00:20:39 - Leaded Gasoline
00:28:57 - False vacuum collapse method?
00:34:56 - What if there are dangerous aliens?
00:36:56 - Risk tolerances
00:39:26 - Optimizing for growth vs value
00:52:38 - Is vs ought
01:02:29 - AI discussion
01:07:38 - War / global competition
01:11:02 - Open source F16 designs
01:20:37 - Offense vs defense
01:28:49 - Morality / value
01:43:34 - What would Conor do
01:50:36 - Institutions/regulation
02:26:41 - Competition vs. Regulation Dilemma
02:32:50 - Existential Risks and Future Planning
02:41:46 - Conclusion and Reflection
Note from Tim: I baked the chapter metadata into the mp3 file this time, does that help the chapters show up in your app? Let me know. Also I accidentally exported a few minutes of dead audio at the end of the file - sorry about that just skip on when the episode finishes.
#158 Connor Leahy: The Unspoken Risks of Centralizing AI Power
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On episode 158 of Eye on AI, host Craig Smith dives deep into the world of AI safety, governance, and open-source dilemmas with Connor Leahy, CEO of Conjecture, an AI company specializing in AI safety.
Connor, known for his pioneering work in open-source large language models, shares his views on the monopolization of AI technology and the risks of keeping such powerful technology in the hands of a few.
The episode starts with a discussion on the dangers of centralizing AI power, reflecting on OpenAI's situation and the broader implications for AI governance. Connor draws parallels with historical examples, emphasizing the need for widespread governance and responsible AI development. He highlights the importance of creating AI architectures that are understandable and controllable, discussing the challenges in ensuring AI safety in a rapidly evolving field.
We also explore the complexities of AI ethics, touching upon the necessity of policy and regulation in shaping AI's future. We discuss the potential of AI systems, the importance of public understanding and involvement in AI governance, and the role of governments in regulating AI development.
The episode concludes with a thought-provoking reflection on the future of AI and its impact on society, economy, and politics. Connor urges the need for careful consideration and action in the face of AI's unprecedented capabilities, advocating for a more cautious approach to AI development.
Remember to leave a 5-star rating on Spotify and a review on Apple Podcasts if you enjoyed this podcast.
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(00:00) Preview
(00:25) Netsuite by Oracle
(02:42) Introducing Connor Leahy
(06:35) The Mayak Facility: A Historical Parallel
(13:39) Open Source AI: Safety and Risks
(19:31) Flaws of Self-Regulation in AI
(24:30) Connor's Policy Proposals for AI
(31:02) Implementing a Kill Switch in AI Systems
(33:39) The Role of Public Opinion and Policy in AI
(41:00) AI Agents and the Risk of Disinformation
(49:26) Survivorship Bias and AI Risks
(52:43) A Hopeful Outlook on AI and Society
(57:08) Closing Remarks and A word From Our Sponsors
#151 Asa Cooper: How Will We Know If AI Is Fooling Us?
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Welcome to episode 151 of the 'Eye on AI' podcast. In this episode, host Craig Smith sits down with Asa Cooper, a postdoctoral researcher at NYU, who is at the forefront of language model safety.
This episode takes us on a journey through the complexities of AI situational awareness, the potential for consciousness in language models, and the future of AI safety research.
Craig and Asa delve into the nuances of AI situational awareness and its distinction from sentience. Asa, with his rich background in NLP and AI safety from Edinburgh University, shares insights from his post-doc work at NYU, discussing collaborative efforts on a paper that has garnered attention for its take on situational awareness in large language models (LLMs).
We explore the economic drivers behind creating AI with such capabilities and the role of scaling versus algorithmic innovation in achieving this milestone. We also delve into the concept of agency in LLMs, the challenges of post-deployment monitoring, and the effectiveness of current measures in detecting situational awareness.
To wrap things off, we break down the importance of source trustworthiness and the model's ability to discern reliable information, a critical aspect of AI safety and functionality, so make sure to watch till the end.
Craig Smith Twitter: https://twitter.com/craigss
Eye on A.I. Twitter: https://twitter.com/EyeOn_AI
(00:00) Preview and Introduction
(02:30) Asa's NLP Expertise and the Safety of Language Models
(06:05) Breaking Down AI's Situational Awareness
(13:44) Evolution of AI: Predictive Models to AI Coworkers
(20:29) New Frontier in AI Development?
(27:14) Measuring AI's Awareness
(33:49) Innovative Experiments with LLMs
(40:51) The Consequences of Detecting Situational Awareness in AI
(44:07) How To Train AI On Trusted Sources
(49:52) What Is The Future of AI Training?
(56:35) AI Safety: Public Concerns and the Path Forward**
Can We Develop Truly Beneficial AI? George Hotz and Connor Leahy
Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/mlst
Discord: https://discord.gg/ESrGqhf5CB
George Hotz and Connor Leahy discuss the crucial challenge of developing beneficial AI that is aligned with human values. Hotz believes truly aligned AI is impossible, while Leahy argues it's a solvable technical challenge.
Hotz contends that AI will inevitably pursue power, but distributing AI widely would prevent any single AI from dominating. He advocates open-sourcing AI developments to democratize access. Leahy counters that alignment is necessary to ensure AIs respect human values. Without solving alignment, general AI could ignore or harm humans.
They discuss whether AI's tendency to seek power stems from optimization pressure or human-instilled goals. Leahy argues goal-seeking behavior naturally emerges while Hotz believes it reflects human values. Though agreeing on AI's potential dangers, they differ on solutions. Hotz favors accelerating AI progress and distributing capabilities while Leahy wants safeguards put in place.
While acknowledging risks like AI-enabled weapons, they debate whether broad access or restrictions better manage threats. Leahy suggests limiting dangerous knowledge, but Hotz insists openness checks government overreach. They concur that coordination and balance of power are key to navigating the AI revolution. Both eagerly anticipate seeing whose ideas prevail as AI progresses.
Transcript and notes: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1smkmBY7YqcrhejdbqJOoZHq-59LZVwu-DNdM57IgFcU/edit?usp=sharing
Note: this is not a normal episode i.e. the hosts are not part of the debate (and for the record don't agree with Connor or George).
TOC:
[00:00:00] Introduction to George Hotz and Connor Leahy
[00:03:10] George Hotz's Opening Statement: Intelligence and Power
[00:08:50] Connor Leahy's Opening Statement: Technical Problem of Alignment and Coordination
[00:15:18] George Hotz's Response: Nature of Cooperation and Individual Sovereignty
[00:17:32] Discussion on individual sovereignty and defense
[00:18:45] Debate on living conditions in America versus Somalia
[00:21:57] Talk on the nature of freedom and the aesthetics of life
[00:24:02] Discussion on the implications of coordination and conflict in politics
[00:33:41] Views on the speed of AI development / hard takeoff
[00:35:17] Discussion on potential dangers of AI
[00:36:44] Discussion on the effectiveness of current AI
[00:40:59] Exploration of potential risks in technology
[00:45:01] Discussion on memetic mutation risk
[00:52:36] AI alignment and exploitability
[00:53:13] Superintelligent AIs and the assumption of good intentions
[00:54:52] Humanity’s inconsistency and AI alignment
[00:57:57] Stability of the world and the impact of superintelligent AIs
[01:02:30] Personal utopia and the limitations of AI alignment
[01:05:10] Proposed regulation on limiting the total number of flops
[01:06:20] Having access to a powerful AI system
[01:18:00] Power dynamics and coordination issues with AI
[01:25:44] Humans vs AI in Optimization
[01:27:05] The Impact of AI's Power Seeking Behavior
[01:29:32] A Debate on the Future of AI
177 - AI is a Ticking Time Bomb with Connor Leahy
AI is here to stay, but at what cost? Connor Leahy is the CEO of Conjecture, a mission-driven organization that’s trying to make the future of AI go as well as it possibly can. He is also a Co-Founder of EleutherAI, an open-source AI research non-profit lab.
In today’s episode, Connor and David cover: 1) The intuitive arguments behind the AI Safety debate 2) The two defining categories of ways AI could end all of humanity 3) The major players in the race towards AGI, and why they all seem to be ideologically motivated, rather than financially motivated 4) Why the progress of AI power is based on TWO exponential curves 5) Why Connor thinks government regulation is the easiest and most effective way of buying us time
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----------- TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro 3:12 AI Alignment Importance 9:40 Finding Neutrality 14:16 AI Doom Scenarios 21:06 How AI Misalignment Evolves 25:56 The State of AI Alignment 32:07 The AI Race Trap 41:49 Motivations of the AI Race 56:18 AI Regulation Efforts 1:14:28 How AI Regulation & Crypto Compare 1:21:44 AI Teachings of Human Coordination 1:36:53 Closing & Disclaimers
----------- RESOURCES
Connor Leahy https://twitter.com/NPCollapse
Conjecture Research https://www.conjecture.dev/research/
EleutherAI Discord https://discord.com/invite/zBGx3azzUn
Stop AGI https://www.stop.ai/
----------- Related Episodes:
We’re All Gonna Die with Eliezer Yudkowsky https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gA1sNLL6yg4
How We Prevent the AI’s from Killing us with Paul Christiano https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GyFkWb903aU
----------- Not financial or tax advice. This channel is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. This video is not tax advice. Talk to your accountant. Do your own research.
Disclosure. From time-to-time I may add links in this newsletter to products I use. I may receive commission if you make a purchase through one of these links. Additionally, the Bankless writers hold crypto assets. See our investment disclosures here: https://www.bankless.com/disclosures
Joscha Bach and Connor Leahy on AI risk
Support us! https://www.patreon.com/mlst
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The first 10 mins of audio from Joscha isn't great, it improves after.
Transcript and longer summary: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1TUJhlSVbrHf2vWoe6p7xL5tlTK_BGZ140QqqTudF8UI/edit?usp=sharing
Dr. Joscha Bach argued that general intelligence emerges from civilization, not individuals. Given our biological constraints, humans cannot achieve a high level of general intelligence on our own. Bach believes AGI may become integrated into all parts of the world, including human minds and bodies. He thinks a future where humans and AGI harmoniously coexist is possible if we develop a shared purpose and incentive to align. However, Bach is uncertain about how AI progress will unfold or which scenarios are most likely.
Bach argued that global control and regulation of AI is unrealistic. While regulation may address some concerns, it cannot stop continued progress in AI. He believes individuals determine their own values, so "human values" cannot be formally specified and aligned across humanity. For Bach, the possibility of building beneficial AGI is exciting but much work is still needed to ensure a positive outcome.
Connor Leahy believes we have more control over the future than the default outcome might suggest. With sufficient time and effort, humanity could develop the technology and coordination to build a beneficial AGI. However, the default outcome likely leads to an undesirable scenario if we do not actively work to build a better future. Leahy thinks finding values and priorities most humans endorse could help align AI, even if individuals disagree on some values.
Leahy argued a future where humans and AGI harmoniously coexist is ideal but will require substantial work to achieve. While regulation faces challenges, it remains worth exploring. Leahy believes limits to progress in AI exist but we are unlikely to reach them before humanity is at risk. He worries even modestly superhuman intelligence could disrupt the status quo if misaligned with human values and priorities.
Overall, Bach and Leahy expressed optimism about the possibility of building beneficial AGI but believe we must address risks and challenges proactively. They agreed substantial uncertainty remains around how AI will progress and what scenarios are most plausible. But developing a shared purpose between humans and AI, improving coordination and control, and finding human values to help guide progress could all improve the odds of a beneficial outcome. With openness to new ideas and willingness to consider multiple perspectives, continued discussions like this one could help ensure the future of AI is one that benefits and inspires humanity.
TOC:
00:00:00 - Introduction and Background
00:02:54 - Different Perspectives on AGI
00:13:59 - The Importance of AGI
00:23:24 - Existential Risks and the Future of Humanity
00:36:21 - Coherence and Coordination in Society
00:40:53 - Possibilities and Future of AGI
00:44:08 - Coherence and alignment
01:08:32 - The role of values in AI alignment
01:18:33 - The future of AGI and merging with AI
01:22:14 - The limits of AI alignment
01:23:06 - The scalability of intelligence
01:26:15 - Closing statements and future prospects
E26: [Bonus Episode] Connor Leahy on AGI, GPT-4, and Cognitive Emulation w/ FLI Podcast
[Bonus Episode] Future of Life Institute Podcast host Gus Docker interviews Conjecture CEO Connor Leahy to discuss GPT-4, magic, cognitive emulation, demand for human-like AI, and aligning superintelligence. You can read more about Connor's work at https://conjecture.dev
Future of Life Institute is the organization that recently published an open letter calling for a six-month pause on training new AI systems. FLI was founded by Jann Tallinn who we interviewed in Episode 16 of The Cognitive Revolution.
We think their podcast is excellent. They frequently interview critical thinkers in AI like Neel Nanda, Ajeya Cotra, and Connor Leahy - an episode we found particularly fascinating and is airing for our audience today.
The FLI Podcast also recently interviewed Nathan Labenz for a 2-part episode:
https://futureoflife.org/podcast/nathan-labenz-on-how-ai-will-transform-the-economy/
SUBSCRIBE: Future of Life Institute Podcast:
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/future-of-life-institute-podcast/id1170991978
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2Op1WO3gwVwCrYHg4eoGyP
--
We're hiring across the board at Turpentine and for Erik's personal team on other projects he's incubating. He's hiring a Chief of Staff, EA, Head of Special Projects, Investment Associate, and more. For a list of JDs, check out: eriktorenberg.com.
RECOMMENDED PODCAST:
The HR industry is at a crossroads. What will it take to construct the next generation of incredible businesses – and where can people leaders have the most business impact? Hosts Nolan Church and Kelli Dragovich have been through it all, the highs and the lows – IPOs, layoffs, executive turnover, board meetings, culture changes, and more. With a lineup of industry vets and experts, Nolan and Kelli break down the nitty-gritty details, trade offs, and dynamics of constructing high performing companies. Through unfiltered conversations that can only happen between seasoned practitioners, Kelli and Nolan dive deep into the kind of leadership-level strategy that often happens behind closed doors. Check out the first episode with the architect of Netflix’s culture deck Patty McCord.
https://link.chtbl.com/hrheretics
TIMESTAMPS:
(00:00) Episode introduction
(01:55) GPT-4
(18:30) "Magic" in machine learning
(29:43) Cognitive emulations
(40:00) Machine learning VS explainability
(49:50) Human data = human AI?
(1:01:50) Analogies for cognitive emulations
(1:28:10) Demand for human-like AI
(1:33:50) Aligning superintelligence
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If you'd like to listen to Part 2 of this interview with Connor Leahy, you can head here:
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/connor-leahy-on-the-state-of-ai-and-alignment-research/id1170991978?i=1000609972001
#122 Connor Leahy: Unveiling the Darker Side of AI
Welcome to Eye on AI, the podcast that explores the latest developments, challenges, and opportunities in the world of artificial intelligence. In this episode, we sit down with Connor Leahy, an AI researcher and co-founder of EleutherAI, to discuss the darker side of AI. Connor shares his insights on the current negative trajectory of AI, the challenges of keeping superintelligence in a sandbox, and the potential negative implications of large language models such as GPT4. He also discusses the problem of releasing AI to the public and the need for regulatory intervention to ensure alignment with human values. Throughout the podcast, Connor highlights the work of Conjecture, a project focused on advancing alignment in AI, and shares his perspectives on the stages of research and development of this critical issue. If you're interested in understanding the ethical and social implications of AI and the efforts to ensure alignment with human values, this podcast is for you. So join us as we delve into the darker side of AI with Connor Leahy on Eye on AI. (00:00) Preview
(00:48) Connor Leahy's background with EleutherAI & Conjecture
(03:05) Large language models applications with EleutherAI
(06:51) The current negative trajectory of AI
(08:46) How difficult is keeping super intelligence in a sandbox?
(12:35) How AutoGPT uses ChatGPT to run autonomously
(15:15) How GPT4 can be used out of context & negatively
(19:30) How OpenAI gives access to nefarious activities
(26:39) The problem with the race for AGI
(28:51) The goal of Conjecture and advancing alignment
(31:04) The problem with releasing AI to the public
(33:35) FTC complaint & government intervention in AI
(38:13) Technical implementation to fix the alignment issue
(44:34) How CoEm is fixing the alignment issue
(53:30) Stages of research and development of Conjecture
Craig Smith Twitter: https://twitter.com/craigss
Eye on A.I. Twitter: https://twitter.com/EyeOn_AI
#112 AVOIDING AGI APOCALYPSE - CONNOR LEAHY
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In this podcast with the legendary Connor Leahy (CEO Conjecture) recorded in Dec 2022, we discuss various topics related to artificial intelligence (AI), including AI alignment, the success of ChatGPT, the potential threats of artificial general intelligence (AGI), and the challenges of balancing research and product development at his company, Conjecture. He emphasizes the importance of empathy, dehumanizing our thinking to avoid anthropomorphic biases, and the value of real-world experiences in learning and personal growth. The conversation also covers the Orthogonality Thesis, AI preferences, the mystery of mode collapse, and the paradox of AI alignment.
Connor Leahy expresses concern about the rapid development of AI and the potential dangers it poses, especially as AI systems become more powerful and integrated into society. He argues that we need a better understanding of AI systems to ensure their safe and beneficial development. The discussion also touches on the concept of "futuristic whack-a-mole," where futurists predict potential AGI threats, and others try to come up with solutions for those specific scenarios. However, the problem lies in the fact that there could be many more scenarios that neither party can think of, especially when dealing with a system that's smarter than humans.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/connor-j-leahy/https://twitter.com/NPCollapse
Interviewer: Dr. Tim Scarfe (Innovation CTO @ XRAI Glass https://xrai.glass/)
TOC:
The success of ChatGPT and its impact on the AI field [00:00:00]
Subjective experience [00:15:12]
AI Architectural discussion including RLHF [00:18:04]
The paradox of AI alignment and the future of AI in society [00:31:44]
The impact of AI on society and politics [00:36:11]
Future shock levels and the challenges of predicting the future [00:45:58]
Long termism and existential risk [00:48:23]
Consequentialism vs. deontology in rationalism [00:53:39]
The Rationalist Community and its Challenges [01:07:37]
AI Alignment and Conjecture [01:14:15]
Orthogonality Thesis and AI Preferences [01:17:01]
Challenges in AI Alignment [01:20:28]
Mechanistic Interpretability in Neural Networks [01:24:54]
Building Cleaner Neural Networks [01:31:36]
Cognitive horizons / The problem with rapid AI development [01:34:52]
Founding Conjecture and raising funds [01:39:36]
Inefficiencies in the market and seizing opportunities [01:45:38]
Charisma, authenticity, and leadership in startups [01:52:13]
Autistic culture and empathy [01:55:26]
Learning from real-world experiences [02:01:57]
Technical empathy and transhumanism [02:07:18]
Moral status and the limits of empathy [02:15:33]
Anthropomorphic Thinking and Consequentialism [02:17:42]
Conjecture: Balancing Research and Product Development [02:20:37]
Epistemology Team at Conjecture [02:31:07]
Interpretability and Deception in AGI [02:36:23]
Futuristic whack-a-mole and predicting AGI threats [02:38:27]
Refs:
1. OpenAI's ChatGPT: https://chat.openai.com/
2. The Mystery of Mode Collapse (Article): https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/t9svvNPNmFf5Qa3TA/mysteries-of-mode-collapse
3. The Rationalist Guide to the Galaxy https://www.amazon.co.uk/Does-Not-Hate-You-Superintelligence/dp/1474608795
5. Alfred Korzybski: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alfred_Korzybski
6. Instrumental Convergence: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instrumental_convergence
7. Orthogonality Thesis: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orthogonality_thesis
8. Brian Tomasik's Essays on Reducing Suffering: https://reducing-suffering.org/
9. Epistemological Framing for AI Alignment Research: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Y4YHTBziAscS5WPN7/epistemological-framing-for-ai-alignment-research
10. How to Defeat Mind readers: https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/EhAbh2pQoAXkm9yor/circumventing-interpretability-how-to-defeat-mind-readers
11. Society of mind: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Society-Mind-Marvin-Minsky/dp/0671607405
Large Language Models & GPT-J
Connor Leahy, one of the minds behind Eleuther AI and its open-source large language model, GPT-J, talks about the building such models and their implications for the future.
#031 WE GOT ACCESS TO GPT-3! (With Gary Marcus, Walid Saba and Connor Leahy)
In this special edition, Dr. Tim Scarfe, Yannic Kilcher and Keith Duggar speak with Gary Marcus and Connor Leahy about GPT-3. We have all had a significant amount of time to experiment with GPT-3 and show you demos of it in use and the considerations.
Note that this podcast version is significantly truncated, watch the youtube version for the TOC and experiments with GPT-3 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iccd86vOz3w
AI Alignment & AGI Fire Alarm - Connor Leahy
This week Dr. Tim Scarfe, Alex Stenlake and Yannic Kilcher speak with AGI and AI alignment specialist Connor Leahy a machine learning engineer from Aleph Alpha and founder of EleutherAI.
Connor believes that AI alignment is philosophy with a deadline and that we are on the precipice, the stakes are astronomical. AI is important, and it will go wrong by default. Connor thinks that the singularity or intelligence explosion is near. Connor says that AGI is like climate change but worse, even harder problems, even shorter deadline and even worse consequences for the future. These problems are hard, and nobody knows what to do about them.
00:00:00 Introduction to AI alignment and AGI fire alarm
00:15:16 Main Show Intro
00:18:38 Different schools of thought on AI safety
00:24:03 What is intelligence?
00:25:48 AI Alignment
00:27:39 Humans dont have a coherent utility function
00:28:13 Newcomb's paradox and advanced decision problems
00:34:01 Incentives and behavioural economics
00:37:19 Prisoner's dilemma
00:40:24 Ayn Rand and game theory in politics and business
00:44:04 Instrumental convergence and orthogonality thesis
00:46:14 Utility functions and the Stop button problem
00:55:24 AI corrigibality - self alignment
00:56:16 Decision theory and stability / wireheading / robust delegation
00:59:30 Stop button problem
01:00:40 Making the world a better place
01:03:43 Is intelligence a search problem?
01:04:39 Mesa optimisation / humans are misaligned AI
01:06:04 Inner vs outer alignment / faulty reward functions
01:07:31 Large corporations are intelligent and have no stop function
01:10:21 Dutch booking / what is rationality / decision theory
01:16:32 Understanding very powerful AIs
01:18:03 Kolmogorov complexity
01:19:52 GPT-3 - is it intelligent, are humans even intelligent?
01:28:40 Scaling hypothesis
01:29:30 Connor thought DL was dead in 2017
01:37:54 Why is GPT-3 as intelligent as a human
01:44:43 Jeff Hawkins on intelligence as compression and the great lookup table
01:50:28 AI ethics related to AI alignment?
01:53:26 Interpretability
01:56:27 Regulation
01:57:54 Intelligence explosion
Discord: https://discord.com/invite/vtRgjbM
EleutherAI: https://www.eleuther.ai
Twitter: https://twitter.com/npcollapse
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/connor-j-leahy/
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