Inside the First Quant-Driven VC Fund | Nuno Goncalves Pedro, Chamaeleon
Nuno Goncalves Pedro is the Founder and Managing Partner at Chamaeleon. He won't describe it this way, but I'd call Chamaeleon something like "The RenTech of VC." Chamaeleon is built around its proprietary data platform, Mantis, which borrows tools like factor analysis from public-market investors and operates more like a quant hedge fund than a traditional venture firm. We talk through a bunch of data that cuts against the common narrative in venture, including why repeat founders aren't always the safer bet, why sub-$100m funds catch the majority of fund-returning deals, and why 10x might be a better target than 100x. Thank you to Numeral, Flex, Amplitude, and Merge for supporting this episode. Numeral: The end-to-end platform for sales tax and compliance https://www.numeral.com Flex: Get premium banking and a net 60 day credit card at 0% APY https://home.flex.one/referral/bananacapital Amplitude: AI analytics, all you have to do is ask https://www.amplitude.com Merge: Every modal. One API. Total control. Check out Merge’s Agent Handler. https://www.merge.dev/agent-handler/employees Timestamps: (1:00) When 1st time founders outperform serial entrepreneurs (8:05) Mantis: factor-driven quant model for VC (18:33) Why most VC’s are not data-driven (22:28) Top 1% VC fund performance (27:41) Early customer sentiment stronger success indicator than PMF or Team (34:09) Importance of co-investors on performance (39:42) Sub-$100M funds capture 70% of fund-returning deals each year (43:53) The Neolab AI bubble (52:16) Marketing games that VC’s play (55:22) Most investors are not high conviction (56:43) Startups not raising for at least 3 years are 5x less likely to succeed. 10x less likely at 5 years. (1:00:19) Emerging managers have lowest LP interest in the last 15 years (1:11:19) LP capital is much less concentrated than in 2011 (1:16:28) The importance of remaining relevant (1:21:01) You must lean into your unique edge as an investor (1:23:18) Pros/Cons of an alumni network venture strategy (1:28:29) Specialist funds outperform generalists (with a catch) (1:35:22) The data says go for 10x, not 100x returns (1:41:41) Should you start or join a VC firm today? (1:48:07) Nuno’s collection of 270+ phones (1:53:16) Racing cars (and winning championships) Referenced Chamaeleon: https://www.chamaeleon.vc/ Tech Deciphered Podcast https://decipheredshow.com/ Say It With Charts: https://www.amazon.com/Say-Charts-Executives-Visual-Communication/dp/007136997X How To Lie With Charts: https://www.amazon.com/How-Charts-Gerald-Everett-Jones/dp/1419651439 Redmagic Phone: https://redmagic.gg/ ASUS Rog phone: https://rog.asus.com/phones/rog-phone-model/ Follow Nuno LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ngpedro/ Follow Turner Twitter: https://twitter.com/TurnerNovak LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/turnernovak Subscribe to my newsletter to get every episode + the transcript in your inbox every week: https://www.thespl.it/